One More Link
Well, apparently, Geoff Baker wasn’t happy about being upstaged by Ted Miller and Larry Stone this morning. So, he blew them away with his latest blog entry.
It’s 2,212 words of analytical goodness – a rational, even-handed evaluation of how the current roster and the team’s record should alter our opinion of the team’s general manager. I was thinking about writing something about what the first half says about Bill Bavasi, but you know what, why bother? Geoff just hit a home run, even if I don’t agree with everything he wrote. Go read his take instead. It’s worth your time.
At some point, we’re going to get tired of pointing out just how amazing the transformation has been from the last Seattle Times beat writer to the current one. I’m not there yet, though. Felix mixing his pitches has taken its place at the top of the list of Best Things To Happen To Mariner Fans in 2007, but Geoff Baker is a clear #2.
Ichiro can age well but you can’t say that he won’t decline.
He is having his best year in an M’s uni. When he hits .320 next year and you all bitch about how outragous his contract is I’ll be sitting here laughing at you for defending it.
Do we need Ichiro? YES! But not for 20 mil when we were saying that this is only a .500 team.
Think of this team as the Sonics a few years ago when they made the playoffs. They resigned everyone and failed miserably for the next two years. Our beloved M’s could be facing that realization soon because they are really not as good as their record suggests.
Its not like we have to worry about Ichiro’s power diminishing…
#51 – I’d love for you to tell me some FA we could sign otherwise with that 20 mil a year that would be a bigger improvement than the difference between Ichiro in CF and almost anyone else.
The Mariners can afford to overpay Ichiro. And J from Issay, I guarantee you I will never bitch about this contract. Who knows how it will work out over time; but Ichiro could explode tomorrow and I’d still be happy the Mariners made the deal.
I would have to psychic to tell you any FA we could sign with that 20 mil over the 5 yr contract.
Also that 20 mil. can be spread over many little signings not just one big signing. So I won’t indulge you with a real answer.
I hear what you are saying. The price, and the terms are just being speculated on at this point. I would like it better if it was slanted more towards 15.
I feel the main reason the M’s overpayed is because there is no viable option for a leadoff hitter in the upper system. Really, if Ichiro walked who would replace him? AJ is in center but who hits leadoff?
The M’s were being held over a barrel and would get a lot of backlash from the fans if they traded him or just let him walk. They did the right thing, but went a little overboard.
Hey, bottomline, this is the first all star since Buhner, and Martinez who decided he wanted to retire in Seattle. Ichiro is a legit Hall of Fame candidate too. The Mariners went out an protected the trademark today.
Losing Griffey, Rodriguez, and Johnson hurt becaue by the way they are still active to this day and are competitive. Maybe today we stopped doing that.
For a quantitative-oriented blog such as this, this is kinda a foolish statement.
If he declines by 3-5% over five years, then, yes, you’re right; he’s declined. But that kind of decline is irrelevant to the contract being discussed.
All I’m getting out of you is that it’s a foolish signing because….
Let’s have some more precise projections. Decline by 10%? 20% And how likely is this decline to be? INDULGE us by being more specific about why this is bad and give us a REAL answer on why this is foolish.
I would like to retire in Seattle too if I got more than anyone else was willing to pay.
I know it has been discussed, I’m just too lazy (hot) to do the actual research, but didn’t Randy leave because we weren’t willing to pay him.
If that is the case, then we could have low balled Ichiro, let him walk, and grouped him with the rest.
#55 – There are not any pieces we can add that will improve us (at least in the FA market) by spreading out 20 million. If you don’t recall, a mediocre pitcher like Washburn alone costs 12-14 mil per year.
If you’d like to make the argument that 20 mil towards minor league development would be a bigger improvement than keeping Ichiro, I’d be willing to take on that point.
But the argument that 20 million could be spent better on other players just won’t work.
#60, Randy left because he was unhappy with our upper management, and partly because we weren’t willing to pay so much. (I could be wrong on this)
Its one thing to spend X amount of money on one of the lowest-risk-tier types of hitters than it is to spend X amount on an aging 6’10 pitcher.
You can’t quantify how much someone will decline until it has actually happened.
Use the average decline rate of ALL baseball players and apply that to Ichiro. Or you could take players that have similar skill sets and take their decline rate and use that to get a better guess because all we can do is guess.
That is as good as anyone can do unless you can see into the future.
#61
Minor league development and international signings may be curtailed because of this signing.
This signing may impact keeping a quality young player beacause we don’t have the payroll flexibility to give him an extention.
I don’t know I’m just speculating and giving an opinion just like the rest of you.
J –
“Use the average decline rate of ALL baseball players and apply that to Ichiro. Or you could take players that have similar skill sets and take their decline rate and use that to get a better guess because all we can do is guess”
Which is exactly what Dave and others have done, which tells us that Ichiro is not only less likely to decrease than other players, but that he will do it at a slower pace.
>>>>>
And I understand your point on the minor league development, lets just hope that that does not become the case.
J, I think I’d want a little better than that.
You COULD do better than what you’re talking about, usually, by using PECOTA. Except that Ichiro is one of those rare outliers, who’s been pretty much outperforming what PECOTA projects for him.
Yeah, the numbers make you nervous, but I’m not so sure that his numbers are going to drop off that abruptly and that soon (and certainly the mental part of the game, the routes he takes in CF and the strategy he applies in batting won’t be decaying with age; and I’m thinking that his bat control is fairly age resistant…)
really?
I think many of you have missed my point. I am not saying we should NOT have signed Ichiro. I am saying we signed him for TOO MUCH.
The impact of this signing could affect other areas of this organization (as mentioned above plus others not mentioned.)
Ichiro will decline as ALL players do. It is impossible to say by how much player X will decline because all players are unique. But if stays on par with his averages then great, we got a player who is different than every other player throughout history.
Considering that Ichiro was underpaid (relatively speaking) for his first seven seasons here, $20m per doesn’t seem that outrageous. Using my crystal ball, I’m predicting that Ichiro will remain at his current level of productivity for three more seasons. He’ll then have two more good, not great years, and retire with around 2,600 hits and 1,300 runs. He’ll the become the first Japanese player enshrined in Cooperstown, having played all twelve major league seasons for the same club.
The above should read “He’ll then become…”.
Ahhh, let the business guys worry about the money. It looks like we get to enjoy one of the best and possibly the most exciting player in baseball for many years to come. I am absolutely grinning from ear to ear. And the better news is…he is on a mission. I think we will see him turn it up a notch (if there is a notch left to turn up to) in the second half as the M’s charge toward the playoffs. Exciting baseball has, at last, returned to Seattle.
I can’t see defending the Vidro/Snelling or Ramirez/Soriano trade. I can see picking up someone that looks like they had potential to get back in form (Guillen, Sexson, Ordonez) after surgery; or picking someone up after a career year (Beltre) because you have to take a risk. I can justify those, and realize that it’s a gamble that could turn against you.
Vidro and Ramirez though? I really see those as “laying your own minefieldâ€. Especially the Ramirez (bad and fragile NL pitcher), when having kept Soriano could have allowed Morrow to go to the minors. You’re looking at guys that are either declining or never were, and are frequently injured.
Hind site is 20/20 though…
#31 I seem to remember there was a lot of hand-wringing about Baker on this very blog when he was hired.
Actually, the first post on Baker here was optimistic, including this line:
I’m happy to hear it’s Baker, though, as he’s written pieces critical of the local team, and Finnigan…
And the posts following that had their share of praise too.
Are we kissing Geoff’s ass every time he writes something now because he mentions USSM?
Well, the smartass answer is that it wouldn’t be a problem if they spent their money better on other parts of the lineup, it wouldn’t be a problem….
On the other hand, there is certain amount of value of being able to pack as much run-scoring/run-stopping ability as Ichiro offers into one position. The traditional way has been to focus on the offensive end…but combining defense and offense will do it as well.
As the blog authors point out, nothing matches the value of pre-arb players who perform. You’re not going to match the bang you get for your buck there. But when you look at the context of free agents and of your own players about to be free agents, I think the equation changes (for free agents, it averages out to be $4.4 million a win, and probably will increase in years to come). The question you may want to ask is if Ichiro will continue to give you 5-6 wins above average for the life of the contract….
I know this is off the track but Ichiro just hit an inside the park home run with one on.
AL 2 – NL 1. MVP??