A brief statistical comment
DMZ · April 15, 2007 at 6:26 pm · Filed Under Mariners
(Sorry I’m largely absent, I’m still in pretty bad shape)
Jose Vidro, through 8 games: .212/.257/.394
Carl Everett 2006: .227/.297/.360
He’s over 10% to the point Everett got tossed overboard.
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Jose Vidro, through 8 games: .212/.257/.394
Carl Everett 2006: .227/.297/.360
Chris Snelling 2007: .263/.440/.474
some other DH’s numbers
Mike Piazza OAK .300/.340/.460
Jim Thome CHW .273/.442/.515
David Ortiz BOS .263/.364/.579
Travis Hafner CLE .233/.351/.367
Frank Thomas TOR .190/.306/.262
Mike Sweeney KAN .172/.242/.172
I hate the front office as much as ANYONE here.. However, I think with regards to Vidro we still need to give it a little more time. Comparing his numbers through 8 games is just stupid. Besides, the front office has given us PLENTY of reasons to hate them over the last 5 years – so we don’t need to start presuming reasons.
Using this information, I can conclude that Mike Sweeney is the worst hitter in Major League Baseball and Chris Snelling will out-slug Travis Hafner, Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza this year..
I suppose we should look at the first set of at-bats by Vidro on the basis of pitchers faced. Though he is an extreme groundballer, perhaps the pitcher’s tendencies also factored into his performance…
One additional note: those 2 HR were Vidro’s first and second extra base hits of the year. That seems terribly fluky, that his only XBH went for HR. Small sample size and all that, but I still wouldn’t be surprised to see his SLG, bad as it already is, actually regress from here, as he returns to his slap single hitting ways.
Yes, it’s small sample size theatre… but it isn’t encouraging that Vidro’s fimnly put himself in the McCracken/Colbrunn/Cirillo/Aurilia/Spiezio/Everett/Perez line of players on the wrong side of 30 who flop miserably as Mariners, and that the M’s inexplicably acquire at significant cost.
He hasn’t had enough time to do anything firmly yet. I don’t expect him to be a world beater, and the move was bad, and will get worse over time.
This year though, I don’t think he is going to be terrible.
The one positive thing I will say is that if the majority of our hitters are hitting below their career average so far this year and other than the King we have not had any spectacular pitching performances and we are still 5 – 3. If Vidro / the rest of the team minus Kenji can just slightly pick up ther performance we might be looking at a good chance to contend.
This year though, I don’t think he is going to be terrible.
Here, it’s chart time:
Player year before coming to M’s and then time as M
(Not using Cirillo because Coors screws up his stats- but even road stats there’s a serious dropoff)
Aurilia: .277/.325/.410 .241/.304/.337
Spiezio: .265/.326/.453 .215/.288/.346
Everett: .251/.311/.435 .227/.297/.360
Vidro: .289/.348/.395 ???/???/???
At some point, you’d hope the team would notice that gosh, importing mediocre and aging hitters into the best pitcher’s park in the AL doesn’t work so well.
The other thing is that in Aurilia, Cirillo and Spiezio’s case, they looked considerably better once they left Safeco.
Cirillo and Aurilia have looked better in large part due to park effects and, in Cirillo’s case, platooning. Cirillo was the same lousy hitter in San Diego and has been useless against RHP since leaving Seattle.
Fair enough, but it doesn’t excuse the Mariners giving old players in their decline phase duties that FAR exceed their abilities.
Its pretty easy to take the 4 moves that have worked out the worst for the Mariners and then say “Look they are dumb, this won’t work out either!”
I’m not defending the Vidro move, I think it will blow up in our faces before his contract is up. I do think he hasn’t had enough time yet to prove to us that he will be a total failure this year.
I think he will be a roughly league avg hitter this year, and below average for a DH (Which is unacceptable considering other alternatives and cost). I do not expect he will be the failure that Cirillo, Aurillia, Spiezio, or Everett were. At least not this year.
Fruto is nothing special
Fruto might be the best pitcher in the Nationals organisation.
Though that says more about the Nationals than it does about Fruto.
There’s a relevant bit in the P.I. about Vidro’s sudden change in fortunes:
If Vidro keeps listening to Pentland, it could be good for all involved!
I do not expect he will be the failure that Cirillo, Aurillia, Spiezio, or Everett were.
Right, but did you expect those 4 guys to turn into complete piles of poo once they put on an M’s uniform? What’s different about Vidro that means he won’t have this happen to him?
I don’t think it’s impossible that Vidro could be “OK” (in the sense you express), but the guy is a lead weight on the basepaths comparable to Edgar and Ole at their slowest, without being anywhere near their class as a hitter (and note that Edgar and Ole’s last seasons as M’s were not exactly awesome, either). These aren’t good signs.
It’s quite possible the M’s may have bought another decline/collapse phase of a veteran hitter, yet again. That’s all I’m saying.
Oh, not at all, especially when it appears that the front office understands the mistake yet cannot stop itself from repeating it. I just wanted to avoid perpetuating the myth that Aurilia and Cirillo significantly improved after leaving Seattle when for the most part there were external factors masking the same flaws they showed here.
Ah, I remember the stories from when Cirillo would work with the hitting coach, and they thought they’d solved his problems… those were the days.
Yeah, just like the stories from when Bad Norm Charlton said he was tipping his pitches (which always preceded the Charlton needs surgery stories).
Yeah, the “pitching coach” farie dust is a wonderful explanation, until it isn’t.
Personally, I’m starting to think that the Mariners have a secret agreement with the MLPA — in the same way they go along with the Commish on not busting draft “slots,” they also are going along with the Players Association to provide a sort of “pre-retirement” home for former hitters: a half-way house on the way out of pro ball, where these creaky veterans can still put on their uniforms and pretend they’re still effective players. Kind of like those civil war re-enactments (including firing blanks). It’s just unfortunate there’s an actual game going on around them that counts in the standings.
I’m not sure what help Pentland is going to be – Vidro already does a fine job grounding out to second base.
At the very least getting some input on what he is doing wrong and working on it is a good sign.
I love it when small sample size is used to show Vidro sucks. But, isn’t his BABIP like .185 right now? So how would his numbers look if his BABIP was in line and what should we expect it to look like when he regresses to the mean?
That BABIP should improve, Bilbo. The problem is that it won’t improve much if he actually intends to keep scooting grounders to 2B/SS. He’s too slow to beat out anything in the infield, and the grass here doesn’t exactly give his grounders the giddy-up that they may have gained during his heydey in Olympic Stadium. It’s a recipe for disaster.
Even if he does hit, say, .300 with minimal power and a lot of GIDP, will that be good out of a DH / batting 3rd combo?
I’m rooting for him to do well as much as anyone is. If he does well I’ll be happy for him and the team. I just don’t see it coming.
Even if he does hit, say, .300 with minimal power and a lot of GIDP, will that be good out of a DH / batting 3rd combo?
I’m more than a bit skeptical that an extremely slow DH with groundball tendencies and no particular history of any power, who also hits in a tough ballpark is going to hit .300. I’ll think he will be doing well if he gets to .270/.330/.400 with 20 GIDP over a full season, which would be as bad in it’s own way as Everett was for us in 2006 (the small bump in OBP and SLG getting negated by the increased GIDP).
At this point, my guess is unless Vidro is showing me to be off base and he’s hitting like it’s 2000-2001 again, he gets replaced in the starting lineup by the All-Star break, whether it’s by Broussard or calling up Jones, or whatever.
Not for nothing but there are a couple-three game worn Ms’ Doyle jerseys for sale at the Safeco team store. Around $200 per. For those with serious man-crushes.
I think any comparison between Vidro and Everett has to include Doyle, as he was the logical DH for this next year. I’m not sure though that even the Nats are really going to give the kid a chance so that we could see over the larger sample size what he could really do (like, you know, if he stayed healthy over the course of an entire ML season, and got playing time and all).
Hope you’re right. But this front office just hates to admit its mistakes. I see them giving him at least a year’s worth of rope. They seem to be more concerned about saving face than making the smart move…even when that face has egg all over it.
The rope, though belongs to Bavasi and Hargrove. Who can blame Vidro for signing a long-term contract when someone waves money in his face?
If Small Sample Size Theatre is the prevailing norm, Snelling’s 0-4 tonight makes the comparison:
Snelling — .217 .379 .391
Vidro — .212 .257 .394
/Not saying anything. Just reporting.
Those 120 points of OBP are worth a ton.
I remember when Cirillo would say he could only ever succeed in Safeco if he put on 25 lb. of muscle (ie. steroids).
76: just for fun, .379 is more helpful than .257
What’s helpful about not making an out over 47% more often? Well, it’s probably 50%+ considering DPs. Anyway.