Bavasi Blissfully Unaware Of Real Analysis
From Baker’s notes of a conference call Bavasi had with reporters a little while ago.
“This is not a field managerial issue,” he said. “John is doing a good job. Our performance is not related to his work. It’s purely related to player performance and underperformance and underachievement. Nobody had the nerve to pick us less than second place in our division. We were picked anything from first to second to wild-card. You name it. The expectations were a heck of a lot higher than this, based on any analysts’ evaluation of out players’ individual track records and their age. Their ages are such that they’re not all young guys that they’re inexperienced. But they’re not too old to believe that they would backslide. So, I think those expectations are realistic. They were and they are.”
My official prediction: 83-79, one game better than Texas, nowhere close to the playoffs.
PECOTA projections: 76-86, third place, nowhere close to the playoffs.
ZIPS projections: 72-90, third place, nowhere close to the playoffs
CHONE projections: 83-79, nowhere close to the playoffs
Hardball Times projections: 79-83, third place, nowhere close to the playoffs.
Lots of people had “the nerve” to tell you that you did a horrible job building this roster, Bill. Lots of people pointed out that this team wasn’t a contender. Lots of people told you that you that you had a roster setup for failure, with collapse potential everywhere. You just don’t listen to those people, because they’re nerds with computers who don’t understand baseball. Or something.
But you don’t get to rewrite history. We knew this team wasn’t good, and we spent the entire offseason trying to tell you that. You ignored us at your own peril, and you built a terrible baseball team for $117 million. That’s your fault.
And now, rather than learning from your mistakes, admitting that you have absolutely no idea how to evaluate pitching talent, you’re completely ignorant of how to value defense, you don’t know what kinds of hitters work in your own park, and realizing that there’s an entire school of analysis that could help improve the decision making of the club, you’re once again focusing on things like clubhouse leadership and character.
This is ridiculous. Build a good baseball team, and you won’t have to talk about all this psycho babble crap that you guys invent to try to justify your horrible decisions. Learn more about baseball than a blogger who lives 2,500 miles from Safeco Field and covers the team as a freaking hobby. I shouldn’t know more about how to build a baseball team than you, but I do, and that’s why you and your entire staff deserve to be fired.
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I’d also say listen to Drayer’s interview with him this morning; it has some other nuggets, including the vague and mysterious comment that as a team they are not giving in, but “doing it with this nucleus is another question” …
#85:
I understand the content of the post, and completely agree with it. I didn’t think the Ms would be much better than they’ve turned out to be. I thought Bedard was on track to being Zito 2.0…
I was just pointing out that so-called baseball experts nearly unanimously agreed that the Ms would be awesome this year, and these are the most heralded experts in the land! Its just another example of how irrational analysis is still du rigeur when it comes to baseball, and how even simple statistical models are still treated as bogeymen by the media. Gut feelings go hand in hand with clutch and grit.
I wish Bavasi would’ve pulled a Mugatu and just started ranting and raving and then finish with, “I feel like I am taking crazy pills!”
Oh, this is rich:
Carlos Silva sucks up to Bavasi
Hey Silva, you are one of the players that sucks. STFU.
“…he’s on the verge of doing it.”
Uhhh that pretty much sums up leadership right there. You wait until things get this bad and then you may or may not talk to some of your teammmates. Gritty veteran leadership. LOVE IT.
Well, clearly Washburn is what the Mariners are looking for. He knew that Kenji was ruining his games and did something about it.
Yeah, great process to build on.
Bavasi isn’t the only one who insists that ‘everyone said we’d be good’ — because the talking heads and big media columnists said it back before the season, it must be true — so it gets repeated on the radio all the time
Right, it’s the echo chamber effect. The extent of the analysis is — hey, they won 88 last year, they added Bedard and only gave up prospects and a guy I never heard of, plus Guillen… put them down for 93 and the Division, or second if the Angels do really well. And somebody else does the same thing, or thinks the first guy sounds reasonable, and he happens to be on the radio or have a national column, and pretty soon everybody else thinks that sounds reasonable too. All on 30 seconds of “analysis” and zero critical thinking. Meanwhile, all the people who actually sit down and add up the numbers — and get derided for doing exactly that sort of thing — come up with a much lower win total. And it was indeed all the people — not just a couple of guys in their parents’ basements with a blog; oh no, as Dave notes this was everybody who actually looks at the stats and thinks about comparables and age-related declines and old player skills and quantifiable defense and pitching tendencies — “esoteric” things that turn out to matter, and happen to get used by smart front offices in cities like Oakland and Cleveland and Tampa and Boston — all the “quant” types looked at Seattle and independently crunched the numbers and estimates and said “You know what? This isn’t a very good team. They played over their head last year, and they’re not likely to do that again, and even if they do it’s still not a very good team.” It certainly wasn’t “one big trade” away from contending.
But hey, sure they were right, but so what? Just this week a national columnist gave Bavasi a “B” grade for the Bedard trade (the Orioles, with their new closer who, with 17 saves in 19 chances, already has saved more games in half as many chances as their closer last year, gets a B+).
Guillen did not play a “fine right field,” and letting him go was not one of Bavasi’s mistakes.
Great post. Made me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.
So… I’m guessing Bavasi will not be making an appearance at this year’s LL/USSM event.
Of all the guys struggling on the team, there are really only four who’s struggles are easier to explain by “chemistry” than by talent: Felix, Lopez, Betancourt, and Johjmia.
Felix should be better than he is, but it seems like his pitch selection remains awful with an over-reliance on the FB. I doubt that’s Johjima’s fault – I think it’s the organizational philosophy about “establishing the fastball” and an inability of the club to teach him how to mix his pitches. You can’t teach stuff like Felix has, but you can sure as hell teach how to use pitch selection to get the most out of your stuff, and the M’s don’t seem to be doing that.
Lopez and Betancourt, I don’t know. Their defense has gone to hell with lots of mental mistakes. They really don’t seem to be playing up to their potential. If there’s a place for a “clubhouse leader” to make an impact, it’s by getting these guys to focus. But what kind of message does it send when the club brings in Cairo to push you for your job? What kind of message does it send guys in their early 20’s when veterans are allowed to struggle for multiple seasons while “kids” like Clement and Baek are shipped out if they don’t produce immediately.
Johjima: his offense has gone to hell, and he’s too young (even for a catcher) to fall off a cliff this badly. D’ya suppose all the carping he’s getting from the pitching staff is distracting him? The carping that the teams’ management seems happy to indulge? If I was looking for ugga-boooga hurting Johjima, I’d start there. The team just signed him to a long contract – tell the pitchers to put a cork in it.
Lack of talent explains most of the struggles this team is having, but to the extent bad chemistry is making it worse, I can’t blame the players. Management praises Ibanez for hiding an injury. Management allows a replacement level pitcher to badmouth the catcher they just signed to a long-term deal. Management sets the veteran-entitlement tone and wonders why young players struggle to improve, looking over their shoulder for some greybeard waiting to take their jobs.
I don’t think that Dave has any illusions that he could successfully run the Ms. To me his point in this thread is that it’s sad that Bavasi has planted his head in the sand so far regarding the mountains of research piling up that there are passionate members of the blogoshpere who understand how to value players better than Bavasi-which is not an insignificant part of Bavasi’s job description.
It’s not about Dave or USSM being brilliant (though I’ve learned a ton through the authors’ efforts). It’s that there is absolutely no reason Bavasi can’t understand these principles if passionate hobbyists outside of the industry can grasp them. In other words, Bavasi’s refusal to consider saber principles is reckless to such a degree that he should be considered incompetent.
Or perhaps another way to rephrase the point-Bavasi is soooooo bad at this portion of his job in many cases through willful ignorance that it doesn’t matter how golden he is at performing the other functions associated with GMing the Ms…
It’s not that USSM is the ultimate truth. It’s that USSM’s existance is an indictment of Bavasi’s job performance.
It’s Bavasi’s inability to learn from his own mistakes that underlies his incompetence.
It’s his apparent unwillingness to consider new ideas (i.e. sabermetric-derived ones in particular) that largely underlies his inability to learn from his own mistakes.
Incompetent people should be fired.
Speaking of greybeards… as one on this site, may I quote Les Dudek (Great guitar player and singer from the late seventies), from the fade out on his hit, ( Old Judge Jones), which perfectly captures my feelings at this point:
‘GODDAMN
GODDAMN
GODDAMN
GODDAMN
GODDAMN!’
In all fairness Dave, I think that are only five people out there that know how to build a baseball team better than you.
So… I’m guessing Bavasi will not be making an appearance at this year’s LL/USSM event.
No, because hopefully the M’s GM will be attending instead.
The Mariners do not fire GMs in mid-season.
Dave has always been very honest about this: a GM’s job requires a lot of different characteristics, and the proper evaluation of talent — while necessary, even crucial, and certainly the most publicly obvious — is just one of them. By itself it’s not sufficient. Bavasi in fact excels in some of those other areas (and arguably that’s the only reason he still has his job). DePodesta’s short time with the Dodgers illustrates this (to some extent). Dave would make an awesome assistant GM, or assistant to the GM… assuming the GM actually paid attention to him. In fact, Bavasi has such a person on staff — Mat Olkin — and, well, I think you can judge for yourself how much use Bavasi makes of him.
118 – Dave Cameron: Assistant
to theGeneral ManagerThe Mariners do not fire GMs in mid-season.
I don’t see how that should stop me from making a joke. Or a wish.
That’s a bunch of nonsense.
For one, no one is saying “I told you so.” That is a ridiculous characterization of this post.
Second, Who cares how far from a hundred wins it is? Bavasi said everyone thought we would be good… which is a lie.
And whatever you think of the internet in general and this site in particular it has to be counted among “everyone,” when talking about this team.
“Not fair or honest…” – what a bunch of crap.
Dave is being too modest. He could do the job if it was given to him. He would simply need to surround himself with the right advisors.
What Bavasi (or Mac) does, doesn’t require inherent athletic ability or inborn talent… it’s not the same thing as thinking someone could be a prizefighter or a second baseman.
Bavasi has a job that a smart, reasonably personable person could do, provided they spent enough energy preparing for it.
Same is true for any number of other jobs. If Dave wanted to be a movie director or a wedding director , he could do that, too.
Olkin wasn’t on staff, he was a consultant: the M’s would go to him with questions, like “here’s a list of prospects we’re looking at for no good reason, what do you think?”
He didn’t participate in larger discussions.
Moreover, I don’t believe he’s still consulting for the team.
Also, Bavasi used the word nerve in that quote and guts in the other article – both intentionally insulting words. He is lashing out. Dave has every right to be pissed, I am.
I use this as an example, not as a political point, because the views themselves are irrelevant… but a while back, the current president’s administration had a talking point that was basically: “Hey, who could possibly have known that Iraq would turn out to be the mess that it has become… all this criticism is just monday morning quarterbacking.”
They KNOW, as does Bavasi, that other people DID know better… but pretending no one did, they can try to deflect blame away from where it belongs… and that is infuriating. Both because it impedes accountability and because it dismisses everyone who tried to stop the disaster before it started.
Screw all of them.
What worries me the most is that I think the whole organization thinks like Bavasi
This a quote from Raul Ibanez about the team’s struggles…
Hmmm….ya sure..and it shows by how team is responding on the field…
No one is suffering more than these poor millionaires…Certainly not us, the fans….
*cringe*
#91:
Well, if the Mariners ownership doesn’t want to fire anybody after this season, then they can expect people to stop watching and buying tickets. That solves that problem.
If the Mariners want to run the team like a corporation, fine. I may just root for another baseball team because I root for baseball teams, not corporations.
C’mon, everybody sing!
“Always look on the bright side of the life. . .”
Jeez, the “millionaires” dismissal again: the word people pull out when they want to disregard anything an athlete says. I think you’re showing a real lack of perspective, BillyJive, if you don’t think most (at least) of the players are suffering more than the fans. For us, it’s a passion, a supplement to our lives. For them, it is their lives. They’re living with losing, every day. I’m not saying you should feel sorry for them — before you throw that one out there, too — just don’t fool yourself that you feel worse than they do. For us, it’s frustration. For them, what they are right now is failures. Yeah, yeah, they have the money, I’m sure that takes the edge off the suffering. But if you’re going to demand that kind of honest perspective from them, turn it around on yourself: how much are you really suffering? How much is this actually making your life worse?
I have problems with Ibanez, but that quote looks heartfelt to me — and a lot more honest than Bavasi’s quote — and I don’t have a problem with it.
Mariners Baseball:
“The Mojo’s Sinkin'” or “We Have Hit The Iceberg, Women and Children First!”
Well I think there are some long-time (since 1977) die-hard fans here that would argue those points with you. These Mariners are currently suffering through a losing season. Some of us have suffered through way too many!
I just hate hearing someone who is being paid millions of dollars and not doing their job very well to tell us how much they are ‘suffering’…but that’s just me…
and for the record I respect Raul as a hitter…maybe not so much as our full-time LF…
He’s defending himself and the team from Bavasi’s crap — and no doubt he knows what a lot of fans think, too. He’s saying they’re trying. I believe that. But then I believed they weren’t good going in to the season.
I’ve been a fan since 1977. I hate the losing seasons. I’m sure the players hate it more than I do. If I thought for a minute that I cared as much as most players do, I would think I was in way too deep. Cheering for my team, sure; being happy and sad and angry at their fortunes, yes; but suffering, suffering like someone for whom it’s the center of his life? Shouldn’t I have my own life center, things that I do, things that I suffer for if I fail? The players are not supposed to be surrogates for my own self-worth.
And if you really resent the millions of sollars they make, and think it no longer entitles them to suffer when they fail at what they do, you’re free to stop contributing your share. I sincerely don’t understand people the issue with the players making that money. We all pay it; where should the money go? I never thought I was buying their humanity, personally.
I don’t have a problem with the players making the kind of money that they do…as long as they earn it…
And, believe me, this season I’m not contributing a cent to this team unless I see some improvement..and fast
And while Ibanez may be trying to defend himself from Bavasi’s crap not all the players are..and I quote…
Customers. If we ignore them long enough, maybe they’ll stop bothering us…
Well at least they can’t threaten to move the team to Tampa Bay to get us to go to the games…
#134: And thank god for that.
and it’s amazing how many guys on the radio, or calling in, are sure that if Guillen were still on the team the losing streaks would stop.
yup, Churchill said earlier in the thread that he wasn’t
well, FWIW, Bavasi said to Drayer this morning:
“When asked about consequences he replied, “Our failure right now is painful enough. I’m not sure what consequence is worse than having to go through what we are going through right now. If this doesn’t kill you, nothing will. If this isn’t enough pain I’m not sure what is.—
“Our performance is not related to his work.”- Oh-Mah-Gawd. Drowing…in….irony. What’s really funny about that statement is that it could apply to a helluva-lot of people in this organization.
It’s difficult to describe what’s going on with the M’s without using the word “cluster.” We have Silva who is “on the verge” of speaking up and we have Ibanez who claims it’s already happening, all at the same time as Bavasi says no one on the team is capable of doing so.
When asked in an interview about his team’s performance, Bavasi goes into “he started it” mode by bringing up that “no one” picked them to be less than second in their division (translated: I’m not stupid…see?…they though we’d be good too.”) The problem with that logic, of course, is that Bavasi is supposed to KNOW what’s good and what isn’t, whereas all the “experts” are paid to give opinions.
I found the Mariners frustrating last year. I got tired of that “WTF?” look on McLaren’s face during in game shots. Then the off season where we got “our guy” in Bedard. And I know that we could end up somewhere around the .500 mark plus or minus by year end. But the past week or so of just being flat out embarassed game after game has brought it all to a new level.
Ummm…note to Bavasi…when a player has a performance problem it’s pretty simple to figure out who it is and point him out. When no one has a clue what the problem is and how to fix it, it’s probably because the problem extends beyond the field and into the FO and management/ownership. Quit pointing elsewhere and look in the mirror.
Man, if I had the money, I would take out a FULL PAGE ad in The Times/P.I. and run Dave’s post (with permission, of course). Seriously, can we maybe get some donations together? I want to do SOMETHING.
I mean really Bill…
“This is…purely related to player performance and underperformance and underachievement.”
Really? A collapse of pitching and hitting at the same time is because of player problems? Who decided to bring these “slackers” onto the team anyway Bill?
“Nobody had the nerve to pick us less than second place in our division. We were picked anything from first to second to wild-card. You name it.”
Who cares? It doesn’t matter what you were picked to do. It matters what you actually accomplish. Quit confusing the issue by trying to spread the blame.
“The expectations were a heck of a lot higher than this, based on any analysts’ evaluation of out players’ individual track records and their age. Their ages are such that they’re not all young guys that they’re inexperienced. But they’re not too old to believe that they would backslide. So, I think those expectations are realistic. They were and they are.â€
It’s comforting to hear that the expectations were higher than this. One could argue that the expectations aren’t high enough anyway. But, again, quit confusing the issue. “Any” analyst should be looking at the overall sum total of the team and not basing things on their individual past history and age.
This is sad.
The only reason that everyone at the top is backing each other right now (I don’t think it’s the dreaded vote of confidence) is that the core of the rotten apple is being exposed. They know that if one of them goes, it’ll have to be all of them, and what are the odds of that? Not good. Even a Bavasi firing isn’t going to be enough. Mac is probably the least culpable of the lot.
Bavasi needs to go, and Howie and Chuckie need to go, or if they don’t, at least get the hell outta the way. Admit that you should be in a courtroom legally ripping off people and not ruining a baseball team.
At some point, I have a feeling the M’s FO board meeting was like that Directv commercial parody of a Comcast board meeting:
“We need new customers! The ones we have are all calling in and complaining!”
“I know! We’ll make funny commercials and bobbleheads! Install a swingset! Screw those baseball fans, we’ll get women and children. They won’t complain.”
Well, as others have stated, being a GM means a lot of advisers and delegation. It is just like any other head of an organization, makes decisions, but does not do all the research and stuff by themselves. I think Dave has a pretty good grasp on not only evaluation, but contract worth, fan relations, the media, and more. And as long as he can find people to surround himself with, he’d do spectacular. As a comparison, I would vote for a mentally retarded person for president, provided their cabinet and advisers were the BEST ever. For heads of organizations, the ability to create the organizations’ structure is more important than individual ability. There is always someone more expert at stuff.
Besides, the argument of his not having done it before so he couldn’t be good is ridiculous. Just because it hasn’t been done means nothing. I’ve never raced a car on a track, but I’m pretty sure I’d do fairly well with it, I know my talents with cars. Dave knows his talents and limitations in baseball. As does many others I’m sure. But the fact that he found a group of friends to make this blog, them being accurate in many respects, and getting a large fan base (including partnerships of sorts with other blogs), speaks volumes about his skill, and others. DMZ is the same to me. While they write differently and have differing viewpoints at times, they both know their ish.
BillyJive, I’m not impressed with Silva taking Bavasi’s party line. Here’s the difference to me between what Ibanez said and what Silva said: Ibanez is playing well — or at least hitting well — and he’s not looking for anyone to blame. Silva’s stinking up the joint, and he’s read to point the finger at other people (just like Bavasi).
BillyJive, I’m not impressed with Silva taking Bavasi’s party line. Here’s the difference to me between what Ibanez said and what Silva said: Ibanez is playing well — or at least hitting well — and he’s not looking for anyone to blame. Silva’s stinking up the joint, and he’s ready to point the finger at other people (just like Bavasi).
(Augh, sorry about the duplication. First one had a typo, and I thought I’d stopped it in time.)
My favorite line.
That one really just pisses me off. The Players want to win even more than you do Bill. Don’t sit here and tell us the the players are actually not trying to play their best…ugh MORON!
thank you for being “blissfully real” we have been screaming at bavasi and his piss poor evaluation of talent and what the team really needs…..For the last 4 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BAVASI HAS TO GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And while were at it get rid of the way over the hill and dreadfully wrong 90% of the time…..NEEHOUSE…he is as bad or worse than the team and Bill…..