In Happier News
Taijuan Walker last night: 26 batters faced, 6 hits, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 12 K
Taijuan Walker, last three starts: 72 batters faced, 12 hits, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 28 K
That’s a 39% strikeout rate over his last three outings, way up from the 25% strikeout rate he was posting in his previous 11 starts. And, obviously, the one walk in three starts is terrific for a guy who has had command problems.
I think, in general, the Mariners pitching prospects have been overhyped. James Paxton is probably a reliever if he’s anything in the big leagues. Danny Hultzen is not a sure thing from a health or performance standpoint. Brandon Maurer needs to develop his curve or change-up or he’s going to profile as a bullpen piece. There’s not a lot of good pitching depth behind those guys, as you’ve seen at the big league level.
Walker, though, is legit. The Mariners should resist the urge to rush him, but I wouldn’t be surprsied if he was pitching in Seattle early next year.
I appreciate Justin Upton more and more each day.
Medina was a starter in the minors. Now that he appears to have put his control issues behind him — last night notwithstanding — and he appears to have two acceptable “out” pitches, why not stretch him out and see if he’s a starting option? I’d rather see his stuff in the rotation than Bonderman’s.
44% of Medina’s pitches this year have been in the strike zone. He’s only thrown a first pitch strike 45% of the time. His walk rate is 15.4%, which is basically equal to Carlos Marmol’s career BB%.
Describing his control problems as “behind him” is weird.
I agree that the Mariners shouldn’t rush Walker, but I hope that sending the guy to Tacoma soon is in the cards.
I don’t know that pitching in AAA is much harder than AA, but Hultzen did find it a new challenge.
They should move him up to Tacoma before too long, hopefully to replace Erasmo when is called up to The Show to replace one of the Three Stooges.
Well I guess that’s why not then.
I’ve been completely enamored of Tai Walker for a few years now…if they trade him, I’ll be heartbroken. I was so relieved when Upton kiboshed the M’s trade…
I really, really love Taijuan Walker. I’m trying hard not to fall in love too quickly with Edwin Diaz after his season debut last night as well.
Even if Walker is the only head of Cerberus to turns into an above average major league starter as long as Erasmo can stay healthy the M’s are still in pretty good shape going forward with Felix, Iwakuma, Ramirez and Walker.
I’m really excited to see how Gohara does tonight.
Kind of shocked that anyone still considers Paxton a SP at this point. Bite the bullet and call him up for the pen.
At this point I think I’d be happy if one of the names mentioned above becomes a mainstay in the Mariners’ rotation. Not because I’m giving up on Hultzen, Paxton, or Maurer but it seems like unless you’re the Cardinals you’re probably lucky to have a 25% success rate on pitching prospects.
Is there a study/figure somewhere that approximates this for pitching prospects who are, say ranked in the top 100 at any point in their career?
It speaks to a sad state of affairs that 1/4th of the “best” prospects in the organization actually being legit is happy news.
Yeah maybe my expectations are extremely low, but that’s probably a byproduct of being a Mariners fan.
To be fair, I don’t think I’d be quite as happy with 25% on all prospects, just pitching prospects.
The big three that we have read so much about seems to be falling by the wayside. You don’t know what to believe.
This post actually made me reconsider an assumption I had made about GMZ. That the draft and scouting are the organization’s strengths.
We’re still early in the cycle, but at the moment — I think I’m reconsidering my assumptions about the current regime’s strengths and weaknesses.
25% is actually very good for prospect pitchers.
I wouldn’t close the book on the others just yet either.
Felix, Iwakuma, Erasmo, Hultzen, and Taijuan? One can dream
the M’s are still in pretty good shape going forward with Garcia, Meche, Piñeiro, Nageotte and Blackley…
… said someone, maybe even on this very blog, back in 2003-2004 or so.
Paxton only has 285 career innings pitched and yet is somehow holding his own at the second highest level of professional baseball. Yes, he’s 24 but he lost a year when he didn’t sign the first time he was drafted. While he may ultimately end up as a reliever, I hope they give him more time as a starter. I seem to recall this other tall lefty that took a while to develop but turned out to be pretty good in the end.
Good point, GLS.
I also don’t think it’s time to consign Hultzen and Maurer to the Clint Nageotte scrapheap just yet. Hultzen was pitching very well before the injury setback. There’s no such thing as a pitcher who’s impervious to injury red flags, of course.
Paxton only has 285 career innings pitched and yet is somehow holding his own at the second highest level of professional baseball.
He’s battled injuries as well, which is part of the reason for the low innings. But is he really holding his own? His walk rate has consistently sucked and his FIP this year is the highest it’s been in his professional career.
I’m still hopeful he’ll get it together, but I don’t think he’s very close.
I just think that players have different development timelines. For any one player to become a productive major leaguer is a pretty significant accomplishment. Paxton, from what I understand, has some mechanical issues with his delivery. Can those be fixed? I have no idea. What I know is that he’s a tall lefty that throws 95+ and generates a lot of strikeouts, so there’s probably some talent there that’s worth at least another season at AAA.
@stevemotivateir – I think he’s doing okay in the PCL, but obviously not great. If you look at his stat line, he’s obviously hittable, but he’s still generating swings and misses. I doubt hitters are comfortable facing him. Plus, he’s only had 14 starts (66 IP) at this level. Why are we in such a hurry to write him off?
I’m not sure if this works in his favor or not, but isn’t Paxton basically Erik Bedard? I mean he basically works with only a fastball and curveball, struggles with injuries, and doesn’t work very deep into games due to his style of pitching.
I’d be pretty disappointed if the Mariners gave up on Paxton as a starter. Even if he’s Bedard, I’d prefer that over a guy like Joe Saunders. Weaknesses aside, at least he strikes out a ton of batters. Plus, what happens if he suddenly gains strides in his command?
Paxton teases us. He flashes brilliance, then struggles. Really lacks consistency.
Of the touted pitching prospects, he’s the one I’ve felt should be packaged for an outfielder if possible.
I am very leery any more when I hear “can’t miss” or “projects very soon to the ML level.” In general a high pick is more likely to make it to the ML level, but high picks hit or miss just the same as low picks.
Like so much else, I’d guess it’s a combination of the skill of the player, the skill of the development coaches, and some luck thrown in that everything clicks along the way and injuries aren’t a problem.
Right on cue it’s announced that Walker is moving to AAA.
I would think 25% success on top pitching prospects is pretty darned good, actually, considering the volatility of the position, and difficulty of facing MLB hitters.
LookoutLanding had a pretty cool writeup a few weeks back that pondered if M’s prospects really do suck at becoming big leaguers moreso than other teams’ prospects.
Looking at Top 100 prospects and where they ended up, the success rate was awful.
They rattled through the Dodgers, Rays, Diamondbacks, Yankees, a bunch of top rated farm systems in the last decade and even amongst Top 10 rated prospects the success rate was under 50%. WAY under for the Dodgers and Yankees, who were considered to have the best farm systems during that time frame.
The good news– Felix Hernandez has the most MLB WAR of any player from the same era (at least the ones they mentioned– with Evan Longoria right behind him).
And the M’s are rated #2 for farm systems currently, with guys like Franklin, Zunino, Miller, Hultzen, Ramirez, Paxton, Walker, Morban and others considered close to MLB ready in the next 2 years. (The article was before Franklin and Zunino got called up…)
We’re so used to our guys coming up and sucking it could be absolutely shocking if half those guys end up Major Leaguers, but it’s also completely possible.
Jack Z should be fired for even contemplating trading walker for the rather pedestrian and expensive Justin Uopton. How long is Holtzen on the shelf?
Prospects are just prospects. No idea why people rave SO much about them. When they show at major league level then get excited. I guess it takes time for some to realize that.
The Mariners are a pretty sad sack franchise. The loveable losers. I don’t know what I’d do if they actually made it to the World Series. I can’t see them ever contending and just take it for what it’s worth.
I’m not sure if this works in his favor or not, but isn’t Paxton basically Erik Bedard? I mean he basically works with only a fastball and curveball, struggles with injuries, and doesn’t work very deep into games due to his style of pitching.
I’d be pretty disappointed if the Mariners gave up on Paxton as a starter. Even if he’s Bedard, I’d prefer that over a guy like Joe Saunders.
This is a terrible way to evaluate prospects. Just because you identify a few broad similarities between two pitchers is no reason to assume they’ll have equal value. For the M’s to get Bedard-level value out of Paxton’s team control years would be a 99th percentile outcome for Paxton.
And go look up Bedard’s minor league stats. He was dominant at every level, and never had Paxton’s control problems. There’s absolutely no good reason to expect a similar performance from Paxton. I’m on board with the “don’t give up quite yet” train of thinking, but the odds he’ll amount to a quality starter are pretty low, and the odds he turns into a Bedard-quality pitcher are probably in the ballpark of the odds of an M’s World Series victory in 2014.
Without stating the obvious, prospect evaluation in any sport is not an exact science – teams draft punters in front of Russell Wilson, Walker gets traded for Upton…. and guys like Travis Snider appear on top 10 lists from 2009-10…. etc
Yeah, I’m definitely not implying Paxton is going to perform like Erik Bedard at the major league level. It’s impossible to ignore the similarities though.
And the minor league numbers are similar:
Bedard: 11 K/9, 3 BB/9, 0.2 HR/9 (14 AA games, never played in AAA apart from rehabs, numbers mostly from lower minors)
Paxton: 10 K/9, 4 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9 (incl. 42 games in AA/AAA)
Per Ryan Divish, Walker has been promoted to Tacoma.
The Mariners, as an organization, are not impressing anyone. Ownership that doesn’t seem to care and does not spend a lot. Presidents that have been around for way too long. GMs that have little to work with and will probably never be around to see the fruits of their labor.
Here’s to hoping Paxton, Walker, Hultzen, Ramirez and Maurer do develop. You can look at the numbers all you want but we all know there is no certainty there. Go M’s go!
Paxton teases us. He flashes brilliance, then struggles. Really lacks consistency.
Of the touted pitching prospects, he’s the one I’ve felt should be packaged for an outfielder if possible.
I don’t disagree except that I might try to sell someone on a lower level player first. The intriguing part of Paxton is the upside potential if he puts it together. I guess what it comes down to is that these are the hard calls that your GM has to make and why talent evaluation is the most critical skill for a major league organization. You don’t want to be the club that gives up Shin Soo Choo for Ben Broussard or Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez or Adam Jones for Erik Bedard.
I’m on board with the “don’t give up quite yet” train of thinking, but the odds he’ll amount to a quality starter are pretty low, and the odds he turns into a Bedard-quality pitcher are probably in the ballpark of the odds of an M’s World Series victory in 2014.
First of all, you’re right. Statistically, it’s unlikely for any prospect to become a quality major leaguer. And yet, some do. Felix did, and so did many others. How did that happen?
I’ve thought about this a lot, and the only conclusion I’ve been able to come to is that talent evaluation is really, really important. If you’re trading prospects for major league players, you have to have an idea which one of your guys is going to have a superstar career and which one is likely to blow out his elbow or move to the bullpen, have a 5th starter career, etc. And I don’t know how you know that, except that you have to be engaged and you have to have good people working for you whose judgement you trust.