Off Day Reflection Columns
Since the Mariners didn’t play yesterday, the local dailies all wrote an end-of-season retrospective, with Geoff Baker, Larry Stone, John Hickey, and Larry LaRue all tackling different angles, some with better success than others. If you only have time to read one, read Stone’s, as it is typical of his work – smart, well written, engaging, and the best thing published on the day he submits a column.
Here’s a few highlights from the other three, with a little commentary sprinkled in just for fun.
Hickey:
But before the Mariners get too discouraged, there just might be at least one hidden gem out there. And not a No. 3 guy, either, but a No. 1.
How about Zito?
The Giants offered him $126 million and seven years 10 months ago compared to the six years and $99 million the Mariners offered. Yes he had a bad year. But he’s always been able to pitch in the American League West. And the Giants, who just unloaded Barry Bonds, are going to be rebuilding for a while.
To take on his contract, Seattle would be on the hook for $116 million over six years. But if the Giants can’t compete short-term, it might be worth it to cough up some money to get the Mariners’ obligation closer to the $99 million they offered just to unload Zito’s monster contract. And the Giants could get some young talent they need in exchange.
Congratulations, John – the offseason hasn’t even started yet and you win the award for Worst Idea Of The Winter. The Barry Zito contract is one of the three or four worst in baseball history. The idea that Barry Zito is a #1 starter is ridiculously laughable. You can’t even defend the idea that he’s a #3 starter anymore. He’s an innings-sponge, a back-end starter that is marginally better than Jarrod Washburn. Even if you don’t want to use all these new-fangled performance metrics like “walks” and “strikeouts”, we could point you to his 4.63 ERA – you know, the one that is 3% below league average for a guy pitching half his games in a pretty severe pitchers park.
You don’t have to be any kind of statnerd to know that Barry Zito’s not a particularly good pitcher. That John Hickey is still clinging to this myth is just remarkable.
But, not to let Hickey wallow alone in ridiculous statement land, we get Larry LaRue chipping in with this:
Four seasons into his tenure as GM, Bavasi has improved the team’s record in each of the past three seasons, taking one of the older big-league rosters and turning it into the youngest roster in the major leagues.
Uhh, what? The youngest roster in the major leagues? Where on earth did he get that idea? Baseball-Reference lists average age for each team, sorted by both batters and pitchers, and, well, this isn’t particularly hard to research.
The Mariners hitters have a weighted average age of 29.9, good for 10th in the American League. The only teams with an older offense than Seattle are Boston, Baltimore, Toronto, New York, and Detroit. The average of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays hitters was four years younger than their Seattle counterparts.
Maybe LaRue meant the pitching staff?
Umm, no. The Mariners pitchers averaged 28.1 years of age, ranking 9th in the American League. The Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles all maintained their older-than-Seattle perch and were joined by the Angels and Indians. But every other AL team had a younger pitching staff.
How did this get written, or better yet, get past an editor? How do you watch the team all year, especially when they played a series against Tampa Bay so recently, and somehow come away with the impression that the Mariners have the youngest team in the majors?
LaRue continues on with these statements:
When Sexson was placed on waivers last month, 29 major league teams had the chance to claim him. Not one did.
This goes against numerous published reports stating exactly the opposite, as well as what I’ve been told personally. I’m pretty sure LaRue is wrong about this.
The outfield will bring back Raul Ibañez, Ichiro Suzuki and Adam Jones, and the team has a $9 million option on Guillen, whose strong presence on the field and off was an unexpected bonus.
And, of course, he totally whiffs on the fact that Guillen’s option is mutual, meaning he can void it and become a free agent. The Mariners can’t bring him back for $9 million next year – he’ll test the market if the Mariners don’t give him a multiyear deal.
Not a good effort by LaRue this morning.
And, remember yesterday’s veteran entitlement post? Well, Raul Ibanez offers up exhibit 8,432 in Baker’s article:
“The one thing I want to do is play every day,” he said. “I don’t get to control where, and I’ll play wherever they put me. But as a player, I want to see my name in that lineup.”
That’s right, team – don’t even think about platooning Raul Ibanez and his complete inability to hit lefties. He wants to play everyday, and preferably hit cleanup, where he can continue hitting like a middle infielder against southpaws. Don’t you dare disrespect Raul Ibanez by putting the best team on the field and giving the team the best chance to win. If it comes at the expense of his playing time, he’s not interested.
Don’t you love veterans?
One alternative is to trade Vidro while his numbers are high. Vidro is owed $6 million by the Mariners in 2008, which isn’t bad for a .300 hitter steady from both sides of the plate.
The problem is, Vidro can’t play the field often.
I find it somewhat ironic that, when the topic of trading Vidro is broached, the fact that he’s an immobile tub of goo who can’t run or field is a problem that every other team will recognize, but as long as he’s a Mariner, he’s a huge asset.
And, in a little sidebar, Baker offers up some offseason roster suggestions, including:
1. Trade for Brad Penny – giving up Brandon Morrow and unspecified other players. Penny is a solid pitcher – not nearly as good as his ERA would suggest, mind you, but still above average – but it’s unclear why the Dodgers would be looking to move him this winter, and they’d be unlikely to have any interest in the Mariners two best trade chips (Balentien and Clement), as they already have young established major leaguers at C/RF/LF. It’s something worth exploring, but I’m not sure it makes as much sense as Geoff does.
2. Sign Mark Loretta for $2.5 million. Loretta’s not a terrible player, and I’m fine with the idea of bringing in another infielder to give Jose Lopez some competition for the job, but I wonder if people realize that Loretta was disastrously bad in the second half of the year? If we’re told to believe that Jose Vidro’s second half surge was legit, why are we supposed to ignore the fact that Loretta hit .250/.301/.321 and that he’s turned into a pretty bad defensive player heading into his age 36 season.
Overall, Baker’s offseason makeover involves very minor changes – Penny replaces Weaver in the rotation, Jones takes over right field, Guillen moves to left, Ibanez goes to 1st base, and Sexson goes away.
Is that team better than this year’s version? Yea, probably. Is it good enough to beat the Angels next year? I doubt it. This isn’t a roster that is one player away from winning the world series. If the M’s are serious about building a perenniel contender, they’ll have to do more than this.
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126 Responses to “Off Day Reflection Columns”
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And it’s gotta be a fetish, given that they refuse to modify the dimensions of Safeco.
Either way, there’s plenty of blame to spread on Ibanez and Hargrove/MacLaren; the only question is who gets more.
The athlete. An athlete should always know his ability and his health status. I raced bikes for years. I knew when I was capable and when I wasn’t. I wasn’t able to fool myself into a faster sprint…no more then a batter can convince himself his bat speed is up to par.
I dunno Pete, both Balentien and Jose Guillen are aggressive, right-handed pull-hitters with good power. Neither is a patient hitter who one can rely upon to use the whole field (like, say, Edgar).
I think Dave’s contention is not that there is a difference of type, but of degree.
Jeff and Pete – I know I’m really excited to see what he does with another full season. Maybe that 150 ABs IS such a small sample size it doesn’t matter a lot. I know he was injured at some point in there too.
Jeff – Where did you find those stats? I’ve just been using BBAmerica. That’s incredible he was so consistent that way and SO far off with his other stats.
98 – “Given my background in theatre, I can safely say that as actors, the lot of you would make really good….baseball analysts.”
Get your money back from Uta, it didn’t stick.
“And if the problem is in how management allots playing time (and this is where it is), then you’re wasting time trying to do line readings for Raul and ignoring where the real problems lie.”
Do you really think discussing what Raul meant is keeping me from fixing the Mariners?
Good lord.
We know he’s absurdly strong, so I’m guessing what you’re seeing is the effect that missing two or three hittable pitches can have on your stats over a small sample.
Didn’t Balentien have some injuries during the second half, which might explain the drop in performance?
Is there anyway to know how Balentien plays in Safeco without actually trying him out for awhile? Anyone seen him play in Tacoma? Or is there somekind of ‘hittracker’ date available in the minor leagues?
Mike – Yeah, he dislocated his left pinky on August 13th.
Holy crap. I didn’t know the M’s offered him to the Royals. Check this out on Rotoworld.
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=6
Does anyone think that fans and the media will begin to criticize Ibanez for not asking to be moved out of LF when it is clear that such a move would help the team? My guess is no. Yet Ichiro was often criticized for not volunteering to move to CF. While the situations are not analagous, both exhibit how players naturally want what is best for them and believe that what is best for them is what is best for the team. The manager’s job is to tell them otherwise with the least amount of contention and consternation.
109 – McLaren, like Melvin and Hargrove before him, can’t do that. He has no back bone.
It’s pretty clear that you move Jones to the outfield and Ibanez to first base or DH.
Tell BIG STINKIE and TURBO to pack their bags.
But, it won’t happen. And we’ll be complaining about these same things next year. It never ends …
Yeah, yeah, yeah…that’s what they all say from the other side of the audition table.
Well, generally, I don’t pay attention to the actor–if they’re being misused, I blame the director or producer. Waste of time talking about them.
104 – http://minorleaguesplits.com/
And yeah, Wlad didn’t go deep after returning from his pinky injury.
Jeff – Friggin’ sweet. Thanks a lot.
Firstinning.com is better.
111- “Yeah, yeah, yeah…that’s what they all say from the other side of the audition table.”
?
What was your point by the way?
You said:
“Ghar. Remind not to hire you for script analysis….”
and:
“Given my background in theatre, I can safely say that as actors, the lot of you would make really good….baseball analysts.”
What exactly was your point? You don’t think different words mean different things?
“Well, generally, I don’t pay attention to the actor–if they’re being misused, I blame the director or producer. Waste of time talking about them.”
Then imagine how big a waste of time it must be to talk about people talking about them.
At least your Jon Lovitz impersonation is funny. “Given my background in the theatre (“re”, of course. This isn’t a multiplex, you barbarians.) I’ve learned not to squander my time on the things the groundlings say.”
Dave – Wow, firstinning is awesome too. Thanks a lot.
First Inning is better, but minorleaguesplits is still my first reflex.
81: Scraps – well put point on Bernie Williams. Winning is about putting your best combination of guys on the field to maximize your chances — not about whether or not you piss off the perceived “class acts” in your organization.
The point is that any competent actor (and a lot of incompetent ones) could take the exact quote you got and give two entirely different readings from them. One of them would match your interpretation, one would be entirely different. The statement that you’re so very sure about is, at best, an ambiguous one.
Another point is that folks are spending an awful lot of time over interpreting what a player means when that meaning is irrelevant–you may massage his ego, but you move him to where he will do the best for the team. Just like you place or cast an actor, who have rather large egos themselves, to where the production will do best—you just don’t spend a lot of time worrying about how he’ll take it.
Russ at 102:
I agree that the player has to come clean, and, given the quotes Joser dug up, it sounds like Raul was not entirely forthcoming, which of course screws the team and the fans. On the other hand, it sounds like it was brutally clear in the depths of his slump that his mechanics were impaired. Why, oh why, would McLaren keep sending him up there? Since when is swinging the bat repeatedly the best way to heal a shoulder injury, and if it is, isn’t the place to do that in Tacoma on a rehab stint?
Colm: From what I’ve heard (I haven’t seen enough of Wlad to form a first-hand opinion), he is more of a pull hitter than Guillen, whose spray chart actually shows him hitting more outfield balls to the center (LCF to RCF) region that left. It also shows Guillen hits breaking balls for better average than fastballs, which tells me he isn’t a dead-pull hitter. Balls hit in the infield (which I would argue are balls he probably hit less well, or was fooled on) – yeah, he tends to pull. He’s not a pull hitter like, say, Lopez or Johjima, who hit more balls on the ground and to the outfield (Lopez 47% of balls in play; Johjima 50%) than almost all other places combined.
I don’t know why exactly, but I am under the impression that Balantien is more like Lopez/Johjima than Guillen. A matter of degree? Probably.
119 – “The point is that any competent actor (and a lot of incompetent ones) could take the exact quote you got and give two entirely different readings from them. One of them would match your interpretation, one would be entirely different. The statement that you’re so very sure about is, at best, an ambiguous one.”
You think that since an actor can read a line different ways that means that the words themselves have no meaning?
But why would I care what an actor would mean? I was talking about what Raul meant. He chose to say something and chose a specific way to say it.
Does a photograph mean nothing because someone could turn it pink with photoshop?
And putting all that aside… you rely on actors to tell you what something means? Because if you don’t then who cares how they interpret it? And if you do, then… ouch.
For your second point… That would be lovely if I got to make the decision. You seem to be confusing what the organization should do and what I, as a fan, should discuss. I don’t have anything to do with the former, and the latter shouldn’t really concern you, I wouldn’t think.
I’m getting to the party late, but…what?
John Hickey is seriously advocating trading for Barry Zito? In what world could that possibly even make sense?
Giving credit where credit is due: I saw the link to that story posted by “jlc” at the end of this game thread, which also features a link to a similar story about Sexson:
John Hickey is seriously advocating trading for Barry Zito? In what world could that possibly even make sense?
HickeyWorld, where Zito is always desirable, Penny is always available, and the M’s can trade Reed for Haren.
It’s Hickey’s World, but hopefully he’s the only guy who has to live in it.
I really liked Stone’s column too, and, following on yesterday’s post about Dodgers veterans, he notes that the M’s and Dodgers are 2 of the 3 high-spending teams that aren’t going to the post-season. Not much of a mystery there: veterans are expensive, and if you load up your roster with them and then they don’t produce, what you have is a very expensive also-ran team. This is not unlike Tom Boswell’s “California Malingerers” that I cited yesterday in the veterans’ post. (He was referring to the California Angels’ teams of the late ’90’s, which had lots of very expensive free agent stars, but went absolutely nowhere.)