Relievers Wearing Down
On August 2nd, Right-Handed Setup Guy #1 had a 2.24 ERA and was considered one of the key cogs in a bullpen that was keeping his team in a pennant race. The guy was a horse, having already pitched 56 innings during the first four months of the season and providing important shut down 8th innings to bridge the gap to the closer. In the 6 weeks since, he’s appeared in 15 games, put 23 guys on base in 12 2/3 innings and has posted a 10.66 ERA during the stretch run.
On August 2nd, Right-Handed Setup Guy #2 had a 2.59 ERA and was considered one of the key cogs in a bullpen that was keeping his team in a pennant race. The guy was a horse, having already pitched 58 innings during the first four months of the season and providing important shut down 8th innings to bridge the gap to the closer. In the 6 weeks since, he’s appeared in 18 games, put 36 guys on base in 19 innings and has posted a 6.63 ERA during the stretch run.
One of these guys is Scot Shields – one of the premier setup men in the league, a veteran with years of playoff experience, and a rock of the Angels bullpen. The other is Sean Green – a newcomer to the scene without any kind of major league track record. Can you tell which one is the grizzled veteran who has been through the wars and which one is the young guy who couldn’t handle the stress of a playoff race?
I didn’t think so. Here’s a hint – the guy allowing more than a run for every inning pitched? That’s the awesome reliable veteran.
I could repeat this exercise with a plethora of veteran relievers. Eric Gagne? Terrible since August. Dan Wheeler? Disastrously bad. Al Reyes? Total debacle.
So, local media types, please do us all a favor – stop talking about how the bullpen’s struggles since August are obviously the cause of inexperience wilting in a playoff race. You don’t know why Sean Green’s struggling any more than you know why any of those veterans are struggling. Relievers are inconsistent – even the best of them. Remember when Mariano Rivera posted a 10.57 ERA in April and everyone was ready to write off the Yankee closer again? Yea, that wasn’t right either.
Yes, the Mariners bullpen is young. And yes, the Mariner bullpen has struggled. But you don’t know that A is the cause of B, and there’s no evidence to show that an equally talented young pitcher is more likely to struggle during August and September than an equally talented veteran.
This whole veteran love affair is, by far, the most annoying storyline of the 2007 season. We already have to deal with the organization making bad decisions based on age – we don’t need media members using date of birth to give us bad analysis too.
Amen!
Scot Shields went to the same high school that i did for a year. Ft. Lauderdale high school!
Dave, do you think Green has worn down because he was overused over the first 2/3 of the season?
Coincidence or ….
Around August 2 there was a lot of noise about how our young & inexperienced bullpen needed reinforcement from a veteran righthanded setup guy. Enter Parrish. Explode Parrish. Exit Parrish. Enter White. Explode White. Exit White. Coincident with the explosions of the veterans was the implosion of the bullpen.
So we have a bunch of young no-names getting it done, but then being told by their bosses that they were not really good enough to do it in September. So come September, they didn’t.
I’ve coached young guys. This is not the way to raise performances. I believe that some of the blame, once again, falls on the front office.
Personally, they might be worn down because of overuse/pitching pattern in the last month.
That makes a lot more sense, I bet, than the veteran/rookie thing.
I don’t think we can even begin to know if Sean Green really has worn down. His struggles in August/September are almost totally the the result of a .432 batting average on balls in play, just like his July success was the result of a .167 batting average on balls in play. Obviously, neither number was a sign of his actual talent level – it’s one of those results that has far more to do with the hitter than the pitcher, and thus, is extremely inconsistent and gives us no real insight into anything.
I think making any kind of judgment based on the result of a batted ball in this kind of sample is foolishness.
The other thing is that, given the sample size, his ISO against really hasn’t changed much. .091 ISO before Aug. 2nd, and .131 ISO after Aug. 2nd. Almost the entire difference in his .253/.345/.344 pre-Aug-2nd performance and .382/.430/.513 post-Aug-2nd performance is singles. His strikeout rate is down somewhat, but his walk rate is down even more than that. It’s a slump that just screams out “fluke! fluke!”
Dave, what do you see Sean Green’s role as in the coming years? And will he perform up to it?
Since Morrow looks destined for the minors to work on starting, the M’s look to be a reliever down next year.
Do you think Green will/should be the 8th inning guy next year?
Could or should Huber/Mickolio/M. Lowe be in the mix?
Do you think a guy like Lindbrink would be a nice addition in FA to replace Morrow and help with the workload?
Quite obviously, the decline of our relievers is related to . . . football!
In August football teams start playing pre-season games and the sports page covers these. The relievers, seeking reaffirmation of their value to the team on the sports page finds football coverage where the awesome performance of the 7th inning guy used to be discussed. The relievers are thus left emotionally abandoned and doubting their role in things. They are discouraged and start tosiing meatballs over the plate — the resulting lost games cause even less fawning coverage of the relief corps — thus precipitaing a vicious self-reinforcing cyle of suckiness.
The only thing to do is to re
Dave-
I’m not sure if this is a stupid question or not, but…What should we expect for a batting average on balls in play for Sean Green, or any sinker ball pitcher.
It seems the feature that makes Sean Green useful (ie: create ground balls) is somewhat unpredictable. So even once Green reaches that holy level of “seasoned veteran” he will still have stretches where balls will find holes and stretches where he induces double play after double play. – but i guess that’s the point of this post.
oops . . hit submit by mistake
continued:
The only thing to do is to require the sports page editors to print fawning articles on the relief corps every day. Time to get with it guys.
coincidently, JJ just said it isn’t ‘inexperience’ among the kids, it is not having physically pitched that much before …
Yeah, you also hear about the brutal travel schedule and of course the added stress to the pen as a whole because of working so much long relief thanks to the sucky starters. I don’t know how much any or all of this contributes to “wearing down” and I don’t really know how worn down these guys actually are. What I hear are excuses, and I have no way of knowing how much validity they have. What I do know is that if the starters had gone 7 or 8 innings consistently, while giving up just a couple of runs, we wouldn’t be having this discussion at all.
RE: 9
I think it is reasonable to assume that both Mark Lowe and Mikolio find a spot in the bullpen next year. Not sure about Huber.
I highly doubt we bring in Linebrink or anyone like that.
Perhaps they can stretch out RRS or Morrow for the rotation next year…or maybe we get to see an entire year of Cha Seung Bak, where Seung loosley translates to “smoke and mirrors”
Dave I agree RPs are some of most Jeykell/Hyde pitchers in MLB.When a pitcher is even through as a RP he is complete done as a ballplayer i.e. Rick White.
However there are ways of limiting those up and down struggles from being a multi game situation and they are as follows:
1)Solid records as to innings pitched with pitch counts in each appearance used to indict the stressfulness of each outing.
2)A big factor and often is a good indictor of how strong or weaken your pen will be is the strenghth of your rotation.
Are the SPs in the 1,2, and 3 slots giving more quality starts of 7 + innings?
Are the SPs in the 4 and 5 slots going a minmum of 5 inning or more?
The answers to these two questions are the difference between a dependable pen over the stretch and a weak one.
The M’s present bullpen troubles over these last # of games can be traced to the overall ineffectiveness of Weaver and Ramirez along with strugggles of Washburn and Batista to a way lesser extent(these two troubles are more run support related).
At this point there is absolute no reason to continue to throw games into a black hole by staying with Weaver and Ramirez.
If you’re going to gamble that you can still overcome the odds you gamble give some of young SPs from AAA a shot at their (Weaver/Ramirez) starts.
They can’t do any worse and may just be a upgrade especially if the offense keeps doing what it’s been doing the last few games.
By doing this you get a better idea of what you got going into the offseason and the level of the talent inhouse.
16- Was asking b/c I’m still worried about Lowe’s injury. Probably can’t be depended on him. Mikolio, the the veteren fetish the M’s have, I’m skeptical he gets a spot.
Like the RRS to rotation idea. But again another hole in the bullpen which I see the M’s looking for in FA. The starters class is weak and dangerous except Koji Uehara. See dave’s previous post.
I don’t think Baek has a future with the M’s. They got Weaver last year b/c they didn’t trust him and Baek didn’t prove too capable or healthly this year when given the chance.
we don’t need media members using date of birth to give us bad analysis too.
Dave, I don’t understand why you refuse to accept that Capricorns and Aries make bad relievers. I think we need more Leo’s and Virgos in the bullpen.
Well, maybe not, but astrology would be as good a talent evaluation tool as the veteranosity the team has been using.
Since Morrow looks destined for the minors to work on starting, the M’s look to be a reliever down next year.
Do you think Green will/should be the 8th inning guy next year?
Could or should Huber/Mickolio/M. Lowe be in the mix?
Do you think a guy like Lindbrink would be a nice addition in FA to replace Morrow and help with the workload?
(Note: I’m not trying to sound snarky, but…) This should literally be the last problem the M’s worry about solving next year. If we have starters that go six, seven, and occasionally eight innings, Putz/Sherril/Green plus any three other guys would be just fine. If we have an offense that routinely puts five runs on the board by the ninth inning, we won’t need JJ saving a one-run game every time a starter has a decent outing. If we have hitters who see more than 1.0002 pitches per at bat, we’ll occasionally chase the other team’s starter early and get into their middle relief, and Huber vs Chris Bootcheck in a close game is a lot less concerning than Huber vs Lackey.
The team has lots of holes to fill. Morrow’s spot in the pen is one of the less worrisome ones.
#19 completly agree but that’s not going to be the M’s thinking. That spot will probably be the first they fill
RE: 18
I am pretty sure that Lowe will be fine come ST, as he will have all winter to build up arm strength and will be over a year removed from his second surgery in Feb.
Dave has mentioned before that if it wasn’t for Mickolio’s injury, he would have been in the pen before rosters expanded. Plus, the fact that nearly the entire bullpen is comprised of young pitchers disproves the M’s “veteran fetish”.
I know this is obvious, but: the thing about relieving is that by its very nature it’s going to make pitchers look bipolar. If a reliever gives up a run, he often gets pulled. So he has outings where he doesn’t let anybody score and looks great, and outings where he does and looks terrible. A starter might go 8 innings, giving up a run every other inning, and you’d say “he had an OK start” (well, that’s a 4.50 ERA, so not great, but he went 8 innings so presumably his teammates were batting more than that). But a reliever who has eight 1-inning outings, and in half of them he gets the outs he needs to get and in half of them he gives up a run (and maybe loses the game) and you say “wow, jekyll and hyde!”
“Plus, the fact that nearly the entire bullpen is comprised of young pitchers disproves the M’s “veteran fetishâ€.”
I think the fact that they have all those young arms will be the reason they will get a veteran out there. See the Rhodes signing or Dotel rumors at trade deadline as examples.
Dave, nice work. Most philosophical of you to have a question and answer it with facts and thinking. I wish we could say the same for the baseball ‘journalists’.
I agree, this season has been enormously trying with all this unsubstantiated bias for veteran efforts. I’m all for using the best player but let’s really use the best player.
don’t think Baek has a future with the M’s. They got Weaver last year b/c they didn’t trust him and Baek didn’t prove too capable or healthly this year when given the chance.
Although I will agree the M’s seem down on Baek, and will agree he didn’t proobe healthy, I disagree about the capable part. Here’s the xFIP for our starters this year:
Felix: 3.41
Baek: 4.52
Batista: 5.13
Weaver: 5.32
Wash: 5.35
HoRam: 5.42
F’bend: 5.81
It was only 11 starts, but he was far more effective in those 11 starts than anyone else not named Felix. Baek suffered from an extremely unlucky LOB% (58%). Realistically, he was our second best starter this year.
coincidently, JJ just said it isn’t ‘inexperience’ among the kids, it is not having physically pitched that much before
This may explain Morrow (well, that and the obvious command problems), but not so much Green. Green’s IP by year:
2004 77 IP
2005 73 IP
2006 54 IP (2 DL stints with minor injuries)
2007 77 IP
Green is pitching more this year than last, but he pitched about the same number of innings in the previous two years.
I am pretty sure that Lowe will be fine come ST
Lowe is essentially adrift in unchartered waters with his recovery (regenerative cartilage), so I don’t think anyone can be sure about Lowe’s health next spring.
Mac said earlier today that when he sees Rhodes or Reitsma walking around the clubhouse, he wonders where they’d be if those guys were healthy and pitching …
Plus, the fact that nearly the entire bullpen is comprised of young pitchers disproves the M’s “veteran fetishâ€.
Well, not really. Their persistent efforts to add a “veteran” arm to take the important setup role (cf. Reitsma, Chris; Parrish, John; White, Whisk-broom) indicates they were unhappy going with young pitchers in critical situations.
Not even CLOSE to sniffing the playoffs in August or September….
Appearances cause more wear and tear than innings pitched (warming up in the bullpen and all that), and Green’s surpassed his previous career high in games by 11, with still another 2+ weeks to go in the season. If he *is* wearing down – of which I’m still not convinced – that’d be why.
Many of the above posts since my last one at #17 just futher builds my case for the firing of Bill Bavasi as GM.
He is interfering and about as arrogant as they come while having done little if nothing to give him any right to be.
I’m futher saying before you go painting McLaren with the veteran only brush like so many here and in other blogs I post on.Let’s see what happens with a full season of Mac WITHOUT Bonehead Bavasi as GM and say a guy like Bob Engle(who was slated to get the job before Bavasi was suddenly hired)or Chris Antonetti (Assit.GM with the Indians) in the job.
Mac said earlier today that when he sees Rhodes or Reitsma walking around the clubhouse, he wonders where they’d be if those guys were healthy and pitching …
If Reitsma had been healthy while pitching, we might have won a few more games early in the season. Although I don’t think Reitsma was ever quite the reliever the M’s thought they were getting, he used to be a whole lot better than he was this year. Clearly, the elbow problem severely impacted his performance, but the M’s just didn’t want to accept that.
Likewise with Ibanez. His shoulder injury completely zapped his power for the first half of the season, but the M’s didn’t even try to get him some rest to heal up. Not even DHing him when throwing (and when would an outfielder ever have to throw?) caused significant pain.
Mac said earlier today that when he sees Rhodes or Reitsma walking around the clubhouse, he wonders where they’d be if those guys were healthy and pitching …
Yeah, Rhodes wasn’t done 3 years ago. However he is older and that counts for something.
31:
Bill Bavasi arrogant? Have you ever met the guy? He’s about the most down to earth, cool guy. I don’t agree with some of his methodologies in how he does things, but arrogant? Come on now.
Additionally, Bavasi has said numerous times that for the most part, he lets the managers do what they are hired to do: manage the team on a day to day basis. He’d probably call Mac in for a chat if he left Felix out for a 150 pitch game, but other than that, believing that Bill is running the day to day ops of the team is unsubstantiated at best.
The last paragraph is the understatement of the year.
I have no problem with the concept of the Reitsma and Rhodes signings. Reitsma was just the wrong guy. I actually liked the Rhodes deal at the time. He pitched well in 2005 (2.42 FIP) and okay in 2006 (3.33 FIP). Considering the minimum salary is almost $400,000, $1 million is not much. Sometimes, the guy gets hurt like Rhodes did, but sometimes you get 2001 Norm Charlton.
By the way, Jeff, good catch with the number of appearances.
If anything is wearing the relievers down, it’s Mac’s fetish for a) veterans who suck (see: HoRam, Parrish, Green), which means other relievers have to be used to put out fires and b) wanting RH-LH matchups strictly according to platoon, when, in fact, there’s really not much difference in, say Sherill’s performance vs. righties than Green’s.
Also, the rotation largely hasn’t done their job since late August (go deep into games). It’s thus not surprising that the bullpen is struggling.
And, of course, we HAD an extra RH “power arm” with some veteran experience… and traded it for magic beans, and signed a bunch of crappy veterans to replace the deficit. So really? I don’t buy that the bullpen is the problem here. They’ve done their job, just like Ichiro does- and they’ll have rough patches, just like Ichiro has months where he hits .260 and looks like a Japanese version of Omar Moreno (basically, useless offensively). It’s just unfortunate that the rough patch is hitting when everything else (offense, defense, starting pitching) is tanking.
30- That wouldn’t even include bullpen warm-ups without appearances, in which they never faced a batter. I’m sure that would add to any end-of-season-fatigue, but fatigue may not be the issue in his case.
Who knows. Do you think a pitcher would be able to tell you if he was fatigued, or is it more of an unconscious thing that the pitcher is unaware of?
#31 Bearman said, “I’m futher saying before you go painting McLaren with the veteran only brush like so many here and in other blogs I post on.”
Something just occurred to me.
McLaren is a rookie manager. The only “veteran-ness” he can claim is that of a bench coach.
I wish some representative of this blog, some other Mariners blog, or one of the print media reps would gently remind him of that…say, in one of those 5 minute radio spots or something? 🙂
huh? Bob Engle didn’t even interview for the job. They talked to Benny Looper, Al Avila, Omar Minaya, Mike Port, David Wilder, Lee Pelekoudas & Bavasi.
Has anyone, anywhere, EVER taken an empirical, factually-supported look at whether players in general, and pitchers in particular “wear down” over the course of a season?
I wonder how much of the “wearing down” process is physical, and how much of it is mental fatigue? I mean, these guys sure play a lot of games, but if you look at the actual physical demands of a position player, much of the fatigue seems to come from grueling travel schedules and other off-the-field factors. I’m not saying that being a ballplayer is an easy gig, but there are an awful lot of people in other jobs who seem to be able to sustain a fairly consistent level of performance on a year-round basis, with a couple weeks off here and there.
As far as pitchers go, I can see the wearing down process being a little more tangibly physical, but again, I wonder how much of this fatigue is simply trying to sustain a high level of concentration over the grind of an entire season.
Jeff touched on this a bit in 30, but I had the following two questions about relief pitcher usage.
1) Is 80-85 innings really too much to ask of a relied pitcher?
2) Would Green et al be more effective if they had 60 innings in 45 games pitched rather than 60 IP in 60 G? I assume the micro-managing of the pen adds to the wear and tear and ineffectiveness of the pen, but is there any data?
Thanks
Yeah, that distribution of innings is also what I’m wondering about….
Another excellent post Dave. The disturbing thing is that not only is M’s front office incompetent, but the local media is unable or unwilling to properly do any analysis either….exception pass goes to Geoff Baker and Larry Stone because they usually do their homework.
It doesn’t completely get to the question of our bullpen wearing out, but Tango, et al, looked at relievers in The Book.
A couple of points they made:
They also looked at pitchers specifically with what they called “depleted tanks.” After analyzing data, the conclusion they came up with was:
msb already quoted JJ’s response to the “inexperience” question.
I also think it’s easier to single out relievers than position players. Guillen can drop a couple of balls in a game and that doesn’t make the headline the next day, where a reliever giving up a HR does. All the ills of the team seem to be conveniently left at the bullpen’s doorstep.
Allthough most of the discussion ‘s inordinate preference for “experienced” veterans over raw rookies has centered on the bullpen, other positions have been mentioned too. [See # 44 and others.]
A case in point is Ichiro’s depriving Felix of a win last night by playing shallow–the ball landed short of the warning track.
(Of course, had Velandia hit a flare, and Ichiro made a shoe-string catch…)
Anyway, nothing was said on the broadcast nor in today’s Seattle newspapers. But had Adam Jones (or Reed or Jimerson) been out there, you can bet we would have heard about how the outfielders should be playing deep in that situation to prevent the run-scoring double; that it was simply a “rookie mistake.”
Re: # 45 – Somehow part of the beginning of my diatribe did not appear.
It should read:
“Although most of the discussion of Mariner management’s inordinate preference…”