Marcos Carvajal
I’ve just learned that the PTBNL in the Yorvit Torrealba deal is RHP Marcos Carvajal. In describing him to a friend, I called him a Venezuelan Clint Nageotte with a better fastball, and I think that sums him up fairly well.
21-years-old, throws in the low to mid 90s, has a promising breaking ball and a change with good potential, and was relatively effective in the majors last year. He’s a groundball guy with mediocre command but enough stuff to miss a lot of bats. Carvajal is already a better pitcher than Putz or Mateo. Behind Soriano, he’s now the second best righty in the bullpen.
His expected fielding independant ERA last year, which adjusts for the HR inflation that Coors penalized him with, was 4.06.
Oh, he also makes the league minimum this year, and won’t cost significant money until after 2007. This is just a steal, no two ways about it.
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132 Responses to “Marcos Carvajal”
Barry Zito won’t be on the market next year. Beane will trade him to a team that can’t see his performance past his Cy Young reputation, just as he did with Hudson and Mulder, and the new team will sign him to a long-term deal, just as Beane’s victims did with Hudson and Mulder.
#96 – Agreed. I hate the idea of giving any pitcher a 5 year deal, but I would rather have Millwood on a 5 year contract than Morris (or anyone else who is out there) on a 3 year deal.
As a side note, I read some of the Carl Everett quotes. I had been planning to say (jokingly) that he believed the earth was flat. (Turns out he is undecided). I hate it when reality is stupider than the stupid jokes that come to my mind…
In my opinion (and it’s just my opinion), Jamie Moyer has a better chance of falling off the cliff and being a non-contributor in ‘06 than Kenny Rogers does in ‘06 or ‘07
See, that’s the thing: there’s not a lot of objective evidence to back up the opinion.
Rogers 2005 FIP and xFIP: 4.11 4.88
Moyer 2005 FIp and xFIP: 4.44 5.17
That’s just not large enough of a difference to justify millions of dollars and an extra year. Heck, it could possibly be random variance and not a definitive statement as to who’s better- it’s only ONE year, which still makes it suscuptible to Small Sample Size Theatre. (I usually prefer 3 year samples for mature pitchers or position players, unless there’s good reasons not to use them.)
Mind you, I was a proponent of signing Rogers this offseason IF the money was OK. I’d take him for what we paid Jamie on a one year deal (not over Jamie, really, but I considered him a viable option of eating innings). Other people here (coughDavecough) disagreed. But two years, 16 million? That’s crazy. Forget that.
I love the move for Carjaval, but I have a growing fear. Tomorrow’s headline:
Mariners reaquire Villone, ship out Carjaval.
It makes no sense in terms of salary or upside, but I could see us doing it. Ahhh!
Carvajal looks to be a fine young talent that is still raw.
Can’t wait to see what Chavez can do with this kid.
Nice little acquisition by Bavasi……as as for the rest of the winter meetings……..looks like we were in on the Wilkerson trade until Texas trumped us with Soriano….nothing like Bowden and his love of “toolsy” talent…….but don’t be surprised when Soriano’s performance tanks in RFK next season. He’s going to really miss those friendly confines in Arlington.
I’m fine with the miss on Wilkerson. Since apparently it was going to take Reed, I see that as a lateral move, it wasn’t addressing any of our holes. Now if we could have sent him Ibanez + Morse + Livinston + Johnson for Wilkerson + MiLB pitcher. I would have jumped all over that.
#106: I’m not aware of what the Nats were asking the M’s for to trade Wilkerson….the article I saw that referenced Lopez, Reed, and a pitching prospect, was what the Marlins asked the M’s for in a Pierre traded……..then the M’s countered with a lesser package and they went with the Cubs.
If you have a link to where it says what the Nats were asking for I’d be interested in reading it.
Thanks,
I dont have a link, but Paul has been saying he heard Reed, Livingston, Johnson for Wilkerson and AAA pitcher.
No way do I give millwood a 5 year contract, its a stretch at four years. I would much rather have weaver or washburn on a 3 year deal than millwood at 5 years. If your wondering why, go to baseball prospectus and see where millwood’s most comparable players were at age 35.
#101 With the way the market is going, what team is going to ship off three top prospects to rent Zito for one year? Zito is going to want a better deal than Burnett for sure and he’s probably more likely to want to test free agency than Hudson or Mulder.
If the A’s are out of contention in ’06 I could see someone trading some type of package for Zito next July but otherwise I think he’ll be on the market next winter.
fwiw, the Chronicle says “The A’s won’t give potential suitors permission to try to work out a contract extension with Barry Zito, who is eligible for free agency after next season.” That might not stop him from re-signing with his new team, but it doesn’t guarantee it.
109, wait to this year’s PECOTA to pass judgement on what Millwood will look like at 35.
Dealing for Zito during the winter, no contender is likely to have any worries about their ability to sign him to a long-term deal, unless Zito says something to give them reason; and so far, he hasn’t, and there’s no reason to expect he will. And given the kinds of players for whom teams have dealt top prospects, I have no doubt that someone will give at least a Hudson-like return for Zito, figuring he’s in the same class performance-wise as Burnett/Millwood, lower risk than either, and available (which Burnett no longer is, and Millwood soon won’t be); all of which makes him a far more appealing option than any of the other FA pitchers out there.
#113- wouldn’t it depend on where he is traded? Even without the ability to negotiate a long-term deal before the Hudson trade, the Braves had to be pretty confident, knowing Hudson was a local boy and that they were the Braves. If Zito is moved to the Mets, well, you have money being spent there & Rick Peterson as incentives, maybe he re-signs at the end of the year. But say he gets traded to a team like the Royals, what then?
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To be honest, this is _exactly_ the kind of deal I was hoping they would swing for Torrealba (and a few other guys, too), a guy with some significant tools but not sufficiently a ‘finished product’ to command a premium price, preferably at a position where the Ms organization was thin. Whether it pans out in the end or not, it’s the right kind of risk to take, and whoever in the Ms talent evaluation crew who graded out Carvajal gets my applause.
And yes, Evan in #58, the Nats are a natural destination for Meche. Or some of the other problem arms the Ms might better move than use.
Did anyone notice this in Larry Stone’s Times article today?
In ADDITION to Carvahal.
“The Mariners are expected to receive a second pitcher from the Rockies as well  left-handed pitcher Luis Gonzalez, the second overall pick in Friday’s Rule 5 draft of players not protected on teams’ 40-man rosters.
Gonzalez, 22, split last season between Class AA Jacksonville and Class AAA Las Vegas in the Dodgers’ organization, combining to go 7-3 with a 3.18 earned-run-average and seven saves in 51 relief appearances. He would have to spend the entire season on Seattle’s major-league roster or be offered back to Colorado for half of the $50,000 draft price.”
We get TWO young pitchers for Torrealba? If this is accurate, I feel a LOT better about this move than I did 24 hours ago.
Hopefully Gonzalez will take Thorton’s spot.
Dave, can you confirm that Gonzalez will also be coming our way? If true and this really frees us from Thornton’s clutches this will be one of the best trades we’ve ever made. I imagine that ends the Villone rumors as well? Anyone know how hard Gonzalez throws, and/or what pitches?
Courtesty of Baseball America:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/051208rule5.html
Gonzalez also has a power arm from the left side, throwing consistently 91-92 mph with his fastball, but was ineffective at Triple-A Las Vegas (9.31 ERA in 10 innings) after thriving at Double-A Jacksonville (7-2, 2.21, seven saves). His secondary stuffâ€â€a slider and changeup–is just average.
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I would like to see the M’s go with Fuentes, Thornton and Gonzalez if we need to keep him on the roster (assuming the trade is accurate). I know Thornton sucked it up but the guy is a lefty with mid 90’s stuff, I wouldn’t give up on him so quickly. Let him have another year in the Majors and see what we have. I would imagine he has some good trade value though.
The Rocky Mountain news also reported this morning that Gonzalez is part of the trade. It sounds like the M’s had the Rox grab him for them.
That story also mentioned that their plan for Carvajal had been to send him to AA and make a starting pitcher out of him. I’d hope the M’s plan to do the same, especially if they’re also going to have to carry Gonzalez in the honorary Matt Thornton roster slot.
#18, #95
“Harris DFAd to make room…”
Too bad it wasn’t Dobbs, as I think Harris may actually be a useful role pitcher.