The Blame the Kids Game Continues

Dave · September 18, 2013 at 11:48 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Soon to be former Mariners manager Eric Wedge continued to lay groundwork yesterday for the spin he’s going to try and sell over the next 10 days. And, naturally, as with pretty much every veteran infatuated manager in charge of a losing team, he’s going to blame the failures of the team on the fact that they had so many young players. Per Ryan Divish:

“So many things have happened here when you talk about fundamentals,” Wedge said. “Whether it be the kids coming up quick a couple years ago, or last year or even this year, those are things you are going to have to live with – some of those mistakes until they figure it out. If you don’t have enough time in the minor leagues, then you have to finish them off up here.”

If it seems like this is happening every year, it’s because it has.

“We’ve got 8 or 9 players that made their major league debut this year,” Wedge said. “That’s quite a bit. And we have like 30 some in three years. When you are breaking in that many young players, you are going to have young mistakes. We’ve got 20 some players with less than years experience coming into this season. That’s a big number. So you have to be patient and work through. It’s a rebuild. It’s what it was when I got here.”

Wedge is right in the fact that the Mariners have used a lot of young players during his three years at the helm. In fact, no team has given more plate appearances to players 25 and under over the last three years. So, vindication, right? Wedge correctly noted that the team has gone young during his tenure, and at least on the position player side of things — the pitchers have skewed a bit older — the data supports his assertion. Well, at least the part about the quantity of young players and the amount of playing time they’ve gotten.

The inference is that there’s causation here. These comments are very clearly an attempted explanation for why the team has been bad while he’s been in charge. The last two sentences basically sum it up. Wedge is saying that he was hired to build a young club, and because of that job, the losses should have been expected, since those young players just weren’t experienced enough to help the team win yet.

Here’s the problem, though. The 25-and-unders have accounted for 43% of the Mariners total plate appearances during the last three years, more than anyone else in baseball, but they’ve also accounted for 66% of the total WAR by position players, also the highest proportion in the game. And yes, if you’re doing some basic subtraction from the numbers in that last sentence, that means that the 26+ players accounted for just 1/3 of the total position player WAR despite garnering almost 3/5 of the plate appearances.

Here are the team totals for both 25-and-unders and 26+, 2011 to 2013. Note where the Mariners rank in each.

First, the young inexperienced kids.


# Team PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld + Pos BsR WAR
1 Angels 3753 .276 .344 .463 .349 124 44.8 28.4 31.8
2 Braves 5556 .262 .334 .428 .332 110 3.6 11.2 26.8
3 Giants 4224 .278 .341 .433 .335 116 45.3 -9.9 26.3
4 D’backs 5408 .272 .348 .439 .341 110 -8.2 18.8 25.9
5 Pirates 6400 .261 .327 .411 .323 105 -19.3 8.9 23.9
6 Nationals 5295 .259 .322 .412 .321 101 35.3 0.0 22.0
7 Indians 5076 .258 .323 .406 .319 103 -11.2 10.5 19.1
8 Royals 6606 .271 .319 .405 .315 95 -17.4 -0.9 17.0
9 Padres 4915 .246 .315 .371 .302 95 -2.2 22.8 15.3
10 Tigers 3116 .270 .342 .422 .335 108 14.0 -2.1 15.1
11 Rays 2056 .248 .326 .419 .326 109 27.3 10.9 13.2
12 Mariners 7590 .240 .302 .383 .301 92 -49.5 -0.4 13.1
13 Marlins 5611 .251 .323 .415 .322 101 -50.3 -8.7 12.8
14 Cubs 5191 .258 .310 .389 .306 87 37.8 -3.1 12.7
15 Rockies 4492 .273 .321 .437 .328 92 -1.1 12.9 11.7
16 Orioles 2827 .261 .308 .413 .315 94 32.1 3.4 11.4
17 Brewers 2513 .267 .315 .416 .320 99 25.8 4.3 11.2
18 Rangers 3805 .264 .324 .364 .306 84 21.7 26.7 11.1
19 Mets 4559 .250 .314 .372 .302 91 4.7 -7.3 10.1
20 Reds 2686 .249 .316 .431 .322 100 -6.2 -4.0 7.8
21 Athletics 3028 .235 .309 .382 .304 92 -12.6 3.3 6.5
22 Blue Jays 4301 .242 .296 .406 .306 88 -22.4 0.5 6.4
23 Phillies 1930 .265 .318 .422 .321 101 -20.7 -1.0 4.3
24 Dodgers 1771 .259 .319 .371 .304 94 -12.1 6.4 3.9
25 Cardinals 2498 .241 .307 .356 .291 83 -1.5 2.2 3.2
26 Astros 6440 .256 .309 .373 .300 87 -85.0 -3.3 2.5
27 White Sox 3921 .243 .295 .371 .294 78 -5.9 -5.2 1.9
28 Red Sox 1875 .246 .296 .389 .300 82 -10.2 -0.1 1.3
29 Twins 4159 .246 .300 .355 .291 80 -37.7 8.6 1.1
30 Yankees 1019 .251 .304 .360 .293 79 -18.5 2.3 -0.9

Now, for the proven veterans who have been around the block and understand what it takes to win at this level.


# Team PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld + Pos BsR WAR
1 Red Sox 16623 .276 .343 .447 .343 112 44.7 -2.2 86.1
2 Cardinals 14759 .286 .353 .443 .346 121 -80.9 -11.0 77.0
3 Yankees 17086 .259 .333 .432 .334 107 -7.6 5.6 73.7
4 Rangers 14307 .276 .336 .462 .345 111 -6.4 0.6 68.7
5 Reds 14544 .261 .334 .414 .327 103 93.8 17.2 65.9
6 Rays 15847 .247 .323 .401 .318 104 30.9 1.0 65.4
7 Brewers 14458 .263 .331 .435 .333 108 -19.1 -1.4 59.9
8 Dodgers 15135 .265 .331 .395 .318 103 42.5 -11.2 59.2
9 Tigers 15131 .279 .341 .435 .338 111 -126.3 -37.0 55.0
10 Angels 14234 .262 .321 .408 .318 103 -2.1 -2.8 53.6
11 Athletics 14966 .247 .317 .399 .315 99 -49.1 3.8 46.1
12 Phillies 15064 .258 .324 .406 .319 99 -24.9 6.4 45.6
13 Diamondbacks 11634 .259 .325 .413 .322 97 112.2 -24.9 43.9
14 Giants 12790 .262 .320 .383 .308 98 9.1 18.1 42.2
15 Mets 12647 .260 .332 .404 .322 105 -113.8 33.4 41.9
16 Padres 11949 .251 .321 .384 .310 99 5.1 13.0 40.7
17 Orioles 15085 .254 .315 .424 .322 99 -97.2 -4.7 39.2
18 Braves 11419 .249 .320 .395 .313 97 67.9 -13.3 39.2
19 Royals 11432 .265 .322 .396 .314 94 33.5 20.8 37.5
20 Nationals 11663 .259 .323 .419 .323 102 -51.2 -1.1 36.8
21 Blue Jays 13624 .251 .321 .414 .321 99 -110.0 21.6 36.2
22 Rockies 12688 .273 .340 .433 .336 97 -69.0 12.2 32.0
23 Cubs 11617 .248 .316 .408 .317 94 22.6 -20.6 30.5
24 Twins 13762 .252 .320 .386 .311 94 -68.2 -9.5 28.9
25 White Sox 13946 .256 .320 .404 .317 94 -68.9 -22.1 28.4
26 Pirates 10394 .247 .311 .394 .309 95 -3.2 -19.9 26.1
27 Indians 12937 .249 .322 .392 .315 100 -171.4 -17.8 24.9
28 Astros 10643 .247 .310 .390 .308 92 -23.6 -7.7 22.6
29 Marlins 11317 .246 .309 .365 .297 83 -26.5 19.7 13.1
30 Mariners 10114 .233 .296 .359 .289 83 -57.2 -9.0 6.9

There’s no way to spin this; the position players the Mariners have employed over the last three years that had a modicum of experience have been almost universally terrible. No team in the league has gotten less production from players over the age of 26 during the Eric Wedge era. No team is even close.

The Mariners young players have not been as good as the organization hoped. There’s no question that being 1st in under-25 PAs and 12th in under-25 WAR is a problem, and speaks to the lack of production the team has gotten from several players that they thought were part of their core nucleus. But, there’s no way around the fact that the real problem on the 2011 to 2013 Mariners is that their veteran position players have been hilariously awful. Worst in the league awful. Getting circles run around them by the Astros awful.

I don’t blame Wedge for making these kinds of comments. He knows he’s a week and a half away from being unemployed, and these are the kinds of things that lame duck managers say at the end of frustrating seasons. However, just because he’s saying them doesn’t make them true. You’re going to see these things printed, unchallenged, and basically let stand as declarations, but the blame the kids mantra continues to be factually incorrect.

The 2011 to 2013 Mariners have been terrible primarily because their veterans have been terrible. The kids have been a disappointment, but the experienced players have been a catastrophe. Plain and simple, this team has lost a lot of games because the organization failed to put a useful crop of big league players around the kids they were trying to develop. It might be easy and convenient for Wedge to now simply use the amount of young players the team used as a reason for why the team has lost, but the facts suggest otherwise. The Mariners young players have been disappointing and below average, but the Mariners old players have been cover your eyes terrible.

And that’s why this team has been an embarrassment. And that’s why Eric Wedge is going to lose his job.

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Comments

58 Responses to “The Blame the Kids Game Continues”

  1. eponymous coward on September 19th, 2013 7:41 pm

    … and the Marlins and Astros (the two teams directly above us) have deliberately been dumping salary and veterans during that 3 year stretch. The M’s, not so much, they’ve actually been trying with signing/retaining guys like Wilson, Olivo, Cust, Kennedy, Ryan, Jaso, Ibañez, Morales, Bay during the past 3 years.

    The bottom line is that if we had been minimally more competent (not GOOD at extracting value from veterans, merely not as bad), we’d probably be looking at 20 or so more wins the last 3 years. In other words, it takes us from being in the toilet averaging low 70’s, to being where Oakland was from 2007-2011, averaging high 70’s; not good by any stretch of the imagination, but not circling the drain with a bunch of problems that ALL have to be solved simultaneously to make the team good, and not having to throw young players into the breach (and adding to the organization’s flailing) because the veterans are so hilariously awful, as Dave puts it.

    In other words: Jack Zduriencik is no Billy Beane, He’s failed at the task of “put a minimally competent supporting cast of veterans on the field while you develop your kids, so they aren’t being rushed and aren’t losing 90 every year” (something Billy Beane has never done in his career), despite starting with a) Felix and b) a pretty big lump of free salary to work with.

  2. qwerty on September 19th, 2013 8:04 pm

    Ok, I’m convinced. Now I want to see Dave’s posting of new GM candidates.

    My new Mgr is Chili Davis.

  3. stevemotivateir on September 19th, 2013 8:32 pm

    Jack Zduriencik is no Billy Beane

    I would argue that Jack’s value is equal to that of Billy’s….. as a player.

  4. currcoug on September 20th, 2013 10:58 am

    Crazy,

    Agree with your argument in principle…but we probably have different ideas of what constitutes “good”. I would argue that Raul had one “really bad” month, and one “below average” month based on OPS.

    April: .511 OPS
    May: 1.031 OPS
    June: .892 OPS
    July: .824 OPS
    August: .663 OPS
    September: .941 OPS

    I fully realize the above numbers do not reflect base running, steals, etc.

    Again, I wasn’t thrilled with the idea of bringing in another geezer (Ibanez), particularly one that struggles against LHP. This season, however, his splits went the other way (.811/.828 OPS).

  5. VivaAyala on September 20th, 2013 11:21 am

    Really good article overall. The problem with the Mariners of late clearly has been their veteran position players.

    Still, it strikes me as a bit weird to single out Raul in the comments as being “terrible.” By fWAR, which gives him full demerits for his sketchy defense, Ibanez is fifth on the team at .6, and clearly above replacement. He’s not good, mind you, and the fact that he’s fifth is yet another damning indictment of the construction of this team.

    Even so, it seems that the vitriol should be saved for the truly execrable players like Morse and Chavez, for instance, who can’t/couldn’t field or hit. Ibanez, at least, has been doing one of his duties right. Below average but above replacement, in my mind, isn’t “terrible.”

  6. eponymous coward on September 20th, 2013 11:26 am

    Actually, when you account for the position they play, the best offensive players on the team are Seager, Raul, Morales.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=11&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

    If you look at MLB, none of the M’s players are in the top 30 offensive players.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

    Seager makes the top 60 at #54.

    Raul Ibanez doesn’t qualify for the batting title, but he’s at #68 here:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19%2cd

    None of this should surprise anyone, given that the M’s offense once again sucks.

    Raul has a nice SLG, but he doesn’t get on base any more; his .313 OBP for 2013 is 25 points below his lifetime OBP. His power’s good, but that reduced OBP (10 or so points below average when compared to 1B/DH/corner OF) does hurt his value as an offensive player, and it’s an obvious sign that, duh, he’s 41 years old.

    Raul wouldn’t have been a “terrible” player at DH (and sure, if the FO wants to indugle him for another year, as long as he doesn’t play much OF, sure, let him retire a Mariner). The problem is the M’s went into the 2013 season with 5 DH’s (Raul, Morse, Morales, Bay and Montero), and thus four of them were playing defensive positions most of the year, which just gets back to the terrible roster decisions the M’s have made the last few years.

  7. VivaAyala on September 20th, 2013 2:21 pm

    Yeah, I don’t dispute the fact that the whole DH-in-the-field extravaganza was a disaster, nor the gist of the original post. Just seemed funny to pick on Raul when he’s one of the least terrible (overall) of the immobile fools to play the field for us this year.

  8. Hunter S. Thompson on September 21st, 2013 8:09 pm

    I think Raul was picked because he is still on the team and still playing the field most nights. Also Raul has hit at a decent level this year. The power is legite, the OBP isn’t great but would be okay if he wasn’t so horrible in the field.
    Raul is the definition of a player who is overated because what he does do, slug, is so visible while his horrible defense and bad baserunning gets overlooked.
    Nothing against Raul its not his fault he has been asked to take the field as often as he does, but if he can’t play the field and still have value and we already have a better hitter at DH, what purpose does he serve?

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