Jesus Montero and Defensive Value
It’s 2,300 words and I still feel like I just scratched the surface of the subject, but for those interested in whether I think Montero should be a catcher or a DH, I tackled that issue at FanGraphs today. For those who just want a summary – I can see the arguments for either decision, but I don’t think it will make a big difference in his value either way. A brutal defensive catcher isn’t really that much more valuable than a DH. Personally, I think I’d probably move him out from behind the plate, but if the M’s want to try to make it work during a season where bad catcher defense probably won’t cost them a division title, I’m okay with that too.
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can he be trained to play LF?
I guess that if I were a baseball player, I would try to increase my value as a player by learning how to play as many positions as possible.
I think a lot will depend on how Jaso, Olivo and Montero look during the spring. In particular, if Jaso has a hot bat and fields decently, it wouldn’t surprise me if Olivo is traded, Jaso becomes the first string catcher and Montero ends up at DH and as 2nd string catcher, with Moore as an insurance policy in Tacoma. Similarly, while Smoak has first dibs on 1B, if he is injured or starts off slowly, then Carp will play some 1B as well as LF. Wells’ playing time will depend on how healthy he is, as well as how well Gutti plays and feels. Personally, I’d say there is decent likelihood that the lineup that finishes the season is different by 3-4 starters from the lineup that started the season.
As far as converting Montero to the OF is concerned, I doubt it will be an easy task. It might even require some effort to get him up to the level of Ibanez out there, let alone Wells, Guti or Ichiro. Even Carp should be able to keep ahead of Montero as a fielder, if he continues to improve.
You have a right to be here? Seriously?
No, you don’t. Stop acting like a clown or that privilege will be revoked.
@Nebikard on January 16th, 2012 9:57 pm
You might want to familiarize yourself a bit with the “USSM Orientation” and the “Comment Guideline”. Your post triggered the comment that it did because it was so incredibly far below Replacement Level Commenting that even Bavasi would have given it an outright release in Spring Training.
“can he be trained to play LF?”
I’ve mentioned this before in other comments, but Baseball America has him listed at 6’4″, 224 lbs, with 13% body fat. I bring this up because I think it’s helpful to understand that this guy isn’t some big giant blob. This is a young man, 22 years old, that would appear to be in excellent physical condition. He’s been playing professional baseball since he was 16, presumably on something like a year-round schedule. He’s a baseball player. Why wouldn’t we at least try him in LF in spring training?
And here’s something else. I don’t hear anybody questioning that he can be trained to play first base in time for the season. So why not Left Field? Can he really be much worse than Carp?
If he’s physically slower, yes.
I hope the M’s test him out at 3B, too. I did a quick google search of “jesus montero third base” to see if anything would come up. The best I got was an article from Larry Stone over a year ago that said “His modest athleticism and below-average speed probably preclude a move to the outfield or third base, a position he played prior to signing.”
The idea of Montero playing third reminds me of Pablo Sandoval, who did some catching in the minors, and now he’s a good defensive third basemen.
One scouting report I read on Montero mentioned a play in which he hit into a double play and was trying to book it to first to beat the throw(essentially going top speed) and his time was still very bad. That killed my hope that he could play outfield.
“If he’s physically slower, yes.”
I’ve never heard Carp described as any kind of a burner.
I obviously don’t know what kind of speed Montero has, but it seems probable that he’s on the slow side. It remains to be seen if he has enough foot speed to field the position.
Why does that make the most sense? I would rather see Casper Wells in left. He has a lot more experience as an outfielder and has showed that he’s pretty good out there.
It makes the most sense because it takes him out from behind the plate and gives him an everyday position in the field, leaving the DH spot open. It also leaves First Base open for Smoak, who actually is a First Baseman.
It’s important for him to not play catcher for two reasons:
1) Most reports indicate that he is somewhere between below average and genuinely bad at being a catcher. At the same time, the position of catcher is one of the most important defensive positions on the field, if not the most important.
2) His value as a player rests primarily on his ability with the bat. Catching not only exposes him to injury, but the daily wear and tear of playing the position is likely to suppress his offense.
Dave mentioned that point specifically in this post: http://www.ussmariner.com/2012/01/13/pineda-trade-sets-team-up-to-do-more/
“…there’s a mountain of evidence that shows that hitters perform significantly better when they move out from behind the plate. The physical toll of catching is harsh, and not many players can endure the beating they take over the long term.”
Of course, if he is an absolute disaster in left field, it won’t work. But, from what I understand, he’s never played first base either. So, if you are going to try and get him to play another position, why not try left field first? If it works out, and he’s adequate out there and can make the routine plays, then you’ve really got something. It it doesn’t work out defensively, then you still have 1B and DH.
You do not have 1st base! Hello? We have a 1st Baseman. The point is NOT to bring in Montero to get rid of Smoak, who I’m sure is obviously the better defensive 1st Baseman. The point is to start stacking these hitters together.
This argument that DH has no value in the AL is ridiculous. I keep hearing “most of his value is with his bat.” Well no kidding, then if we need to put him at DH, then that’s where he goes to put up his 40 homers a year. Why not let him win 10 consecutive EDGAR MARTINEZ awards? I’m pretty sure Gar had some “value” for this team for a long time.
Obviously, you put him at DH if you need to, but we’re talking about a 22 year old athlete. Why would you pigeonhole him at DH if you don’t have to? It’s not like this guy is a bad body slugger like Ryan Howard or David Ortiz. Carlos Lee has played left field his entire career and he’s 6’2″ 265. But it’s completely out of the question that Jesus Montero could play out there?
Also, I shouldn’t have to point out that if you can find him a position on the field where he doesn’t kill you with his defense, that opens up the DH spot for another hitter. If you’re reading this blog, I assume you understand that logic.
I don’t think Carp makes this team unless he is an outfielder. I hope during spring training we play Montero and Smoak at 3rd, just for the fact it’s going to be hard to play them at the same time, and I’m not too thrilled to have 5 of our 13 batters being C and 1B.
Just for the sake of argument, how bad would Smoak have to be at 3rd to not start over Seager? Is trying those 2 at 3rd a worthwhile idea, or just a waste of time?
that opens up the DH spot for another hitter
Given this roster, it would be truer to say that it opens up the DH spot for someone who’s a better fielder and worse hitter than Montero. I don’t see logic in playing Montero in LF just so you can DH Casper Wells.
tmac, remember how well it worked shifting Lopez to 3B and Figgins to 2B? And Figgins had played the keystone before, and the hot corner was theoretically a better fit for Lopez in the field. Given that Smoak’s not exactly Keith Hernandez at 1b, why would you think shifting him across the diamond would work even as well?
Respectfully, Montero’s athleticism has never been his calling card. I don’t think it’s Montero’s size that precludes him from playing catcher (Weiters is 6’5″, 230), but the fact that a) he seems to lack mobility, and b) the wear and tear on his body will diminish his bat. Since his bat is the thing that might really make him a unique player, I think we should go ahead and recognize the DH as one of 9 positions in a lineup that need to be filled, and fill it with someone who can really hit.
We can debate, debate, debate… But we just traded for a catcher. All signs point to giving him a chance at catcher, before deciding where else he can’t learn to play. Maybe I’m WAY off base here, but perhaps we see what he does at catcher, the most obvious position of which a) he has exclusively played the past 6 years, b) holds incredibly high value for an above average bat, c) is a position of need on the M’s.
Again, the bar is not real high in the world of Rob Johnsons, Adam Moores, and Miguel Olivo’s. Fail at catcher first please, then we’ll talk other positions.
(If you need to move him to the outfield, I say wait and give him Ichiro’s spot next season, based on his above average arm… And let him play winter league/Venezuelan league in the outfield next offseason, first.)
Just for the sake of argument, how bad would Smoak have to be at 3rd to not start over Seager?
Seager was average to below average 3B on offense and average on defense (his WAR ranges from 0.5 to 0.8 on a third of a season, depending on the source, so it could be projected 1.5 to 2.5- basically, there are pretty big error bars on his offense). Smoak was below average at 1B on offense and average on defense.
So, this is a terrible idea- you’re putting a guy who didn’t have a great 2011 (yes, I know, he had some good weeks- but he had a bunch of bad ones) at a completely new defensive position that’s considerably more challenging, just because Kyle Seager doesn’t hit DINGERS!11111!!!
This team should give Smoak and Montero their shots at positions they’ve played through their pro careers before throwing them around the diamond like pasta and seeing if they stick to the wall as al dente.
And I’ve never heard Carp described as a particularly good defensive outfielder, either.
As I said, I can think of several ways where Montero could be worse than Carp, all of which are distinctly possible or probable.
Wedge specifically said during the winter meetings that he sees Carp as the everyday left fielder.
Carp/Wells LF
Guti/Carp CF
Smoak/Carp 1b
Montero/Carp DH
Jaso/Olivo/Montero C
7 players, 5 positions. Competition and not enough spots- not a bad problem to have.
Of course, we all would like to see Figgins and Olivo disappear.
Dave, what now part 3 soon? It seems Montero just upgrades/replaces Trayvon Robinson while creating an insignificant hole in the rotation (could be filled by Noesi). So the Mariners could still upgrade the rotation and an infield spot. Is that accurate? Is that your prediction? Does Carp get moved to make ‘room’ for Montero or do we keep him as competition, a Wells platoon or insurance for Ichi/Guti? I could still see a Figgins for Zito-esque swap and then a low impact infield signing. Thoughts?
I feel bad for Z this organazation doesn’t give him any money to really work with and keep cutting his budget back so he has to trade Pineda and then throw in Camps for Montero and basically get fleeced. O well Yankees just became my 2nd Fav. team i usually root against them now that they have Pineda can’t and i hope he turns into a #1 for them.
Smoak can’t play 3B because he’s left handed.
If you want bat-first, no glove 3Bs, we have Catricala. If you want bat-first, no glove LFs, we have Carp. We already have our star 1B Smoak. Montero has nowhere else but C/DH. And playing him at C means we keep Wells’ bat in the line-up over Olivo’s, and Wells’ glove in the field over Carp’s. That will add up to more wins in the long-run. Unless Montero’s defense is -40 run bad, but I’ve never heard a scouting report say anything close to that.
Really? Really???
A good possibility we might be thinking the other way around in a couple years.
I feel bad for Z this organazation doesn’t give him any money to really work with and keep cutting his budget back so he has to trade Pineda and then throw in Camps for Montero and basically get fleeced. O well Yankees just became my 2nd Fav. team i usually root against them now that they have Pineda can’t and i hope he turns into a #1 for them.
____________________________
Say what?
Actually, come to think of it, 3b has become a much more gaping hole now. Unless Seager projects to be an above-average glove, or Liddi is really ML-ready overall.
Catricala is at least a year away, maybe 2. I don’t know as remaining free agents like Wilson Betemit or Felipe Lopez are really a significant upgrade over looking at Seager or Liddi for a full season.
Any 3b out there to target? The farm could probably afford to pony up one more quality pitcher and one or more of the outfield pile, depending on who came back.
“I hope during spring training we play Montero and Smoak at 3rd”
Smoak throws left-handed. When is the last time you saw a non-first-base infielder who threw left-handed (besides little league)?
Jordan said:
“Guti/Carp CF”
Carp is probably not a good choice as backup center fielder; it would be more realistic to assume Wells taking that role.
“Jaso/Olivo/Montero C”
I agree that we should think of Montero as a “last resort” at C currently. If he were to upgrade his defensive skills he might make it to backup. But I’d be quite surprised if Montero ends up catching more than say, 30 games in 2012.
Catricala’s a year away, maybe half if he lights up AAA the same way he lit up everything else. There’s no way it takes him 2 full years to make the Show.
The only good 3Bs you could target are Wright and Headley, both would require at least Walker or Paxton. You could maybe argue Reynolds or Prado. But it’s probably the wrong time to make a move on a veteran 3B. Like everyone loves to say, we’re more than one bat away. Wait it out, see what Seager, Catricala, Liddi, and Martinez can do while the pitching comes up, and if no one shows promise then make a move.
If you want to talk prospects, not much is better than Seager and Catricala. 3B is pretty bad around the league prospect wise, as most of the best ones just finished A-ball.
Maybe the M’s should be training one of these minor league catchers to play 3B and/or LF and/or RF.
If Montero is a C/DH, then we’ll need a more full-time C. In that case, it would be nice to have an extra catcher for when Montero is DH, but that C would hopefully play another position or two so as to not be clogging a roster spot.
WOO DINGERS!
“Smoak throws left-handed. When is the last time you saw a non-first-base infielder who threw left-handed (besides little league)?”
There’s a first time for everything! Smoak could be the Jackie Robinson of Left-handed 3rd basemen.
We had minor league catchers? Last I checked we were converting Shortstops to Catcher. 😀
Draft Zunino and we have the best C/DH job-share ever.
I’d completely forgotten that Smoak was a lefty thrower for some reason. Yeah, the 3B thing would be right out even if rightward shifts on the defensive spectrum didn’t work extremely rarely (Dustin Ackley’s move from corner OF to 2B is a rare, rare exception). I’m actually not convinced that a decent glove man with a good arm who happened to throw left *couldn’t* succeed as a 3B but given the fact that it’s literally been more than a century since anyone in major league baseball even tried it for more than a couple of innings, it’s a bit much to ask of Eric Wedge.
As for Montero, I’m still a fan of seeing how he does this year at catcher. If he doesn’t work out, he doesn’t work out. Me, I’d slot him in right field, where his catcher’s arm could still come into play and where our home field doesn’t really require massive range (granted that we’ve had a guy out there the past decade who is very rangey). Left field, I guess, if the team wants to keep Ichiro and doesn’t want to move him over there (he’s not exactly a spring chicken, although if he bounces back I think everyone would love to see him chase 3,000 American hits and for that matter Pete Rose’s all-time record). Third base, I think, would be tough to teach him in the majors and so is probably out, although if he played some before I guess it’s not completely out of the question.
Montero is going to catch and DH this year. He’s not going to play 1B or 3B or LF. Smoak will be the everyday 1B with Carp as his backup. Carp will also DH and play LF. Don’t expect to see anything radically different than this.
All it takes for a successful left-handed 3rd baseman is a good spin move.
What I really hate about Reynolds is he’s at something like 800+ Ks in 4 years who’s a dead pull hitter, coming to a stadium who’s biggest traits are “kill dead pull right handed hitters” and “increase Ks”. He walks more than Olivo so he’s not terrible, more like a Rob Deer/Gorman Thomas type, but he’s going to be coming back to the dugout after a K a lot, and Safeco’s a lousy fit. We saw what this place did to Beltre. I can’t imagine Reynolds would do much better.
Oh, and he’s one of the worst defensive 3Bs in baseball. Like -15 or -20 runs/year bad.
Given that Montero is in the org now as a RHB to go with Wells, I am starting to think Reynolds doesn’t fit in. I want more of a Jeff Conine type of player, someone who would be adequate or better at 1B/LF/3B, wherever we need them in the line at a corner position that day, and is more a line-drive, all fields RHB who isn’t screwed by Safeco’s LF grayeyard for fly balls.
Sorry Bongo, typo. Of course I meant Wells. I was simply stating it’s not a bad idea to have 6 or 7 guys sharing 5 positions; especially if they all perform to their projections (Ichiro/Guti/Carp/Wells/Seager/Smoak) and collectively our 10th guy becomes McLemore. Wow, typing this it hurts to realize how many legitimate question marks this team still has.
Yes, Dave, I have the right to be here. I also apologized for my previous comments in that very same post. You should do the right thing and recognize that and move on.
Anyway, let’s get back to talking Mariners baseball, shall we?
Yes, a team with this many question marks needs a lot of flexibility to deal with them all. For example, it would be nice to have a viable 3B candidate other than Seager, given that Martinez, Rodgriguez and Liddi probably should start the season in AAA, and we’ve all but given up on Figgins. The OF situation is also troubling with Wells and Guti having health issues, Ichiro on the decline and Carp serving as only a passable LF.
I actually kind of like the idea of Montero being a backup catcher and a starting outfielder. I would rather see him in LF than Carp.
What do you guys think about trying Figgins out as a leadoff hitter and moving Ichiro back in the order? After all, Chone was one of the best leadoff hitters in the game before he came here…
Ichiro RF
Gutierrez CF
Ackley 2B
Montero DH
Smoak 1B
Carp LF
Olivo C
Ryan SS
Figgins 3B