Too Much of the Same Thing
Not counting Carlos Peguero — because, actual presence on the roster or not, he’s not a Major League player — the Mariners currently have five outfielders on their big league roster: Michael Saunders, Franklin Gutierrez, Casper Wells, Trayvon Robinson, and Eric Thames. On one hand, it’s a balanced bunch, as there’s two left-handed hitters, two right-handed hitters, and a switch-hitter. On the other hand, there’s not much balance at all, because the team has only two types of players in the OF, just with multiple versions of each.
Here’s the 2010-2012 core stats for the five active outfielders on the roster.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casper Wells | 599 | 7% | 27% | 0.188 | 0.307 |
| Eric Thames | 658 | 6% | 24% | 0.180 | 0.312 |
| Michael Saunders | 965 | 8% | 26% | 0.145 | 0.271 |
| Trayvon Robinson | 272 | 7% | 32% | 0.121 | 0.327 |
| Franklin Gutierrez | 1053 | 7% | 20% | 0.100 | 0.287 |
Wells, Thames, and Saunders are all basically the same type of hitter – low contact guys who don’t many walks and thus need to hit for significant power to justify their spot in the line-up. They’re always going to be low-OBP players because of their approach at the plate and their problems putting the bat on the ball. Saunders and Wells are better versions of this player type because they can hold down center field and play all three OF spots, while Thames lack of range and moderate offensive abilities make him more of a bench guy.
Then, on the other end of the offensive spectrum, you have Gutierrez and Robinson, who have to compensate for their lack of power by doing other things. Guti obviously plays incredible defense, so he’s got value on those rare days when he can actually stay on the field. Robinson is essentially Guti without defense and with even worse contact rates, which is why I don’t buy him as a Major League player. He doesn’t hit well enough to be a starter and he can only play left field because of his absurdly weak arm, so he doesn’t really fit in as a fourth outfielder either. While I get that he’s the flavor of the week, he’s also the worst player of the bunch, and not someone that should be in the organization’s future plans.
Realistically, the only one of these guys you can look at as an everyday guy going forward is Saunders, and even he’s a bit of a fringe starter. Wells and Thames are both decent enough platoon options, and you could probably get away with platooning them in right field next year if you had center and left locked up with players you could count on, but the Mariners don’t have that. Gutierrez remains a complete wild card, as they simply cannot count on him being able to play on any given day. From a talent standpoint, he’s still the team’s best OF, but from a health standpoint, he’s simply too unreliable to depend on. So, if you build out a roster that includes Gutierrez as one of your OFs, you need to have three other capable starting OFs around him. And, if you’re already carrying Saunders, Thames, and Wells, you only have two spots covered despite taking up three roster spots.
So, in reality, the Mariners are either going to have to carry five full-time outfielders next year, or they’re going to have dispense with one of the job-sharing situations and bring in a full-time player who can play everyday. If, for instance, the team brought in a full time corner outfielder, a three-way rotation of Saunders, Gutierrez, and Wells sharing two jobs is workable, as long as the organization can convince Eric Wedge to stop benching Wells every time he goes into a slump anyway.
And, really, it’d be nice if the new guy wasn’t cut from these same two cloths that the organization has been trying to carve an outfield out of. The team has run through a ton of low contact guys in the last few years, and hopefully by now is realizing that these kinds of players have too many flaws to be everyday starters. Likewise, if you’re going to get a low-power outfielder, he better either be able to play really good defense at all three outfield spots and be durable enough to play everyday.
Right now, the Mariners have five outfielders, three of whom are best utilized as role players and one of whom probably doesn’t even have the skills to pull that off. That kind of roster construction isn’t going to work next year. If you’re penciling Michael Saunders into one job — no matter what spot it is, really — and Franklin Gutierrez in for a roster spot in some form, then the only way to put together a good outfield in 2013 is to bring in a full-time, everyday, guy who can play all nine innings no matter who the other pitcher is.
That means that the organization is going to have to make some calls on these guys this winter. With any luck, someone else will want to hope Trayvon Robinson either finds some power or is interested in using him to test out a new bionic arm replacement, and they can ship him off for something useful, as he doesn’t really fit into any kind of need the team has for 2013. The remaining four could fit on the roster as long as the team acquired another full-time outfielder to hold down one spot and Thames was also utilized as a reserve 1B/DH type, allowing him to provide a little more depth than simply serving as another part-time OF.
Right now, though, the pieces don’t fit. Guti’s contract and talent make it worth giving him one more chance to try and stay healthy, but you can’t go into 2013 with Saunders in one spot, Guti in another, and then Thames/Wells/Robinson fighting over one the remaining spot. There’s just not a productive enough player in the group to make that work, and the team would be surrendering too much value in giving three roster spots to guys who come with so much risk.
There’s going to be a lot of focus on the M’s getting “a big bat” this winter. In reality, their biggest need is actually just for one good everyday outfielder. If they can find a +3 win OF who can play 150+ games next year, that will free the team up to take risks on Saunders and Gutierrez. Without that guy, though, this current group of outfielders just doesn’t work.
Thames has power but Mike is much more polished. His career OBP is 26 points higher (.302 to .328). His career OPS+ is 111 (compared to Eric’s 97.)
To be fair, Trayvon has very few PA. He may indeed turn out to be a bad hitter, but this is a small sample.
This only holds water if we ignore minor league numbers. Since this website is devoted to reality-based analysis, there’s no reason to do that.
Obviously, it’s good that Robinson has improved his contact and brought his strikeout rate down from awful to mediocre. But this isn’t sufficient to make him a useful player–it just moves him closer to–or perhaps up to–replacement level. Another thing we learned about Robinson in 2012 is that any improvement in his power numbers toward the end of his tenure with the Dodgers organization is more about Albuquerque than his actual abilities. If he can sustain his new lower strikeout rate, great–we can expect him to hit .250–.270 going forward. But without something else–some power, sufficient plate discipline to draw lots of walks, and/or plus defense, that’s not enough to make him part of a conversation about a future worth having.
“I will be very surprised if the team signs any big money FA’s this off season. They might make a trade, but I don’t think spending money is what they will do. My reasoning is, I believe they are setting the team up to be sold.”
You have any proof for this baseless claim?
Mike Carp is almost certainly capable of better production at first base than Trayvon or Thames
Agree with Westside. What possible reason do we have, based on their track records and skill levels, to assume Carp’s production will “almost certainly” be meaningfully better than Thames? Thames is (slightly) younger, has more power, and insofar as Carp had a slightly better performance in comparing their 2011 seasons, it was based on an obviously unsustainable BABIP. They’ve both taken a step backward in 2012 from 2011, but Carp more so.
Probably based on every second Geoff Baker column from the last three years. And as Geoff is quick to remind us, he is a Seasoned and Professional Journalist, not an egotistical and naive blogger, so anyone who has half a brain should know that they can trust that what he writes is true and correct.
I was mainly commenting on Dave’s table. Trayvon’s MiLB stats are relevant, but they weren’t cited.
There is no way Hamilton would ever consider coming to Seattle.
You must be an intimate friend with insider knowledge. So tell, where is he going? Just dying to know.
I can think of about 200 million reasons why he MIGHT come to Seattle.
I don’t read Baker, I was making a guess, not a claim.
What makes you think it is baseless anyway? There is plenty of evidence to point to a possible selling of the team. I was giving an opinion that, we will not be signing high priced FA’s and a reason why. Many Fan’s will say it is because the Ownership does not want to win, but I believe (you know just a guess) that they have run their course and looking for a way out. Making it a desirable team on paper, will help it sell. Show me facts or proof that my guess has no merit.
“Show me facts or proof that my guess has no merit.”
You’re the one who is saying baseless things. Why should any of us need to prove that it is baseless? You can speculate all you want, but there is not anything substantial to back your claim. To ask someone to disprove a claim with a lack of substance is a silly thing to do. Instead, since you’re the one who is thinking this is going to happen, try persuading US with reasons and facts.
While I don’t agree with Auggeydog’s opinion – it was obviously just his personal opinion, and I don’t think he represented it as anything but that.
Really, we don’t know any of this for sure. The team will have more room to take on salary, but it’s not beyond the realm of possibility they could decide to pocket it for whatever reason – teams have done it before.
I’m not saying I believe that will happen, because I don’t…. just that it’s not a completely wild idea.
I will be pretty irate if they trade prosepcts for Josh Willingham after passing up on the opportunity to sign him to a fairly reasonable contract last off-season.
[not a board]
(emphasis added)
From the USSM Orientation (since you’re posting here I presume that this is just a reminder):
“Generally speaking, in discussions:
The burden of proof is on the person who makes the assertion, and the wilder your assertion, the better your evidence should be. If you want to argue that Raul Ibanez is the best defensive left fielder ever, or that clutch hitting exists, or whatever, you need to bring the proof. “You need to disprove my theory” is not an acceptable argument, ever.” (emphasis added)
auggeydog – you have the burden of proof. As noted in the orientation, “This may seem like a terrible burden on you. Sorry. But there it is. Bear it.”
*******
BTW – same observation WRT to Hamilton. If someone is going to assert that he is never going to come to Seattle, it’s up to them to prove the assertion.
Beat me to it Steve. Some of us who have been reading the site for YEARS need to help educate some of these people who think this is some kind of forum. Now there’s a little more lee-way(sp?) in the game threads, but the nature of this site is based in facts not opinions and feelings. And it seems like from time to time baseless opinions start getting more frequent until someone (usually Dave or DMZ back in the good old days) directs these people to the rules of the site.
Actually, Carp’s and Thames’ career major league OPS aren’t different enough to matter.
The difference is that Thames has a 108 wRC+ vs. righties and 64 vs. lefties, while Carp has reverse platoon splits that adjust back to neutral when you normalize BABIP. Essentially, Thames is a platooner while Carp could play very day.
Agree with Westside. What possible reason do we have, based on their track records and skill levels, to assume Carp’s production will “almost certainly” be meaningfully better than Thames? Thames is (slightly) younger, has more power, and insofar as Carp had a slightly better performance in comparing their 2011 seasons, it was based on an obviously unsustainable BABIP. They’ve both taken a step backward in 2012 from 2011, but Carp more so.
You misquoted me; actually what I said was “Mike Carp is almost certainly capable of better production at first base than Trayvon or Thames is in a corner outfield position”. Mike Carp in left field is NOT almost certainly capable of better production than Trayvon or Thames; the difference is that Carp plays acceptable 1B defense while all three are bad in LF. I suppose Thames could probably produce decently at first, except, as mentioned above, he’s got giant honking platoon splits. And he doesn’t know how to play 1B, so far as we know.
We also DO have reason to suspect that Carp is a better hitter than Thames. Carp’s “regression” this year is unsustainable, fueled by injury and awful BABIP luck. His 2011 production was NOT based on an unsustainable BABIP, since his xBABIP as estimated by his hit trajectory was .335 and his BABIP was only .343.
Perhaps most meaningfully, we have Carp’s 2012 plate discipline profile. He hasn’t seen many PAs this season, but he’s had enough for most of the plate discipline statistics to stabilize, and he’s showing huge improvement. Contact rate is up seven percentage points to about 80%. His O-Swing% is down 7 percentage points and Z-swing up two, SwSTR% down to 8% from 11%, and his walks and strikeouts have improved accordingly. Best of all, the power appears to still be there (.145 ISO for a 2012 Mariner is great).
Before 2012, word on Carp was that he needed to improve his plate approach while keeping his newfound power in order to become a major league starter. He did it. Time to put him at first base for a season and see what happens.
If the choice is just between Carp or Smoak – yeah, I want to see Carp. I’d like to see the team go for a first baseman with more pop though, if that person is available on a non-ridiculous contract. Carp’s 2012 ISO is rather below that of Seager, Wells, Saunders and Jaso (not to mention Thames and Guti, who don’t have the same number of PAs).
On a side note – when I popped over to Fangraphs and sorted the 2012 Mariners by ISO, there at the top is Felix Hernandez! 😀 (yeah I know, I know…)
The problem is that the first base market is awful (Napoli and Swisher, that’s it) and all of the good first basemen are either young and going to be ridiculously expensive via trade or are on way-too-big contracts. Since it’s unlikely that anyone will be cheaply acquired, we may as well stick with Carp, who I think will produce reasonably well.
Wedge has already stated he is going to rotate Montero at 1b/DH/C in spring training so he has 3 ways to get him in the lineup. The team already has Jaso, Montero and Zunino (soon?)/Olivo (please no) or another stop-gap FA signing. There is nothing wrong with using Carp as the team’s 5th OF/1b/DH next year while also rotating Montero and others there. Looking at the current roster and available FA options, the Mariners are not likely to sign a 1b or DH. However, as noted above there is at least a few OF options that may provide good value, and at least a couple catchers worthy of stop-gap consideration.
It seems like the team is at the point in the development curve where it makes sense to be checking in with all the other clubs, looking to find a team that has grown slightly sick of a borderline all-star type OF and has a slightly inflated view of one or more of our players. Maybe there is a key component out there that can be obtained for a Franklin/Smoak, Paxton/Wells, or Romero/Saunders type package. Those are the kinds of trades that didn’t make sense a year ago but have to be made and won somewhere along the way. Trades like that hurt a bit, but all fair trades do.
What Wedge says today may not be relevant come spring. We have no idea what moves Jack will make. I would be surprised if he was comfortable and/or confident with his current options, given Carp’s injury-prone season with minimal results, Smoak’s inability to hit, and Montero having zero experience there.
Having said that, I’m with Westy. Given the current options, I’d like to see more of Carp. Maybe Liddi steps it up and makes a case for himself, though?
Melky Cabrera? Seriously?
Assuming he’s even in American pro ball next year after the crap he’s pulled, I think I’ll stick my head in the stove if the M’s sign him. Until the last two years, when the results have become rather suspect in retrospect, he’s basically a sixth guy who fits the profile Dave is talking about as the root of the problem here.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4022&position=OF
The only substantive difference is a better K% than the current menagerie of outfielders, but other than that the profile was pretty similar until his, um, recent breakout.
“Thames and Robinson each have options left (I think two each), and it seems like Casper is probably out of them.”
Time for someone to give us the skinny on options.
[ As I understand it, a player has three option years (with an unlimited number of farm-outs) in his first five years in MLB.]
re options: there are some variations depending on the age when signed and a bunch of other stuff, but the general parameters as I understand them ….
After three years a player must either be placed on the 40-man roster or exposed to the minor league Rule 5 draft. Once a player is on the 40-man roster, he then has three option years. An option is burned whenever a player on the 40-man roster is sent to the minor leagues, but options are good for an entire season. So once a player has been optioned during a season he can be moved back and forth as many times as desired without using another option.
When a player has no options left, if he is on the 40-man roster he must also be on the 25-man active squad (unless he’s on the DL or on some other special status).
I believe that a player with three years of major league experience can decline a reassignment to the minor leagues, even if the player has remaining options.
I’m surprised by Dave’s conclusion that an outfielder is the team’s greatest need. If park factors were based on 2012 numbers alone, I’m pretty sure all of Saunders, Wells, and Gutierrez (with his admittedly small sample size) would have a wRC+ north of 100. All are capable defenders. If Carp returns to form and is thrown into the mix, the outfield is fine.
If we look only at the team’s away stats as a proxy for cancelling out the strange effects of Safeco Field, what’s interesting is that the team’s pitching is ranked 8th worst of 30 measured in terms of wOBA (Felix notwithstanding). I would think fixing the starting pitching problem is a much greater need.
The majority of Guti’s health problems seem to be of the fluky variety. Other than that stomach problem, Guti’s had more “bad luck” than chronic health problems. He should be fine going forward.
I’m fine with Saunders as our left fielder and backup center fielder. His all-around ability makes him fairly valuable.
I’d love to see us grab a right field free agent this winter. I’m not sold on any of our other young options.