Mariners and Padres Begin Split Series

Matthew Carruth · May 27, 2013 at 11:57 am · Filed Under Mariners 
MARINERS (21-29) ΔMs PADRES (22-27) EDGE
HITTING (wOBA*) -9.6 (19th) -0.7 8.4 (13th) Padres
FIELDING (RBBIP) -10.5 (22nd) -4.6 9.1 (12th) Padres
ROTATION (xRA) 13.2 (8th) 4.4 -23.7 (25th) Mariners
BULLPEN (xRA) 6.4 (6th) 1.8 -3.0 (18th) Mariners
OVERALL (RAA) -0.5 (16th) 0.9 -9.3 (18th) MARINERS

The Mariners broke the streak and managed to avoid falling to a 65-win pace. They’re currently on a 68-win pace instead! There’s no time like the near present to continue improving that projection though, the Padres are no juggernaut.

It’s Memorial Day and I have lots of other stuff to do, so my apologies but this will be a brief (actually brief and not a fake brief that turns into thousands of words like Sullivan does) post. Today’s game thread is directly below.

Batter PA P/PA Slash line nBB K (sw) 1B/2B/3B/HR Sw- Ct+ Qual+
K Morales^ 55 3.7 .373/.418/.627 4 10 (7) 10 / 7 / 0 / 2 100 97 139
K Seager* 51 4.0 .250/.294/.479 3 7 (6) 5 / 5 / 0 / 2 96 108 118
M Saunders* 48 3.5 .109/.167/.152 2 19 (16) 3 / 2 / 0 / 0 110 86 61
M Morse 47 3.8 .286/.383/.381 5 8 (6) 10 / 1 / 0 / 1 103 92 95
B Ryan 44 3.6 .390/.432/.561 3 8 (6) 11 / 4 / 0 / 1 107 100 111
D Ackley* 42 4.0 .114/.262/.143 7 8 (3) 3 / 1 / 0 / 0 75 113 89
R Ibanez* 40 3.6 .308/.325/.795 1 9 (8) 5 / 1 / 0 / 6 106 89 137
J Smoak^ 39 4.3 .257/.333/.457 4 11 (9) 6 / 1 / 0 / 2 92 99 89
J Bay 27 4.2 .217/.333/.261 4 8 (8) 4 / 1 / 0 / 0 92 79 160
K Shoppach 23 3.3 .095/.174/.095 2 9 (7) 2 / 0 / 0 / 0 100 72 34

Do you have a mental image of how bad Brendan Ryan has been as a hitter this year? I’m not speaking of his hot streak only or his abysmal lousy streak all other times except the past two weeks. I mean, over the course of the entire year. Got it? Ok, Dustin Ackley has been that bad. The two have nearly similar offensive performances this year. That’s depressing, for Ackley. In fact, after yesterday, Ryan actually holds the better line of the two. Small wonder that Ackley finally finds himself heading back to Tacoma.

Batter PA P/PA Slash line nBB SO (sw) 1B/2B/3B/HR Sw- Ct+ Qual+
E Cabrera^ 56 3.7 .340/.429/.520 6 7 (4) 13 / 1 / 1 / 2 96 114 96
J Gyorko 51 3.8 .326/.392/.522 5 8 (7) 10 / 3 / 0 / 2 106 102 85
C Headley^ 50 3.9 .195/.373/.220 9 9 (9) 7 / 1 / 0 / 0 84 82 73
C Denorfia 44 3.8 .310/.364/.357 1 6 (5) 11 / 2 / 0 / 0 94 103 65
Y Alonso* 44 2.8 .310/.333/.476 1 2 (2) 10 / 1 / 0 / 2 116 116 87
W Venable* 39 3.7 .184/.205/.395 1 6 (5) 3 / 2 / 0 / 2 122 103 109
C Quentin 30 3.8 .333/.400/.704 3 3 (2) 3 / 4 / 0 / 2 123 106 121
N Hundley 30 3.4 .192/.267/.231 3 6 (5) 4 / 1 / 0 / 0 135 100 106
K Blanks 30 4.3 .333/.467/.630 3 4 (3) 5 / 2 / 0 / 2 115 107 158
A Amarista* 23 3.8 .429/.478/.667 2 2 (2) 6 / 2 / 0 / 1 123 105 127
MARINERS ΔMs PADRES EDGE
INFIELD -1.9 (20th) -4.6 13.8 (3rd) Padres
OUTFIELD -8.6 (25th) 0.0 -4.8 (22nd) Padres
RBBIP 0.316 (21st) +.004 0.297 (8th) Padres
OVERALL -10.5 (22nd) -4.6 9.1 (12th) PADRES

The biggest slumpers of all over the past week plus has been the defense. I’m not sure less Ryan and Ackley and more Trinful and Franklin will alleviate that, but getting Franklin Gutierrez back sure would. Come back soon, Guti.

27 MAY 13:10 – AARON HARANG vs CLAYTON RICHARD*

Aaron Harang, then Brandon Maurer, finally followed by Joe Saunders on the road. No wonder the Mariners made a bullpen move to get a long man (Noesi) in place of a situational (Luetge) one. This could be a short series for the starters, which could make it a long series for the pen, and us.

28 MAY 19:10 – BRANDON MAURER vs EDINSON VOLQUEZ

Great news for Edinson Volquez fans, he’s finally lowered his walk rate under 10%, for the first time in ever. Bad news, his contact rate has surged and his strikeouts have plummeted. It’s not represented fully in the graph below since I use a rolling two-year data window to compile these to avoid small samples and injury stuff from throwing off a pitcher’s general skills, but Volquez is markedly different so far this season.

29 MAY 19:10 – ERIC STULTS* vs JOE SAUNDERS*

Stults’ strikeout rates aren’t as bad as you’d assume from looking at his whiff% below. He does a poor job of missing bats to be sure — his contact rate is currently seven points above the NL average for starters — but he gets a fair amount of called strikeouts with his offspeed stuff, and he does a fair job of pitching around the zone.

30 MAY 12:40 – ANDREW CASHNER vs FELIX HERNANDEZ

One final May start for Felix. He hasn’t even been bad this month, despite the reputation for struggling in May and some scuffling in the past two outings. The big difference between April Felix and May Felix (in 2013) is this:

BABIP April ’13: .277
BABIP May ’13: .375

The strikeouts, the walks, and the home runs are all chugging along at similar rates. But in May some combination of batted balls and the defense have failed Felix.

Reliever BF Str+ nBB Ct- K(sw) GB+ HR Qual- LI
C Furbush* 45 103 3 87 15 (10) 75 2 130 1.0
Y Medina 41 87 5 97 10 (5) 130 0 65 1.5
C Capps 38 104 1 94 12 (8) 63 2 92 1.1
O Perez* 37 101 4 89 16 (13) 80 1 116 1.1
T Wilhelmsen 36 100 2 95 8 (7) 121 0 128 2.0
L Luetge* 32 101 3 101 7 (5) 143 2 103 0.6
D Farquhar 24 98 2 100 9 (7) 104 0 111 0.4

As mentioned in other posts, Hector Noesi returns to the Seattle pen and Lucas Luetge returns to Tacoma’s pen. I doubt it will be the last time those two exchange rosters this season.

Reliever BF Str+ nBB Ct- K(sw) GB+ HR Qual- LI
A Bass 55 101 4 89 10 (10) 115 1 108 0.3
T Ross 41 102 4 116 6 (5) 109 1 111 0.3
T Stauffer 36 103 2 90 12 (9) 102 0 130 0.5
H Street 35 98 4 96 8 (7) 82 3 74 1.8
D Thayer 34 106 3 100 7 (5) 84 2 85 1.3
L Gregerson 30 108 2 96 7 (6) 118 0 61 0.8
J Thatcher* 27 109 0 106 6 (2) 86 0 123 0.8
B Brach 26 100 3 110 4 (3) 107 0 65 0.5

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Comments

3 Responses to “Mariners and Padres Begin Split Series”

  1. BillyJive on May 27th, 2013 12:23 pm

    I like all the pretty colors. Nice job!

  2. Section329 on May 27th, 2013 12:55 pm

    Thank god-they have optioned Ackley and Lucas to AAA, Franklin and Noesi are up.
    Dustin needs the chance to figure things out away from the big stage.

  3. SeattleSlew on May 28th, 2013 7:28 am

    FIRE WEDGE!

    He needs the chance to figure things out away from the big state..

    MLB 2k13 maybe.

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