Podcast: Transactions Made and not yet Made
Matthew Carruth · July 27, 2014 at 7:59 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Sunday Evening Podcast!
Jeff and I got this recorded a little early and why make you wait? Trades, Promotions, and the Wild Card are discussed this week.
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Thanks again to those that helped support the show and/or StatCorner work in general last week, and in the past, and hopefully in the future. It’s truly appreciated.
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Someone asked: Are the Mariners out of the Wild Card? At only a game and a half back from Toronto and a game back from NY, of course not. But at this time of the year, and in these circumstances, what happens off the field is more important than what they’re doing on the field this week.
And…?
Yankees pulled in Capuano and, more importantly, Headley, who makes a real — non-guesswork — infield and team upgrade at the corner. And they’re angling for Willingham and (Jack! Where are you?) Tulowitzki, and Cervelli, and etc etc etc… And Toronto’s very busy telling everyone they’re not, no definitely not, never, nohow, fergeduboudit, interested in Cliff Lee.
The weird thing, is nobody has the slightest idea what the Mariners are/were really planning… if anything. Whatever rumors are circulating are either really flimsy, or are downright strange (the sort of acquisitions that look more normal in December than July) to the point you don’t want to really even know about it.
Honestly? It’s been nice to have a (sometimes) +.500 ballclub to watch in Seattle. It’s been so long it can almost make you forget even fairly recent things like, uh, 2013. We just don’t have any upstairs muscle. And as contending teams improve, we know what will happen to a static .500.
Our trades look like WFB 2.0
Hello August. Good thing Nostalgia Nite’s the ninth. Everyone will still be feeling generally good and even wistfully hopeful.
What a difference a week makes…
Hey look-
Here’s Jack Z admitting he doesn’t know what he’s doing…
“If you consider David Price a [grade] A and the only thing available to you as a hitter is a C-plus hitter, you are better off with the A pitcher. It really all depends what opportunity presents itself. What are you giving up to what are you getting back?“, Zduriencik says.
—————–
Except, if you’re replacing a D-/F hitter with a C+ hitter you’re making bigger progress than replacing a B pitcher with an A pitcher. And probably saving about $10 million in the process over the next couple years, which affords you MORE additions in the future…
Sigh. And if you figure the subtraction of at least a couple B+/A- upside players to acquire Price, the benefit is even less in the overall picture, versus what you’d need to give up for a C+ hitter.
Last I checked… Oakland and San Francisco are BOTH doing pretty well with a whole bunch of C+ hitters…
This is like the football GM who drafts a QB #1 overall to save his offense, when 5 meathead offensive linemen who can actually block would be FAR more beneficial. Without which, it doesn’t matter how talented your QB is, ’cause he’ll be on his butt all day. (Felix says “hi” from his butt)
Deep sigh……same Mariners.
Except, if you’re replacing a D-/F hitter with a C+ hitter you’re making bigger progress than replacing a B pitcher with an A pitcher. And probably saving about $10 million in the process over the next couple years, which affords you MORE additions in the future…
No. WAR is WAR and talent is talent, there is no “offense is better than defense” here. Run prevention counts for improving your team too.
And if you figure the subtraction of at least a couple B+/A- upside players to acquire Price, the benefit is even less in the overall picture, versus what you’d need to give up for a C+ hitter.
If only Zduriencik had said “It really all depends what opportunity presents itself. What are you giving up to what are you getting back?”
Oh, wait, he did.
I’m certainly not in his fan club, but come on. There’s perfectly legitimate cases where if what you’re giving up for a C+ hitter and what you get back isn’t what you’d get/give for David Price, you make the Price deal.
Now, if your argument is “he’s too incompetent to make these assessments on talent in trades”, OK, but what makes you think he can swing a good deal for a C+ hitter in that case?
“No. WAR is WAR and talent is talent, there is no “offense is better than defense” here. Run prevention counts for improving your team too.”
I’m not really meaning to argue your point, since I agree with it. But I do understand MrZ’s frustration too.
And it is true that you can’t win a game 0 to -1 (I forget who originally said that). I know that statement refers to a ridiculous extreme, but sometimes this team seems to actually be approaching too close to that boundary for comfort!
You have to have a really extreme situation where improving the pitching by 10 runs wouldn’t be just as valuable as improving the hitting by 10 runs.
The M’s tiptoe very close to such extremities…
Old story. Runs are necessary, what a shock! Don’t need to elucidate all the way runs help,(stress pitches et.al.), but come on… the team with more runs wins.
Eponymous…
In math yes. In baseball there are diminishing returns… You can’t reasonably expect your pitcher to only give up 1 run a game. Assume best case scenario, Price, Felix and Iwakuma need at least 3 runs to predict a win, maybe 2 runs gives you 50/50 shot… But that’s not playoff baseball.
We’ve averaged 2 runs scored a game since the All-Star break… Improving the pitching is not gonna get us closer to 3 runs a game, adding Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and David Price is not gonna get us closer to scoring 3 runs a game.
Our ERA is already best in the league as a pitching staff. But it still needs us to score 3 runs a game. There is NO reasonable expectation to have a major league pitching staff average fewer than 2 runs allowed a game.
We need to score as close to 3-4 runs on average as possible to have a belief in making the playoffs and winning some games when we get there. We’re missing that mark by 50-75% currently. Improving our pitching 20% is not gonna cover that run differential issue.
Upgrading the offense improves the chances of success in EVERY game.
Upgrading one starting pitcher improves the chances of success in one out of every five games. (and maybe a tiny bit in the other four if the bullpen can be properly rested more often)
It is THAT simple.
Tell that to the Rangers.
We’ve averaged 2 runs scored a game since the All-Star break…
Hurray for Small Sample Size Theatre!
Here’s an exercise for you: find the last time a team has scored less than 324 runs in a 162 game season, or 308 runs in a 154 game season.
Hint: don’t bother with 1968, the peak of the most recent dead-ball era.
Nobody is arguing that the outfield isn’t problematic (I believe I was saying I didn’t think Jones was the answer months ago… oh, look, he’s not). But if I could have David Price on a deal that made more sense than trading for a C+ outfielder rentaplayer (especially if it means an extra year of team control/chance to upgrade the offense in the offseason), sure, why not?
This is not to say such a deal exists, but Jack is right. Worry about talent. The M’s problems have been a lack of talented players.
We’re missing that mark by 50-75% currently. Improving our pitching 20% is not gonna cover that run differential issue.
You realize that one lineup spot is 11% of your lineup, right? Or are you suggesting that Jack’s going to be able to trade for 3 or 4 C+ hitters without giving up the farm?
Upgrading the offense improves the chances of success in EVERY game.
Which is why the league leader in offense wins it all and hoists a trophy every year, right?
Oh, wait, sorry, no, not so much.
Except, you know, we are specifically discussing the M’s situation–not trying to generalize to all of baseball. Yes, there is a point where the equation changes but THE M’s already have the best pitching in the league. There isn’t much room for significant improvement there. They are however, dead last in most offensive categories. It should take very little to see real improvement there. Look at Oakland. Their pitching is about level with the M’s. Their offense which sports mostly guys hitting around .250 give or take 10 points accomplishes far more than the M’s.
Except, you know, we are specifically discussing the M’s situation
You know who else probably understands the M’s situation and what is available in trade right now? Their general manager. Now, you may question his competence to make a good trade, but what makes you think he would make a good trade for a mediocre OF and blow a deal for a good pitcher? My argument is not that Jack Z is the best GM in the game, it’s that his statement is correct and not even particularly controversial (except if you’re a panicking fan because the team’s in a slump): you should make the best deal for the best player available.
To take this into silly rosterbation fantasy wanker trade land and to make a point: if your two trade offers are “Matt Kemp for Nick Franklin” and “David Price for Lucas Luetge”, you would be crazy to prefer to make the Kemp deal, just because the M’s are playing with terrible OFers and DHs, and their pitching is pretty good. Matt Kemp is merely slightly less terrible and overpriced for years to come. David Price is very good and not horribly overpriced and the ask is smaller. You want to trade for the better player and make the better deal.
I don’t want to give up the farm for freaking Chris Denorfia or Marlon Byrd. If we can get them cheap, then awesome, they are definitely upgrades. Are they the difference? I don’t think so. I don’t think that offensive player we are looking for is out there. I know Jack feels pressured to make a move, but I hope he doesn’t do anything too stupid.
Mr. Z, I agree whole heartedly with your point …a successful baseball team requires some balance… what good is 5 Felix’s in the rotation and 9 Abraham Almonte’s in the lineup?? A successful team needs some pitching and some hitting; some starters and some relievers; some offense and some defense; some lefties and some righties. Right now the M’s have great pitching and about the worst offense in the league and it’s lefty-dominant. For the M’s to obtain better balance, they need a right-handed Cano that plays any outfield position. How Jack Z might do that is beyond my pay grade. In the rosterbation world, Price might be a better player than Kemp, but Kemp provides far better balance to the team.
Which is really just a demonstration of how poorly batting average informs you about offensive output. The A’s have the fourth-highest wRC+ in baseball (Mariners are 25th), and the fifth-highest wOBA (Mariners are 28th). The A’s batting average is indeed around .254 (15th) but they’re getting on base (5th highest OBP) and getting extra-base hits (7th highest ISO). Paired with a great pitching staff, that’s more than enough.
The disparity between AVG and OBP really comes down to plate discipline. The A’s have it (just 27.4% swings outside the zone, second-lowest in baseball behind the Rays) and the Mariners mostly don’t (31.2%, 21st). The A’s don’t swing at balls, forcing pitchers to throw strikes, and punish them when they do.
Especially on a team basis, that’s a lot more effective than a high batting average. And that’s something that acquiring one guy isn’t going to fix; the A’s are (once again) an assemblage of parts that conform to a larger philosophy. I don’t know what the M’s philosophy is, other than “great pitching and throw a bunch of DH types against the wall and hope one sticks.” Even when they stumble into the kind of guys the A’s value, like John Jaso, they don’t seem to realize it.
In the rosterbation world, Price might be a better player than Kemp, but Kemp provides far better balance to the team.
Kemp’s a replacement level player so far in 2014 (-.1 WAR), according to Fangraphs. Apparently he’s a complete slug in the OF now.
I suppose if you think we need to balance all our terrible outfielders with another terrible outfielder, except this time we need to overpay that outfielder 20 million through 2019, that’s one approach.
And that’s something that acquiring one guy isn’t going to fix
QFT. One improved lineup spot in the OF/DH is maybe, over two months, 10-20 runs. One or two wins. If you’re lucky, there’s no injury or slump, etc.
You are not going to fix three lineup spots with deadline deals.
Right on joser. There are different ways to assemble a winning team. A’s and Tigers are different, both successful. But there must be some plan in place that makes sense.
p.s. Few NFL players wouldn’t love to be a Hawk; few MLB players would like to be a Mariner.
I’m getting depressed… It’s time for the cure all:
Puppies!
No one can be sad when we’re talking about puppies. Even replacement level puppies are adorable.
I mean, sure a right handed hitting puppy who can play left field and bat for some power would be awesome– but even a Willie Bloomquist type puppy is still a joy to behold.
(sigh)
Puppies!
If you’re depressed now, how did you survive all the OTHER Mariner seasons where they were 10+ games out of anything resembling a pennant race by June? Were you cutting yourself a lot? Going to rehab?
Look, this team will NOT spend the rest of the season scoring 2 runs a game, even if they don’t make any deal (they’re in a slump and they’ll come out of it). It’s a ~.500 team, which is about what we knew we had going in. They just added someone who could be a decent DH for basically nothing (a busted prospect, and a RH relief fastballer at that, which is something your minor league system should produce every year). Saunders coming back is another decent OFer.
This team isn’t great, and even a deadline deal for a C+ OFer won’t make them good, but “OK and not terrible” is a damned sight better than most of the last decade. I’m fine with letting the house money so far ride and seeing what happens. We could be the Astros or Rangers right now, looking at months of meaningless baseball.
Seems like something is missing from the analysis of acquiring Morales:
Hart has had all year to prove that his new self can’t hit like his old self. It’s now a decent sample size. Morales has also been bad this year, but he missed Spring Training, April, May. That’s a lot of rust to shake off. It seems like he has better odds of improving. His badness this year is a smaller sample and might regress towards his career mean. Maybe?
I’m not saying I love the trade, but I can imagine it being a marginal improvement.
Yeah I have to agree. We should probably just pull the trigger on Byrd and guarantee his 2015 at $8 million (~cost of 1 WAR by then). He shouldn’t cost much in prospects. Byrd can DH and play some outfield in 2015 once Morales and Hart are gone. We don’t need to be doing anything crazy with Price or Lester.
Paxton is set to return this weekend and Walker is still lurking. Let us see what they can do over the remainder of the season. I think making some big move for the sake of maybe getting into a 1 game play-off is foolish.
Saunders – RF/CF
Seager – 3B
Cano – 2B
Morales – DH
Byrd – LF
Morrison – 1B
Ackley/Jones – CF
Zunino – C
Miller – SS
Felix
Iwakuma
Young
Elias
Paxton/Walker
Kendrys should indeed regress upwards. But, as I believe was pointed out in the podcast – he’s already had more than a spring training’s worth of at-bats. He should be back to normal NOW… so it’s not a given that he’s going to get back to his old self either.
And, at least so far, it’s not like Kendrys replaced Hart – they are both playing now.
I’m a glass half full guy, and can live with it.
But, and it’s just me being selfish, I wouldn’t mind watching a different formulation of that half-glass as of August 1… just for the hell of it. As long as it doesn’t break the bank or corner us going into winter (or the winter after that, or the winter after that).
But… whatever. Half a glass, on the rocks.
And while I’m in the wishing mood, I would really love to see gone, just for the hell of it, those elements that absolutely ensure .500 will never be passed.
“I think making some big move for the sake of maybe getting into a 1 game play-off is foolish.”
I completely agree. Any move the Mariners make to help themselves in the very short term needs to also help them for 2015 (at a minimum – and longer would be better).
Paxton’s pitching on Sunday didn’t appear MLB ready. Or AAAA caliber.
Long Distance… care to specify any of those likely elements?
Morales will not return to his former level, just as Hart shown he will not. Morales and Hart on the same team? Who made that deal and why?
Knock on wood but more injuries will happen. The M’s need to go after healthy outfielders even if they are middle of the road hitters.
So who is going to be without the M’s trading the future?
A minor league rehab start doesn’t mean much. He could have treated it like a spring training game for all we know. I doubt they would pencil him into the rotation if they weren’t confident that he was ready.
Puppies.
Still weak up the middle; no outfield production; no DH production.
Puppies could be used as a strategic distraction, MrZ!
Imagine replacing the ball girls with puppies! Okay, we’re talking about young guys here so maybe that would actually decrease the distraction level. Hmm..
Okay, how about ball wolverines?