Game 30, Orioles at Mariners
Aaron Harang vs. Wei-Yin Chen, 7:10pm
The M’s made a personnel move today, sending Blake Beavan down to Tacoma and recalling lefty Lucas Luetge. This season’s been an absolute disaster for Beavan; his attempt to change his arm slot has to rival Dustin Ackley’s abortive swing change for the least successful tweak in baseball. Since he came up in 2011, Blake Beavan actually adjusted his arm angle twice. He moved it upwards in 2012 too, but that didn’t seem to do much. The pre-2013 tweak got more attention, in part because he went outside the org to work on the change and because it was thought that the change would help his consistency from pitch to pitch. During the spring, his delivery did seem to be more over-the-top, but the actual adjustment was fairly small. It was no bigger than his 2011-to-2012 change, and while it made his pitches move slightly differently, it certainly wasn’t a mechanical overhaul.
So far during the regular season, Beavan’s given away most of that increase in his vertical release point – it’s now pretty much exactly where it was in September of last year. More worryingly, while a more over-the-top delivery can produce a downward plane and reduce platoon splits, it hasn’t helped Beavan against *right* handed hitters. In his 2011 campaign, Beavan got killed by lefties (.370 wOBA), but held righties to a stingy .287 wOBA and a 4.30 FIP. That’s not great, especially as the wOBA was BABIP driven, but it’s not awful. In 2012, after increasing his vertical release point, his wOBA to righties was up to .319 while his wOBA against lefties remained terrible. So far in 2013, he’s gotten killed by right-handers. Beavan never struck out many righties, despite throwing plenty of sliders and curves, but his low BABIP may have been related to pop-ups and high flies he was able to generate. At this point, I might have Beavan go back to a much flatter, more low-3/4 arm angle and see if he’s able to get righties out again.* It’s also quite possible that his entire 1+ year record of being moderately troubling to right-handed hitters was a BABIP mirage, in which case there’s not a whole lot to do.
That’s an awful lot about a minor transaction, and I realize I probably write about Beavan too much as it is. But it’s actually odd how many similarities you can spot between Beavan and tonight’s Oriole starter, Wei-Yin Chen. Like Beavan, Chen’s been an extreme fly-ball pitcher – his 35.6% career GB rate is actually a tiny bit lower than Beavan’s 37.1%. He throws a four-seam fastball at 90-91mph, that’s generated a touch over 11″ of vertical movement, giving it the appearance of ‘rise.’ Beavan throws a four-seam fastball at 91mph getting just under 11″ of vertical movement this year. Sure, it’s not perfect as Chen’s a lefty and 90-91 from a lefty’s qualitatively different than 90-91 from a righty, but this illustrates just how fine the differences in command, deception and consistency are and the differences they can make in results. Chen struck out about 19% of the batters he faced last year, whereas Beavan…did not.
Chen’s K% is down so far this year, but he’s faced a pretty tough group of opponents: Tampa, Boston, the Yankees, the Dodgers and finally Oakland. Despite that, his RA is sterling and his FIP’s lower thanks to a drop in his Beavan-esque HR/9. That said, this is a better match-up for the M’s than Jason Hammel. It’s not a great match-up, and the Orioles line-up is still tough against a righty who’s giving up more hard contact than Brandon Maurer. I’m going to watch the Chris Davis at-bats through my fingers. OK, nevermind, this isn’t a great match-up at all. Aaron Harang looked sort of intriguing in his first start, but really, really looked like a guy who’d just been DFA’d by the Rockies recently. C’mon M’s. Poach a game.
1: Saunders, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Morales, DH
4: Morse, RF
5: Bay, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Ackley, 2B
8: Montero, C
9: Andino, SS
SP: Harang
I’d be tempted to put Montero at 6th, but this line-up makes sense against a lefty like Chen.
Jimmy Gilheeney was excellent in his AAA debut, throwing 6+ shutout innings with 9 Ks. Nick Franklin went 3-3 and is now batting .410/.538/.623, which is a pretty decent batting line. He’s certainly making things interesting for the FO. Andrew Carraway gets the start tonight against Tucson – it’s his first appearance since losing his no-hit bid late in the game in Las Vegas. Taijuan Walker takes the hill for Jackson, Trevor Miller starts for High Desert and Tyler Pike gets the ball for Clinton. Good day in M’s prospect land.
* Since the beginning of 2012, Beavan’s used a sinker a lot more, and his four-seamer less often. Correlation is not causation and all of that, but the sinker’s generated terrible results. I suggested he throw it more going into 2012, so it’s not like it was a terrible idea…it’s just a terrible pitch. Going back to a four-seam/curve/change/slider repertoire couldn’t hurt, I suppose.
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Morse!!!!
Sea Beast!
Opportunity to improve those miserable RISP with 2-out numbers.
Morse on cue!
Chen with 90+ pitches in 4 innings. Bay making him work.
Makes him work and then looks at strike 3…
Is it just gameday or is this ump squeezing the pitcher a bit?
And I don’t want to be a jinx but after four innings Harang with a one-hitter, no walks on 51 pitches. I was not expecting that.
Lead off walk. I jinxed it.
Yeah, Andino blew that. Nice job by Ackley to nearly pull it off anyway.
Where did the “Sea Beast” moniker come from?
Hey, I just got home. Did Jesus Montero really hit a triple? How many outfielders were badly injured on the play?
Jones was only stunned for a moment on the triple.
Can we hurry up and DFA Smoak please?
Is it petty of me to just want to see the Mariners finish better than the Angels this season?
To be honest, I want them to finish better than the Angels every season.
uh-oh
Man, this is risky.
Phew!!!
0-2 count on Seager, again, and I do believe he said “Fuck me.” Yes, sir, that would be right.
Thank goodness Jones seems to have peanut butter in his glove tonight.
Productive out!
Harang with a “Quality Start”… to lower his ERA to 8.68. Hey, it works if the Mariners score 8 runs a game.
Sims has used the term “blueprint working” several times tonight and I don’t think he is just referring to this game.
Interesting.
Carter Capps is hilariously scarecrow-like.
I’ve heard of a “working blueprint” but to suggest the Mariner’s “blueprint is working” is just a wacky thing to say. Does mgmt pay Sim every time he repeats or exaggerates a cliche?
Ackley’s hitting streak is in danger. But at least he has made it on base, along with all the other M’s…except for Andino.
Ryan is rotting/rooting on the bench while the Andino is rotting at bat and not the best in the field. Might as well put Ryan back in the lineup. At least the M’s will have a chance to turn a few more DP’s. Bob’s has had his opportunity but his adrenaline well has run dry.
Isn’t the buffalo’s name Bob?
Capps is night and day. The previous inning he flew through the bottom of the order. Then this latest inning he sees the top/meat of the order. And they see him and then he’s gone.
Is Capps just not a 2-inning guy?
All we ask is one run in, Smoak. A walk, a groundball (not a DP) or a fly ball.
Curse that man!
I really want Smoak to not GIDP so that Ackley can extend his hit streak, even though hit streaks aren’t very meaningful.
Sigh.
KKHHAAANNNNN!!!
Damn it, Smoak. You had that pitcher in ALL KINDS of trouble. I know it’s an 8-3 game, our favor…but you gave up that at-bat. You coulda hit 2-1.
Ah, well…that’s splitting hairs about the Smoak at-bat, I guess. Nice win, guys. Love it when a few base hits get strung together.
Adding a non-sucky bat to the line-up does wonders…
4 games out of the wild card, baby!
Anybody know what’s up with Zunino? Is he catching the Mariner hitting disease?
If Bay actually returns to being a useful hitter (which he was before joining the Mets in 2010), I’ll have to actually give Wedge credit. And I’ll get to imagine Mets fans saying, “why do they always get better when they leave?”
Anybody know what’s up with Zunino? Is he catching the Mariner hitting disease?
His BA is low, but his slugging is only behind Franklin and Thames on the team.
So maybe he’s swinging for the fences a little too much.
Being exploited by breaking and offspeed pitches. In other words, he’s getting his first dose of “learning”. Gives us something to watch and proves he isn’t close to ready yet.
I’m liking Bay lately. The team seems to be showing signs of life too. Rotation spots 3,4,5 are problematic but still.
I am hoping to see Ackley go to AAA and have someone else come up. Maybe not Franklin quite yet but someone. Never a fan of rushing anyone. Ackley is becoming a big concern (or is!). Maybe Truinfel gets a look?
how is Ackley “becoming a big concern” when he is hitting .355 with .400 slugging over the last 14 days. If he hits the same over the next two weeks think he should be hitting at the top of the order and us voting for him for allstar game not wasting his time in Tacoma. This comment is a head scratcher for me when he is also playing solid defence and is arguably our best base runner.
I still think Ackley is going to be a .300 hitter and a .375OBP guy in the MLB.
I am hoping to see Ackley go to AAA and have someone else come up. Maybe not Franklin quite yet but someone. Never a fan of rushing anyone. Ackley is becoming a big concern (or is!). Maybe Truinfel gets a look?
Why would you want someone else? As Casey pointed out, he’s been hot for two weeks now, plays excellent defense, and offers speed. I fail to see what the concern is. Lack of power? I wouldn’t worry about that.
If anyone needs to be replaced, it’s Ibanez and/or Andino. Triunfel might be worth a shot, but he K’s a lot and offers little in the way of defense. Franklin has 17 games played and only a handful of those were at short, so he probably isn’t ready just yet.