Sabathia down, Bedard to go
Two things happen now:
– Hopefully, other teams look to Bedard as their second choice
– The Sabathia trade will help set the market for what a top-level starter
The bad news is that the haul the Indians made is nowhere near as good as what the M’s gave up to get Bedard, so the question may well be whether the M’s are better off keeping Bedard at all.
The thing I worry about is whether Bedard has already soured the organization on him (as fragile, not PR-friendly, and so on) and he’ll be moved regardless of whether the return would be better than the value of retaining him, in the same way we’ve seen other players shown the door when the team got tired of having them around.
Fun, fun, fun.
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44 Responses to “Sabathia down, Bedard to go”
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The best that we can hope for is as the trade deadline comes closer teams start to panic and outbid eachother. Hopefully Bedard pitches out of this world and injury free for two weeks after the ASB. Then we trade him and get a decent haul in return.
Looks like the other players in the deal have been identified.
Not a good sign going forward for those in the trade Bedard camp.
I’m on the fence about trading Bedard, but I think the M’s have a small leg up on the Indians on this one.
First, the playoff picture can change a LOT in three weeks at this point in the season, which can wind up strengthening teams’ bids for a pitcher such as Bedard. On a related note, I think the Indians tossed C.C. way too early.
Second, with Bedard, while the team getting him is still not likely to keep him when he hits free agency, they still have him under control for one additional year over C.C. That often translates to a slightly better haul in a trade.
Of course, knowing the M’s, they’ll trade him to Atlanta for Jair Jurrjens and a half-eaten Snickers bar…
What’s a reasonable return on Bedard? Would any team give up their best prospect for him? Could we get one of the Dodgers top guys (Hu, Ebert, Kershaw)? I can’t see that we get a star OF prospect and a top pitching prospect plus a major league all-star but can the net Bedard trades be less than a total disaster?
Jair Jurrjens is a pretty solid player.
Anyways, I think the Cards are gonna panic. The team that they’re tied with for second place in their division and the wild card lead just added the top pitcher on the market. I see them getting desperate and giving us Colby Rasmus, Jaime Garcia, and maybe another player. I know Rasmus is struggling a little this year, but I’d be happy to get a lefty pull hitter who plays good d and hits with power and patience plus a good starter who misses bats and gets groundballs.
Big difference between CC and Bedard is that CC has made no secret of his determination to test the free agent waters this off-season. He is a rent-a-player for the Brewers, while Bedard, if traded, would be good for an extra full year.
By the way, Adam Jones is now hitting .282
Obviously, I’m in favor of keeping Bedard, but if the Yankees, Dodgers or A’s call up about an offer, I listen to them. It will be real interesting to see how this month plays out.
By the way, George Sherrill made the all star game
I remember reading here at USSM that what the M’s gave up to get Bedard was substantially more than what the Mets gave up to get Santana, so it will be interesting to see if what the M’s now are able to get will be significantly less than both those deals. And I mean “interesting’ in the Chinese curse meaning.
DAMellen, there’s no way the Cards are going to trade Rasmus, and I doubt you’d be able to get Garcia for Bedard either. There was a fair amount of concern amongst knowledgeable fans after Antonetti passed on the GM job and Mozeliak was promoted, but Mo has done a good job of filling holes without sacrificing either good prospects or long-term financial flexibility. Methinks you are still bemoaning the fact that your recently ex-GM made the most boneheaded trade in recent memory and you’re hoping/dreaming/screaming that someone will come in with an equivalent offer and rescue you.
Rasmus+Garcia would be close to the package that the M’s gave up for Bedard, as Jones and Rasmus were ranked very close to each other in the 2007 BA prospects rankings (Jones 28; Rasmus 29) despite the fact that Rasmus was a year younger. And Rasmus moved up to #5 overall in the 2008 rankings. In fact the only reason Rasmus isn’t starting for the Cards right now is the surprisingly strong play from all of their OFs this year.
I think a counter-offer to this proposal would go something like Duncan, Reyes, and a middling-to-decent pitching prospect, or perhaps an outfielder like John Jay. How would you like that?
You can take that deal and you can shovel it!
Seriously, though, that would be an awful trade for the Mariners. A bunch of used parts for Bedard? Really? We’d be much better off keeping him and taking the draft picks if that’s the best kind of deal we could get. If the M’s don’t get at least a top prospect for Bedard (like Rasmus, Votto, Hughes, or some sort of solid combo of Andy Laroche and James McDonald or Wade Davis and Reid Brignac, I think we’re much better off holding onto Bedard.
Good for him. He (and the others) might have been sorry to leave Seattle at the time, but it’s worked out for him and AJ.
As for trading Bedard, this seems like the logical time to do it, but man, I can’t see it going well.
This past offseason hurts worse all the time.
M’s are paralyzed? Well, they certainly have effed themselves. If they can keep supporting the current payroll level, a smart GM can dig them out fairly quick, but I’m worried revenues are going to crash and payroll may go south with it. One thing that has to have Howard and Chuck very worried are the number of Season Ticket holders who aren’t showing up for games. People who already paid but don’t bother using the tickets are not great candidates to re-up next year.
11,
what could we get from Philadelphia?
I would think that a year and a half of Bedard would be worth a bit more than a third of that time for Sabathia.
This can be, though, one of the dangers of having a new GM (far outweighed in our case, of course, by the advantages of having a new GM) – he can get back far less for Bedard than the team gave up to get him, because he wasn’t the one who overpaid to begin with. If we still had Bavasi, Bill would be loathe to sell low since it would mean admitting he got fleeced.
I happen to believe that the Sabathia trade, occurring now (so early before the trade deadline), actually improves Bedard’s stock as a trade chip. There is now one less starter available to trade. Simple supply & demand should only add to Bedard’s value at this point.
The Cardinals look like very logical suitors right now. They are in the Central with the Brewers, have some surplus talent at positions we could fill (like OF), and the pitching coach (Dave Duncan) does wonders with pitchers. (Hello Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan.) And the St. Louis atmosphere is amazing for players; most actually feel compelled to do good for the fanbase.
15
Word on the street is that the Phillies would give us Carlos Carrasco, Adrian Cardenas, and possibly Jason Donald. That wouldn’t be a bad group, but I think spack is underestimating what St. Louis would offer a bit, although I could be overestimating too. The reality is probably somewhere in between the packages we suggested.
Oh, and spack, if you think I might be “hoping/dreaming/screaming that someone will come in with an equivalent offer and rescue [me]” then stop wondering. OF COURSE I AM. I will spend the rest of Adam Jones and Chris Tillman’s careers wondering why they aren’t Mariners and cursing Bill Bavasi’s name. This is true for most of the people of Seattle. Nobody who gets baseball liked that trade. We’re all going to be sad about it for a long time. And we’re all going to dream of a way to get similar players back. And let’s not forget Butler or Mickolio. They could end up being solid players too. And Sherrill. That trade was worse than Raf for HoRam.
Are you speaking theoretically, or are you speaking for the Mariners? Because the same crew that was informing Bavasi on talent evaluation is still around. These are the same clowns who thought Carlos Guillen was worth a bag of balls in trade….
it’s been a good year for The Pear
Re: Bedard, a quote from Drayer’s blog, before the trade came down:
“News from the dugout today, the skipper doesn’t think Erik Bedard is 100%. Thinks maybe the back or hip problems have lingered or hampered him. I haven’t seen any evidence of pain or injury behind the scenes, but with him it’s hard to tell. Actually, scratch that. We all agreed that he was much friendlier when he was on pain killers.”
There are a lot of people in Seattle who don’t get baseball….(and some of them still work for the Mariners….)
Well, that was a low-ball counter-offer of course. For a while there, I was hoping that Chris Duncan (whom you could actually use) plus the vetrany goodness of, say, Cesar Izturis, plus Reyes as a *cheap* bottom of the rotation starter (as opposed to the M’s kind) could actually get something decent from the M’s, but then your zany GM went off and got himself shit-canned in merely half of a spectacularly bad season, before he could sling some of his tradely goodness the Cardinal’s way…
But seriously, I can’t see how you will even get as much as the Indians got for Sabathia. Discount say 20% for Bedard not being as good as Sabathia, discount another 20% for the obvious dump combined with the fact that Bedard isn’t viewed as a a premium pitcher any longer in terms of dominance and durability, and then maybe bump back up by 20-30% since he’ll be reasonably priced for the next year an a half, and I get something a bit short of Sabathia’s value (which included two first-round picks in next year’s draft). Conditions, overall, just don’t seem favorable to landing any premium prospect for Bedard. Maybe a ready-to-play young guy with some ability along with a couple decent but not great prospects.
And, yeah, Bedard would fit in great on the Cardinals. The defense there would suddenly make him look like a lot better pitcher again too. But they are quite desperate not to repeat the Mulder fiasco, so are likely to be even more conservative about trading for a pitcher than they should be. I think the philosophy will be to make a couple of marginal improvements before the deadline if the price isn’t too high, or to take advantage if any really favorable opportunities to use their outfield surplus come up, and otherwise it’ll be wait ’till next year when more of the young players like Rasmus, Garcia, Perez and maybe Boggs or Mortensen are ready to contribute in larger roles.
um, did this get talked aout during the game today?
“Bedard has been struck by another nagging injury, this time a sore shoulder that will push back his next start by a few days.
Manager Jim Riggleman said he will skip Bedard on Wednesday in Oakland, instead likely starting Miguel Batista, who has made only one start in the past month after being sent to the bullpen.
Bedard first complained of the sore shoulder after Friday’s game, in which he went five innings in beating Detroit. A doctor did not find any shoulder damage.
“We took him out of the game because the game situation dictated it, but after the game he told the trainer that his arm was tight””
Hey, he was a pretty good Supreme Court justice about 200 years ago. 🙂
Erik the Interview, or Erik the Injury? I loved the Drayer quote, msb.
Well, it doesn’t look like 08 is the year he finally breaks the 200 inning barrier. Hmm, who could’ve seen that coming?
I don’t think he gets traded this year. Too many little injuries. We’d be selling too low. If any team makes us an offer we’ll get crap in return. Any team interested in him is going to be a contender for this year, and therefore won’t want someone that is hurt down the stretch.
And as I’ve stated many times before, the Bedard deal was the worst in franchise history…no doubt about it…
Thanks Bavasi!
Unless a team makes a surprisingly great offer for him (perhaps Bavasi will land somewhere as a consulant), I think they should shut Bedard down for the year. I assume his injuries are real and could benefit from not pitching. It seems like a more positive spin to say we shut him down to let him recover from nagging little injuries, than constantly advertising his problems by bouncing him on and off the DL.
I think they should try to get some value from trading Rhodes and Washburn. Save a Bedard trade for next year when he might have more value.
If they could find someone to take Washburn I would be overjoyed. Even more so if he took Silva and his bloated contract (and torso) with him.
Washburn will be traded…he’s pitched better lately and “has the worst run support in baseball.” We won’t get quality for him, but at least he will be gone…
Too bad the ‘Stros aren’t
conpretenders this year…Wade would gladly hand over a decent prospect or two for Wash if he had them.If Shapiro finds some magic in Weaver, I give up.
Methinks that Shapiro may be “white-flagging” it a bit at this point, and building toward next year instead.
Personally, I don’t think Bedard is going anywhere. But we shall see,
I can’t see trading both Bedard and Washburn during this season. I just can’t see a lot of value coming back, and somebody’s got to take the ball every fifth day for the next 1.5 years. However, I’m willing to be proven wrong, and I’m fine with the team trading either one of them. Put them both on the market, but pull the trigger on just one of them.
Washburn can be replaced by any number of freely available guys.
Alright.. If the M’s can get a deal near the value that the Indians got, I would be happy. LaPorta is freaking amazing… AMAZING. If the M’s can get a player like him… do it.
Buy high, sell low, that’s what I always say. I think we should trade Bedard for whatever we can get, as long as it’s forty-year-olds. Preferably first basemen.
Seriously, the Bedard trade is far from the worst we’ve ever made (cough cough, HoRam, cough cough), but however bad it was, it’s done. That doesn’t justify throwing whatever value he has away.
What will the free agent crop of SPs look like this winter? Besides CC?
John in L.A. said:
I think The Gasman just made a good point on KJR (yeah, sorry, but I was driving at the time, I don’t listen to them any other time), that “it’s all about the ERA with Bedard.”
Why else would he keep taking himself out of games at 99 pitches, come up with these mysterious Carl-Pavano-like ailments that keep him from being The Ace and a Real StandUp Guy and a Leader in the Clubhouse (of the pitchers, anyway), and be quoted in interviews that he hears all the criticism about his “fragility”, the Mariners getting fleeced in his trade, and how he’s looking out for Mr. #1, but it doesn’t bother him?
It’d bother me if the fans of the team I’m pitching for thought I was less valuable than Jarrod Washburn, who at least pitches until he’s gassed.
Another thing: If the “current administration” of the Mariners front office is interested in putting things behind them, they’ll dump Bedard by July 31st if only to relieve themselves of the detritis of one of the worst Bavasi deals.
“I think they should try to get some value from trading Rhodes and Washburn”
Neither one of those guys has any real trade value.
At best the Ms might get a non-prospect back.
The problem for the M’s is that they need to be making deals that net them more than one MLB caliber prospect, and not just Mike Morse level guys. This means LaPorta, Rasmus, or something of that nature. Hopefully they can get Bedard recovered quickly and get his ass pitching at the level that will bring back a good haul by July 31st.
But what’s the benefit of “pitching until he’s gassed” if his pitching sucks? Baseball is not a manliness competition; pitching is about getting hitters out. Anyone who prefers what Washburn has been giving us over what Bedard has been giving us doesn’t understand how the game is played. Bedard’s job isn’t giving good interview, or being a Stand Up Guy; it’s getting hitters to make out. He’s pretty good at that, however fragile the meatheads at KJR think he is (and most of them have trouble getting up out of a chair, let alone inducing ground balls).
That means he’s pitching the Mariners’ way (i.e., they’d rather pitch tough than pitch smart).