Just for fun
I don’t have time for an in depth post today (yes, the Future Forty update is coming, as is the long promised second half of the projecting players post), so, in lieu of something long, here’s a quick look at the post trade-deadline performances of some of the notable names who were talked about as possible Mariner acquisitions. Keep in mind that these performances don’t validate an opinion one way or another – a months worth of statistics isn’t any kind of real sample that proves anything. This is more just for fun. Try not to take it too seriously, and don’t send Geoff Baker any more mocking emails about Eric Gagne.
Dave’s Guys
Jose Contreras: 34 IP, 34 H, 11 BB, 27 K, 2 HR, 3.21 ERA
David Wells: 10 IP, 13 H, 4 BB, 5 K, 0 HR, 4.50 ERA
J.P. Howell: 38 IP, 36 H, 8 BB, 51 K, 6 HR, 3.76 ERA (Triple-A numbers)
Not Dave’s Guys
Eric Gagne: 10 IP, 18 H, 4 BB, 13 K, 1 HR, 9.00 ERA
Al Reyes: 12 IP, 14 H, 3 BB, 18 K, 2 HR, 4.63 ERA
Dan Wheeler: 14 IP, 13 H, 6 BB, 13 K, 1 HR, 4.61 ERA
Octavio Dotel: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR, 8.31 ERA (on the DL since August 7th)
Matt Morris: 37 IP, 43 H, 16 BB, 18 K, 3 HR, 4.66 ERA
Mark Loretta: 105 PA, .224/.269/.276, 4 XBH
Again, I want to stress that these numbers, in and of themselves, don’t mean anything. The sample sizes are ridiculously small, and judging a past decision based on what happens after it was made is a great way to come to wrong conclusions.
However, if you look at the basic distinction between the two camps, there’s a basic philosophical divide – the Mariners pursued players who were performing well at the time of the deadline, while I preferred players whose performances were bad enough to get them bounced from their team’s rotations and were, in my opinion, undervalued. That Jose Contreras was awful in June and July didn’t mean he was going to continue to be awful in August and September, as long as the underlying skills that had made him a good pitcher in the past were still mostly present.
But then, most of you have already heard this before. So why am I posting this today?
Because the Mariners, during their nine game losing streak, were much like the June and July version of Jose Contreras – previously successful, flawed but still with some talent, yet currently getting the tar beaten out of them. Just like we shouldn’t have assumed that Jose Contreras was done as a major league pitcher, we shouldn’t assume the M’s are dead and buried – don’t let recent poor performance hide the fact that there’s still talent on this team, and the fact that they got beaten like they stole something last week does not mean they’re doomed to struggle the rest of the way.
I’m not saying the Mariners are going to win the wild card. I’m saying they have a chance, and if you jumped off the bandwagon during the past week and a half, we’ll let you climb back on – we shouldn’t be ready to give up on this team just yet.
[..]
jumping off the bandwagon after a 9 game losing streak isn’t so bad…there were people on the comment threads jumping off after seeing a groundout w/ RISP.
But, Dave, can we send Baker mocking emails about Al Reyes? My favorite was his post saying that Rick White had PROVED (yeah, he put it in capital letters) that he could work in high pressure situations after White managed to fare well in an inning and two thirds. He’s a fine reporter, but a lousy analyst.
I actually take full responsibility for the Mariners losses. I had watched just about every single game prior to this losing streak and then I was without my computer and thus mlb.tv until yesterday. Apparently they only lose when I’m not watching. Sorry guys, I’ll get on it.
Wow. Howell’s numbers are quite a bit better than I’d realized. His strike outs and ground ball percentages are pretty impressive and his BABIP is absolutely absurd. His walks per nine are high, but of course that number is padded by the extra hits he was giving up and all the extra batters he was facing.
So two questions:
What major league pitchers would you compare Howell to skills-wise?
What do you think we would have to give up to get him? I know the Mariners aren’t going to make a move for him, but just out of curiousity, what would he cost?
Happy HoRam Road Day! Uhh, I got to go throw up.
Good read for the morning Dave.
Nice morning post Dave.
What advantages do the M’s have over the Yankees and Tigers that will help them in the next month?
Would it make sense to go with 4 pitchers down the stretch?
Projecting out the current rotation on normal pitchers rest, and factoring a 6th starter for the double header against Cleveland, right now on the final day of the year it would King Felix against Texas, hopefully we’re in a position that a win takes us to the playoffs, cause there is no one rather than Felix I’d rather have on the mound with our playoff hopes on the line. Of course the downside is he won’t be pitching in the 4-game Angels series.
Obviously, no one on the M’s roster rather than Felix.
Of course, you don’t save your pitcher for the last game. “The Book” says you save your best for last. I would prefer giving my best pitcher as many starts as possible and dealing with the last game when you get to it. Somebody said something about not saving a pitcher because you don’t know what will happen tomorrow. It’s a familiar quote that many USSM posters know; I can’t recall it now.
Is it jumping off the bandwagon if you feel like there’s no hope, yet still watch every single game and cheer/throw things at the tv?
I guess my worry is that the M’s really are the 67-69 team their third order win percentage suggests, and the Yankees are a 79-59 team.
I guess my worry is that the M’s really are the 67-69 team their third order win percentage suggests, and the Yankees are a 79-59 team.
Even if this is true – and I suspect the truth is closer to the middle, where the M’s are more like a .520 team and the Yankees are more like a .580 team – there are only 26 game left for the Mariners this year (24 for the Yankees).
Even if you believe the true talent level difference between NY and Seattle is significant (.520 vs .580 is certainly significant), over the course of such a small sample, the favorite is far less certain to win out.
The Yankees are definitely the better team, but over any given 25 game sample, there are a lot of influences that factor into record that don’t have to do with who is actually better.
If I didn’t jump off the bandwagon after 2004-2006, a piddly little nine game losing streak isn’t going to make me. I still believe. Go M’s!
Please HoRam, have the best start of your miserable life tonight.
according to Bill Madden the M’s wil have gone nearly 5,000 miles traveling to four cities in 10 days…
I don’t think anybody predicted a nine game losing streak, but anyone looking at the schedule knew that this was going to be a really tough stretch. I know the Mariners travel in style, but going Seattle/Minnesota/Texas/Seattle/Cleveland/Toronto/New York/Detroit/Seattle over a 2-1/2 week stretch is crazy-hard.
If they can get back home within 2 games of the wildcard, they’ll be in great shape.
8 (awolfgang) – Agreed. However, if the M’s don’t move Felix up for the Angels series, there is a problem. They absolutely cannot afford to make that mistake. Every loss moving forward is critical.
I’d feel a lot more comfortable with HoRam (if he has to stay in the rotation) pitching at home against Cleveland, and Felix going against the Angels. There is an off day on Thursday to make this happen. Felix is young enough, and well past his arm troubles earlier this year, that this should not be that big of a deal.
I’m back on the bandwagon, after jumping off early in the losing streak. I couldn’t bear it any longer when at Safeco McLaren put in Rick White in the high elverage situation, instead of Putz. (Tues Aug 28, 8th inning bases loaded against the Angels.) And of course watching repeeated failures at the plate by Sexson. Now that Broussard is getting regular plyaing time, and the losing streak ended, I’m back on.
according to Bill Madden the M’s wil have gone nearly 5,000 miles traveling to four cities in 10 days…
I know this is a tough stretch of travel but I really think the effect of these flights is overblown. Let’s look at what this really is:
Sunday, August 19 Seattle-Minneapolis after a day game (about a 3 hour flight)
3 games at Twins then fly to Texas after a day game (about 2 1/2 hours in the air).
4 games at Texas then fly to Seattle after a day game (about 3 hours 45 minutes in the air).
3 home games with Anaheim then fly to Cleveland after a day game (about 4 hours in the air)
1 game at Cleveland then fly to Toronto (1 hour flight)
3 games at Toronto then fly to NY (1 1/2 hour flight)
3 games at NY then off day flight to Detroit (2 hours)
3 games at Detroit then fly to Seattle after day game (4 hours)
7 game home stand
There really aren’t that many days in that 3 week stretch where they are justifiably sleep deprived due to traveling. Don’t forget they’re flying on an all-first-class charter plane.
The problem, to me, isn’t so much the flights it’s the fact that McLaren ran the starters into the ground during the early part of the road trip, when they were still winning. He said going to Minnesota that, with the travel, the hard surface in Minnesota and the heat in Texas, he was going to rest starters. But what does he do? He plays the starters day after day after day in Minnesota and Texas. When he finally rests some starters it’s the young guys — Betancourt and Lopez — and the best conditioned guy on the team — Ichiro — who get rested.
The older players, the guys with injury histories, and the guys who have been streaky this year (Ibanez, Sexson, Vidro and Guillen) play every damn day in Minnesota and Texas.
That combined with truly awful bullpen management is why I blame McLaren — not travel — for the losing streak.
and FWIW, Madden says it is not the Ms complaining– he is just amazed at the MLB scheduling.
Indeed so. Leaving aside any adjustment for strength of schedule, a quick simulation gives the chance of the .52 team having a larger win total over 25 games than the 0.58 team of 28%.
Details for the statistical-oriented among you:
Let M (Mariners) be distributed according to a Binomial(N=25,p=0.52)
Let Y (Yankees) be distributed according to a Binomial(N=25,p=0.58)
Generate 10000 copies of M and Y, and compute the proportion of times that M > Y. I get P(M > Y) = 0.278, approximately
Is there any way to check whether a team with three separate losing streaks of this length has ever made the playoffs? I’m not asking someone to do the work, if it’s possible but a great big pain in the ass.
Have you guys seen the money line on today’s game?
Mariners (Seattle) +215
Yankees (New York) -250
Yikes… I guess the odds-makers know quite a bit about HoRam’s suckitude.
But if I was a betting man, I’d still put my money on the Yanks for today’s game.
Dave – with the expanded rosters, would someone like Rick White now be expendable?
Still on the bandwagon, but not the wagon.
#4 – ugh, keep it to yourself – the last thing we need
right now is the mojo of a UMich fan! I kid, I kid.
I will never be off the bandwagon of being an M’s fan, but
the 2007 vintage sure looked finished after Toronto. It would be fun to get the WC and I would love it, but the realist in me says that sure feels like a long shot right now.
I know the YES commentators yesterday mentioned that only 2 other teams this year have 4 losing streaks of at least 6 games like the Mariners do: the Rays and the Marlins.
Yeah, but there’s a difference between jumping off the bandwagon, and actually rooting for the team to tank the rest of the way, as I am, because an end of year resurgence will simply mean another year of this crap.
And sad to say (although becoming less sad with each White/Parrish acquisition), Bavasi must be fired, primarily because he won’t fire McLaren. A new GM would be way more likely to clean house, so if that’s what it takes, so be it.
26 – what makes you think the replacements would be better. Remember that every manager and GM since 1996 (when I started reading asbs-m) has been mocked by the fan base. While there are a few GMs who would be better (Beane being the obvious example), it’s a truism that few fans like their front office. Even the management team that gave Yankees fans four recent World Series titles gets attacked all the time on their forums.
I will never root for a team to tank in order for a change to happen, unless there was actual strong evidence that the results after the change would be significantly stronger than before the change.
If you are a life long fan and will never jump ship are you still on a bandwagon? Or you on the ship? Is there a term for this?
Dave, I would watch the comments, people will start to think you are a Mariners fan at some point.
To be fatalistic in assuming that we wouldn’t get better isn’t necessarily a reason to stick to the current group. I would point out that we have a recent example in a large Pacific NW aerospace company. It suffered through two awful CEOs and wisely waited until a good one became available. After the “promoting the internal good ol’ boys” strategy proved flawed they went outside and got one of the most highly rated (on all fronts) guys out there.
Really, after this year’s “hot seat” fiasco do you want to live through that again?
any one find out if Bavasi has been extended? and interesting that LL has the rumor that Mac is due to be replaced by the Big Splash name, while Geoff says he heard that Mac is safe because they feel they need continuity over anything else…
There is small sample size over at THT that shows Richie Sexson can’t hit strikes very well. He hits balls better since the Pitch F/X data was gathered. Who would have thought all this time we should have been telling him to swing at pitches outside the zone?
Some interesting Ichiro stuff in there also.
Squaring It Up is the name of the article, right near the top.
29 – I’m not being fatalistic as much as I’m thinking that the criticism of the FO is overblown, at least in terms of how it’s handcuffing us. I don’t think we have the best front office by any means, but I also don’t think it’s so bad that I’d rather see them get fired than a trip to the playoffs.
That’s true, but a good GM can do amazing things for fan morale. Just look at the Sonics: they’ve been completely gutted roster-wise, and will almost certainly be awful next season, but most of the bloggers I’ve read are really excited about the 07-08 season. Not just because of KD, but because they believe the front office made some great trades and acquisitions, and the team is headed in the right direction.
Just look at the Sonics
most of the bloggers I’ve read are
really excited about the 07-08 season.
Are all these excited bloggers from Oklahoma? Uhhhh. . . .
“That’s true, but a good GM can do amazing things for fan morale.”
Better than making the playoffs?
I’d rather be excited in October than be excited in February.
“Better than making the playoffs? I’d rather be excited in October than be excited in February.”
Um, yes, that’s true, but tangential to my point. And I don’t agree that 1) Change managers and surely lose, or 2) Stick with what we’ve got and have a chance to win are the only two options.
“Are all these excited bloggers from Oklahoma? Uhhhh. . . .”
Ha. Ha. Ha. No wonder the Sonics are leaving.
I’m not being fatalistic as much as I’m thinking that the criticism of the FO is overblown, at least in terms of how it’s handcuffing us. I don’t think we have the best front office by any means, but I also don’t think it’s so bad that I’d rather see them get fired than a trip to the playoffs.
My take is that if the Marlins can win TWO championships, and the D’Backs could win with Bob Brenly, you can win with some pretty big boat anchors holding you back. Dave’s point is that we’re taking a suboptimal path to a championship, not that it would be impossible to get one.
And yes, a drawback of success is that it will apparently validate Bavasi’s management philosophy. The problem is that we should be careful to think that we know it all, and in the end, success in terms of wins and losses on the field IS the outcome we want. It would be a rather perverse incentive to say “Well, yeah, you were successful, but it’s not the way we want it, here’s your walking papers”. I suspect canning Bavasi for a 90 win season and a playoff berth after having to preside through a rebuilding period wouldn’t exactly make people excited to come here- basically you’d be slagging his career and a good man for not winning the way YOU want, and that would be a problem for future GM’s- “gee, will they screw me over if I deliver results but not using the precise method they want”?
its not so much that i have “jumped” off the bandwagon… its more like Mac has been poking me with a sharp stick chanting “jump, we wont win,” as i desperately try to hold onto the wagon.
I still think we have a chance, but at this point its all up to the players, because they (the players) will not be getting managed like they should be.
-Ti
36 – the context in which I’ve been talking about the front office is as a counter-argument to wanting the M’s to lose so we’d get a better manager/GM. I’d rather make the playoffs and worry about management decisions in November.