Today’s roundup
Late update: Greg Dobbs is designated for assignment (!) to make room for LHP Jake Woods, claimed off waivers from the Rangers.
“Mariners bust budget to sign lefty” reads the PI headline. Except there’s nothing in the article about them busting their budget. The article does offer this ray of hope:
…indications are the Mariners want Reed more than they want Clement or Arroyo.
And from the humor department:
Franklin could be retained as insurance and as someone who could push Meche for a spot in the rotation. Or he could be non-tendered, thereby becoming a free agent. Given that he’s averaged 200 innings the past three seasons, he would be a hot commodity as a free agent.
I guess though that might depend on what you think “hot” means.
Art Thiel blasts the team for not re-signing Freddy Garcia, which along with other decisions forced them to overpay for Washburn, who Thiel is not so big on.
However, o’er at the Seattle Times, Bob Finnigan says Reed’s on the market as the team continues to look for pitching:
Even with Jarrod Washburn in the rotation, the Mariners are still in the trade market for another starting pitcher.
And while outfielder Jeremy Reed may be the leading candidate to go in any deal, the Boston Red Sox aren’t the only possible destination.
An industry source maintains that the New York Yankees are another possible trading partner.
Um, technically, any team is a possible trading partner. I’m just saying that if you’re going to grant anonymity to a source, shouldn’t you at least get something interesting out of them?
Larry Stone writes up the team’s line (“M’s believe Washburn is good fit for Safeco“) and ends the article with:
The team is engaged in ongoing trade talks involving Jeremy Reed, who could yield another starting pitcher. Bavasi indicated that any other acquisitions are likely aimed at improving their depth  “players that can back up or threaten some of the guys we have  in a good way. There’s a lot of fine-tuning to go through.”
They want someone to come in and threaten Everett, and someone else to get Everett’s back, and so on down the roster? That seems needlessly wasteful.
Corey Brock gets in the best lines of the day though o’er at the NT:
Jarrod Washburn can certainly empathize with what Seattle Mariners fans went through in 2005.
The 31-year-old left-handed pitcher, who on Monday agreed to a four-year contract for $37.5 million, said he was continually puzzled as to why the Mariners did not fare better last season.
No no wait, it gets even better:
“Every time we played against the Mariners last season I couldn’t believe they were not winning more games,†said Washburn, who played the past eight seasons for the Angels.
“The lineup they have – starting with Ichiro at the top – they’ve got some talented guys.â€Â
Ahhhh, that’s quality humor in arrangement there.
Comments
135 Responses to “Today’s roundup”
I know I should stay away from the ESPN.com rumor central, since my hopes have been dashed too many times. But, a small sliver of hope still exists in me that the M’s are not doomed for eternity, so I keep reading, and here are two interesting tidbits that I found:
1.) Apparently, on the Kevin Millwood front, the Rangers, an unknow east-coast team and the M’s are still pursuing him, in the $40-$50 million dollar range. That little sliver is speaking to me now, and I wonder if, with all the bad buzz over this offseason, would the M’s throw a ton of dough at Millwood, and appease the masses? Hell, it ain’t my money…..
2.) The M’s are tyrying to trade Meche today, either to the Rox, or to the Cubbies (for, ugh, Corey Patterson). Right now, I can’t imagine a possibility where a move results into something positive for the M’s. Maybe I’m just not imaginative enough. And, if we’re going to get really trade-friendly with a team, can it be one with more talent than the Colorado Rockies? Jeez.
Dave,
I don’t understand your comments about the Texas-SD deal. Who is the “best player” in the deal? It seems you can’t be talking about Eaton. Admittedly, I haven’t seen either player pitch in person. But using the kind of analysis you’ve done on potential FA acquisitions, it’s hard to see how this is good.
Eaton’s DERA (from BP) last year was 4.94, and 4.79 for his career. His career ERA+ is 92, 8% below league average. He hasn’t posted an ERA+ above 100 since his first year in MLB.
Contrast that with Chris Young. His DERA was 3.96 last year, 4.05 for his career. His career ERA+ is 105. His only two seasons in MLB have produced an ERA+ of 105 and 106. He’s one year younger than Eaton.
While the sample size for Young is pretty small, everything about their performance in MLB says that he is the better pitcher, by a good margin. And even if you didn’t expect him to continue to be better (although with a higher k/9, lower bb/9 and hr/9 than Eaton, one wonders why you would think that), is paying a below-average Eaton $4 million ever a good thing?
Jake, are you trying to say they’re STILL pursuing Millwood? That would seem to be way out of our budget now. I wonder if they really are.
Grizz, OK, maybe I was a little overzealous with my comment. However, even though there are some posts in the past in favor of more balanced analysis,it hasn’t been discussed much lately, particularly in regards to Washburn. Just a lot of “Bavasi is an idiot” comments.
If traded here, would Corey Patterson entertain a position move to left field? Moyer, Washburn, Felix, Joel and ?!?!?!?! could probably do alright with an OF of Patterson, Reed and Ichiro.
#103: Okay, I may have been a little too optimistic in what was reported on ESPN.com. All the rumor said was the Millwood has just met with the Rangers (but will they still sign him, with the trade for Eaton?), and that the M’s have offered a deal in the $40-50 mil range. Was that deal pulled after the Washburn signing? I’m hoping no, but the answer is probably yes.
#105 — And then what would we do with Carl Everett and Raul Ibanez? I am okay with Corey Patterson as a reclamation project. If we didn’t have the goal of competing at all in 2006, I would have preferred him over Everett, certainly. Still would, I guess, if it didn’t cost us anything.
Let’s try to chill on the rumors … we’ll know a lot more as of midnight.
Those Rangers are Actually Angels.
If Washburn got $37 million, no way Millwood is settling for $40/4, and maybe not even $50/5.
I like the observation first mentioned in #4 about what the M’s are trying to do. They want to look like they are doing things to improve the club right away, but they are concerned about short term appearance more than long term results.
[deleted extremely long URL pasted as text]
The same story also reports that the Cubs tendered a contract offer to Corey Patterson.
#110: Several published reports say that Boras is asking for 5 years and $60 million for Millwood.
I thought that link would work. This one should –
http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-051220cubs,1,122029.story?coll=cs-cubs-headlines
If not, go this route and click the JJ headline –
http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/
Pardon my mess.
And pardon my redundancy, due to not checking the thread. I resolve not to rush to be first again, until the next time.
Termel Sledge is one of my new favorite baseball players simply based on his name. He is moving ahead of the old Cinci double play combo of Pokie and Gookie.
More delightfully contradictory speculation:
“Jim Molony of MLB.com speculates on the people who will likely not be getting a contract offer on Tuesday.
The Brewers (Russell Branyan and Dan Kolb), Dodgers (Jason Phillips and Hee-Seop Choi), and Mariners (Ryan Frankin, Gil Meche, and Willie Bloomquist) seem to be the teams who are primed to let go of players in bulk.”
http://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/304688.html
this is dumb. why did the M’s release the Dobber?
“Why did the M’s release the Dobber?”
Because someone finally looked at his resume and realized he had a phenomenal track record of non-violence toward baseballs?
DavidE,
You took more out of my “hardcore” comment than I intended. There’s definitely a difference between the level of commitment to understanding the game between the average KJR listener and blog reader, but obviously, there are hardcore fans who care less about statistical analysis. That wasn’t the point I was trying to make.
As for why we’re not using much besides statistical analysis in regards to the Washburn signing, his scouting report is actually even more underwhelming than his performance record. There’s basically nothing to hang a Washburn-supporting hat on besides his 3.20 ERA last year. That’s why the M’s signed him, so that’s what we’ve discussed.
Dobbs was DFA’d because he’s unlikely to get claimed on waivers, and as a first time designee, he doesn’t have the right to decline an outright assignment to Tacoma. This doesn’t make it much less likely that he’ll be on the opening day roster. It’s a calculated risk that, by waiving Dobbs, they’ll lose no one.
It’s a calculated risk that, by waiving Dobbs, they’ll lose no one.
If they lost Dobbs, they’ll have lost no one.
[rimshot]
Thank ye, thank ye…I’ll be here until Friday….
#120 – Dave, I believe what you’re saying about Washburn, don’t get me wrong. The thing I have to ask, however, is why don’t the M’s (Bavasi specifically) see what you’re seeing if it’s so obvious? From what you’re saying (paraphrasing here), Washburn’s peripheral stats are suspect and his scouting report is worse.
It seems to me that no-one would touch Washburn with a 10 foot pole based on those facts. Both the statistically-inclined and the skills-inclined FO’s/scouts would/should be throwing up red flags about him. I don’t understand why they can’t see what you and the fellow USSM’ers see…
They can see it. They just value it differently than we do.
To the M’s, the 3.20 ERA trumps the poor strikeout rate. The fact that he’s a flyball pitcher, to them, is a good thing, since it makes him a good fit for Safeco. The postseason experience and his reputation as a bulldog are more important to them than the fact that his fastball tops out at 90 MPH.
I see what you’re saying, Dave.. thanks. I was hoping that they’d stop valuing the “bulldog” factor so much after the Aurilia and Spiezio fiascos…
I just don’t see how they think that the 3.20 ERA is something that is realistically repeatable. Even if they value ERA highly, his career stats should tell them not to expect a repeat performance… it’s very frustrating.
Choi would be a good backup option at first as he is another lefty with some power. BUT LA already resigned him to a one-year $725,000 contract according to ESPN. here’s the link. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2266893
I know Chris Young had a good season. I just don’t think he’ll do it again. His stuff is average, and he’s a ridiculous flyball pitcher. Since DavidE wants an example of when we use analysis other than straight sabermetric valuation, this is one; Chris Young isn’t as good as his numbers, and I think the Rangers sold high before his value dropped significantly next year.
Losing Adrian Gonzalez isn’t a huge blow. He has marginal trade value around the league, and the Rangers don’t have room for him. And Sledge is just a guy, especially if he’s off the ‘roids.
Eaton, I like more than anyone the Rangers gave up. It’s just one year, for now, but if they can re-sign him to a reasonable deal before he hits free agency, than they did well.
It’s not a home run. The Rangers overpaid a bit. But it’s not a terrible deal, and because I like Eaton more than Young, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt.
119- well why didn’t they look at Jake Woods resume and see he allows people to be violent towards a baseball.
Goodbye Franklin!
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-mariners-franklin&prov=ap&type=lgns
re: Washburn saying he thought the M’s were better than their record…. remember that the M’s swept the Angels twice last season. So it wouldn’t be hard to imagine he believed it.
On Choi, very strange. At the event Saturday, Jonah Keri said you never have as many starting pitchers as you think you do (as some don’t pan out). Perhaps the Dodgers think the same is true for first baseman. They Kent (once Izturis is back) and Garciaparra signed to significant contracts plus now Choi in the mix. I guess this is a good plan for when Nomar gets hurt. At the same time, I’m surprised that Choi didn’t wait to see if the Dodgers might non-tender him and try to hook on with a team that might give him more playing time. On second thought, maybe Choi is trade bait? Would the Dodgers want Meche?
As a Cubs fan I’ve followed the Corey Patterson situation a lot. His career is somewhat like Meche — good, young prospect, after a few years in the majors struggled horribly and was sent to AAA where he didn’t impress, and was called back up late in the year. (For Meche this was 2004 not 2005.) Seemed like an obvious non-tender on October 1st but as the off-season developed he appeared to fill a hole (before Jones was signed later today) and teams were lining up to grab him when he was non-tendered. I think Patterson is trade bait; he doesn’t have a spot and isn’t a good platoon partner for Jones or Pierre.
We can only hope, but I’ve seen no indication the M’s are ready to cut ties with the latter two.
I realize this is somwhat off topic since it isn’t about the M’s, but it looks like Johnny Damon has signed with the Yankees for 4 years 52mil. Here comes the push for Reed from Boston!
good move! get rid of franklin, beak, strong. Keep Willie!!!
Whhops, I forgot a link:
http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-spdamon1221,0,7603605.story?coll=ny-sports-headlines
If it’s any consolation, the Yankees just signed Johnny Damon to a 4 year/52 million contract. Looks like the Mariners are the only ones signing free agents to bloated contracts.
correction: Looks like the Mariners areN’T the only ones signing free agents to bloated contracts.