So It’s Come To This, Again
Used to be that words came a lot easier. I remember one time sitting down to write something about baseball, and it was going to be something long, and in about three hours, I pounded out the equivalent of 25 pages double-spaced. Felt like a lot, felt like a lot in a hurry, and I was pleased with the result. It’s still somewhere online and no one ever said it was stupid. Things now don’t work like they used to. On my bad days, I take it as a sign of decline, of declining passion and declining capability. On my good days, I take it as a sign of evolution, since now there’s a lot more thought taking place before there’s a single word on an Internet page. I know that I’m a different writer now than I was years ago. I think most people are. I’m referring specifically to baseball analysts, but it probably applies more generally, too.
Willie Bloomquist was a Mariner when I was younger and more energetic. More invested, more quick and ready to express myself. Now he’s a Mariner again, for probably a couple of seasons, and I’ve changed. Somewhat remarkably, he hasn’t, despite his advancing age, but that’s a point in his favor. For me and for all of us, this is another chance with Willie, a chance after a years-long break. It’s not a chance I’m looking forward to, but I’m interested by the response.
This news was destined to be an Internet catastrophe. The Mariners didn’t just sign a utility player for $5.8 million — they signed Willie Ballgame for $5.8 million, and Willie’s been a mascot and punching bag for a decade. The old Baseball Prospectus used to rip on him without mercy, and that was greatly influential. Even to this very day, I think a lot of us responded in the same way: when news broke, people laughed and shook their heads and said “of course”. If everything were the same and his name were Pete Snorkel, it’d just be a weird signing for a bit too much money. But that’s not his name; his actual name makes it funnier. It’s easy to chuckle and point to this as the latest evidence of the Mariners being a laughingstock.
I wanted to just laugh at them, too. Still do. Still want to do nothing but just shred them on Twitter, like people do when a team signs Yuniesky Betancourt or Delmon Young. As for a blog post, 1000 words making fun of the Mariners for being stupid? Simple. Been there before. I think I have templates. It’s embarrassing, right? It’s something to laugh about, right, something that proves the front office is clueless?
I know exactly how I would’ve responded to this if I were still the same writer as before. These days, I can’t help but try to look for reason. It takes time and maybe it isn’t always necessary, but I’ve become increasingly uncomfortable assuming I know what I’m doing more than executives do. Even some of the worse executives. I am convinced the Mariners didn’t need to do this, I am convinced they’ve guaranteed too big of a commitment, but there’s some sense. I see this now as a move that’s not great or good, but I understand the thinking.
I’m responsible for covering the AL West in the FanGraphs team depth charts, and when I’ve worked on the Mariners, I’ve struggled with playing time for infield backups. Before today, the team simply didn’t have a utility infielder beyond Carlos Triunfel, and the starters up the middle are Brad Miller and Nick Franklin, unproven youths, the both of them. Every team needs to have depth, and every team needs to have some infield insurance. The Mariners didn’t have that in the organization, so they needed to get some.
Willie fills that hole. He’s worse than Nick Punto, but Punto’s from California and he signed with the A’s, and the A’s are good and the Mariners aren’t. Here are contracts that have gone to similar players of late:
- Willie Bloomquist: 2 years, $5.8 million
- Nick Punto: 1 year, $3 million, or 2 years, $5.5 million with vesting option
- Brendan Ryan: 2 years, $5 million
- Skip Schumaker: 2 years, $5 million
Technically, Punto was given just one guaranteed year, but his 2015 option vests if he doesn’t spend too much time next year on the disabled list, and he hasn’t been on the DL since 2011. Increasingly, utility sorts are getting multiple years, and Willie is just coming off of a two-year contract. He’ll be paid the most money of the guys above, but he also signed with the worst team, a team with more money to spend than it might be capable of spending.
Again, I don’t think there was any need for urgency. Bloomquist wasn’t the only available option. Jayson Nix just got non-tendered. There are guys like Ramon Santiago and Elliot Johnson. The Mariners might’ve been able to get a better value by holding out, or maybe at least they could’ve limited things to a one-year commitment. The way things look, it’s as if the Mariners were in a rush to sign Willie Bloomquist, which sounds hilarious to people who are not us. It fits with the current caricature of the people in charge, and everybody likes blending baseball with humor.
But you do have a pretty good idea what you get from Willie Bloomquist. He can post two-thirds of a half-decent slash line, he can play a lot of positions, even if not particularly well, and he knows and understands his role. He’s not the younger version of himself who wanted so desperately to be a starter. He might still want that, but by now he’s come to terms with the reality. Willie’s been around, on good teams and bad teams, and he brings a lot of experience to a team that’s presently incredibly young, and I’m trying so desperately to not say too much about his familiarity with the area. It doesn’t hurt that people will like having him back. More significantly, he’s being paid to be worth a win over two years, and futzing over the details and likelihoods overlooks the fact that that’s hardly any money. Willie’s contract isn’t going to prevent the Mariners from doing anything else. They were probably going to target some kind of veteran infield backup. Now that’s done and the actual important moves will follow in some order.
That’s where I’m actually worried. I already don’t trust this front office, and Bloomquist has nothing to do with that. As much fun as it is to say he’s an indicator of everything that’s wrong with the team, he’s getting paid less than $3 million a year at a time when money like $3 million means less than ever. It’s not the little mistakes, where the Mariners might pay a bit too much for veteran experience and leadership. What I don’t like are the links to guys like Nelson Cruz. What I don’t like are the links to proven free-agent closers. Teams get sunk by the big mistakes, not the bench players, and while you might’ve wanted a better bench player than Willie Bloomquist, there aren’t very many of those who are available and who aren’t starters. Bloomquist isn’t good, but players in his role usually aren’t. He doesn’t out-and-out suck, so, all right.
This is all to say, I’m trying really hard to be open-minded. I’m trying really hard to give some of the benefit of the doubt to people I already don’t trust very much. I’m trying really hard to not just automatically laugh at Willie Bloomquist, because while the early days of baseball analysis were a lot of fun, people also sounded like self-important dicks. There’s always nuance, there’s always some reason a bad thing isn’t as bad as it initially seems. Willie fills a role for a bit too much money. A year ago, the brilliant Cardinals stupidly guaranteed two years and too much money to Ty Wigginton. I’m not saying the Mariners are run like the Cardinals are, but the things that matter aren’t found on the bench. This isn’t worth a freakout.
Save the freakouts for the real bad stuff. Real bad stuff like the Tigers’ trade of Doug Fister to the Nationals. Save the freakouts and hope you never have to dip into them. An organization that actually sucks will provide ample opportunity for you to lose your shit. There’s no need to force it, and it’s probably bad for you.
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Perfect. My freakouts are duly saved for the (inevitable) future depressing signings.
Why couldn’t we have traded for Doug Fister?
We’re just keeping loose, Jeff… Don’t wanna tighten up and injure something when the really big blunders happen. Kinda like spinning the wheels, burning rubber, keeping the tires warm, for traction, before the actual drag race happens (ie, the actual shit letting)…
Just trying to be prepared.
(Westy- and they got Fister for next to nothing… A Bloomquist-type, a lefty reliever of no note, and a minor league AA pitcher… *sigh*)
Meanwhile Texas got better, Oakland trades for Jim Johnson ( so at least on paper they’re better). Seattle? Well they’ve extended their special needs GM…so Houston’s position in the standings will certainly be better.
We get to see King Felix every 5 days. There’s that.
On the bright side Port Orchard will be one big party. They’ll break out the good blue meth for an occasion like this!
And, I see Mr. Navarro signs with the Jays for 2 yr/8m. Beat us to the punch once again because as we all know, Zunino is the answer right Now!
So following the WFB deal, we will now pick up the discarded Jays starting catcher, J.P. Arencibia, (released today….non-tendered) who is…..yes….wait for it….light hitting and slower than Montero, Smoak or Morales. FMTT.
Seriously, I can’t even watch anymore.
Thank you. The online dog piling gets a bit grating, as do the pontifications of online scribes that bait it every few days. They probably overpaid but at least it’s a known quantity on your bench rather than rolling the dice on Triunfel putting it together or one of the February dumpster dives working out. It’s way too little money and way too early in the offseason to expend this much vitriol. Save that for Cruz at 4/75m, Cano at 10/280m or Paxton for Fowler. Not worth the outrage.
On one hand it’s just a waste of $1-1.5M/year on what’s a $100M payroll that’s going to have plenty of waste.
On the other hand, the Mariners core is so bad that they can’t really afford to waste money filling out the roster. If you have to overspend to get a top 20 free agent, so be it. But rushing to overpay on a backup infielder so early in the off-season is silly (that’s a nice word for it).
That decision to drop ROOT Is looking better and better… đ
The main thing I don’t like about getting Bloomquist is that I really need and desperately want something to get excited about with the M’s. Willie is meh, maybe filling a need but not increasing the talent level, Mr. anti-excitement.
But at least Willie can run, which is better than adding another plodding bomber.
If this were a different organization, then we wouldn’t react this way; we’d give the benefit of the doubt. But it’s this organization, and it’s the FIRST move we’ve made in a very important offseason.
Yes, it’s too much. He was paid 3.8MM for the previous 2 years, and he’s only getting older.
After reading what you wrote, however, I’m going to look at this as a positive addition to the team. We’ve got WB, and he’ll fit in where he needs to fit in, on days he needs to be there (hopefully).
If he begins starting, however, then we’ll know that it wasn’t just Wedge pushing for the vets, but instead the FO.
I was one of the many shaking my head and muttering “of course they did.” I was angry, but your statement helps me feel less angry.
I don’t need to be angry right now. I need to save that energy for Nelson Cruz and Ervin Santana, and their combined $150MM contracts.
Anyway, thanks Jeff, for bringing me back, and thanks for the column.
Thanks for describing my entire life/career with your first paragraph Jeff.
A fun contrast between the takes of Jeff Sullivan and Dave Cameron. Jeff’s probably more right, but where’s the fun in nuance?
Wait, Fister got traded to the Nats?
Wow, I knew I’d really checked out from this offseason, but I didn’t realize how completely until I heard about the Fister thing here first.
As for WFB, the only thing that grinds my gears about it is the lame veteran-clubhouse-presence narrative. I don’t care about the money, or the utility player, or the order in which players get acquired in the offseason. I care about any semblance of an attempt to spin this into some great bonus or some force-multiplier for the team. It’s 200 PA from a warm body if things go right, WFB in a 2014 commercial and batting leadoff if things go Mariners. Meh.
And phineasphreak: “If he begins starting, however, then weâll know that it wasnât just Wedge pushing for the vets, but instead the FO.” – Well, we don’t know the new guy just yet. Lloyd also seems fairly old-school. It’s entirely possible we’ll think of him as being Wedge in a funny hat by midseason.
20% of the BIG 50 are gone before the Winter Meetings this off-season (and no…WFB was not on THAT list).
It is apparent that clubs are not waiting till the WM’s to pull triggers on deals. Rather, they are capturing the guys they want before they have a chance to say no after the wooing process gets in full swing down in Florida.
Once again, we see the solid organizations (Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Cardinals, A’s, Rangers) forging ahead and making moves. Most notably, they solidly have a plan in place, know what and who they want, and they go and get it done.
I keep seeing this vision in my mind’s eye of Jack sitting by a phone in his Seattle office, waiting for it to ring…..and it never does. Oh wait a minute…Jack, you have a call on line one. It is WFB looking for a two year contract. Deep sigh…………………….
Wow, The King every fifth day and now Willie B. — I’m getting season tickets!
M’s should be required to post a Surgeon General’s warning that following the Mariners is a health hazard.
Thank you, Jeff. I thought I was alone on this.
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Horse-shit we wouldn’t. Jeff’s right, it is the name Willie F. Bloomquist that gets people going the most. If this were even Robert Andino again, there’d be less caring. So if the A’s signed Willie, we may not be as vitriolic, but we’d sure raise an eyebrow or two.
This was just the first domino to fall, the rest of Boras’ clients are sure to follow. And a pony. I’m sure we’re getting a pony for Christmas too! Ellsbury and Drew, Chen and Choo, Oliver Perez and Kendrys too!
Here’s another way to view the knee-jerk reaction (or shell-shocked reaction) that we M’s fans have to almost any news: What if the A’s had signed Willie Bloomquist rather than Punto? [I’m not saying they would ever have actually done so, but let’s just say they did it hypothetically.] I suspect that many of us (me included) would have not only given the A’s the benefit of the doubt, but also figured that their GM was being shrewd yet again by adding another small but valuable piece early in the off-season before the market went nuts. Heck, if the A’s had just traded Doug Fister to the Nats, I probably would’ve tried to convince myself of the hidden genious of the move. M’s = bad. A’s = good. Let’s face it, it is natural for us to feel that way.
Saddest revelation this offseason is that everyone and his uncle knows the Mariners are desperate to acquire ANYTHING… So we won’t make many early moves, because everyone will ask for the moon.
Hell, even if you’re signing with the Yankees for $100 million I bet there are folks saying “Call the Mariners, see if they’ll bite at $200 million”…
That being, my fear is…
Most of our moves are gonna come late in the offsason, and not be the guys we were really wanting– which sounds oddly familiar?
(Kinda like in grade school kickball games– “Fine… I’ll take the fat kid with coke bottle glasses and freckles.”)
I’d be more excited about Tatum O’Neill and that kid (Kelly?) on the motorcycle who smokes cigarettes…
I suspect that many of us (me included) would have not only given the Aâs the benefit of the doubt, but also figured that their GM was being shrewd yet again by adding another small but valuable piece early in the off-season before the market went nuts.
Or, many of us would have gone “that seems out of character, because Billy Beane doesn’t make head-scratching moves like tying up replacement-level players on multi-year deals”.
I see this now as a move thatâs not great or good, but I understand the thinking.
You could make the same argument for last year’s moves; you’re getting Eric Wedge the power and veterans he’s asking for, you figure you are bringing in fences and that helps Morse and Ibañez, Morse is a case of a player who might bust out big if he stays injury-free, Vargas for Saunders is pretty much a wash talent-wise, meaning the Angels trade basically becomes Morales for free, Montero and Smoak are young enough to develop, Montero and Zunino give you young depth at catcher that means you can trade Jaso, and so on. Even the bad GMs can usually point to a logical theory behind what they are doing.
From the rumor mill:
Carlos “Almost 37” Beltran has a 3 year/$48 million deal on the table… Reported by multiple sources. Most guesses are it’s from Seattle.
That kind of deal sounds exactly like what the M’s might have to do to woo a big name. And the fact that he hasn’t ALREADY signed it, tells me it’s either the Mariners or the Astros, because that’s a huge overpay for a guy who turns 37 before next season. (Isn’t it? Hard to tell this offseason…)
Carlos is also in Kansas City today probably to see what he can get for a reunion salary. They even have “Welcome Back Carlos” up on the big screen at the stadium today.
So it sounds like it’s KC or Seattle (speculation there). Unless the Yankees wanna go 3 years (which I doubt).
Jesus I’d never considered Beltran. In my naivete I’ve been hoping ( due to his age ) they don’t drop too much money or years on Choo.
And now Mariners are reportedly “major players” for Cano. Is there any free agent with a pulse they are not linked to?
Did Eeyore write this?
How does Cano make any sense?! Apparently Z has forgotten we have no outfielders. Is he just trying to make a big splash?!?
Willie is a caricature of himself, mercilessly lambasted by the pundits for his gritty style of play and mediocre results. He’s easy, the broadside of a barn. He’s also making nearly $6 million for the next 2 years, so good on ya’ Willie, your shtick works.
Willie’s not the problem, it’s what he represents. Willie this years feels like Raul and Morse last year, like Morales and Cruz soon to follow, like spinning the wheels and getting buried deeper. Willie feels like Bad Mariners.
Willie fills a lot of minor holes and he’s worthwhile in that respect, even with an overpay. What bothers me about Willie is that he may be the harbinger of another team that I can’t get enthused about.
This is somewhat tongue in cheek, but Willie does lead the majors over the last 10 years in one of the most prized disciplines for a hitter. Willie is the clutchest player in baseball over that span, that is according to the Fangraphs Clutch metric, and its not even close.
I actually think it has a rational explanation other than luck for it too. The metric as I understand it is performance weighted by leverage. If I were a pitcher facing Bloomquist late in a tight game with RISP, then I’d be throwing him fastballs over the zone too, trying to get him to put it in play. I know he’s not going to hit it for extra bases cause he has a .074 ISO over the last 10 years too. Why wouldn’t you throw him heat right over the heart of the plate?
How does Cano not make sense? Adding a 5 win player would be just terrible.
All these good deals for Kazmir, Fowler, Fister and Punto are happening while the M’s are linked to Willie Bloomquist, Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano.
Someone here coined the phrase “Raging Dumpster Fire” to describe this organization. Bundle up M’s fans because the front office is gathering tinder this winter.
It’s on foxsports that the Seattle is the major player in a trade for Kemp now.
The Cano numbers are even crazier… A Yankees source says the Mariners are willing to go over 8 years and north of $200 million, while the Yankees are holding at 7 years/$175 million.
Cano originally asked the Yankees for 10 years/$310, but has come down a bit, though he still wants $27-28 million a year.
So yeah, while the guys we could really use get traded/signed for reasonable deals, we overpay for Willie Bloomquist and dangle $250 million at Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz…
Although I truly suspect that the M’s area being used as leverage in players negotiations with other teams, who interest them more.
Coincidence there are rumors we offered Carlos Beltran 3 yr/$48 million on the day he’s in KC talking deal with them?
Coincidence when Cano is trying to get the Yankees to go more years, it’s reported the M’s have offered over 8 years and over $200 million?
I think we’re getting played, and who can blame them? (Z was quoted yesterday, re: Cano, as saying “we’ve talked to every free agent out there, we’ve cast a wide net, it’s no secret”– which is totally out of character with the “we don’t talk about these things” of years past… The Mariners sound so desperate, this doesn’t feel very promising.)
Yeah, Cano would just suck.
I’m not listening to any rumor until it happens. The Mariners were supposedly the team with the 3/48 on the table for Beltran. It was the Royals. The Mariners weren’t even whispered to be interested in Bloomquist until the signing happened.
Stop listening to rumors.
There has been no offer even rumored for Cruz. The only thing we’ve heard is what Cruz wants, and so far nobody is biting. The rumored recent $48m offer was for Beltran, and it was Kansas City that apparently has that on the table not Seattle.
C’mon people.
I don’t find that Z comment any more or less revealing than anything else he says. It isn’t a secret that the Mariners are looking for players. Everybody knows we need outfielders, at least. It would be stupid that the Mariners weren’t inquiring about each and every free agent. Doesn’t mean we’re going to pay their demands to get them, but there’s no harm in asking.
Jack Kemp? WAY too old.
Oh… and apparently dead, too.
The main downside I can see to signing Cano is it probably would mean the team is planning to keep Ackley in centerfield. I know we heard a lot of rah rah “he’s learning fast”, “he’s getting better every day” comments from the talking heads last season, plus he made a couple of very nice catches… but he’s really not very good out there, and his arm is a significant liability.
If he were in left, it might not be so bad – but I still think Raul is going to be there again next year. Sigh…
Ellsbury is a Yankee pending a physical tomorrow.
Typical Idiot, sorry– I wrote Cruz when I meant Beltran. Really though, you probably shouldn’t read our posts if this bugs you. I love this part of the season, the rumors, the speculation, the possibilities. Wishful thinking is way more fun than what usually ends up on the field come spring.
If you’re gonna wait til things actually happen to comment, that’s great. I’m not so inclined myself, sorry.
And why should we not roll with it? It’s fun. It’s a game. It’s entertainment. That’s what these columns are for…
More importantly, where did you see that the Royals are the ones with the 3 year/48 Million offer to Beltran? I haven’t seen that reported anywhere? And I’ve been reading lots of stuff on it all day (it’s my day off). I know he’s meeting with them today, but everything I’ve read suspects that the offer is from someone else, including that the Yankees have definitely made him an offer.
Arm isn’t that important in center, either. Besides, there’s no reason to keep either Ackley or Franklin if you can trade them for better outfield help.
I’m starting to wonder about some of you. If the Mariners wanted Raul, they would have signed him already.
It isn’t that. Commenting and speculating on the “ifs” of a particular rumor are fine. Where I draw the line is when people start using it to create or bolster negative narratives against the team, based on nothing but their already existing biases of the team’s front office.
It is irritating, and I said it a while ago, but until they actually screw something up, they haven’t screwed anything up. Don’t act like they did.
Yeah, that was premature on my part. It was part of a report I read in the LL threads, which was speculation from Olney (I think) that with Beltran meeting the Royals that it was the Royals who were making that offer.
Another reason why we shouldn’t listen to rumors; the details are often not fully known or based on sketchy / half-assed information.
I, for one, welcome the return of Princess Willie. He’s like a mascot.
And I’ve long since given up any hope of the Mariners being any good.
Yeah, there’s never any haggling over the terms of a guy’s contract when a team wants a guy back. And there’s never the possibility that some other team might’ve also been impressed with 29 homers, and his agent might be trying to get better money based on that.
/sarcasm
Yeah, because the soon-to-be 42 year old is worth a multi-year deal and a whole shit ton of money, flukey 29 homers or no flukey 29 homers.
Raul is not a valuable commodity and while his agent can try all he wants, reality is a much harsher mistress. Hell, it could be Raul doesn’t want to come back to Seattle, preferring a contender. That’s fine.
There are far more reasons why Raul doesn’t end up on the Mariners than Raul does end up on the Mariners. If everybody’s narrative driven paranoia about the Mariners is anyway accurate, they not only would have signed Raul for his veteranness, grit, nostalgia appeal, ding dongers, disregard for defense, BUT also would be overpaying whatever he demands. Thus, whatever his agent thinks he can get, the supposedly terrible Mariners would have already paid it.
Or do the collective narratives only fit AFTER something actually happens?
Wait so we shouldn’t jump to conclusions on rumors, or try to fit it into our preconcieved (preconcieved by taking the facts we have witnessed in the past and appling them to the current or future situation) ideas of the front office.
But you know for sure the reason Raul’s not signed with the M’s is because they don’t want him. And you know what his market is?
You complain about people and their narratives, when every post is your narrative, your view on how everyone here only evaluate things based on Dave’s narrative.
People have opinions, I’m fine with that but your’s isn’t any better then anyones elses on the board.
Actually, I would say my opinions are better than some others on the board. If someone says that it is their opinion that the ocean is made of lime green Jell-O, guess how wrong their opinion is. Trying to imply that all opinions are equal is one of the stupidest opinions I’ve ever heard.
Apt examples:
“Nelson Cruz is a bad baseball player based on the analytical approaches we’ve been doing for years.”
“Nelson Cruz is going to be a Seattle Mariners because the front office has signed guys like him before and because I have lost all faith in them to not sign bad players.”
I guess opinions are opinions are opinions.