First Half Numbers
Dave · July 11, 2005 at 8:40 am · Filed Under
Mariners
Just a few random numbers from the first half that you may find of interest.
Ichiro, who had a “disappointing” first half by most peoples standards, is 6th in the American League among outfielders in VORP. The five ahead of him are Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Sheffield, Johnny Damon, and Manny Ramirez. Remember, VORP does not include defense. Even while slumping, Ichiro’s an elite player and a legitimate all-star.
The Mariners, White Sox, and A’s are essentially tied for the major league lead in defensive efficiency, turning 71.6 percent of all balls in play into outs. The M’s ranked 6th (70.1 %) last year, 1st (72 %) in 2003, 9th (70.5 %) in 2002, 1st (72.7 %) in 2001, and 3rd (69.9 %) in 2000. Since moving into Safeco Field, the M’s have never ranked out of the top ten in turning balls in play into outs. That’s not a coincidence.
According to BP’s playoff odds report, after sweeping the Angels this weekend, the M’s now have a 0.26 percent chance of winning the division and a 0.06 percent chance of winning the wild card. In other words, if we played the second half of the season 1,000 times, the Mariners would make the playoffs in about three of those.
The Mariners rotation of Pineiro, Moyer, Meche, Sele, and Franklin has been worth about 9 wins over a replacement level pitching staff and about 1 win less than an average pitching staff. Franklin has been the team’s top starter, being worth 2.3 wins over a replacement level starting pitcher. That ranks him 55th in major league baseball and 26th in the American League.
Speaking of Franklin, there’s good reason to expect him to perform significantly worse as the season goes on. His Fielding Independant ERA of 5.21 is a run higher than his actual 4.35 ERA, and his Expected Fielding Independant ERA, based on his component numbers, is 5.72. Both his FIP and his xFIP are worst on the staff. However, because the gloves have been turning 75 percent of his balls in play into outs, his ERA sparkles at 4.35. The next time someone tells you how “unlucky” Ryan Franklin is, remind them that his BABIP is 9th in the majors among starting pitchers. His teammates might not score him any runs, but they save him a buttload with their defense.
More pitching fun. There are 56 pitchers in the American League who qualify for the ERA title. Of those 56, the Mariners starting pitchers rank 32nd (Meche), 40th (Pineiro), 42nd (Moyer), 51st (Franklin), and 52nd (Sele) in K/9. The starters have struck out 255 hitters in 514 innings pitched for a 4.46 K/9 as a pitching rotation. If the M’s staff was one American League pitcher, it would rank 45th out of 56 in strikeout rate. Talk about pitching to contact.
Adrian Beltre is 5th among Mariners hitters in VORP. Seriously. Only Ibanez, Sexson, Ichiro, and Morse have provided more offensive contribution to the team than the M’s third baseman. He’s still 25th among major league 3rd baseman, however. Among those major league third baseman with a higher VORP than Beltre: Jeff Cirillo. Ouch.
Eddie Guardado has been about 2 wins better than a replacement level reliever, ranking him 4th best in the American League. Considering he’s doing it with a torn rotator cuff, he’s having one of the most remarkable seasons of any player in baseball this year. He’s basically dominating with nothing but chutzpah.
Comments
After reading that line about how many times we’d have to play the second half to make the playoffs, I actually laughed. I’m reminded of a line from the great movie “Dumb and Dumber:”
“So you’re saying there’s a chance!”
Today’s the deadline for a Boone trade right? Any word on that?
How many years does Ryan have to pitch with unusually low BABIP numbers before he is no longer “Lucky”? It has only been for 6 years now!!
year BABIP
1999 .238
2001 .250
2002 .255
2003 .251
2004 .285
2005 .253
1999 was only 51 plate appearances, but after that every year he had over 300, and the last four years he has been a starter. Anyway it sure looks to me like LAST YEAR was the fluky HIGH BABIP, not this year being fluky low. Even Bill James has admitted that BABIP is not completely random and that the pitcher DOES AFFECT how a batter hits the ball. With Ryan having SEVEN different pitches that he can throw at any given time, it makes sense that batters have less of a chance to guess right and thus Ryan gets more weakly hit fly balls or slow ground outs. Of course Ryan throws his share of walks and home run balls, so that is why his ERA is so high. If anything we should be complaining about why his ERA isn’t in the 3’s with such a consistently low BABIP, not that he gets lucky or unlucky.
BTW, the same argument applies for his run support “Luck” If it was just a few games or a half a season or even one whole season then I could blame it on bad luck, but this is going on FOUR YEARS now!! It is getting a bit ridiculous! And the last two starts does NOT make up for the last four years!!
2: 1 hr, 16 mins till he goes on waivers. I bet nothing happens.
Despite your use of the SHIFT KEY, you still MISS the POINT.
Franklin has benefited from the park he plays in, which suppreses offense, and from the quality of defense behind him, which has over his Mariner career been quite good. In particular, as a fly ball pitcher, he’s the beneficiary of some outstanding Mariner outfield crews.
Lower BABIPs don’t have to be the pitcher.
Wait, you know to the minute when Boone was DFAd? How’d you get the timestamp on that transaction?
Out of curiosity, is there any way to find out the average defensive efficiency numbers for visiting pitchers to benchmark the Mariners’ defensive performance?
PI said the deadline was 11AM today.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/232044_mbok11.html
DMZ…
I dunno what info he is acting on, but the post-game guys (I know, I know) said the deadline was 11:00 AM today. For what that’s worth.
How do we know that Eddie still has a torn rotator cuff? Couldn’t it of actually healed in the offseason, like the Docs said it would?
Brock-
While you’re citing James about BABIP, go look up what he’s said about K/9 IP…and realize that Ryan Franklin’s career K/9 IP is 4.11 and for this year so far it’s at 3.72.
Saying Franklin’s not likely to have long term success at keeping his ERA low with peripheral stats like he’s had is pretty accurate. In fact, one can argue that staying in a major league rotation for any length of time IS Ryan Franklin maxing out his potential.
Too bad Ichiro is not in the Home Run Derby. During batting practice Ichiro hits more homeruns than any guy I have ever seen.
Is there any way we could get a BP Playoff Odds report for the day that the Mariners beat the Yankees in the game that’s considered “the beginning of the run for the playoffs”? Has this been done?
What were the chances that the Angels would collapse and that the M’s would win as many games as they did?
You could write BP a note and ask.
The odds that the ’95 team would come back and win the division were probably longer than they are right now. Which is why they were the ONLY team to ever overcome a deficit that large that late in the season. It had never been done before, and it hasn’t been done since.
Eleven o’clock and no Boone trade. He’s on the waiver wire now. If no one claims him (and his $4.5 million remaining salary) he’s a free agent.
#10
We know that Eddie has a torn rotator because the M’s trainer said so less than a month ago. When the injury first occurred the media was told that it was a “partially torn rotator cuff”. Then this came out last month in a Larry Stone piece.
“Ask Mariners trainer Rich Griffin how remarkable it is that Guardado is pitching so well with a partially torn rotator cuff, and he takes exception. ‘It’s not partially torn; it’s fully torn,’ Griffin corrected. ‘If you ask any physician or therapist who’s got anything to do with baseball from a medical aspect, the fact he’s even pitching in games is phenomenal.”
http://archives.seattletimes.nwsource.com/cgi-bin/texis.cgi/web/vortex/display?slug=mari14&date=20050614&query=guardado+rotator+cuff+griffin
Which is great for his trade value.
“Lower BABIPs don’t have to be the pitcher.”
True, however one would assume if it was the defense that was benefitting Franklin so much, that it would be consist with the other four Mariner starting pitchers. Which doesn’t appear to be the case….
BABIP 2005:
Sele = .304
Meche = .283
Pineiro = .306
Moyer = .306
Franklin = .253
The assumption being that the defense is performing relatively the same for all the stating pitchers, for some reason Franklin’s BABIP is oddly lower than the rest. With a common defense and a common home park……the next variable would be the pitcher themselves. Franklin just appears to consistently (over the course of his career) have a knack for keeping hitters off balance and pitching to weak contact.
With a common defense and a common home park……the next variable would be the pitcher themselves.
Yessssss, and yet noooooooooooo.
Again, look to G/F ratio. If a pitcher’s giving up a ton of ground balls, the infield defense would be far more important than outfield defense. If a team’s overall defense is based largely on the play of a stellar group of outfielders, ala the Winn-Cameron-Ichiro combo, then the extreme flyballer would benefit far more than the extreme groundballer.
The odds that the ‘95 team would come back and win the division were probably longer than they are right now. Which is why they were the ONLY team to ever overcome a deficit that large that late in the season. It had never been done before, and it hasn’t been done since.
I think the ’51 Giants might take issue with that. They were 13 1/2 back with 45 games to go only to force the three-game playoff with the Dodgers. Then Bobby Thomson happened….
And, not coincidentally, Franklin is last among the 5 starters in G/F rate. The other extreme flyballers on the staff (Julio Mateo and Eddie Guardado) are also posting remarkably low BABIPs. Safeco and the Mariners outfielders are the perfect complement to flyball pitchers, and Mateo, Guardado, and Franklin have all benefited significantly from their surroundings.
If you count 1995, I think we’ve already used up one of those three.
They were 13 1/2 back with 45 games to go
Oops. 13 back on August 11, 1951 with 44 to play.
http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/08111951.htm#1
The Mariners were 11 1/2 back (and in third place) on August 24, 1995 with 34 to play.
http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/08241995.htm#1
Hard to say which one is more remarkable. Probably the ’95 surge, since the Giants stole the Dodgers’ signs in the ’51 playoff game.
Interesting. Why would the M’s allow Griffin to make such a comment though? Seems to me that would prevent any team from even considering making an offer for Eddie.
Has there been any significant research on a correlation between pitchers who rely on their defense and run support? Could we use Franklin’s career numbers for a comparison?
The odds that the ‘95 team would come back and win the division were probably longer than they are right now
Right, but their odds at being the wild card were much better.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?date=1995-08-20
This was as far back of the Angels as they would get that late in 1995- but they were only 3 back in the wild card. They were 4 back in the wild card, 11.5 back before the August 24th game against New York (the one Griffey won with a late-inning HR), which was as far out of it as they got. By the 31st they were tied for the wild card spot with Texas, and never got more than a game and a half out- and by early September they were only 5 back of the Angels.
I’d say their chances at the 1995 wild card were better than .06 percent. Which is why I feel like smacking people when they start comparing 2005 to 1995 (not saying you are doing this, Dave, it’s more like callers and GMs on the KOMO postgame show), because the 1995 Mariners never dug themselves this kind of double-digit hole for ANY playoff spot, nor did they dive THIS far below .500. There’s only one team that’s really done something like what the 2005 M’s would have to do (the 1951 Giants, who came from 13 back in August, were also in second place in the NL at the time and were above .500 in June and July, so it’s not like they are comparable, either)- the 1914 Miracle Braves.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?date=1914-07-18
If you have to go 90+ years in baseball history to find something comparable, to a time when the American League leader in home runs didn’t hit double digits…uh, it’s not bloody likely. I’m not going to be holding my breath for a 59-16 closing stretch for the M’s.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2002373960_webboone11.html
Boone is a Twin.
I would like to bet every dollar and asset that I own and will make in the coming months on Beltre ending the season with a better VORP than Cirillo. I know its a risky proposition, but I bet I could get +125 from a bookmaker.
It looks like Terry Ryan and BIll Bavasi have a decent working relationship, anyway, considering this is the second time in two years we’ve shipped them a veteran for the stretch drive (Borders last year, this year Boone).
re: Boone– of course, that is Finnegan, so I’m waiting until it is confirmed elsewhere….
Philosophically speaking, is it better to have a pitcher use his defense behind him or is it better to have a pitcher try to get everybody out himself via a K?
There are very few pitchers who can get more then 1/3rd of the outs themselves (say if you’re pitching a 1K:1IP ratio), and strikeouts tend to require at least three pitches. For the rest of the time, those pitchers also have to rely upon their defenses for balls put in play. On the other hand, if you’re going to have to rely on your defense most of the time (for 2/3rds the outs), then why not rely upon them a bit more then 2/3rds of the time, and potentially lower the stress on your arm by throwing fewer pitches?
I’m not saying that it’s a sound piece of statistical logic, but it seems to make sense. You have major league quality players behind you at all times (well most of the time), so they’re supposed to make plays. Of the flyballs hit to the outfield, how many are “tough” plays to make? Every Major League calibur outfielder should be able to catch a popup / flyball hit high and to their area. Just like every infielder should be able to handle a good portion of the ground balls hit right at them (barring a mental lapse / error). Infielders, I would wager, probably have to make more “good play” attempts then outfielders.
My point? You have a defense; use it. If you really suck, then the balls that are put in play are going to find the holes and become basehits, or worse, regardless of your defense. If a strikeout is the only way to rate a pitcher’s ability to be effective, then may I remind the audience here that no pitcher has never struck out every single batter in a 9 inning game. The most that has been done is 20, and that’s been done three times; twice by the same guy. Even for those masterful performances, the defense was used.
I think it was Crash Davis who said “Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring. More then that, they’re facist. Throw more ground balls. They’re more democratic.”
Boone again; FWIW, the St Paul Pioneer Press baseball columnist Gordon Wittenmyer is saying the same thing as Finnegan:
“in a deal expected to be announced later today. Terms of the deal were not immediately known, but Seattle is thought to be paying the remaining $4.6 million on Boone’s contract — minus the pro-rated major-league minimum ($316,000) that Boones new club would be
required to pay. It might be a deal similar to the Twins acquisition of pitcher Terry Mulholland last season. In that deal, no player was sent to Seattle.”
Philosophically speaking, is it better to have a pitcher use his defense behind him or is it better to have a pitcher try to get everybody out himself via a K?
Philosophically speaking, its better to strike out all 27 batters, so there’s no chance for an error. But since we’re dealing with reality, that doesn’t really matter.
if you’re going to have to rely on your defense most of the time (for 2/3rds the outs), then why not rely upon them a bit more then 2/3rds of the time, and potentially lower the stress on your arm by throwing fewer pitches?
Because every time you allow the batter to put the ball in play, you’re reducing the likelyhood of your team making an out. For a pitcher, strikeouts >>>> balls in play, so intentionally pitching to contact is, in general, a bad idea.
My point? You have a defense; use it.
This is a great way to have a terrible pitching staff.
Separate Boone post is up, for non-thread-derailing.
Philosophically speaking, is it better to have a pitcher use his defense behind him or is it better to have a pitcher try to get everybody out himself via a K?
That comment I made about K/9 IP? I meant it.
There are very few pitchers who’ve had anything like a good career while being below league norms in K/9 IP, and generally, the higher out you start above the league in K/9 IP, the better pitcher you are.
It makes sense if you think about it; if your stuff is less hittable, you’re more likely to strike the other guy out, no?
Lew Burdette is one of the few examples I’m aware of players who had long, meaningful careers without good K/9 IP rates compared to the league, and Lew Burdette ALSO regularly led the league in allowing the fewest BB/9 IP.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burdele01.shtml
Even guys like Tommy John struck out their share of guys.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnto01.shtml
And also notice that Tommy John ALSO shows up on league leaderboards for low BB/9 IP.
I’d be more likely to buy the argument that Franklin’s more comparable to Lew Burdette than Elmer Desssens (http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/desseel01.shtml) if he kept his walk rates lower (like, among the best in baseball) – because I think you’re going to suck at striking guys out, you’d better be REALLY good at not giving them free passes to first.
RE 25, et al:
Rick Griffin should not be allowed to speak when it comes to medical issues when he doesn’t use medical terms. He gives bad, inaccurate impressions.
The original diagnosis on Eddie G was a “partial tear of his rotator cuff.” Eddie got a couple of opinions, one of which probably cited the (Dutch?) study that showed that surgery and rehab had *exactly* the same recovery rate for muscle tears in the shoulder, and chose to rest-and-rehab the injury.
So he did. His shoulder has been rested-and-rehabbed, and the tear has been patched up with scar tissue instead of stitches.
It actually was a “partial tear” of the rotator cuff, btw, not a complete tear. The rotator cuff is half a dozen muscles tying together to wrap the shoulder joint. He didn’t tear the whole thing, all those muscles, all the way. He tore one of them all the way, which is what Rick meant to say. One muscle torn all the way through, out of all the muscles of the rotator cuff.
You may remember Edgar Martinez tearing one of his hamstring tendons and just having it removed rather than repaired – it weakened the ties to the bone a bit, but not enough to be structurally catastrophic. John Elway won a couple of Super Bowls after tearing one of his biceps tendons and having it just balled up in his arm for a couple of seasons. These things can be overcome.
Is Eddie’s shoulder a liability? Yes. As are most pitchers’ shoulders.
Is it just hanging off his body and used in a pitching motion through some sort of amazing telekinetic feat? No.
Rick knows what he means, he just doesn’t say it well. So Shhhh, Rick. You’re not being helpful.
~G
Because every time you allow the batter to put the ball in play, you’re reducing the likelyhood of your team making an out. For a pitcher, strikeouts >>>> balls in play, so intentionally pitching to contact is, in general, a bad idea.
A quick probability question: doesn’t each ball put into play happen on an independant basis? That is, if each ball put into play has a ~30% chance of falling for a hit, the probability shouldn’t go up regardless of what the past balls in play did. Am I missing some basic math here?
That rotator cuff study is of dubious applicability for major league athletes, though.
bill,
I don’t think you are missing the key concept. Each event (an AB) is an independent event so the chance should remain the same. It could be argued that as BIP increases (incrementally by batter in a game) then pitcher effectiveness is lowered, therefore, likelihood of an out decreases.
After reading that line about how many times we’d have to play the second half to make the playoffs, I actually laughed. I’m reminded of a line from the great movie “Dumb and Dumber:â€Â
“So you’re saying there’s a chance!â€Â
Do you want to hear the most obnoxious sound in the world?
The Mariners rotation of Pineiro, Moyer, Meche, Sele, and Franklin has been worth about 9 wins over a replacement level pitching staff and about 1 win less than an average pitching staff. Franklin has been the team’s top starter, being worth 2.3 wins over a replacement level starting pitcher. That ranks him 55th in major league baseball and 26th in the American League
Well, I used to say that Franklin was perfectly fine as a #5 starter and it was just a problem when we needed him to be a #2 or #3. Now we’re asking him to be a #1…
Anyway, despite all the bits spilled in this thread Yay- or Boo- on Franklin, I still say Ryan Franklin is not a problem the team should be worrying about right now. He’s delivering an outstanding performance as our #5 starter (actually, as the #6 starter who got called back from the Bullpen to fill a hole). The problem is that #1-4 ahead of him are barely pitching AAA quality (or more correctly, alternating major league level performance one start with AA level pitching the next).
I just unearthed an amazing stat. Well, no not really, actually just one of those small sample size things. A certain Mariner leads the Majors in Win Share Percentage (Thats actual win share divided by (2 * expected win shares (a function of playing time)). Who do you suppose it is?
For the answer:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/winshares/index.php?sort=WSP&sort2=total&limit1=&limit2=&leagueLimit=AL
(BTW: Is it possible to add to either the comment guidelines or spelling & grammar link area in the top left the HTML advice you guys once posted? I wanted to make a link but forgot exactly how and don’t always necessarily have time to search through the archives.)
dw said:
July 11th, 2005 at 11:46 am
They were 13 1/2 back with 45 games to go
Oops. 13 back on August 11, 1951 with 44 to play.
http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/08111951.htm#1
The Mariners were 11 1/2 back (and in third place) on August 24, 1995 with 34 to play.
http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/08241995.htm#1
Hard to say which one is more remarkable. Probably the ‘95 surge, since the Giants stole the Dodgers’ signs in the ‘51 playoff game.
I strongly disagree.
1951 – One league of 8 teams is inherently more difficult to win than 1 division of 4 teams. The Dodgers were second with a winning percentage of .618 but the Angels were second with a winning percentage of .538. (The 1951 Cardinals were third with a winning percentage of .526.)
1951 – Quality of competition was stronger. To illustrate, count the Hall of Fame players on Brooklyn’s team and compare that to the Hall of Famers on California’s 1995 team.
Hate to make this a debate about the Brooklyn Dodgers, but the number of HOFers on the 51 Dodgers isn’t a measure of whether the overall competition was tougher in 51. Obviously comparing the number of HOFers doesn’t even tell you who had a better team. And besides, the 51 Dodgers were the beneficiary of cronyism on the Veterans Committee.
As of 1961, 10 years after 51, none of the 51 Dodgers were in the HOF. And of the 4 HOFers on that team, only Robinson is a clear choice — the other 3 (Snider, Campanella and Reese) are certainly debatable.
Edmonds is a likely HOFer. Garrett Anderson is possible if he has 7-8 more good years but not likely. So what?
It isn’t a direct measure. It’s illustrative. I’ll concede your point.
My argument about the structure of the leagues is my strongest one. On its face, it’s more difficult to beat 7 teams rather than 3, in spite of whatever small adjustments you make for the “better” athletes of today and the increased talent pool from foreign countries.