Predicting the 2008 M’s fortunes
As we wait and wait for the axe to fall on the trade…
I’ve run some guesstimates, some numbers, and some simulations using projection data to see where the Mariners might turn out. Normally, those kind of exercises are interesting but kind of pointless: it’s why you play the games, right? And if I’m guessing at one thing and the sims come out a lot lower, so what — it’s not as if any of these things affects the team’s fortunes. I could tinker with the team’s lineup in DMB and run a million simulated seasons and it wouldn’t help or hurt their actual performance.
“My Little Pony” photo by Katie@! and used under the Creative Commons license.
It’s more important this season, though. The M’s have decided they’re going to take a shot at the division title and are making a potentially huge long-term sacrifice for a short-term gain. It’s the result of their assessment of the team’s potential this season. If they’re wrong, they’ve done themselves wrong. If they’re right, the rewards for getting the team to the playoffs are huge.
That’s why I look at the sims, for instance, and frown. If the trade off was Jones for a World Series, I would take it — I think any of us would. It’s not that certain, of course. But if the team’s really only going to win 88 games with Bedard and miss the playoffs, or if they’re going to finish much worse than that, the long-term tradeoff isn’t worth it.
To return to the sims, for a second — I’m as inclined as anyone to look at results like that and dismiss them, but I want to be able to have a good reason to. I don’t. ZiPS projections are pretty good — last year they ran alongside PECOTA. I can argue why I think some of them are off, but as a system, it’s tough to argue with the results.
And when I took a swing at coming up with runs scored/allowed numbers for the team and putting that into wins, there are points where I could say “there’s a pretty large margin for variation here” but it was for both good and bad, and taking only the good isn’t reasonable. Lopez might resume his growth as a hitter, but maybe Sexson doesn’t bounce back at all. Ibanez might be healthy, able to run better and hit well, and Washburn could be bothered by his elbow and have a bad year. I don’t see the team is all potential for improvement, or all candidates for collapse.
The M’s almost certainly understand that given their runs allowed and runs scored numbers last year, their W-L record should have been worse than it was. But I’d bet, as some of our commenters have pointed out, that they’ve got a whole set of reasons why the win total is for real: the disaster starts, injuries, Rick White, veteran grit and clubhouse leadership. There’s a natural tendency to justify favorable luck as the product of things they did, while dismissing bad results as circumstance.
I don’t know what they think supports their belief that they can run with the Angels this year. I would bet they’re not running Diamond Mind sims with projection data, but they’ve certainly had organizational meetings over the winter where they came to agreement about all of this. And we know that they value players much differently than I do, and measure them on different criteria.
But knowing where a team is, and how it’s likely to do, is one of the most important things they can do well. A team that knows when to try to go all out to build a championship team that year or when to look to youth and a longer timeframe will do far better than one that does those things at the wrong times (and the last few years are filled with examples of the former).
I hope, for the M’s sake and my own as a fan, that whatever they’re thinking turns out to be correct this season, because they’re betting a huge chunk of the team’s future on their belief that the short-term improvement of Bedard is worth the long-term sacrifice. That I don’t see that that’s likely doesn’t mean it won’t happen, or that I’m not hoping they’re right.
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Have we ever discussed Bedards spike in K’s per IP in 2007? Is it sustainable?
#99 Guess what? Lockers accuracy is still going to suck when he is a junior and senior.
Yeah? Well, the casual fans think they’re gonna win NOW since they’re getting Bedard….
Coasty — just wait until Locker’s coming out of the M’s pen in 2010.
I’m not sure how believing that Bedard gives the M’s a much better chance to win NOW makes you a “casual fan”.
Good call. I’m looking foward to seeing him on Daves future 40
He said that casual fans think that, not that if you think that you’re a casual fan.
Geoff Baker seems to think Vidro is the bestest #2 hitter ever, pointing out that he had a .900 OPS when coming to the plate with a runner on first only. Geoff says that it wasn’t Vidro killing rallies last year.
Except when he did. Vidro was tied for seventh in the AL with 21 GDP last year. He joined Johjima (22 GDP) in the top ten for GDP. I did a quick GDP per plate appearance, and lo and behold Joh was the worst at .043 and Vidro was ninth at .034. No wonder the M’s were tied for the most GDP in the MLB with St. Louis.
I can’t think of any reason to think that this team will be better at staying out of the double play this year than last. And the odds Vidro continues to be a machine with a guy on first?
Fair enough Wishhiker. I just think in this case that if the “casual fan” view is that getting Bedard gives the M’s a better chance to win in 2008, the casual fan view is correct.
Sure, it gives them a better chance in 2008, but does it give them a GOOD one? I really doubt it. Ergo, trade sucks.
OMG Ponies! Wait, this isn’t /.?
My recollection is that the love of Cruz came more out of his performance (slugging .541, 12 homers in 49 games for the greatest home run hitting team of all time) once he got to the M’s than his prospect status up to that point. I’d seen him play in Tacoma and I’d not been impressed, but it seemed like he was really responding to the winning atmosphere and the veteran leadership on the club. Edgar was an incredible mentor to young Hispanic players. And let’s face it, we’d not had a left fielder since Phil Bradley we actually wanted to see stay here. I never thought he was going to be a world beater, but he was going to fill a hole. If you look at his stats for the Blue Jays and compare them to what we actually had in left field from 1998-2002, you’d have been perfectly satisfied to have him during his club control and arbitration years.
The thing with Jones is that our expectations are a lot higher because we don’t have Griffey, Martinez, Rodriguez and Buhner. The second coming of Chet Lemon wouldn’t win us a lot of division titles (and it won’t win the Orioles any either).
You just don’t get it. It’s why they play the games, man…….
Unless a contract extension is a possible part of the trade, but… is that probable? Has that ever been part of a trade?
I believe that the Twins-Mets Santana trade was just like that.
I don’t know what to make of the fact that the trade is still hanging fire–I’ve never seen anything like it. I thought usually the teams announce trades contingent on the players passing physicals, rather than have them take physicals before the trade is announced. When the Tigers made their big trade for Willis and Cabrera last fall, it was all official and announced as a done deal within hours.
I don’t think it’s out of the question for the Mariners to be a contender this year–playing an unbalanced schedule in the weakest division is the league has certain advantages. But it’s going to take some serious good luck–probably something has to go majorly wrong with the Angels. Hey, sometimes, trying to draw to an inside straight works!
Well, there’s winning, and there’s winning…
Better team? Yes…. Playoff team? Probably not. Getting deep into the playoffs? Nope….
And the casual fan is thinking towards the latter when they think “winning”…
113: MLB will allow teams to make a deal contingent on negotiating an extension within a certain window of time. However, that is entirely optional with the teams and there is no indication that the Bedard trade is so contingent. Just another damn thing that Bavasi was unwilling to ask for.
I’m sure he was. of course, Cheito was raised in Houston, the son of a major leaguer and went to college at Rice, so he might not have needed all that much major-leage mentoring…
more mindreading?
Well, has anything about this Bedard trade been finalized YET? I just want to know, because I’m beginning to think this is Bavasi’s way of getting even with all the criticism of him here on USSM.
terry: So what’s Vidro going to fix…the fact that he hits a lot of weak grounders or the fact that he’s really slow? It was predicted on this blog that Vidro would lead the league in GDP and he came very close to doing so. If you think this will change you should come up with a reason why, other than “that’s why they play the games.” So in your universe Pirates fans have as much reason to expect to win the WS as Red Sox fans…because until they “play the games” there’s no reason to believe one team has a better chance than the other? I hope the M’s FO isn’t making decisions like that…but I suspect they might be.
[button term violation]
Anyone know if we got an adjustable rate on this mortgaging of our future? I’m assuming so…
I think we should reset the counter.
Official Counter Reset coming in 3…2…1…
[ponies]
I think you completely missed the point.
Can we start the official Yu Darvish countdown now?