The ’09 Pitching Staff
For all that is wrong with this team, I wonder if people have realized that M’s have a pretty good pitching staff in place for next year.
A rotation of Felix, Bedard, Silva, Morrow, and Rowland-Smith is solid. Yes, there are question marks surrounding Bedard’s health, Silva’s talent, and how Morrow and Rowland-Smith convert from the bullpen, but there’s risks with any pitching staff, and there’s actual upside to that rotation. Rowland-Smith fills the Washburn role as the back-end flyball lefty who pitches well in Safeco, while Silva should regress back toward his mean (he’s not this bad) and be just mediocre instead of awful, while Morrow joins Bedard and Felix as the guys who miss a lot of bats and get outs by themselves.
The bullpen could use another good lefty, but Putz/Green/Lowe/Corcoran/Dickey gives the team lots of right-handed options. Bring in a guy like Jeremy Affeldt and all of the sudden you’ve got a contention-worthy bullpen.
When was the last time a team lost 100 games and still went into the following season with a complete pitching staff that didn’t need an overhaul to contend? Realistically, if the M’s are going to improve their roster this winter (and that’s TBD, of course, depending on the GM), they just need to overhaul the position players. The pitching staff isn’t a big problem, and for once, we can look forward to a winter where we’re not throwing ridiculous money at back-end starting pitchers.
What do we do with Batista and Washburn? Will we get anything for them?
I guess the last team to have 100 losses without a complete pitching overhaul would be the 2004 Diamondbacks.
Randy Johnson, Brandon Webb, Casey Fossum (who a lot of people were high on four years ago), Jose Valverde, Greg Aquino, Oscar Villereal…
Not an All-Star lineup but they did lose 111 games in ’04.
That said, it’s good to know that the pitching future for the M’s isn’t as bleak as our current record might indicate.
Good summary Dave…a lot of us have been excited about the arms that Bavasi and co. have assembled…now if they could just get some bats…
2010 could be a nice year…
I’ve been thinking the same thing for about one month. I’m not quite so sanguine about being able to enjoy this winter without the dread of horrible free-agent pitcher signings. That all depends on whom is hired as new GM.
The Mariners could easily fill the position with someone who believes that stable rotations require proven veterans who can lead both on the field and off the field. Such a GM would look at the current rotation and see no one providing that combination of success on the field and clubhouse leadership.
Thoughts on bringing Guardado back as a lefty? What about O’Flaherty or Feierabend as internal options for lefty relivers? If we can’t get rid of Washburn in the offseason, RRS can also be added to the bullpen. Or could he have some trade value?
And then in 2010, we can replace Silva with Aumont . . . Oh, wait. Silva’s under contract until WHEN?
Knock on wood. Given the front office’s fetish for “proven talent”, I’m afraid it’s going to be Morrow OR RRS, not Morrow AND RRS.
I love the idea of bringing Dickey in out of the pen and was always concerned they were setting him up to fail by making him a starter. I know he would be more valuable in that role, but the knuckleball is a harsh mistress. By limiting his exposure and using him in relief I think you maximize his effectiveness. Not only does the knuckleball screw with the timing of hitters who have just spent the game dealing with some normal combination of fastballs/sliders/changeups but it increases the effectiveness of the guys who follow him (Putz etc) by making their fastballs seem faster and their breaking balls seem, um, breakinger. Hitting is about timing and comfort and I think suddenly dropping a knuckleballer in to the game for a few innings would really screw with the timing and comfort of opposing batters.
In that same vein I think once Moyer is done starting we ought to bring him back as a lefty specialist. He could pitch for another decade easy, living fat throwing 60 MPH changeups to hitters who just wrestled with Felix for 7+ innings.
Dave, what are your long-term thoughts on Jimenez? When they brought him up, I figured he’d be terrible, but he’s been “okay” so far. You didn’t have him listed as a lefty option. You think he’s terrible? (Like LaHair)
Though I agree that the Felix, Bedard, Silva, Morrow, and Rowland-Smith rotation does look pretty solid, I’ll echo what others have said and state that I’m afraid it will look more like: Felix, Bedard, Silva, Washburn, Batista.
No we will not.
I truly believe that Washburn and Batista will be traded. The Ms will probably have to eat salary and will probably get little to nothing in return, but you have to figure that the new GM will try to rid themselves of all of Bavasi’s mistakes…
I’m afraid I agree with mironos, #10. Unless we get a radical departure from historical precedence, there will be pressure on the GM to realize a return on the horrible investment in Silva and Batista. We’ve seen it with Horam, Sexson, Vidro, Everett, and recently Washburn.
There just seems to be a failure within the org to recognize sunk costs for what they are and move on, prefering to hang on to the last meeger threads of hope.
sure, some bats would be nice but I really wish we’d grow some gloves. Imagine this pitching staff with some good D.
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I’m hoping that the FO lets the new GM clean house if they want to…they shouldn’t be handcuffed by Bavasi’s blunders…
I like how Felix is the only one to avoid the question mark and the ensuing discussion. Like he’s been solid as a rock the last few years…
I would rather not dump Wash and Bautista if we have to pay most of their salaries. The new GM shouldn’t be accountable for them, but it makes little sense to me to dump them and subsequently have an injury among the other 5 guys that has Dickey or Ryan F trying to plug the hole.
Maybe they’ll keep Bautista in the pen if he isn’t needed to start. They can probably cook up a trade for Jarrod that saves face and money.
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Felix has pitched rather well the past two years. It’s not his fault his team can’t score any runs or play defense.
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The Bus and Batista suck. They need to go, regardless of money or pride. We should have at least 7 starters better than them next year:
Felix
Bedard
RRS
Morrow
Dickey
Silva (yes, he is as good or better)
Ryan F.
And Woods is as good as Wash too. Make it 8 guys.
The Bus and Batista must GO!
And you want to pay $9-10 million for insurance?
Sorry, but that makes little sense TO ME. We’re rebuilding and it makes more sense to me to look at other free agents and trades that makes more sense to me. Wash and Bautista’s presence will be pressure to use them in ther otation.
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Hell yes…if they are on the team, they will be expected to start…if they start, we will lose games…
Put Batista on The Bus and send them packing!
We should be able to dump them off on somebody. We all know that Minn wanted The Bus. There were also rumors that Minn wanted Batista as their 8th inning guy (now they have Everyday Eddie) and also rumors that the Mets might try to get Silva and try to have him rebound pitching with his buddy Santana…rumors usually don’t mean anything, but I think it shows that there is a CHANCE we can dump them on somebody…
The question is if the FO is willing to swallow their pride and wallets…
I, for one, hope we never see The Bus, Batista, or Chef in an Ms uniform again after 2008…
But isn’t Washburn still on the team? I have very little confidence that, at his salary, the team will drop him out of the rotation without a more sustained implosion. Get the right GM, and I’ll change my mind on that. I think the odds are better that Washburn pitches most of 2009 for us. Why would we be able to unload him in the offseason (if not taking some of his salary?) at his price? Maybe the 1 year left on the contract will inspire some teams to overpay, knowing the risk is limited? Combine that with a GM who knows what he/she is doing, and perhaps they change the view that Washburn only goes if something can be had in return? At present, though, I am just not a believer that Wash will go anywhere for next year. What am I missing?
I don’t know about this. If we change from what we have now, we will no longer have our staff of aces.
At least we won’t lose that valuable Ace on the right end.
#13:
There just seems to be a failure within the org to recognize sunk costs for what they are and move on, prefering to hang on to the last meeger threads of hope.
That’s not true. The Mariners have been as ready as any team in baseball to eat salary.
I think the situation is a bit different. The Mariners organization as a whole has tended to value players differently from the rest of baseball, resulting in contracts such as the ones given to Washburn, Silva, Batista, Sexson, Cairo, … This appears to me to represent an organizational philosophy; it wasn’t just Bavasi assigning that value.
Now, if a new GM is selected who is a “good fit” with the current organization, we shouldn’t expect those philosophies to change much. After all one of the reasons Bavasi was hired was because he such a “good fit” with the organization when Gillick stepped down.
I don’t know how ready ownership is to make a wholesale change in operating philosophy, with the attendant turnover that is likely to follow. Two months ago Lincold was saying they were ready make huge changes, but when it comes time to actually make a hire they decide that “stability” and “incremental change” is also a virtue.
Actually,Everett was dumped a little over half-way through the first (and only) season he was here. Horam was dumped immediately after being given an extension (WTF). With Sexson and Vidro, I think the team honestly thought they would “bounce back” and be young again. With Washburn, they either think he really is worth what they paid him, or else they’re just too afraid of angering the fanbase by looking like cheapskates trying to dump salary.
I don’t think it’s a problem with sunk costs. The M’s have been willing to eat sunk costs. Their problem has been poor talent evaluation and a broken philosophy of talent acquisition. They’ll have a new GM next year. While history says they’ll hire another old-school veteranosity grit-in-your-eye kind of guy, I’ll hold out hope for someone different. Someone Antonetti or someone Forst or someone Ng. I’ll hold out hope for that until they hire LaCava or Krivsky or extend Pelekoudos.
A good GM hire this offseason opens the door to a pretty good team in 09, and maybe a really good one in 2010. Dave’s right about the pitching staff – Felix, Bedard and Morrow are all capable of 200+ K seasons, and Morrow has been running a 3:1 K:BB ratio, so he might have his control problems solved. Silva isn’t as bad as he’s been, and RRS is a good back-end guy. They need a lot of bats, but the biggest needs are in the easiets positions to find a bat. Having a GM who knows where to look is the key.
BTW, a site suggestions: maybe put a link to the GM-O-Rama post over by the “Pitch to/for Antonetti.” It’ll come in handy over the next fwe months.
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That’s frickin awesome…the burgers on the cards are hilarious…
Saying we had “Five Aces” or numbers 1s was one of the most ridiculous statements in Mariners history…I’m sure everyone who heard it was in tears…
Dump Yuni and find a really good glove at Short (Adam Everett should be available) and that staff looks even better.
JMHawkins and Steve Nelson
Thanks for turning my views a bit. I am guilty of a little results based analysis – ascribing sunk costs and futile hope (the result) to what really spawns from the skill (or lack thereof) in properly evaluating talent.
I had forgotten Everett was dumped half way through his first and only year. It seemed longer than that.
Of course, what this means is this: in the offseason the Mariners will spend $60 mil hiring every big-name crap starting pitcher they can find, while simultaneously starting the “Bryan LaHair is the Answer” ad campaign.
I love the idea of bringing Dickey in out of the pen
As nice as it sounds in theory, it has one major problem: passed balls with men on base. If you can bring him in at the start of an inning, fine, but with your bullpen you rarely have that luxury. It’s great to have a guy who can do long relief and throw everyday, but there is a risk.
As for Washburn, they certainly could find someone to take him if the M’s eat all his salary. Getting rid of him and getting anything back in return is another question (maybe next year at the trade deadline). I could see them keeping him and having RRS and Morrow duke it out for the “rookie” rotation spot in ST, then jerking both of them up and down from Tacoma alternately whenever one of them has a couple of good or bad games. At least, that’s what the Bad Mariners we’ve seen the past couple of years would do. Perhaps we’ll have better methodology with a new GM. (It’s baseball, it’s next year, you’ve gotta be optimistic.)
If the fans and management can take it on the chin for a couple of years an start fixing bad salaries. There are several stars in the minors that will be helping in a couple of years.
Carlos Triunfel, Dennis Raben, Jharmidy DeJesus, Kris Sanchez, Juan Fuentes, Rob Johnson, Mike Wilson, Mike Saunders, Prentice Redman, Matt Tuiasosopo, Andrew Baldwin, Chris Jakubauskas, Phillipe Aumont, Josh Fields (when he signs), Travis Chick,Denny Almonte, Michael Pineda, Juan Rameriz, Jacob Wild, Donald Hume, Travis Mortimore, Adam Moore, Shawn Garrett, Thomas Hubbard, Rich Dorman, Shawn Kelley and Mumba Rivera just to name a few.
I bet there is at least 5 or 6 out of that list that will contribute.
And then there’s the good picks we’ll have next year. Don’t blow up our minor league system for a few vets. Use the Tampa Bay or Florida Marlin model and I think we’ll be fine.
The only free agents we need to sign are veteran role players, to help the young kids and to show some leadership on the field. (Is Mark McLemore available?).
The way to get Silva to regress toward his mean is by overhauling the position players with a view to improving the infield defense.
Should Silva’s new name be “Ace of Burgers”?
Saying we had “Five Aces†or numbers 1s was one of the most ridiculous statements in Mariners history…I’m sure everyone who heard it was in tears…
Would that be tears of uncontrollable laughter or tears of pain?
For Ms fans, pain…for everyone else, laughter…
This would be a perfect opportunity to dovetail with the Morrow thread from 26 Aug, which discussed the overvaluing of closers. If the M’s could break the mold and turn the “closer” role into the “high-leverage reliever” role, that would free up Dickey to take over the following inning in a bases-empty situation.
I realize this is far too forward-thinking for the M’s, but having a knuckleball reliever strikes me as a perfect opportunity to put the theory to the test.
Given that Silva’s mean was set with Jason Bartlett at shortstop and Luis Castillo at second, how much regression can we expect with Yuni and Jose out there?
for once, we can look forward to a winter where we’re not throwing ridiculous money at back-end starting pitchers
Amen. Although the irony being that this offseason might be the one offseason where it makes senses to spend some money on pitching.
Aside from the elite talent hitting the market (Sabathia, Sheets, possibly Lackey/Harden…Moyer), there are quite a few second tier pitchers in their peak years that could bolster the front-middle of the rotations: guys like Garland, Oliver Perez, possibly AJ Burnett…
I think we have all seen that to get a top tier pitcher you have to spend a huge chunk of change. The important thing to remember in getting this shipwreck turned around is developing the talent from within. We already have the big money guys in Bedard, Silva, and Washburn. To get a mediocre pitcher like Silva you have to cough up alot of cash. The rotation looks good going into next year, the new GM still needs to look for a lefty to replace Sherill and get a veteran or two in there. The rotation will be solid providing there’s a healthy Bedard along with Felix, Silva, and a mix of either Morrow, RRS, or feierebend.
The new GM needs to worry about the hitting and defense AND trying to find someone stupid enough to take Washburn and Batista’s salaries…..
“To get a mediocre pitcher like Silva you have to cough up alot of cash”
Doesn’t 2RS’s presence put the lie to that theory?
“The new GM still needs to […] get a veteran or two in there.”
AAAH NO! Silva, Washburn, Everett, Eddie Gascan, Slocumb, Vidro… this is not an organization that has the best track record with bringing in veterans.