The Aardsma Trade
Dave · January 20, 2009 at 3:57 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Seriously, I think Jack is trying to do whatever possible to make sure we write as many positive things about him as we can. When the Red Sox DFA’d Aardsma a few days ago, I wrote a post about how the M’s should make a deal for him, then said “ehh, screw it, it’s a few hundred words on something that isn’t going to happen.”
I even lobbied last March for the M’s to pickup Aardsma, as I think he’s got potential to be a pretty decent reliever. This is the kind of buying low on a guy with a big arm that can pay off in significant ways.
Yet another move where we can just sit back and say “yep, our new GM is awesome.”
Milendriel,
You should not have said that.
Why shouldn’t she? His FanGraphs page shows clearly that Felix el Rey was worth 2.6 wins in the majors at the age of 19, which is inarguably above average for a 19-year-old; what’s wrong with pointing that out?
CCW, his youth isn’t relevant because it means he’s inevitably going to get a lot better — it doesn’t, because pitchers don’t follow the same development curves as hitters do, which I think is the nub of Dave’s point. It is, however, relevant in that it means that a) he’ll obviously have more time in which to get a lot better, and b) as long as the organization doesn’t kill his arm, he should be doing this for a very long time.
Does anyone have a velocity check on Fabian Williamson? Last I heard he was only hitting ~88-89 mph with his fastball. I don’t really care about someone who can miss bats in Pulaski if he doesn’t have major-league stuff, and will always feel just fine about giving up a pitcher who doesn’t have present major league stuff in exchange for one who does.
This seems to back up your point:
Sorry, I meant to include the following:
http://www.soxprospects.com has a scouting report on him that confirms his velo tops out in the high 80s.
What I’ve seen has him in the mid-80s, comparing him to Bobby Livingston; but there’s always the chance that he fills out and throws harder as he matures.
there’s always the chance that he fills out and throws harder as he matures
No, there isn’t, haven’t you been paying attention, age is irrelevant for pitchers (just kidding). Seriously, though, I would love to see a more detailed look at this in the context of pitcher development. On the one hand there are guys who can throw 95-100 mph already at 18, and then there are 18-year-olds currently throwing say 92 that people will claim could get up there as they develop. Does this really happen? When it does, how much of it is physical maturity and how much of it is something else, like improved mechanics?
Mike: because just as a young guy like that can add a few feet to his fastball and essentially have a new pitch (though how often that happens, I don’t know), so a guy like Mike Scott or J. J. Putz can always learn a new pitch and go all Cy Young on you. It’s not that age is irrelevant, but that the curves that work for hitters don’t apply to pitchers.
Young pitchers don’t automatically gain velocity as they get older. A lot of people have just the opposite happen: they throw out their arm and never repeat the radar gun readings they were getting as a teenager. It happens, but it’s not something that you can bank on to a degree that the possibility enhances Williamson’s prospect status.
Barring an unforeseen development (new pitch, crazy jump in fastball velo, etc…), Fabian Williamson is organizational filler with a very, very slim chance to be more.
Which is why dealing him for Aardsma was a great move.