Assorted New Year’s Musings
I’ve been away, thanks to a combination of work and family duties that I can’t believe I even bring up in light of Dave’s recent post. People often used to malign sabermetrically-oriented writers like Dave as automatons; robots more interested in numbers than the grand arc of a baseball season, or more interested in nitpicking a hit-and-run than in the compelling story of a single game. I’d like to think that Dave’s had a major hand in discrediting that old saw. I’d rather read Dave’s writing here or at Fangraphs than just about anything, and it’s not because his posts are laden with math and statistics. On the other hand, Dave has maintained a blogging pace that puts most professional bloggers to shame, and he’s done it while whipping cancer. I needed a break because “work is hard.” In sum, I think it’s time to bring back the “Dave is a robot” meme.
1: The big story this off-season has been the Rangers and Angels leveraging new TV deals to make a splash on the free-agent (or posting) market. The Rangers replaced CJ Wilson with Yu Darvish while the Angels cashed in their TV revenue for the top free agent hitter and pitcher. Beyond the sheer oddity of a team in the AL West outbidding everyone for three of the year’s most sought-after targets, I’m stunned at how well-timed both the Rangers and the Angels spending sprees are. The Angels new TV contract allowed them to spend more money now, and the addition of a second wild card meant that such spending had a greater chance of being rewarded with a playoff berth. The Rangers built a formidable farm system, then very quickly augmented that homegrown core when their TV contract made such expenditures possible. The M’s renegotiated their contract with FOX Sports (now ROOT Sports) in 2007, and spent the proceeds on the likes of Jeff Weaver, Miguel Batista, and trading for Jose Vidro/Horacio Ramirez. They can renegotiate their current deal in 2015 (or wait until it expires in 2017), but it’s not clear where they’re going to be vis a vis the Angels and Rangers at that time. This isn’t about needing a franchise player or a middle-of-the-order-bat to build around – the M’s need to determine what they currently *have* in order to spend any new money wisely. Is Kyle Seager a starting IF for a contender? Is Caspar Wells a first-division corner outfielder? Is Justin Smoak good?
2: Dave’s absolutely right that a single player doesn’t win a division, and that the M’s should avoid a panic-addled contract offer solely to keep up with the suddenly flush Joneses in their division. Throwing money at a free-agent now may not bring a playoff run, may not bring in fans, and may be a burden down the road. The M’s don’t need to respond, however much it may feel like they need to. Unfortunately, that’s the problem. The fact that the Rangers and Angels seem to have made important acquisitions is almost irrelevant; the problem predates the offseason.
You’ve all seen the ZiPS projections, and Dave’s recap of the ugliness therein. So, uh, how about the CAIRO projections? Any better? Yes and no. ZiPS had three average hitters in the M’s organization in Dustin Ackley, Mike Carp and Vinnie Catricala. CAIRO has Ackley right at average (2 WAR, with a much uglier slash line of .250/.337/.379), Catricala a step back at 1.6 WAR (.233/.301/.360) and Mike Carp as simultaneously the best hitter and least valuable player in this troika (.252/.319/.419). The position adjustment hurts Carp, and the system doesn’t see much in Ackley’s minor league track record to justify a rosier projection. Ichiro looks better in CAIRO, but Kyle Seager looks worse. Smoak/Gutierrez look virtually identical (horrific) in both.
On the face of it, the offense looks even worse than ZiPS – but are the M’s a clear 100 loss team? Well, no. The pitching side of the ledger is better, as CAIRO thinks a bit more of guys like Jason Vargas, Erasmo Ramirez and Blake Beavan. Add it all up, and the M’s come in with a 77 win projection (thanks to a stingy runs allowed of 668, comparable to last year’s 675), and beat out the rebuilding Oakland A’s.
3: So, about those rebuilding A’s… The A’s response to the Angels/Rangers arms race has been to sell off some of their assets, making a young team even younger. Gone are Gio Gonzalez, Andrew Bailey and Trevor Cahill, in return for an army of prospects including Jarrod Parker, AJ Cole, Tommy Milone, Derek Norris, Josh Reddick and Colin Cowgill. I don’t think these were strictly reactionary moves, but the A’s apparently believed that they didn’t have the flexibility to add offense given what they’d committed to Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Kurt Suzuki (not to mention what they’d have to pay Gonzalez/Bailey in arbitration). Without such an influx, they couldn’t keep up with the Rangers and Angels. No, they didn’t have much committed to those players, but these are the A’s, and so they turned them in for another group of talented, pre-arb players. I get it; this may be the best the A’s can do until their situation improves (new stadium, better TV deal, new ownership, move to San Jose), but it’s got to be frustrating for everyone involved. The team developed some good young pitching, and now the best they can do is swap them out for prospects and hope – hope that Jarrod Parker’s Tommy John surgery went well, that Cowgill can be a major league starter and not a fourth OF, that Tommy Milone’s fringy stuff plays in the AL West, etc.
As bad as that sounds, the A’s at least have enough valuable assets that they can make moves like this. They see their window from 2012-2014 closing, and they’re able to acquire some pieces for 2015 instead. That sounds like kicking the can down the road, but if they’re actually able to relocate the can from Oakland to San Jose, they could conceivably add payroll and potentially negotiate a new TV deal of their own (everyone’s doing it). They’re in a better position than many teams, though I’m sure some A’s fans are growing sick of hearing that. The A’s system had been a little thin, with the stumbles of Chris Carter and Michael Taylor, but with Michael Choice, Grant Green, Sonny Gray and now Parker, Cole, and Norris, there’s a bit more for A’s fans to dream on. Still, pushing their window out means increasing risk. The A’s are now hoping that a pitching prospect (danger) develops as expected following his Tommy John surgery (DANGER!). Their prized SS prospect is now a sort-of-prized OF prospect and their top overall prospect has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game. I understand it, and I think I might’ve done the same in David Forst/Billy Beane’s shoes, but attempting to compete in 2015 or so means battling four teams, not three (yes, I know one of them is the Astros, but still) and it means potentially facing three teams with lucrative TV contracts, not two. That there’s no alternative doesn’t make it any easier.
4: As Jeff Sullivan summarizes here, the Rangers TV deal was originally reported to be $3 billion over 20 years, a figure that was subsequently reported to be more like $1.5-1.6 billion. The Angels deal was also supposed to be $3 billion, and was then dialed back to between $2-2.5 billion. I’ve not seen the contracts, but I find it sort of bizarre that so much of the reporting on these deals could’ve been off by so much.
Maury Brown’s post ($)at B-Pro suggests that maybe they weren’t. “In speaking with two sources that were close to the negotiations on the television deal yesterday, they say that the original figure of $3 billion is closer to the truth,” he writes, implying that “escalators” in the deal might account for the variance. These are unnamed “sources” of course, but then, that’s all we’ve ever had. We had “baseball officials” talking about $3 billion, and then we got “assorted media sources” saying it was more like $1.6 billion. It’s difficult to know what’s accurate, and it’s frustrating that these deals are so opaque. If there are escalators or incentives, can someone help a baseball fan out and tell us what they are? These sorts of incentives make all sorts of sense, and I can imagine that they’ve been a part of such contracts for a while now. What I don’t get is why this topic is the province of dueling unnamed sources and expert witnesses and not a matter of public record.
5: For whatever reason, Dave’s post about Jeff Francis immediately made me think of Allen Iverson.
I mean listen, we’re sitting here talking about Francis, not competing, not a revamped offense, not Darvish, but we’re talking about Francis. Not going out there and competing for every game like it’s our last, but we’re talking about Francis, man. How silly is that?
Now I know that I’m supposed to lead by example and all that but I’m not shoving Jeff aside like he don’t mean anything. I know incremental improvement’s important, I honestly do, but we’re talking about Francis. We’re talking about Francis man. We’re talking about Francis. We’re talking about Francis. We’re not talking about the AL West. We’re talking about Francis. When you come to the arena, and you see the M’s hit, you’ve seen ’em try and hit, you’ve seen them give everything they’ve got and score 550 a year, but we’re talking about Francis right now.
6: Happy new year’s to every M’s fan (and baseball fan) out there. I find myself counting the days to spring training like I’m 11 years old, which is strange, because the M’s project to be about as good as the M’s team did when I was 11 years old. I don’t need much from the M’s in 2012, I just need something to replace the memories of a season that began with the passing of Dave Niehaus, saw the M’s bat at historically terrible levels for the second consecutive year, and was capped by the murder of an M’s prospect. As bad as 2010 was, I just don’t want to think about 2011 for a while. Here’s to new things.
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No offense Marc, but your #6 will only get people who want Fielder at all costs to chime in with, “SEE! THAT’S WHY WE NEED FIELDER!”
I’m not accepting mediocrity when I am in the minority who think signing Fielder no matter what isn’t a good idea. But I can be accused of believing in the process to a fault.
Speaking of television contracts, why don’t more rich teams form their own networks, a la Yankees, instead of sharing the revenues with Fox or Comcast?
The Yankees basically have their own TV channel, Celadus. That’s where a lot of their revenue comes from.
The returns pitchers are getting on the market makes me want to look into trading Pineda.
The Mariners don’t strike me as the type of organization that would form their own cable network. I just don’t see it happening.
“The returns pitchers are getting on the market makes me want to look into trading _____……”
No, not Pineda……Wait for it…….Felix!
If the “minority” dosn’t think signing Fielder would help this team and the packages teams are getting for pitchers right now, why wouldn’t the incredible package the M’s would get for The King help us in the not too distant future? If the team isn’t committed to wining now, but in a few years from now, dosn’t this make perfect sense? If Cliff Lee got us Smoak, Felix could bring us both Stanton and Morrison! (we’ll… maybe not, just speculating. But most thought Smoak was off limits too, including the writers here!)
Let the rotten tomatoes and eggs be thrown now! Just let it be known that I’m not the only one (even our beloved Harold Reynolds agrees) that thinks this is what’s best for the Mariners right now.
Any player is available for the right price. In most situations, Felix is worth more to the M’s than to the potential trading partner, however.
The reason not to trade Felix is that (1) if it ever becomes necessary to trade him in two years, the M’s will still get a shit-ton in return for him, (2) if the M’s prospects pan out, the M’s will be a frightening team to face in the playoffs, (3) there’s always the possibility to extend him and (4) the Mariners will still have Felix Hernandez!
There’s zero reason to rush it.
I know it has been pointed out ad infinitum, and I am not saying it because we should or should not sign Prince, but the TOTAL WAR for Mariners position players in 2011 was 5, and remember that that includes the “defense”.
2: Dave’s absolutely right that a single player doesn’t win a division, and that the M’s should avoid a panic-addled contract offer solely to keep up with the suddenly flush Joneses in their division. Throwing money at a free-agent now may not bring a playoff run, may not bring in fans, and may be a burden down the road.
I don’t get why it’s deemed necessary here to continually imply that those who support an attempt to sign Prince Fielder are panic-stricken fools or the need for strawman arguments to discredit them as complete idiots.
I’m pretty sure that the majority of those in favor of signing Fielder:
(a) know that the team needs to start winning before the fans will come back
(b) realize that there are no guarantees that a Fielder signing would lead to a playoff run
(c) understand that the contract could potentially become burdensome down the road
(d) know beyond a doubt that the Mariners need more than one bat in order to compete for a World Series title
(e) presume that Jack Z would continue to attempt to upgrade the talent around Fielder through the draft, international signings, trades, and free agency just as he’s doing now.
The owners of the Mariners are not going broke as the recent estimates about the value of the franchise illustrates. An intelligent argument can be made that the team does have the resources to sign Fielder AND continue to upgrade the rest of the team at the same time, especially since the team’s payroll is about $16M below what Bavasi had to work with and there is nothing nothing on the books past 2015.
A Fielder signing certainly wouldn’t hamstring Jack Z from acquiring Jeff Francis, Casey McGehee or any of the other cheap acquisitions that are promoted here at USS Mariner, nor would it prevent him from either trading Michael Pineda for prospects or extending him. It may well be argued that signing Fielder is not the best use of the team’s resources but you can make that case without implying that those who disagree are panic-stricken children and/or idiots.
Jack Z has made an offer to Fielder. Yet everyone here seems to brush it off, as if it didn’t happen, and that signing Fielder is still a bad idea.
How is it that when Jack Z tries to sign Fielder, and implies he will not trade Pineda for anything, everyone on USSM wants to trade Pineda, not sign Fielder, and still act like they believe in Jack Z’s plan?
Which is it? Do you trust Jack Z’s plan, or don’t you?
Do we really know his plan? Or are we speculating?
Obviously Fielder is a good signing for the right amount of money – the key element is how much is the “right” amount. $1 Million a year would be great, $50 Million per year would probably beggar the team long term. How much Fielder (i.e. Boras)will require is unknown to anybody but a select few who I doubt includes anybody writing or commenting here.
I’m with you Valencia – I don’t want to trade Felix, Pineda, Hultzen, Paxton, Walker, Ramirez or Vargas let alone the outfielders we have collected. This is not a team who will compete in 2012 by quick fixes. We either trust Jack Z to do the best he can or give up and support another team.
All the M’s blogs seem to do is spend hours compiling lists of trade targets we think will help. Let the guy manage and judge him accordingly at the end of a fair period. In my view this means Jack has 2012 and 2013 to work with before we should become critics.
Most of the MSM (Baker, Brock/Salk, etc.) says hi.
Mariner news has been slow for a while and some people make a living (or part of it) off their blog so it is something to write about.
@valencia-
I would guess that most people here know that when Jack says Felix or Pineda is not available, it is an attempt at leverage. He probably isn’t interested in trading Pineda (and especially not Felix), but for the right price, it’s worth listening if nothing else. Maybe the only player actually being shopped, is Figgins.
Nobody here (or very few anyway) are completely against signing Fielder. It’s the price-tag they’re concerned about -how it will affect other moves, both now and later. I think most people here do believe in Jacks plan(s) and trust that most of the moves he makes will be the best that he could pull for the team, both short and long term.
Right now, everything is speculation. If he somehow pulls off signing Fielder to a reasonable contract that doesn’t hurt the team making other moves, you wont hear too many complaints. In fact, you’ll probably hear people praising him. His moves so far, seem to be popular with the majority of the USSM crowd this off-season.
rsrobinson,
I agree. I believe Fielder would be a great addition as well. Those who do not want to sign him generally do seem to carry an air of superiority to those who are interested.
I’m not even saying I’m interested, but I think there are valid reasons for aggressively pursuing him and there are valid reasons for letting another team go down Boras’ rabbit hole.
@Valencia
I can see your point. Often (and especially) on USSMariner part of the argument for a certain move (or NON move) contains insinuation that holding the opposing point of view is a sure sign of stupidity. Maybe it’s a blog thing? Because you see that often by the commenters on most internet blogs, but not so often by the actual blog writers themselves. (see: Seattle Times readers’ comments)
Although I think it’s a unique situation in the USSMariner instance, because almost ALL of the non-saber-worshippers treat folks like Dave and Derek as pencil-pack wearing, Hewlett Packard calculator nerds who have no business in sports. (I think that was part of the excitement in seeing Dave get brought into the Baseball Writers association– it showed that traditional folks are getting beyond the stereotypes, and taking saber guys seriously.)
So there’s a certain hurdle you have to leap everytime you try to make a point against traditional baseball thinking. And sometimes the best leap involves a bit of defensive posturing, to get completely over the daily “meh” of folks who are set in their way and don’t want to hear the contrarians, despite an insurmountable pile of evidence they might be holding. (Looking at YOU Geoff Baker!)
My only real complaint with signing Fielder at this point is that it’s a “Boras” situation… He ALWAYS drags these out to the last minute, without blinking. And given the moves we’ve made so far this offseason, we’re obviously knee deep in the Fielder tides and waiting to see what happens– which means NOTHING ELSE is happening yet. It’s starting to scare me, if Fielder isn’t going to sign until February-ish. And there’s no reason for him to sign BEFORE then, because Pujols is already signed, so there’s not really another comparable guy out there competing for his money/contract offers. Boras LOVES that.
I hate that.
Honestly, I think signing Fielder implies that ownership will increase payroll if/when that happens. If we’re going to be $95-ish million without him, then we’re going to definitely need to be OVER that to bring him on board AND still keep to “the plan” that Z insists he’s still sticking to.
I think EVERYONE would love to have Fielder at a price that doesn’t present a problem in continuing to get better down the road. But because it’s completely speculation– with none of us having insider knowledge– there’s no point really in debating that number, without knowing:
a) if payroll can be expanded in the process
b) what $$$’s are being tossed around by Boras and clubs currently
c) if the Mariners will be opting out of their TV deal in 2015
d) what the recent report that the Mariners are worth up to $200 million more than was rumored before the recent two audits
e) how well the young guys are going to respond in 2012 and 2013.
I think (hope?) we’re at the flinching point, and I think (hope?) Boras knows that too. The types of teams that are “in” on Fielder aren’t the types that will wait till the end of the offseason to see the final price. They can’t. They all need to sign other players if Fielder isn’t going to on their squad.
Two weeks is probably my maximum patience at this point. If it’s not done by the end of the first week of January, I would very publicly make the point that we’re no longer interested and start signing guys that make sense in different ways.
I am afraid I’m being really obtuse here, but can someone please explain to me why or how it could possibly make any kind of sense to let CJ Wilson go (if you’re the Rangers), only to replace him with Darvish, for whom you had to pony up over $50 million just for the rights to negotiate with him, and then the best case scenario for you is ending up with Darvish on the roster courtesy of a contract that will probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of what the Angels gave Wilson to leave Texas? Would Darvish not have to outperform Wilson to the tune of $50+ million of value for this to ultimately make sense for the Rangers? If they win the Series behind two Darvish shutouts, obviously it makes sense, but failing that, how is this not an insane gamble by Texas after the Matsuzaka mess in Boston?
> If it’s not done by the end of the first week of January, I would very publicly make the point that we’re no longer interested and start signing guys that make sense in different ways.
I really like this strategy, *especially* if the goal is to move the needle on Prince. For a number of reasons, I don’t believe Boras has the cards in his hand — I think he’s bluffing and counting on the flop in hopes of reaching the turn and river cards.
The Mariners are certainly interested in Fielder, but only at a certain price. Other teams are as well, but aren’t in as much of a need situation as the M’s. The Rangers? They’d be better, but I still like them to win the AL West and have to be the AL favorites for the World Series. The Cubs? They’re rebuilding, and a brand-new GM is in place this year. They’ve been spending like drunk sailors for a few years, so their reluctance is understandable. The Nationals? Maybe, but they have a lot of fresh legs already coming into place there.
I really discount the market for Fielder at the high end, which Boras is trying to manufacture.
From a need basis, I’m not sure anyone exceeds the position in which the Mariners find themselves. Because of that, I don’t believe there’s as much pressure in those other organizations to bring in Fielder. With that, I think the Mariners have some leverage in that conversation. Waiting until some end negotiations puts Boras in control.
If the M’s put forth a last-and-final offer with a 48-hour expiration, Boras would have to whip any interested suitors into shape to create the bidding situation he needs. And I think the Mariners are the key to that bidding situation. If the Mariners publicly stated “here is our offer, if you don’t come to terms we’re out”, I bet the Fielder situation would move quickly.
I have heard from a number of saber-metroids that we shouldn’t “put all our eggs in the Fielder basket” so that we allow room for FA signings in the next few years. Yet no one has mentioned who these FAs will be. Who’s contracts are up in 2013 or 2014? Will there be anyone as good as Fielder? Any even close?
Name me a WS winner who didnt have at least one superstar-level power bat on the team. We don’t have one. And don’t even say Ichiro is a superstar. And if you think any of our current young guys will be that then you’re dreaming.
Either tell me what big hitter FAs we should be waiting for / pursuing in the next couple of years or I say sign Fielder now.
PS – I feel the same way as rsrobinson
See Kenneth Arthur’s article here at LL which expands on my articles on how the playoff teams were constructed (amongst other things).
Just because we pass on Fielder now doesn’t mean that we’re suddenly out on one. Teams like St. Louis homegrew one then traded (then re-signed one) in Holliday.
Texas followed a model similar to ours in that they cleared house in 2007 trading their superstars and getting solid pieces in return (one of which was Hamilton which was high risk-high upside). It’s just that Texas had more high-calibur players to trade to get a better return, and their farm system when cleaning house was better than ours in our rebuilding under Z.
Just saying that if we don’t have a set-in-stone plan B that we need to sign Fielder I don’t believe is good reasoning. In some ways you could say you’re “settling” on Fielder as our superstar because we don’t have a clear view on who we would acquire later otherwise.
The Red Sox got Crawford and A-Gon last year, sparing no expense to get the key players who ensured that the Sox had a magical run to the AL East title, a great postseason and a epic World Series win….
…oh, wait, that’s right, didn’t matter one whit, they choked hard.
The Los Angeles Pujols of Anaheim and the offseason moves of the Texas One Strike Aways are not a reason to spend or overspend on Fielder or anyone else.
kinickers77,
I would submit the 2010 Giants as a team who won without a superstar bat (though Posey could be argued to be close to that status).
There are hardly ever teams that win the world series that don’t have a bona-fide ace either.
We don’t need a superstar bat to win the world series.
But we do need good bats. And right now we don’t have enough.
So my issue with the people who want this team to go after Prince Fielder is that, assuming he really is going to command this MASSIVE contract we all think he’s going to command, this team really isn’t in a place where a single power hitting 1B is going to change its direction. I’m sorry to have to say this but the club is still reeling from the Bavasi years. Look at that roster, particularly the offensive side of it. Right now is when the Bavasi drafts that happened when the team had high draft picks (granted, that was most of the time) would be on the team either earning the minimum or going through arbitration. Thanks to crappy drafting and crappier trades (this team could have had an outfield of Sin Soo Choo, Adam Jones, and Ichiro(!) if it weren’t for the evil B), the only meat there is positionally is what Jack Z has been able to scrounge together and what has already cascaded through the minor leagues in his drafts (particularly Ackley and Seager).
At some point, yes, someone like a Prince Fielder might well be a decent final piece to the bigger puzzle. Right now he seems like a fit because the team is bereft of offense in general. One issue, of course, is that once this team does get moving forward offensively it’s entirely possible that 1B/DH is a spot that gets ably filled internally. Given that it’s one of the easiest spots to fill, it’s not that big of a stretch, really. This team needs to wait and see where they do manage to find 2+ win players and then wait to spend FA money on those spots they can’t find anyone for.
Dave’s said this several times already, I know, but this is not a team with unlimited funds. They simply create a 90 win team by free agency alone. The alternative, which may suck for fans, is to wait things out. I realize that it feels like we’ve already done that for years and years but that’s not Jack Z’s fault. The further away we get from Bavasi, the more amazed I get at how badly he ruined this team.
M’s should have gone after Quintin. Padres got him for close to nothing.
****The Red Sox got Crawford and A-Gon last year, sparing no expense to get the key players who ensured that the Sox had a magical run to the AL East title, a great postseason and a epic World Series win….
…oh, wait, that’s right, didn’t matter one whit, they choked hard.
The Los Angeles Pujols of Anaheim and the offseason moves of the Texas One Strike Aways are not a reason to spend or overspend on Fielder or anyone else.****
Apples and oranges. The Bosox needed pitching and added bats. You can mock both of those teams but let’s be real. They were better than the 116
****The Red Sox got Crawford and A-Gon last year, sparing no expense to get the key players who ensured that the Sox had a magical run to the AL East title, a great postseason and a epic World Series win….
…oh, wait, that’s right, didn’t matter one whit, they choked hard.
The Los Angeles Pujols of Anaheim and the offseason moves of the Texas One Strike Aways are not a reason to spend or overspend on Fielder or anyone else.****
Apples and oranges. The Bosox needed pitching and added bats. You can mock both of those teams but let’s be real. They were better than the 116
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But both those teams were already better than The 116 wins in 2001 Mariners, and they added talent to their teams. Ianetta, Pujols, Wilson, Hawkins, are all big additions to their respective places on the roster and they have enough young players around that could add to the mix.
The Rangers may have made a sideways move with Darvish but Nathan lets them slide Feliz to the rotation, they could still add a bat and they have a farm system thats got talent galore. What would you do to have us be one pitch away from WS Champs…. get real.
When our best option is to hope the teams ahead of us choke, then our options suck.
At least Oakland sold off everything so their will be people who’s entire argument for us not being awful is that at least we arent the Athletics.
“Yay Team” Really looking forward to the new tv commercials. They should be interesting.
Greentunic, good point about the Giants. Maybe Jack Z wants to be like them and win solely on stellar pitching when our other young guys come up. Although it’s always a risky plan to put all your eggs in the “pitching basket,” since it’s the most volatile position in the game.
And everyone knows SF got lucky with that WS title – they got hot at just the right time, especially that no namer Cody Ross. Can’t plan for that kind of luck.
And Johnny, you bring us back to the ridiculous perspective that Dave seems to be blinded by too – we need more than Prince so don’t waste your money. That logic makes no sense. It’s like deciding not to eat healthy because it doesn’t promise that you won’t have health problems in the future. Prince is not the savior of the Mariners but he makes the team significantly better than any other FAs on the horizon so why can’t he be a “building piece?”
If we sign Prince even miraculously to only 5 years (but I’m sure he’d require 8 or so), if JackZ can’t build the rest of a winning team around him and Felix within 2-4 years, on one of the top 5-8 highest payrolls in the MLB, then I’m sorry, he’s not a good GM. I know he inherited a mess and he’s rebuilding our farm nicely, which is very valuable, but we should be be moving towards winning soon after all the old bad choices expire because we have good resources to make it happen.
The argument that gets used over and over is that we need to wait to add, because we don’t know what our holes are. That’s true. But that only works in theory, and we operate in the real world.
I keep stressing 2014 because that’s the big year. Felix’s walk year. The year before the TV contraction re-negotiation. The year Pujols/Wilson are projected to start falling off and the Rangers lose everyone but Beltre and need to pick which players to resign. Winning before is gravy, but if we don’t win by this year we lose a lot.
So you have to start collecting the pieces now. Outside of Felix, no one is on the books for 2014, so if we keep payroll the same adding inflation, we literally have $80M to spend for 2014. We need to start tying it up somewhere, because if the Marlins taught us anything this year it’s that you can’t spend $80M in a single off-season (unless you have a closer fetish). Waiting to fill in holes is nice in theory, but real life has actual deadlines, and doesn’t always have pieces that cooperate to fill in those holes because they think Seattle sucks.
Honestly, the 1B/DH issue isn’t even a big deal. A 50 run bat is a 50 run bat, no matter where it plays. Hell he’s probably better at DH than 1B sabermetrically, since he’s -10 runs at 1B and the DH adjustment is -5 runs on 1B. As for the “no one pays $20M for a DH,” well people pay $20M for -5 run 1Bs, which is basically the same thing.
The point is even with Fielder, we’d have somewhere around $60M for 2014. You can fill six holes with 2 WAR players if you really need to. Signing Fielder doesn’t hurt the plan at all. It fact it makes it easier by making Seattle more desirable for other FAs.
It’s time to stop rebuilding, and start building. Felix isn’t going to be here forever.
Actually, it does.
It’s called getting bang for your buck. It’s not that Fielder won’t help your team. He will. But you can use those funds to fill other holes, and probably get more wins because your baseline is so low.
AND….you become more attractive to a free agent like Fielder, thus lowering any overpayment you would have to make to get him.
Gwangung, just like Valencia was saying, you are idealizing something that won’t happen in the real world of baseball. You’re playing fantasy my friend.
99% of the time, you have to overpay for superstars anyway. So, adding the other “perfect pieces” that could help lure someone like Fielder cheaper is not a reality. Whoever offers the most typically lands the player, that’s just how it goes and since GMs know this, they bid each other up.
If anything, now is the time to pounce on a big bat like Fielder because the other big market teams aren’t interested and bidding up the price. Who knows if the market will be like this later.
In real baseball you have to pursue the bang for your buck that is really out there and available, not the ideal ones you’re waiting for to show up. You’ll wait forever. You’ve gotta be flexible. I think Jack Z knows this, which is why rumors are that he’s pursuing Fielder.
“But both those teams were already better than The 116 wins in 2001 Mariners”
(Scratches heads… checks their records)
Uh, no they weren’t.
(Dumbfounded)
So your point is that it’s harder to get the bang for the buck in the non superstar players?
Sorry, that’s not making sense. That’s fantasy, because the value in other players IS there, and always is.
You are panicking and trying to get Fielder at all costs, which makes no sense. If he’s available now at a decent enough price, by all means, get him—but you don’t overpay for him when you have other needs.
Evidence of Z improving our minor league system:
Biggest vacuum in our starting lineup= 3B & LF
Best position player prospects currently in the majors/minors:
Liddi 3B
Seager 3B
Catricala 3B
Martinez 3B
Franklin SS
Casper Wells LF
Trayon Robinson LF/CF
Mike Carp LF/1B
Stack ’em up and see who wants the job!
Coincidence? Or good GM’ing?
It makes perfect sense. Superstar players are superstars because you typically get a consistent bang for your buck. Non superstars you either don’t get the consistency or you consistently get average or below average, and you can’t win a championship with only average.
You guys act like these value finds because of sabermetrics are “under the radar” waiting for us to find them. Every team has sabermetrics guys who know the Mr. Avg so-and-so’s who’ll give them plus +1 WAR. And they are a dime a dozen whom are easier to find when you need them. Big powerful bats like Prince don’t come around often and especially at a time when you have a legitimate shot within the current market, so yeah, go for it.
And don’t falsely accuse me of panicing. I don’t think they should sign him at all costs. We should have limits. But I’m also not going join the unrealistic community waiting for 5 prospects to become superstars and the next Average Joe to magically become Jose Bautista overnight.
Sudden revelation… Maybe as I’m getting further away from last year’s pain, I’m getting unusually optimistic… Or maybe it’s just that there are no games going on to prove my ignorance currently… But!
Much as our expectations have been set EXCEEDINGLY low with any “this is our current team” scenarios… This is actually NOT the worst team in baseball when the roster sits as follows:
LF Wells/Carp
CF Guty
RF Ichiro
(Reserves: Robinson/Ford)
3B Liddi/Seager
SS Ryan
2B Ackley
1B Carp/Smoak
(Reserves: Seager/Figgins)
DH Carp/Smoak
C Olivo/Laso
Bench:
Figgins
Robinson
Darren Ford
Laso/Olivo
Liddi/Seager
Sure the infield is a little devoid of power, but it’s also FINALLY devoid of big swooshes of “swing and a miss” air… Pretty much EVERYONE on that roster is a “put it in play” type of guy, which can lead to just as many accumulated runs as a single “bash it over the fence” type of guy, and longer rallies, actually (than a guy who bats only every 2-3 innings).
And every guy on that roster, other than Ichiro, Ryan, Olivo and Guty probably has a couple WAR rise still in their future.
PLUS! (MORE good news…) Our only remaining K crater is Olivo and we’ve got Laso (a former leadoff hitting catcher, with good OBP) to cover him when that vulnerability is unacceptable.
Now, sure, is it an IDEAL lineup? No. But plenty of clay to work with there. If we’re honest. And if we’re lucky and get to insert Fielder, which turns Smoak and Carp into DH/bench guys, heck, who knows?
The grass is always greener at the other guys ball park… Right?
“Mr. Avg so-and-so’s who’ll give them plus +1 WAR. And they are a dime a dozen”
Funny, on the current market there are neither a dozen of these players (adjusted by position, naturally), nor do they cost a “proverbial” dime when you find them.
Mr.Z- Players like John Jaso or George Sherrill can be found every offseason. Players like Fielder don’t come available very often. That’s what I was saying. And in the world of MLB payrolls, contracts like theirs are cheap, a proverbial “dime a dozen.”
Marc, in terms of elevator clauses, it’s all about viewers. If a team does well, that should equate to more viewers, which means that more $ can be charged for commercials because there is interest in the team, versus one that is paying rent in the basement of their division. So, I would expect elevator clauses for things like going to the playoffs the previous year, a Cy Young / MVP/ RoY winner, etc.
Clauses like that are similar to how a radio station (like the one I volunteer for) work. More listeners during drive time means that we can charge more. Escalators can be included for certain Arbitron ratings and for Nielsen ratings on TV side.
MrZDevotee,
I have to agree with your unpopular optimism with our 2012 lineup. Taking 2011’s ABs away from Bradley, Figgins, Olivo (not all but some), Cust, Jack Wilson, Mike Wilson, Peguero, and Saunders and giving more to Carp, Wells, Ackley, Jaso, and Not-Figgins can significantly improve our run scoring.
I don’t quite share your evaluation of our lineup as a low-K one (Wells, Seager, Liddi, Olivo, and Robinson all struck out a bit too much for my taste last year). However, I do expect to see general improvement from most of those guys in K/AB this year.
Players like Fielder don’t come available very often.
Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera have all been available in the past several years. Joey Votto is a free agent in 2 years.
Exactly Liam. Pujols, AGon, Tex and Miggy will all not be available for a long time after signing long-term contracts with teams not named the Mariners. By the time they’re available again, they’ll not be superstars anymore probably. And yes, it was over the course of several years. Do you want to wait “several” years for another one to be available and then have to fight against the Yanks, BoSox, and other larger payrolls for him because the power hitters they now have locked up are starting to diminish? I don’t. Votto would be nice to go after in 2 years. If we could get him, then I’d say it’s worth passing on Fielder now. But again, who knows what competition we’d be up against then, probably more than we have right now for Fielder.
Oh and MrZDevotee, looks like Dave already wrote about the next cheap Mr. Average So-and-So that we could get – Wil Venable. Like I said, they are easily found and at $2M to hold him through 2015, that’s cheap. I say we go for him too because he’d be a nice added piece but still think we should sign Prince.
“Exactly Liam. Pujols, AGon, Tex and Miggy will all not be available for a long time after signing long-term contracts with teams not named the Mariners. By the time they’re available again, they’ll not be superstars anymore probably.”
Really man? You completely missed Z and Liam’s points.
There is always a big name bat available, whether through free agency, or trade (usually around the deadline). The question that is always the same, is what you’re willing to pay for it.
You can’t worry yourself over what’s going to happen with other teams free agents in the future. Nobody knows what’s going to happen two years from now. Nobody knows what’s going to happen 6 months from now!
Steve, I was using Liam’s point against him. I did not miss their points. You missed mine – maybe I didn’t explain it clearly enough.
My point was that the Average Joes are way more common to find than the Superstars. Besides Votto, what big bats are hitting FA in the next season or two? All those names Liam listed are locked in for a long time so they for sure won’t be.
I’m just tired of guys saying, “Wait it out, maybe next year.” “There’s plenty more out there.” Maybe there is but the Ms haven’t done anything about it in a long time. Our offense has sucked for a few years and I’m tired of the “let’s look for cheap answers” response. It hasn’t worked. And rarely is there a time when a legit power hitter like Fielder is available with limited competition to land him like we have now, that’s why I say now is a good time.
No, I understood your point and I know exactly what you were doing. But by doing that, you are ignoring their points and mine (yes, I see the humor in this!).
There is always someone available. Big names, small names, no names. It’s easy to forget that when you just look at it through free agency. Venable isn’t a free agent and we don’t even know for sure that San Diego is eager to deal him. But for the right price? Right now, everything is speculation.
I understand your frustration with the lack of offense. But to be fair, think of the 2001 Mariners. No major contracts, yet we had a killer year. When Bavasi took over, he spent a ton of dough, and created a mess. There are no guarantees.
There are always power/clutch hitters available. First example that comes to my mind from last season, is Hunter Pence. Beltran would be another. It may be that we end up trading for someone. We don’t have to panic if we miss out on Fielder. Just because we can’t see who might be a good fit right now (if we don’t land Fielder), doesn’t mean all hope is lost. Maybe 3 months from now, we land what we need through an unexpected trade? It is hard to stay patient though, when you’re watching the teams around us make big moves, when we’ve see very little action. I know I sound like a broken record, but patience really is important.
I see your point. I/We need to be patient. It’s just hard to be when our offense has stunk for s while now and we haven’t really done much to fix it yet. I’m deeply counting on the “yet” part.