The M’s can stop playing now
2-0 wooooooo! Clearly the positive tone of yesterday’s game post is to be credited.
Over on the Cheater’s Guide Blog, I look at the Angels’ K-Rod cheating in the first game of the year.
I built this to put in what I knew would be nearly identical stories from the two papers, but the Times is being slow to post tomorrow’s stories, so all you get are the PI links right now. Hopefully they post before I fall asleep here.
The M’s matched last season’s win total against the A’s: PI. The Times story curiously pushes it to the seventh paragraph. Of course, Mr. Baker wasn’t here last year and has no idea how traumatic it was.
Morrow’s first start gets a story in the PI
Batista says nice things about Felix. Betancourt might miss a game to testify that big trial thing.
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Assuming I’m not allowed to bench Vidro?
Vs RHP:
Ichiro-Johjima-Ibanez-Beltre-Sexson-Guillen-Lopez-Vidro-Betancourt.
Vs LHP:
Ichiro-Johjima-Beltre-Sexson-Guillen-Ibanez-Lopez-Vidro-Betancourt.
#49 – Amen to that. So many good childhood memories involve a warm summer day, or cool evening, and Dave’s voice on the radio making the game come alive. You are right, he’s not going to be here forever.
As far as Blowers goes, I just think we are doing awful with color analysts. I am not sure it’s that hard a job, but in the many broadcasts from other teams I hear (MLB Extra Innings), I have to say there aren’t a ton of good ones. You would think color analysts would be like DH’s, one of the easier roles to fill. Many are just annoying. This may not be a shared view, but I actually didn’t mind the rare instances in which Dave did the play-by-play and Rizzs was the side-kick. He seemed less artificial, and somewhat human. Or maybe I just tuned him out, hard to remember.
I for one, like Sims for his voice. It doesn’t make me want to gauge my eyes out with pencils. Give him some time, he’ll figure this baseball thing out.
I’m surprised to hear you say that you would move Beltre out of the #2 spot. For whatever reason, it just seems to work better for him.
And yes, I agree that there aren’t many good broadcasters out there. Of what I’ve heard, I’ve liked the Brewers broadcasters the best, and they weren’t any great shakes.
Horrible: Chicago White Sox. YOUCANPUTITONTHEBOOOOOOOOOOARD YES! Ugh.
MSB: What the ‘eck happened to game 3 in 2003?
I’m surprised to hear you say that you would move Beltre out of the #2 spot. For whatever reason, it just seems to work better for him.
I don’t think line-up position has anything to do with it. He started hitting better in the #2 spot, but he didn’t start hitting better because he was in the #2 spot.
#54, or Dave – I hear (over and over it seems)that one of the reasons Beltre does better in the number 2 slot is he gets more fastballs when Ichiro is on. Is there statistical proof for this? Beltre has had pitch recognition problems (not quite Pedro Cerrano hacking at every curve, but close at times). Is he getting a more steady diet of fastballs, and is that making any difference (obviously we must focus on last year, since two games offer little help)? Just wondering.
Given my somewhat blunt reply, I must add that Sims isn’t perfect and he certainly has room for improvement. But last night’s telecast (I went to Safeco Field on Monday) was the first time in a long while that the words of the broadcast team didn’t have me, at any time, howling anything like “SHUT UP” or “YOU IDIOT” in response to what was said, or had me reaching for the mute button. Sure, announcers will always make questionable claims, but the Sims/Blowers team didn’t throw out the salvo of dumb, inaccurate/unfounded remarks that came with Red, Hendu and Rico telecasts.
Sims brought a fresh perspective and enthusiasm that wasn’t of the contrived, phony Rizzs variety (or at least not obviously so, as it always was with Rizzs).
Dave is simply using the players to their strengths. Jojima may also ground into a lot of double plays this year, but his ability to get on base is a lot better then Vidro’s. Plus he hits for more power. Jojima should be the second hitter on this team. Beltre is a third – fourth batter. The whole thing with him hitting better in the 2 spot is garbage. The 2nd batter in the order doesn’t mean jack, he still hit the way he did with his own skills. The only thing that might have helped would have been mental, and for that Beltre can just get over it.
#54, or Dave – I hear (over and over it seems)that one of the reasons Beltre does better in the number 2 slot is he gets more fastballs when Ichiro is on. Is there statistical proof for this? Beltre has had pitch recognition problems (not quite Pedro Cerrano hacking at every curve, but close at times). Is he getting a more steady diet of fastballs, and is that making any difference (obviously we must focus on last year, since two games offer little help)? Just wondering.
There have been all kinds of research done on these kinds of topics, and they all come the same conclusion – there’s no proof of any of it, and it’s probably just not true.
Sexson had a terrible first half last year and hit well above league average in the 2nd half. I think there is optimism that he could continue that going forward.
I’m not claiming that he is worth $14M or that we should or shouldn’t trade him. I’m just saying that I think there is valid hope that he can at least get back to 2005 numbers.
Typical Idiot Fan – I agree with you that line up spot shouldn’t matter. I agree with you that if it’s anything it’s probably mental and more likely coincidental. If it’s mental, I don’t think you can oversimplify it by saying “get over it”. I’m just saying that line up order doesn’t matter enough for me to mess with it.
We all agree that Vidro sucks, which is pretty much the problem.
Sexson had a terrible first half last year and hit well above league average in the 2nd half. I think there is optimism that he could continue that going forward.
This is one of the main ways fans overestimate players on their own teams; interpreting hot streaks as true talent level. You’ll often see people point to various points of a players career and say “see, that’s what he can really do if he puts it all together”, when they’re not actually capable of sustaining that kind of performance over long periods of time.
Sexson’s not as bad as he was in the first half, nor as good as he was in the second half.
Dave,
– I’m confused why having Johjima at #2 would be different than having Vidro at #3 with regards to the whole GIDP problem. Based on previous posts it has been said that since Vidro hits more than 50% of his balls on the ground and runs really slow he will hit into an inordinate amount of double plays. Last year Johjima hit more than 50% of his balls on the ground and he certainly isn’t much faster than Vidro.
– Also, with regards to Beltre you said there has been all kinds of research done on these kind(s) of topic(s). I don’t understand are you saying that there has been nothing done with specific regards to Beltre or that there has been other research that you are somehow applying to the Beltre situation?
I’m confused why having Johjima at #2 would be different than having Vidro at #3 with regards to the whole GIDP problem. Based on previous posts it has been said that since Vidro hits more than 50% of his balls on the ground and runs really slow he will hit into an inordinate amount of double plays. Last year Johjima hit more than 50% of his balls on the ground and he certainly isn’t much faster than Vidro.
Johjima’s GB% last year was 44.8%, and we don’t have four years of data that show him to be an extreme groundball hitter, so while the difference between him and Vidro for ’06 isn’t huge, we still have to project Vidro to be the more extreme groundball hitter in 2007. Johjima also has more power than Vidro, and hitting him second instead of hitting Vidro third would lead to 20 or 30 less double play opportunities for the slow groundball guy.
– Also, with regards to Beltre you said there has been all kinds of research done on these kind(s) of topic(s). I don’t understand are you saying that there has been nothing done with specific regards to Beltre or that there has been other research that you are somehow applying to the Beltre situation?
We don’t have to do specific research on every single example of a certain phenomenon to come to a general conclusion about the validity of a strategy as a whole. If we study a couple hundred players and are able to determine that there is no evidence of a change in performance due to line-up position, we can safely assume that Beltre is likely affected in a similar way to the large sample of players we studied and is not an historical anomoly.
Will it lead to 100% accuracy? No. But it’s far better than using flawed “correlation = causation” thinking and setting a poor line-up based on a belief that we have no way of knowing is true or not.
Basically, for Beltre to have some special need to hit 2nd rather than 3rd, you’d have to believe that he’s somehow special and different from the great majority of his peers. A couple hundred at-bats in one season isn’t anywhere near enough information to draw that conclusion.
Basically, for Beltre to have some special need to hit 2nd rather than 3rd, you’d have to believe that he’s somehow special and different from the great majority of his peers. A couple hundred at-bats in one season isn’t anywhere near enough information to draw that conclusion.
Well, that isn’t the only possibility (and I am not arguing in favor of this). Another basis for the theory could be that the person batting before Beltre is different from the great majority of his peers, and assumptions about what a fastball delivery may give you – quick delivery to the plate, less chance of balls in the dirt, etc. in order to keep Ichiro honest.
Again, I don’t support the theory, having no information about it, but I think some believe Beltre is seeing more fastballs based on some assumptions about Ichiro, at least as much as about Beltre.
Again, I don’t support the theory, having no information about it, but I think some believe Beltre is seeing more fastballs based on some assumptions about Ichiro, at least as much as about Beltre.
Of course, there’s no evidence that anyone besides Beltre is getting this #2 hole hitter benefit, and Ichiro’s been around for six years years. If Ichiro was the cause, it’d be demonstrably obvious in the performance of everyone who has hit behind him since 2001. And it’s not.
Also, when Jeff Sullivan and I plowed into the BIS pitch-by-pitch data on why Beltre was struggling, the clear problem was that he wasn’t hitting fastballs as well as he did in Los Angeles. It wasn’t that the quantity of fastballs that had declined, but his ability to hit them.
And, again, going back to the line-up thing – the burden of proof for creating a sub-optimal batting order is on the side proving that Beltre’s performance will be significantly better in the 2nd spot than it would be in the 3rd spot. You don’t set a batting order with the low OBP/high SLG guy in front of the high OBP/low SLG guy just because of a theory that has generally been disproven. The only defense for that kind of switch lies in some kind of factual basis, which I’ve never seen evidence of.
All good points, Dave. On the ones I can understand, I agree with you 100%. It’s just disappointing to hear these things thrown out daily on broadcasts and in print as gospel truth.
If it’s true, though, almost anyone would hit better behind Ichiro, supposedly seeing a steady diet of fastballs.
I’m under the impression that not only is there no evidence that lineup position has any effect on hitting, there’s also scant evidence, at best, that hitting in front of or behind specific players has any effect on hitting.
If we study a couple hundred players and are able to determine that there is no evidence of a change in performance due to line-up position, we can safely assume that Beltre is likely affected in a similar way to the large sample of players we studied and is not an historical anomoly.
I don’t think this study would really answer the question though. It’s not a question of whether Beltre would benefit from a general lineup switch but rather a question of how the pitch sequence changes when batting behind a high OBP base-stealer. For that, you would need to look at variability in pitch sequence for batters hitting behind a specific set of players – Ichiro, Ricky Henderson etc – when they are on 1st with an open base in front of them. The question isn’t whether or not Beltre is special but whether Ichiro is special.
slipped by Dave.
Also, I remember that research showed that hitting went way down during any steal attempts (successful or unsuccessful), which tends to suggest that it would be hard for any supposed pitch-selection benefit to make anyone hit better in the spot after Ichiro.
#71: you are implying that teams do not have a high OBP base stealer as their lead off hitter. As lead off hitters go, Ichiro isn’t even particularly high in OBP.
#74 – his OBP is better than most of the rest of the squad, no? I just thought it would be an interesting study to see how pitching approaches change when 1st is occupied by a class of players (Ichiro, Ricky Henderson, Vince Coleman etc).
Visually, it sure looks like at least a couple of things change:
*cadence/delivery time to home plate (including throws over to 1st)
*pitching from the stretch/slide steps
*alterations to pitch selection/sequence/location (including pitchouts)
Isn’t it reasonable to think that these changes would impact the productivity of the hitters behind them? Of course the hitters are changing approaches too (bunting, taking extra pitches and all) so it would strike me as being pretty hard to make much sense of it.
Whatever is reasonable to think, if these changes had an impact it should be measurable beyond small sample sizes.
(That comment reads more abruptly than I meant it to. I agree that the suppositions are reasonable, just as the idea of protection is reasonable. It’s just difficult to find any data that support it.)
Scraps – I guess I’m arguing that there may be some generalized exceptions to the rule that the protection effect is negligible.
#1 – Assume that by-the-book rules of baseball suggest #2 hitters should reduce their effectiveness by bunting, hitting behind the runner, taking extra pitches etc. This offsets the dimininshed effectiveness of the pitcher & makes the broad statistical survey appear that any effect is within margin of error + or –
#2 – Assume that there are some players who are unable/unwilling to change their approach OR are actively instructed not to change their approach. Baseball managers (my opinion) as a rule appear less likely to buck tradition than coaches in other professions, so this scenario doesn’t happen much.
If #1 and #2 are correct, then if you really wanted to find the effect, you would have to look for both the right kind of 1st hitter and the right kind of 2nd hitter, right? I’m not going to get into the argument about whether Beltre is that kind of exception, except that he doesn’t strike me as the prototype #2 hitter.
#75: In naming 3 players who are in a certain class, Ichiro, Rickey and Coleman, you named 3 players who are pretty much completely unlike each other except that they were fast. (Rickey had quite a bit of power and walked a ton, Coleman was an out machine, Ichiro has very limited power and although he rarely walks he has a much higher BA than Coleman did. Thank gawd.)
The point Dave was making was that this topic has been studied lots of times by lots of people. Unless you are talking about Barry Bonds, there isn’t such a thing as a protection effect. If hitters who hit behind a #1 hitter with speed would get better, it would have shown up.
The point I was making is that Ichiro is not that much different in either OB or in SB than a typical leadoff hitter. So thinking that he is some sort of extreme case is misguided.
If you want to do a detailed study on Beltre, knock yourself out.
Paul –
I took a quick glance at the #1 and #2 hitters yesterday & their stats from the most recent full season. If I did the math right, Ichiro stole 65% more bases than the average other #1 hitters did last year. Beltre – not accounting for park effects, had an 11% higher slug % & a 38% higher k/pa rate than the average of the other #2s.
So, Ichiro is more likely than average to cause a change in pitching repertoire while Beltre is an unusually aggressive #2 hitter who derives a somewhat higher percentage of his value from his aggressiveness & may not adjust his approach based on his position in the batting order.
I just thought it was interesting – feel free to punch holes in it.
note from Ken Rosenthal today:
“Every season, scouts are puzzled when certain players fail to crack Opening Day rosters. Outfielder Jack Cust, 28, and catcher Ben Davis, 30, are examples of borderline major leaguers who probably could help clubs in the right situations.
Davis, released by the Yankees at the end of spring training, is a catch-and-throw specialist who is superior to several current major-league backups, scouts say.
He might have been a better choice for the Orioles than Alberto Castillo, who allowed five stolen bases against the Twins on Tuesday night, in part due to right-hander Daniel Cabrera’s slow move to the plate.”
Rickey was probably easily the slowest of those guys. He didn’t steal all those bases because he was fast.
Which would explain in part (along with his incredible conditioning) why he was still able to steal bases into his 40’s, despite obviously having diminished physically.
Rickey would give long intervies about how he was never even the fastest guy on his team. Or how much easier it was to steal third base because it only took 7 strides rather than the 11 it took to steal second. Rickey gave stealing bases a lot of thought.
Didn’t he also refer to himself in the 3rd person or am I confusing him with someone else?
He did, but that has been way, way overblown.
Evan, Rickey was maybe not the fastest but he was fast. He didn’t steal all those bases because he was slow. If he were slow to start he wouldn’t have still been stealing bases nearly at will into his late 30’s. I admit to loving the A’s when Henderson was there, because the team was solidly built with alot of personality. Even then I rooted for the M’s too, but what was here to root for in the late 80’s. I know that though being Nolan Ryan’s 5000th strikeout he never stole a base from Ryan. This is a player that I studied while/after growing up, alot. Rickey started out fast. How do you steal 130 bases in a season just on know-how and *grit*? It would have been repeated if it were simply the know-how. I Know Griffey’s number was Rickey’s number and Rickey didn’t want to take it away from the kid, refusing 2 contract offers from the Mariners for that reason. A young Alex Rodriguez asked Griffey to get him a meeting to ask questions about stealing bases and talk baseball with Rickey. They talked in person and over the phone several times that year. A-Rod’s steals went down dramatically the next 4 seasons. If it was just know-how (I admit, not a quote) why didn’t Alex implement that newly learned knowledge?
I didn’t phrase that right :*Griffey picked the number of his childhood idol, Rickey Henderson*
Rotoworld picked this up:
Francisco Rodriguez was photographed with what appeared to be a foreign substance under the bill of his cap following his first save of the season on Monday.
K-Rod was seen rubbing his thumb in the area following several pitches. Derek Zumsteg, a former Baseball Prospectus writer who wrote about Monday’s incident in his blog, says the Rangers noticed the apparent cheating and complained to the commissioner’s office. We’ll have to wait and see if anything comes of this.
Source: Zumsteg.net
So DMZ…how much did u pay K-Rod to have him ‘cheat’ so you could get a write up or 2? 😉 Perfect timing!
Please never write a title The M’s can stop playing now
They just might read it!
It appears The Cheaters guild to baseball blog has given MLB reason to investigate Francisco Rodriguez performance the other night!
WTG!
Saw you referenced on cbssportsline.com as well, DMZ:
Just finished the book, loved it. I hope you save enough material for a sequel!