It’s Done
Press conference at two. Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, and Kam Mickolio for Erik Bedard in the most anti-climactic trade in the history of mankind.
So, now that’s official, and practically everything that could be written about this trade has been, I’d like to offer up one last question to those who think the Mariners have done well this off-season in revamping their pitching staff. Assuming that Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva both stay healthy and make their 34 starts, what do you expect the Mariners record to be in those 68 games?
36-32? 38-30? 40-28? I’d imagine that it’s almost certainly going to be somewhere in that range.
The Mariners record in the 68 games in 2008 that were started by Jeff Weaver, Horacio Ramirez, Cha Seung Baek, and Ryan Feierabend? 32-36.
Yep, for all the talk about how terrible the back end of the Mariners rotation was last year (and in terms of individual performance, it was), the Mariners were a .470 club when their #4/#5 starters were on the hill. Even if you believe they’ll be a .560 club with Bedard and Silva on the hill, and if you believe that neither will miss a start all season, then you’re expecting the team to go 38-30 in those 68 games. That’s a 6 win improvement.
(Bedard + Silva) – (Weaver + Ramirez + Feierabend + Baek) = 6 wins, if you assume that no one gets hurt, everyone else on the roster plays at their ’07 level, Wilkerson = Guillen, and losing Sherrill has no impact on the bullpen.
Yep, this trade still sucks.
Drayer has a nice salute to Sherrill and Jones on her blog
F-Rod,
You skipped arithmetic didn’t you?
Hahahaha, I can’t believe that argument went on as long as it did, with no one noticing that the sum of 23 and 18 is 41. HAHAAHAHAHA!! You sounded so exasperated — “gaw, Bedard could easily 18 on his own!” …uh, that’s not even half of 40.
You basically proved Dave’s point for him.
Wow. Bold tag.
I guess that depends on your definition of rooting and meaningful. Is the option that the team leaves town and there’s no more baseball? I’d much rather be a fan of a hometown team, even a bad one, than get all my baseball on TV. And, if you actually knew unequivocally the final standings, there’d be that whole messy fixing games component that would be a problem.
As for meaningful, if you’re saying winning the World Series is all that matters, welcome to the world of the Cubs fans, or earlier generations of Red Sox fans. Cleveland, Texas, Houston and SF, too. Personally, I’m looking for good baseball, and if that means you’re in a small market that turns into a defacto minor league team, I could enjoy watching the youngsters grow and the oldsters wander into retirement (though that is definitely not a rationale for Seattle).
For me, the frustration is not with how soon we win the Series or get into the playoffs. It’s the spinning of wheels, the promise of getting better, the tease of a few good months only to collapse, the waste of talent and other resources that gets me. If I knew the Ms were going to be horrible, I would have a completely different mind set.
[how dare you defame Doyle]
1. If you want to win a World Series, you have to bring in some high priced talent to play along side your homegrown talent. The current “class” of MLB, the Red Sox, have a big group of “hired guns” who didn’t come up thru Pawtucket (Ortiz, Ramirez, Varitek, Crisp, Schilling, Beckett, Dice K, etc.).
2. Growing the major league organization completely on the farm may yield good results, but may not get you over the top. Its been several years since the A’s or Twins or Indians won it all.
3. There is definitely a role for stat analysis/sabrmetrics in evaluating organiztional performance (although its primary function may be treatment for insomnia). However, ultimate outcomes often turn on “intangibles” (injuries, a good or bad bounce here or there, mental and physical fatigue) over the course of 162 games. How else would one explain the triumph of inferior teams (e.g. 2006 Cardinals, 2003 Marlins) from time to time.
4. Might the presence of Bedard improve Felix’s performance over the length of the season? I mean, this takes some of the pressure off of Felix to be the “Savior of the Franchise”, and he may thrive in a way unmeasurable by statistical modeling.
For 306:
1: While getting other talents can be a big part of winning a world series, its not helpful if it doesn’t get you into the playoffs. Also, Varitek… well… God, that trade was stupid. Anyways, Varitek’s played his entire major league career for the Red Sox after we traded him away for Heathcliff Slocumb as a minor leaguer.
2: The Marlins have done this a couple times. Grow a world series team, sell off the entire team for prospects from other teams, and then wash, rinse, repeat.
3. While the results often depend on random chance, you want to minimize the need of luck to get you wins. For example, if you’re dealt a 16 in blackjack while the dealer has a 5 showing, you can win by doubling down. However, that doesn’t give you that great of odds, while a better plan would be to stand. Even if everything is determined randomly, there is likely a choice that will result in success more times then the others, which is what Sabermetrics tries to figure out.
4. No, that won’t have any effect on him playing better. What would make him play better is the fact that he is going to be another year older, with more experience then he was last year. He’s 22 this season, so he still has a lot of growth left, but it won’t be because he’s not the number one starter anymore.
Adam Jones may well have been our future…but right now, we are playing for today. Bavasi knows this is his last chance and he very well could be canned if the team doesn’t make the playoffs. BY signing Silva and trading for Bedard (a Cy Young candidate), we have given ourselves a deep rotation. We lose Sherill, but look at who’s all in our bullpen now. Flaherty, Putz, Morrow, Ramirez, Rowland-Smith. As well as possibly having Arthur Rhodes and R.A. Dickey. We may have given up prospects, but now our whole pitching staff is very deep. Another interesting fact I came upon…Sherill is a year older then Bedard. Sherill was a great reliever, but Bedard could be key to us winning the division. Bedard went 13-5 on a very bad team in 28 starts. Let’s say he stays healthy, gets in 34 starts, and has the same ERA as last year. Your looking at a 19-20 game winner, easy. Throw in Silva’s 13-14 wins. Felix will probably get 14-15. Washburn will get 9-10 and Batista 13-14. That’s way better then having last year’s rotation (Felix, Washburn, Batista, Weaver, Ramirez, Morrow, Flaherty). Due to the fact that we now have a great pitching staff and a great defense, I think we did very well in this trade. I don’t think Jones is going to pan out either. The guy didn’t do much at the Majors last year, what’s going to change that this year? Oh…and 3 “highly” regarded prospects may never pan out either. I think we got a steal in the trade by far
If you want to win a World Series, you have to bring in some high priced talent to play along side your homegrown talent. The current “class†of MLB, the Red Sox, have a big group of “hired guns†who didn’t come up thru Pawtucket (Ortiz, Ramirez, Varitek, Crisp, Schilling, Beckett, Dice K, etc.).
How many of those Red Sox players were acquired by trading away a bunch of farm system talent? Just wondering.
I don’t think Jones is going to pan out either. The guy didn’t do much at the Majors last year, what’s going to change that this year?
Covered in BEEEEEEEEES!
Re: #308.
You forgot to mention Mark Lowe. When he was healthy, he was an outstanding reliever, and he could step into a 7th or 8th inning role. I think that, by and large, relief pitchers are easier to find than starters. Three years ago, no one had heard of George Sherill, he was a minor league journeyman. The club recognized a gem, polished him up, and ran him out there. They can do the same with the young talent currently available.
Adam Jones is, by all accounts, loaded with potential. He may be the next Ken Griffey Jr. Or he may be the next Mike Cameron. The next year or two should tell.
My point about Boston was that some magical mix of homegrown prospects and “Pros from Dover” seems to be the formula for winning big in pro sports. Dealing away young players may not be a bad thing if you deal away the right ones. Spending millions in the free agent market may not be bad if you spend wisely. I know that the recurring theme in USSM is that the current management does neither well. Hopefully this deal will buck the trend.
Um, notice the timing.
Generally, you deal the youngsters AFTER you’re core is set, and not the core itself.
309 – everybody seems to forget, but Beckett was traded for Hanley Ramirez, who is widely regarded as the next A-Rod, so you’re right, tons of talent has been extracted from the Red Sox farm system for those players.
The difference is, of course, they actually had a strong lineup when the trade was made.
308 – “Due to the fact that we now have a great pitching staff and a great defense, I think we did very well in this trade.”
Who ever said we have a marginal defense, let alone a great one? The King of Bloopers himself is still patrolling RF, and Sexson still blows at first base. He’d blow if he were 7’6”. The middle of the field is very good, as is the third baseman, but anything more is a stretch.
My opinion of this team has completely changed and now I’m only looking at them solely as a source of entertainment. When Felix and Bedard pitch I’m going to be excited, but I certainly am not going into this season with expectations of the playoffs. Wake me up in four months if the M’s are in the hunt, that way I can watch them collapse again on the back of crappy defense and a worn down bullpen.
With all the Boston talk, I thought it would be interesting to compare the combined numbers between their starting pitchers of 2007 and ours for this year with the 2007 numbers also.
Boston- Dice-K, Beckett, Wakefield, Schilling and Taverez
Seattle- King Felix, Wash, Batista, Silva and Bedard
Boston 68-50 878IP 415ER 4.254ERA
Seattle 66-52 960IP 426ER 3.993ERA
If our guys can put up similar numbers to last years, we are almost dead on with the world champs with a more rested bullpen.
Now, if we can only find a way to score 867 runs like they did last year…
Park effects.