Game 124, Mariners at White Sox
Washburn v Buehrle, 5:11
I’m tired of everyone hating on Jarrod Washburn just because he’s bad.
Did you know that if you drop starts where he didn’t go six innings pitched while giving up three or fewer earned runs, he has a 100% quality start percentage? Like the win and the save, the quality start should be your arbitrary statistical measure of choice in evaluating pitchers.
Speaking of arbitrary measures, you may have not noticed that Washburn’s been doing quite nicely lately. Despite not doing anything at all differently — his pitches are the same, he’s slinging them right over the plate as usual (see that great Lookout Landing coverage) and yet the results have changed. The answer is obvious: Jarrod’s doing better in a way we just can’t see in the way he throws, the way the pitches move, or in any other way — so he must be doing something different that we can’t quantify, and that non-quantifiable difference is resulting in quantifiable results. Sometimes analysis has to bow down to analysis, and this is one of those cases.
Furthermore, did you know he’s now throwing a splitter? Yup. Just like Silva was and then wasn’t, it’s a key reason why Jarrod’s success is sustainable, a fact now recognized by others).
How good is his splitter? It’s that good. Look through the pitch logs and check it out. It’s crazy. It’s seemingly logged as a changeup, a cutter, and a slider! It’s so deceptive that it has essentially the same characteristics as other pitches. That’s what’s putting the fear into batters. How can they know if a pitch that looks the same has one of two different names? That’s messing with their heads.
9″ of break on that splitter — that’s more than a fastball!
And what about keeping hitters off balance? Since June, they’ve put up a .271/.332/412 line, where before they were hitting .318/.363/.528. That’s crazy improvement! Sure, you’re going to hear from some people who want to tell you that pitchers don’t have that much control over what happens when opposing hitters make contact, and point you to studies by some Voros guy, or Woolner, or whoever, but I’m going to point you to this:
.318/.363/.528
versus
.271/.332/.412
The results don’t lie: when you look at the season in which the first ten starts are weighed against the second part, Washburn has obviously learned how to control the game. You can make up a theory to explain away whatever, but given two theories: Jarrod’s better since a selected date and now because of reasons, and Jarrod’s better for no reason at all, the view brokered by all those people who hate Jarrod for personal or statistical reasons, well, it’s pretty obvious that the first one’s the right one.
Comments
134 Responses to “Game 124, Mariners at White Sox”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
I got home 1/2 hour ago, and there hasn’t been an out yet.
It’s a good thing that Wash and Batista will be around next year. I mean, without pitchers like them, this game could have really gotten out of hand.
Me, too, Juneau. At least Batista’s are on the ground. Hard hit on the ground, but not deep flies to the power alleys like Jarrod’s.
dsmiley, we won against Minnesota August 4th, thanks to a strong start by Batista (6 runs in 3+ innings).
“You mean “multiple #1 startersâ€, don’t you? We have five number ones on our team.”
You forgot Burke. He’s a #1 easily.
how amazing is it that the Nats could somehow be 4 games worse than the Ms. In the NL, no less.
so, just how much money did it cost to give up those
789 runs?I stand corrected. Batista’s been great.
Yankees, need some pitching?
You forgot Burke. He’s a #1 easily.
This game can only be interesting if Burke pitches.
Yuni selfishly didn’t leave himself on base there.
The good thing about our starters not making it past the fifth inning is, we have four more innings to make up all the runs they give up.
Those nine runs came at the expense of roughly 66 million total dollars. (39 + 27, right?).
Well, yeah, but only about $19.3 mil of that is for this year. A bargain, considering.
I am so effin’ glad that the M’s didn’t just give Washburn to the Twins or the Yankees…..
boy, some smart GM should snap up that Ibanez kid this off season.
Wow. Raul’s batting .300 now.
@108: What about moving Joh from DH to catcher, forcing the pitchers to hit? That would be interesting. And give us an excuse to use Felix as a pinch hitter.
like ruminating about how Jarrod Washburn will lose that day’s game?
Wait — how is it that the White Sox have TWO pitchers who don’t totally suck that they can use in a game? I don’t understand — what do they know that we don’t? Isn’t there a rule or something?
Hard to believe, the M’s are batting .311/.347/.445 as a team in August.
haha, the radio brodcast just said they thought they were in for a short game because of Burhle and Washburn but then they said well you have to get people out. That’s a good point.
HoRam? The Sox must feel some pity for the state of Mariner pitching.
Or they’re just rubbing the Ms’ noses in it.
No way HoRam gives up 7 in 1 and a 1/2. He’s no longer with us.
I understand the fallacy of Baker’s article, and I agree that his analysis was terrible, but I have a question: Isn’t it true that “all fly balls are not equal”? The current system divides all batted balls in play into three categories, but there are harder and softer fly balls and line drives. How do the current statistics account for this? Or do they need to do so? If not, why not?
Jeff S. mentioned this morning that we need a “hit FX” in order to achieve better analysis. How would that help?
Batting practice has begun. I don’t see how we are going to make the playoffs if we don’t start pitching better.
“Riggleman said he senses better times ahead. “We’re going to get it together and get it turned around”–Seattle Times.
“We’re going to get it together and get it turned around.â€
Yes! Playoffs for sure. We can sign Sexson for a little extra punch in the lineup, he is available again.
DMZ – If we use the Baker theory…Lopez is only immobile on balls he can’t get to.
See, it’s refreshing.
Clement’s swinging the bat well. I still don’t see the playoffs in the future.
Washburn and Batista are thinking they are earning their money. You see, if they only gave up a combined 100 runs in a season for a combined $19M…then they are earning way too much at $190K per run given up. By giving up 200 runs they are making a modest $95K per run given up. Those numbers are examples, but you get the point.
Wash . . .
Batista . . .
HoRam . . .
Good lord Bavasi did a wretched number on this team.
All the way back up at #16:
Really? You typed in the address, or clicked a link, for this blog and question why the blogger… blogged?
This has got be getting close to the “not fun” part Dave and Derek have discussed.
Jeff S. mentioned this morning that we need a “hit FX†in order to achieve better analysis. How would that help?
Something that allows us to track velocity and trajectory off the bat, the way we now can from the pitcher’s release, would allow us to better judge when batters are hitting well as opposed to getting lucky.
I didn’t watch the game, but I see that Washburn performed poorly. Given that he has a new splitter that makes him a much better pitcher, I must assume he decided not to throw the splitter in this game. Why would he decide to do this?
“Why would he decide to do this?”
Because long ago Geoff Baker did him wrong, and now he is trying to get back at him?