Perspective.
peter · August 10, 2005 at 1:02 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Jamie Moyer – 22 starts, 134.1 innings, 20.0 VORP
Ryan Franklin – 20 starts, 132.2 innings, 16.9 VORP
Felix Hernandez – 2 starts, 13.0 innings, 6.5 VORP
Jeff Harris – 1 start, 10.2 innings, 4.0 VORP
Gil Meche – 23 starts, 128.1 innings, 0.1 VORP
Joel Pineiro – 20 starts, 123.2 innings, 0.0 VORP
Aaron Sele – 21 starts, 116 innings, 0.0 VORP
Sample size, schmample size. In just two starts, Felix is now the M’s third best starting pitcher on the year.
Comments
63 Responses to “Perspective.”
Hah. I give up. At least the link worked.
Well, actually, a healthy Felix, one decent player and three chumps will get you into a playoff race, methinks….
““Felix†is a Latin word that can be translated as “lucky.—
He seems anything but. I heard rumors that Ryan actually meant lucky.
“Well, actually, a healthy Felix, one decent player and three chumps will get you into a playoff race, methinks….”
Well, even if Felix wins every time he goes out, we’re only .200
#53, yes … but if Felix goes 15-5 and the rest of the staff can manage to keep it at .500 we’ll have 86 wins. If we can help the rotation with a FA quality starter, that doesn’t seem so far fetched.
ESPN looked at this a few days ago, and the record of the last wave of teenage pitchers, from the sixties and seventies, was not good.
Often times those pitchers were brought up almost straight out of high school and put in the rotation more as a publicity stunt than because they were accomplished pitchers. Felix has been a professional baseball player for more than 2 years now and is up not solely to sell tickets, but is up because he is the best pitcher on the staff. They’re comparing apples to oranges.
#54, why do you think the rest of the lineup is suddenly going to be able to go .500?
26. I have the same question. I have read a lot about this, but still don’t understand it. It posits an average AAA player, and I don’t know how they calculate that.
26. I have the same question. I have read a lot about this, but still don’t understand it. It posits an average AAA player, and I don’t know how they calculate that.
What? No it doesn’t.
About calculating replacement-level. As far as I know, there isn’t a detailed explanation on the web. However, in the 2002 Baseball Prospectus book there is supposed to be an article explaining it. I know that’s not what anyone wanted to hear, but I don’t think there is a better answer.
I’m going to have to add this to the FAQ.
VORP, as a general concept, is
((runs/PA) – (replacement position runs/PA))*PA
You can calculate the runs in whatever way you want, and define replacement level runs in whatever way you want.
Now, as to how BP and, specifically, how Keith or Clay calculates replacement level… that’s another thing entirely.
Wait – I thought “young fireballers” were the type that had the best shot at long careers, and that “young crafty pinpoint control guys” (Meche, Pineiro) were the least likely, as a group, to succeed.
This was a Bill James study from one of the late 80s Abstracts, someone must know what became of it now and whether it needed updating.
Another way of putting this, is look at the Similarity Scores on baseball-reference.com. Look at Meche or Pineiro, and find 10 chumps for most similar pitchers — even before this year. No hall of famers. I remember checking Pineiro after his 16-4 season and being amazed to find nobody really good. A bunch of guys with early promise who fizzled, like Lynn McGlothen, Ben McDonald, Rick Rhoden and Jim Lonborg dot the list. He manages to be ‘most similar’ to Juan Marichal at age 24, but thats it. The only hall of famer in the bunch he resembles. And he fixes that by age 25, he’s back to being more like scrubs.
Meche’s is even worse. He manages to be ‘most similar’ to not one but two awful except for one season White Sox pitchers of the late 70s, Chris Knapp and Richard “280Z” Dotson. I remember Dotson went 22-7 one year but had an awful strat card. I think thats Meche’s high side.
So it’ll be fun by the end of the year to run numbers on Felix Hernandez and watch as a bunch of guys like Tom Seaver and Sam McDowell suddenly show up on his comparisons list. Not all will be hall of famers. Some will be tragic comps. Which of course is obvious, but I think the research I am aware of shows young fireballers have a much greater shot at long careers than young guys getting by on location and timing alone.
Speaking of PERSPECTIVE, as in, “Let’s try to keep things in…”
While thoughts of WALTER JOHNSON and ROGER CLEMENS rumble through my head, I also think of SMOKEY JOE WOOD and DAVE FERRIS.
Here’s SABR’s bio of BILL JAMES (the early 20th Century pitcher).
http://tinyurl.com/ah8kr