Thoughts from the first two games
Dave · April 5, 2006 at 10:42 am · Filed Under
Mariners
Since I was blessed with some extraordinary seats for last night’s shindig, I’ve got a few more thoughts than normal about what we’ve seen the first 48 hours of the season. They’re all pretty disconnected, though, so let’s just do a notes column, shall we?
If Hargrove is going to have his #2 man bunt that often, I’d rather get Jose Lopez out of there.
Beltre looks just like he did last year. He’s still struggling with pitch recognition and appears to be guessing, rather than reacting, to what is coming out of the pitcher’s hand. A guy with his swing should never have an 88 MPH fastball thrown by him.
Kenji’s got a few different swings. His homer on Tuesday was an entirely different swing than his homer on Monday.
Betancourt actually got caught moving early at shortstop, which was the first time I’d ever seen him break the wrong way on a ball. He had shifted his body weight towards the third base hole on a grounder up the middle, and it cost him what should have been an out. He’s still a fantastic defender, though.
Joel, at this point, is a junkballer extraordinaire. He’s essentially abandoned the four seamer, throwing almost exclusively two seam fastballs in the 88-90 range and throwing an awful lot of off speed stuff. His change-up was fantastic yesterday. You can forget any thoughts of him being a power pitcher. He’s basically turned himself into a poor man’s Brad Radke.
Rafael Soriano is being used almost perfectly by Hargrove. He’s the best reliever on the team, and he’s coming in to get starters out of tough situations in the middle innings. That’s fantastic. He looks like he’s almost back to where he was when he was the best reliever in the AL.
J.J. Putz just needs to vary his pitches more. On Monday, he threw something like 14 consecutive four seam fastballs, all 94-96. On Tuesday, he came in and just kept firing off four seam fastballs until Juan Rivera put one over the wall. After that, he busted out the split finger, and threw it about 80 percent of the time for the rest of the inning, having no problems. As a one pitch guy, he’s useless. Mixing in the splitter, he’s okay. Throw more splitters, J.J.
The Angels offense looks pretty mediocre right now, but when they add Dallas McPherson, Brandon Wood, Howie Kendrick, and Kendry Morales at some point during the year, it’s going to get better in a hurry.
The M’s new aggressive baserunning has led to some of the worst decisions I’ve seen on the basepaths. Getting the extra base is not worth getting gunned down over. This is going to be a source of angst on the blog for the entire year, I think.
Jeremy Reed is pulling his head when trying to pull the inside fastball. That should be something Pentland can correct pretty quick. A good first test for the hitting coach.
1-1 against Bartolo Colon and John Lackey, competitive both games, and Felix hasn’t even pitched yet? That’s about as good a start as you could possibly hope for.
Comments
The Anaheim lineup is pretty ho-hum for a contender. Anderson is tailing off and you’ve gotta wonder how long they stick with the Erstads and Kennedys of the world. Kotchman should be moved up in the lineup, I predict he’ll be their second best hitter behind Vlad when all is said and done. Cabrera and his career .315 OBP in the 2 hole is something I’d never do, I guess it’s because he “does the little things” and “handles the bat well”.
Second judging Hargrove last night:
Why the bunt from Lopez with 2 on and nobody out last night? With a lefty (Ibanez) coming up, you have to figure they are going to walk him anyway to set up the double play, so why give the out up? Lackey proceeded to walk Ibanez and went right through Sexson and Beltre for the second and third outs of the inning. Let the kid hit.
Why JJ Putz, for the second night in a row in the 8th? Putz struggled the night before and we didn’t see Mateo then. Sure enough, Putz made things interesting, but I would have used Mateo there. You’re carrying 12 pitchers, why go to the same one who struggled against that team for the second day in a row? Mateo would have been my choice.
“Why the bunt from Lopez with 2 on and nobody out last night? With a lefty (Ibanez) coming up, you have to figure they are going to walk him anyway to set up the double play, so why give the out up?”
Admittedly, I haven’t run the numbers, but I’ll take the bases loaded, 1 out, and Sexson/Beltre coming up out of Lopez being up with 1st and 2nd and 0 outs any day.
Dave, on Sunday, you made one statement about Lopez that surprised me – something to the effect that unlike the M’s organization, you did not care whether Lopez ever hit to the opposite field. Was this a slight exaggeration to reinforce your point, or was no hyperbole intended? It seems that his shelf life as a major-leaguer regular would depend on some ability to hit the other way. If he attempts to pull every pitch, pitchers should use that against him. His value as a hitter is going to come from his power and he does not appear to have the frame to develop opposite field power, so a good approach for him may be to look for a pitch to pull. But doesn’t he need to develop some ability to smack outside pitches towards right-center field to get those pitches he can pull?
Beltre looks just like he did last year. He’s still struggling with pitch recognition and appears to be guessing, rather than reacting, to what is coming out of the pitcher’s hand. A guy with his swing should never have an 88 MPH fastball thrown by him.
In his first at-bat on Monday I was impressed at how he kept taking the down-and-away pitch instead of fishing for it. Watching him do that all last year was just a pain in the rear.
But yeah, when you’re flailing at bad fastballs and hitting stuff on the ground you should be hitting in the air, you gotta wonder what’s wrong now.
Joel, at this point, is a junkballer extraordinaire…. His change-up was fantastic yesterday. You can forget any thoughts of him being a power pitcher. He’s basically turned himself into a poor man’s Brad Radke.
If he can minimize his mistake pitches, he’ll be a low-4 ERA pitcher rather than high-4, the M’s will be a .500 team, and the Yanks will make him rich.
The Angels offense looks pretty mediocre right now, but when they add Dallas McPherson, Brandon Wood, Howie Kendrick, and Kendry Morales at some point during the year, it’s going to get better in a hurry.
Or maybe not. McPherson couldn’t make the jump last year, at least. I think we’re looking at the Angels offense. And it’s not at all bad. Rivera was a great value pickup.
Their defense, though, is very lackluster, and that’s going to lose them some games they shouldn’t lose this year.
Dave, you want to talk about Colon’s loss of velocity after the 3rd inning? He was hitting 93-94 in the first, but by that messy 5th he was having trouble hitting 90.
So who mugged Beltre between the WBC and now? God damnit, I was looking for a bounce back from him. This is unfair.
Putz really did throw nothing but 4 seamers until that Rivera HR. I don’t know why it took Kenji that long to call for something else.
And Grover does admit that this aggressive baserunning is going to result in some ugly outs. Like Reed’s, which wasn’t an out, but it should have been.
Don’t blame Kenji. Pitch selection is ultimately the pitcher’s responsibility. Besides, do we know that JJ never shook Kenji off?
Dave, on Sunday, you made one statement about Lopez that surprised me – something to the effect that unlike the M’s organization, you did not care whether Lopez ever hit to the opposite field. Was this a slight exaggeration to reinforce your point, or was no hyperbole intended?
That was an exaggeration to drive home a point. Clearly, he has to hit to right field sometimes, but I think the organization as a whole is far too focused on him hitting weak singles to the right side to the detriment of him hitting long doubles to the left side.
Dave, you want to talk about Colon’s loss of velocity after the 3rd inning? He was hitting 93-94 in the first, but by that messy 5th he was having trouble hitting 90.
He was hitting 93-94 in the first, but not consistently. He sat around 90-91 most of the game. I wouldn’t call it velocity loss. I’d call it absense of velocity. And I’m guessing he’s still not unleashing his full motion due to worries about his shoulder. Or he’s still hurt. One of the two.
I suspect that JJ gets overruled more by Kenji as the year moves on and he has to spend less time developing a rapport with the starters (like when he and Moyer had to converse about signs) and more time with the bullpen. It may also be something where getting into game situations and JJ throwing his splitter for strikes is something JJ isn’t used to so it’s a confidence issue that can be corrected.
And so far I like the M’s. there aren’t any glaring holes yet or easy outs, they seem to have the singles and power ability where they need it so that they at least have a chance to rally in most games this year. There will be some very ugly moments this year, but I think this is probably a .500 team which is an improvement.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=neel/060405
I don’t know how many of you have seen that, but Jonah has got an interview up with Page 2 on ESPN.com always a good read..
The M’s new aggressive baserunning has led to some of the worst decisions I’ve seen on the basepaths. Getting the extra base is not worth getting gunned down over. This is going to be a source of angst on the blog for the entire year, I think.
Another potential piece of evidence to support an early firing of Hargrove this year? At FanFest this year, Chuck Armstrong (somewhat suprisingly) mentioned that it was very important to manage your outs wisely. Obviously being over-aggressive on the basepaths doesn’t bode well for managing those outs. Reed and Sexson yesterday, and Lopez on Monday. All three of those examples were very expensive on the cost-benefit scale (and, outside of Reed getting lucky, burned the M’s pretty badly).
2 games people
I know its hard after 162 last year, but lets wait on Beltre a bit.
The A’s and Rangers have a team of prognosticators that use projective stats to predict what kind of offense each team int he league will put out on the field for 2006…
Both clubs think LAA scores the least runs in the AL.
This stretching of base hits into double/triples and trying to get the extra base is going to drive me nuts! I don’t see how this is going to pay dividends when we need all the base runners we can get. I understand the theory, but I don’t agree that it will work at all as the first 2 games have shown.
Re: Soriano…
To go a slight bit further than Dave did, or to elaborate a step further anyways, Soriano is being used when the team’s best reliever should be. Instead of reserving him for the 8th inning, he’s facing the Angels’ best hitters in game-changing situations.
Chaves expects Soriano’s velocity to rise as the season goes, so the 91-94 that he’s sitting in now could be better at 93-97.
And though his slider isn’t a sharp hammer-style pitch, it’s certainly giving hitters something else to protect against.
If we’ve learned one thing about the team as a whole, it’s that it’s got more fight in it than even opening week a year ago.
Thank goodness for the youth.
In the after-game interview broadcast on the radio last night (and reproduced in the games notes at the bottom of this recap), Hargrove said Lopez decided to do the second bunt “on his own.” Now, Hargrove could be lying, and you certainly could argue he needs to give better instruction to his #2 hitter, but that’s what he said.
Jason brings up a good point there, which is that as we’ve seen at different points in Melvin’s bullpen-sorting, he’s using his best reliever at the most important part of the game essentially by accident — as he gains faith in Soriano’s health, he’ll probably be moved into a more traditional setup role, if Hargrove’s past statements about the bullpen situation hold up.
I think we have played competent baseball so far; sample size = 2.
This is a marked improvement over last year, and something to be pleased with. If we can get through the next two months and still feel like we have played competent baseball over that stretch, then we stop focusing on the bleeding and start focusing on the future.
For example, two months of competent baseball would give us and the team the ability to look at our young guys to see what their upside is: Are playing at the top of their range. Are they getting the most out of their tools? Will more experience and instruction help them to improve?
The key to the pen, for me, is Sherrill. If Grover comes around and uses him as a full inning relief ace, rather than a lefty specialist, we’ve got a couple of solid arms in the 7th/8th inning areas. If he’s going to insist on Sherrill being a match-up guy, to be relieved by Putz or Mateo at first sign of a right-handed hitter, the pen as a whole will be less effective.
as he gains faith in Soriano’s health, he’ll probably be moved into a more traditional setup role, if Hargrove’s past statements about the bullpen situation hold up.
And this will just move us that much closer to Hargrove being handed a box and given 15 minutes.
This bullpen really worries me. Soriano’s great, Sherrill’s OK, but everyone else seems inconsistent at best, Ayala on a really bad night at worst.
The announcers inferred last night that Grover wasn’t too upset about Lopez getting thrown out on Monday, because Grover appreciates the aggressiveness.
Yes, this has the makings of a frustrating problem this year.
Grover said as much. I think Hendu said “he likes the aggression” which was pretty funny/pathetic.
If the aggressive baserunning is supposed to shake up the opposing defense, I’d say that aspect at least is working. I’m not sure I’ve seen the Angels commit four errors in one game before, much less so many of them being of the “Wherefore art thou, Casey Kotchman?” aiming mistakes.
Is it possible someone noticed that Scocia was walking Ibanez to get to Sexson and took advantage of it in the 8th? Lopez’ bunt set up Sexson’s 3-run dinger which was the difference in the game. Hard to see the down side of that move!
To me Scocia is the one you have to wonder about. He consistently walked Ibanez to get to Sexson / Beltre with men in scoring position. How is he NOT going to get bit by that eventually?
I’ve been looking at some Mariners highlights from MLB.com last year, and concentrated on Betancourt. He made one play from his knees, and another he fielded a slow roller on the second-base side of second-base. Truly a marvel. Watching him just those few times, and it’s clear what an animal he is. The Mariners fans that participated in my scouting report made it very clear that he is one of the best fielders in all of baseball (though Ichiro is a shade ahead).
Is it too early to start a Betancourt-Gold Glove-watch? Document every play he made (and did not make), as a “report card”. It’s be a travesty if Jeter wins again.
25 I agree. I was listening in the car trying to still trying to absorb some Fairly obvious commentary about first pitch strikes, and next thing I heard they were walking Ibanez to load the bases for Richie. I couldn’t believe my ears. Scioscia better watch himself if he keeps up with that kind of strategy. It’s like he was trying to out-dumb Hargrove.
Betancourt won’t win the gold glove this year, but once he establishes himself with a bit of a rep, he’s got a great shot to win about 10 in a row.
His instincts and reactions are just crazy.
Yeah don’t the actual GGs come about 2 or 3 years after the guy is well established as the best at his position?
I’m surprised no one has mentioned the coolest thing: M’s are in first place in the AL West! Enjoy it while it lasts (the end of today?)
Yes, I know it’s a 4-way tie . . .
Ozzie won it in his 3rd year. And he had Concepcion to contend with. Ichiro as a “rookie”. Ryno, Andruw, Junior, Pettis and Devon White in their 2nd full year.
This is the internet age. Information spreads like wildfire. The Mariners front office should be putting out a Betancourt DVD and sending it out to the coaches and media.
Beltre looks just like he did last year. He’s still struggling with pitch recognition and appears to be guessing, rather than reacting, to what is coming out of the pitcher’s hand. A guy with his swing should never have an 88 MPH fastball thrown by him.
I don’t recall any 88 MPH fastballs getting past him. Lackey blew him down in the fourth on a 93 MPH heater. I don’t think I’ve seen an Angel pitcher throw a fastball below 90 MPH yet.
He’s basically turned himself into a poor man’s Brad Radke
Well, at least Joel himself isn’t poor. 6 million was it?
The M’s new aggressive baserunning has led to some of the worst decisions I’ve seen on the basepaths. Getting the extra base is not worth getting gunned down over. This is going to be a source of angst on the blog for the entire year, I think.
Then I have good news. Hargrove gave you a statistical way of analyzing the success / failure of the aggressive baserunning!
Woo hoo! Quantifying success ratio! Someone keep track! I know that so far we’ve had Lopez getting thrown out trying to take second, Sexson having the same problem, and Reed should have been (errors on throw do not count as successes in my book). So that’s 3 bad ones, which means we should have already had 15 good ones, right?!
Anybody keeping track?
I think taken literally Hargrove said that only 1 out of six outs on the basepaths will be ugly while the remaining five outs will (at least) look good.
Well, a good-looking out is still an out in my book.
Ichiro was a huge name even though he was a rookie. I’m not sure about Ozzie, but even with him it took three years and he made super acrobatic plays and did backflips. That will get you noticed.
Betancourt will hit at league average at best and play stellar defense on a craptacular team. Also his outstanding range will make a lot of plays that people like Jeter have to dive for routine. I’d bet good money it takes people a while to notice just how good he is.
34. LOL
If it’s looks that counts, 6 feet, 8 inches of ballplayer sliding hard and headfirst into second looked pretty good. Scary (both for defenders and home-team fans) but impressive nonetheless.
The M’s games are starting to look like Colorado Rockies games (a scary thought since the first two offerings were played at Safeco). Is the two-seamer really that key to turning around inconsistent pitchers, or are we looking at success prior to adjustment by AL hitters?
I’m not sure I understand your pleased attitude towards the first 2 games. The M’s played horribly in both, they were only saved in the 2nd by the Angels managing to be even worse. The lack of clutch hitting (2 bases loaded, nobody out, nobody scores situations in the first 2 games!!) and the relief pitching (with the notable exception of Soriano) have been appalling. I’m at the point where I start swearing at the TV whenever Putz comes in. You’re right about his failure to mix up his pitches, but he’s been failing to do that ever since he came up; somehow I doubt this is going to change at this point. This team has some decent talent, but there’s too much dead wood (I totally agree with you about Beltre), and it’s poorly managed. A .500 season is hoping for too much, I think.
Question – where’s the “Hargrove may get fired” sentiment coming from in the organization? Surely Bavasi hired him, so why would he get impatient and dump him now?
Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see him go – he’s as unimaginative and old skool as it gets, I just don’t see where the impetus to fire him would come from within the organization.
The M’s played horribly in both, they were only saved in the 2nd by the Angels managing to be even worse.
Through two games, against two of the premier starting pitchers in the league, they hit .301/.363/.493. They swung the bats well both days. That’s not playing horribly.
The lack of clutch hitting…
They’re hitting .364/.462/.455 with runners on base. That’s not a lack of clutch hitting.
Seems to me it’s the pitchers who’ve been letting down the side, not the hitters. If you can call 1-1 after two games let down.
The Mariners had a shot at winning both games. The first game I completely blamed Hargrove for. 6th inning, Jeremy Reed comes up with the bases loaded (a career .200/.285/.273 vs. LH) and you don’t pinch hit for him? If it’s the 3rd inning, fine but at this point you have to realize that you’re potentially looking at the game right here. You have an opportunity to win the game outright and you come away with nothing.
Joe Borchard should have been hitting there.
Also, I’m going to take this time to also add that Petagine should be the DH against RHPs!
Joe-Jim is extremely impressive thus far. Yes, he had one swing for one HR, and another for the other, but his most impressive at-bat might have been late Tuesday night when he singled in Beltre from 3B for an insurance run even through the Ms were already up by four at that point. Kenji worked the count, got a decent but hittable breaking ball, stayed back on the pitch really well, had his head on the ball when he finally swung, and followed through cleanly to drive the pitch through the infield. This man: understands the strike zone, has pitch recognition, is on top of the game situation, knows how to hit, and has power when he gets his pitch. Oh, and reputedly he walks a bunch too, though we haven’t seen that yet; the league is still coming after him at the plate to see how his bat plays, one suspects
Johjima’s assertiveness behind the plate has been remarked on, and while one can speak to that too much this team in particular could use some leadership on the field, yes. More than that, though, Johjima’s focus on plan-to-win not hope-to-win with every pitch brings some real energy that I hope some other players in the infield at least will feed off of. Three games on, it’s stone obvious why Ichiro personally made an effort to recruit the guy to come here. Even after this few games, I’m only reinforced in the view that Johjima is the best free agent signed by any team last offseason.
Re: the thread comments:
Putz – I totally agree, and thought so too. That HR by Rivera was no surprise; somebody was going to tag him. And Putz did this all last year, too. Johjima seems too smart to call for all those four-seamers down the pipe; is it Putz—or Grover? If JJ was a smarter man who attacked hitters with a plan, he’s got closer stuff, but if he thinks at all its as a thrower. Oh well.
Soriano – Yeah, that was interesting, the way he was used specifically against the LA-LAs big hitters in the key situation. But as said by others, they’ll probably make an 8th inning guy out of Soriano when they’re comfortable that he’s comfortable with his arm. But the dude looks _hairy_ on the mound. [Just as a note, Dave, I’m the guy in the purple shirt at the Schmoozefest who asked Bill B. whether Soriano would end up starting, but I had to cut out before the wrap-up.]
Reed – Yup. Did that for much of last year, too. Jeremy looks, to me, exactly like he did a year ago. Watching his ABs, I couldn’t tell what year it was.
Beltre – Yup. Seems totally lost at the plate, not only guessing but guessing wrong. Yes, there _was_ an 88 mph fastball that went right by him down the middle of the plate. Adrian doesn’t protect the plate well, either. And he’s still pulling everything with a maximum swing when he does cut loose. He can be totally pitched to, to get him to pull those medium grounders to the left side of the infield, just like he did all last year, just like the Angels got him to do twice with men on base so far. Beltre looks EXACTLY like he did a year ago, same pluses, same minuses. That basket catch of the deep foul fly he made, though, was freakin’ awesome; I’ve _never_ seen any 3Bman get that deep on a ball.
Piniero – I didn’t see the whole game, so it’s interesting to hear from you, Dave, that he’s ditched the four-seamer. That seems like the good decision, though, as he wasn’t locating it all that well last year. Now, he tops out at 91 mph, expends a lot of pitches working the corners, and expects to get his outs off the curve and change, mostly from groundball outs. If he’s sharp, he gets some Ks, but he doesn’t have any room to make mistakes, and can’t walk anybody. His control isn’t quite as sharp as Radke, or say Moyer from the other side, that’s the hitch in the plan. Still, Joel can be a useful pitcher with that matrix. He’s going to hit his pitch count around the sixth inning every start, though, and he won’t be throwing too many shutouts.
Lopez and Betancourt hitting the other way – In principle I agree that hitting flare singles the other way is no great advance. There is one residual positive in this that may pay some dividends. The largest issue with both of these guys has been a lack of pitch recognition; they came to the plate with one plan, and used it for every pitch. Drilling them to take the outside pitch the other way is disguised way of getting them to think “different pitches, different approaches,” and so to sharpen up their recognition not only of what the pitch is but what the pitcher’s plan of attack against them is. Yes, two years from now Lopez should be pulling doubles off the wall and Yubet lining triples like laserbeams gap to gap, and we’ll see very few of these weak opposite field grounders through the infield. But first the guys need to _think_ at the plate, to read the pitch they get so that they can get the pitch they want. . . . Now, if only we could get the same message to Beltre, but the $75M earplugs he was given seem to have impeded the reception.
Sherril closed tonight, Wednesday, so that answers the question. Chaves at least wants him as the alternate closer when Eddie is unavailable (which after 41 heaves Tuesday night was the case). I’m hoping Sherril is the closer in ’07, and this may be his audition.