And Now, For Something Else
Dave · February 8, 2009 at 9:13 pm · Filed Under Mariners
If you were going to project the Tacoma Rainiers starting rotation for 2009 right now, it would look something like this:
#1 – Garrett Olson, LHP
#2 – Ryan Feierabend, LHP
#3 – Jason Vargas, LHP
#4 – Chris Seddon, LHP
#5 – Robert Rohrbaugh, LHP
I think the M’s have figured out that LHPs are more valuable in Safeco than RHPs, due to the skew of the ballpark.
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It’s about time, the park’s only 10 years old. Now if we can just develop and use them properly. I know these pitchers have been discussed before but are they primarily finesse pitchers or power pitchers? P.S. I hope also that gone are the days when we didn’t want four lefties in the rotation, so we trade Sterling Hitchcock for he whose name must never be spoken (Scott Sanders).
Wow.
So setting aside the likelyhood that one or more of the list get traded or wash out in ST, what’s the chance that the organization decides it’s not a great idea to have 5 LHPs in the Tacoma rotation and one or more gets sent down to AA just to have a few righties in the mix?
I don’t think it matters if you have 5 lefties in the same rotation. The minor leagues are just for developing talent. If you have 5 talented lefties you might as well develop them.
Is a side benefit that our more promising pitchers long term are not rushed? And to that point, ideally at what level do the Aumonts and Pinedas of the world begin this season?
What a concept.
You’d think that even old school people like Bavasi could have figured that out…
You mean if he had, say, signed a free agent lefty starter and traded for a lefty starter?
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=contracts
I think it’s safe to say Bavasi was incompetent whether your standards are old school, new school, or somewhere-in-between school.
Thank goodness that the Z Administration is here and the Mariners canned Bavasi before he flushed another $100 mil. down the toilet.
I’m hoping too the Mariners realize that patient, left-handed hitters will be more valuable to them in the long run and they draft hitters of that nature beginning in June.
So this must mean that they’re giving up on the “no two lefty starters in a row” theory the old management was trying out last year.
I’m don’t think I get the concept. Obviously the Mariners should skew to a left handed lineup offensively to take advantage of Safeco, but other teams have no such incentive, unless of course their ballpark skews toward left handers. So when a team comes into Safeco and marches out 8 right handers, all of our lefties help us how?
I suppose it is to our advantage that our lefties will be torched with line drives, rather than home runs, but when it comes down to it, I’ll take a pitcher with velocity and a few plus pitches over a generic left hander any day. I will concede when you are trying to fill in the end of the rotation, then perhaps a run of the mill left hander would be marginally better than a run of the mill right hander, supposing the opposing manager doesn’t stack the lineup.
Safeco is brutal on righthanded hitters. Lefties on the other hand have a field day bouncing gophers balls off the cafe windows and splashing them in peoples soup. An average LH hitter becomes a pretty decent offensive threat in Safeco, and a pretty decent RH hitter becomes a somewhat marginal one. (see: Ibanez, Raul, circa 2004-08 and Cameron, Mike, circal 2000-2003 for details).
For years, every second-tier left-handed slugger has been killing the M’s. Eric Chavez is a first-ballot Hall of Famer if you’ve only seem him play at Safeco.
Stack the lineup all you want, RH htiters will do worse in Safeco than LH hitters will. Sure, I’ll take a Felix over RRS, talent trumps handedness, but that’s not the option the M’s have.
Also, I don’t think anyone was trying to allege that the M’s are thinking about running out five left-handed pitchers in a row in the major leagues.
Probably not — although the A’s experimented with this concept for a while last year.
I looked at the Mariner’s Chone projections at Sean Smith’s and I saw, lo and behold, that Chone projects Garret Olson to be our third best starter , with a 4.24 ERA and a value of 2 WinsAR and 9 million dollars (although it’s projecting RRS and Morrow as relievers). That makes him a 25 year old who’s projected to be better than Washburn THIS YEAR – could GMZ and Wakamatsu pull off sitting Washburn and giving Olson his place? 25 year olds have much higher upsides than 30-somethings like Washburn, after all. The last place I want to see Olson is in AAA, unless I’m missing something.
also, I noticed a pretty dramatic difference in the pre-and post trade Olson Chone projections, (almost .70 ERA, 10 fewer hits, 2 fewer home runs, ten more strikeouts). Does Safeco really do all that to a pitcher, even the strikeouts?
Current Fangraphs Olson Chone:
4.88 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 29 GS, 153 Inn, 20 HR, 163 H, 69 BB, 109 K
To Sean Smith’s website’s current Oslon Chone:
4.24 ERA, ? FIP, 29 GS, 155 Inn, 18 HR, 153 H, 70 BB, 119 K
Maybe now’s a good time to pitch my pet idea: 6 man rotation
rd1 rd 2 rd 3 rd 4 rd 5 rd 1…
#1 Felix Felix Felix Felix Felix Felix
#2 Bdrd Olsn RRS Slva Mrrw Bdrd
#3 Mrrw Bdrd Olsn RRS Slva Mrrw
#4 Slva Mrrw Bdrd Olsn RRS Silva
#5 RRS Slva Mrrw Bdrd Olsn RRS
off: Olsn RRS Slva Mrrw Bdrd Olsn
but yeah…
So by “now is a good time”, don’t you mean “now and the 47 other times I have tried to insert the 6 man rotation into discussion”?
Anyhoo, I like that the M’s are playing to their park’s strengths. That is all I have to say on the subject.
Yeah, I think we’re going to start seeing [deleted–give it up already] on decatur7’s posts soon . . .
Seriously, though, I’m glad to see the M’s stockpiling MLB-quality lefties; even without Safeco, that’s a good strategy, so it’s especially encouraging here. I look forward to seeing them in Seattle.
I guess I’m not completely up to speed on this subject. Do the rest of the parks in the league equal out, handed wise, so that our 50% of the time advantage works out to be somewhere around 75% of the time where it is better to have left-handed pitchers than right? Otherwise, you’d think you would win more at home and get torched more on the road, so it wouldn’t make a huge difference. Or are left-handed pitchers generally more effective, given the exact same skill set as a righty?
Ancient Mariner: I spent two whole minutes thinking that the mods had deleted something from your post and wondering what you could have said about decatur7 to earn it.
Re: Lots of lefties. I am very excited to see what a front office that understands park effects can do with this team – especially the lineup.
It is completely mind-boggling that Bavasi never took SafeCo into adequate account, given that park effects are not the exclusive domain of the SABR-friendly: doesn’t everyone know about and consider park effects? Isn’t it just this common knowledge that led to the well-worn fantasy / rosterbation of the Yankees and Red Sox swapping DiMaggio and Williams? (Which may not have been as beneficial as usually thought, but whatever, plainly people knew about to park effects).
Not just for pitchers, either…or for prospects…
I only suggested it the 6-man rotation one other time, and I got no response (and being a noob commenter, I didn’t realize no one cared). Sorry if I came across as beating a dead horse. Back on topic.
In regard to having south paws face (presumably) right-handed stacked line-ups:
Which carries more weight on proejections, the splits (having lefties face mostly right-handed hitters) or the Safeco Field’s park adjustments?
I guess what I’m trying to say is what is going to win out in the long term, the right handers having the ‘split advantage’ and facing a left hander on the mound or the park’s toughness on right handed hitters – regardless of the pitcher?
decatur7, it’s not that no one cares; it is, rather, that due to previous experience with certain commenters, there tends not to be vast patience here with people riding hobby horses, especially of the rosterbation/roster construction sort, and especially if they don’t really pertain to the topic of the post. I will grant that you’re not likely to find many if any folks here who think your idea is a good one, but that’s not really the issue.
pygmalion — too funny. 🙂
seamariners85, the point is that LHP are more effective in Safeco than elsewhere because the park helps them against righties; the platoon advantage enjoyed by RH batters is suppressed by the park, while the advantages the park gives LH batters are suppressed by the pitcher.
sass, I don’t recall the research exactly, but what I remember is that teams that get a higher percentage than average of their innings and at-bats from left-handers enjoy a competitive advantage. Safeco simply increases that in the M’s case.
What’s the story on Chris Jabubaskas? H recall him having some good numbers last year before getting hurt. Is he even a prospect?
Dave-
I take it that you think Gaby Hernandez will be starting in West Tenn again this year?
He is listed in the Future 40 as probably seeing the majors in 2010. Has this been pushed back because of the Greg Olson acquisition?
They have a strong incentive to put Washburn in the rotation to start the season, on the chance that he can put together a few quality starts to set up a trade. Unless they can move him during the Spring.
Robert Rohrbaugh is right handed.
I think Gaby may start in W. Tenn for a little while; his velocity seems like it’s down, and he didn’t fare to well in the AFL. Something could be wrong. That said, if he’s healthy, I’d expect him in Tacoma at some point.
Jakubauskas is a guy the M’s signed out of an independent league, and he’s pushing 30. He’s not a prospect. That said, I have a soft spot for the guy since he’s an intriguing story, and his stuff isn’t bad. Think of him as the opposite of Greg Jacobs, a guy signed as a pitcher, who had a meh MiLB career then went to the indie leagues to become a hitter (and went on to have a decent MiLB career as a corner OF before he took a banned substance. He’s still kicking around the PCL.).
Anyway, Jakubauskas was a decent hitter in a big-time college program, but never really did anything with it. He took up pitching seriously in his 20s it sounds like, and he’s gotten quite a bit better at it. He’s got a great change-up, which he used to rack up some great K totals near the end of 2008. Nobody’s counting on him, and he may get forced out with Olson, Vargas, Seddon, etc. coming in, but I think he’ll get a shot at the rotation based on his season last year.
You could add Justin Thomas to the list of potential Rainiers LH starters next year. He’s been working more in relief recently, but he’s been a starter for years.
Robert Rohrbaugh is right handed.
He pitches lefthanded. Don’t believe the first source you check with.
Robert Rohrbaugh — that’s the source I’d believe (since I haven’t seen him with my own eyes).
Okay, you’re right. I was looking at the Mariner draft history a few days ago and they had him listed as a rhp. I took notice because I thought he was left handed. Then when I saw this I decided to look into it and baseballcube had him listed as a rhp as well, so I did have two sources (I think the draft info was somewhere on mlb.com. Just checked a bunch more though and he’s listed as a lhp everywhere else. Wierd, nevermind.
Also, assume I’m not an idiot. Thanks.
Well, park factor affects all aspects of hitting (Safeco, for example, appears to increase strikeouts, walks, and infield flies while suppressing grounders, for reasons nobody can really adequately explain). But the spacious left field at Safeco will tend to work to the advantage of left-handed flyball pitchers. Left-handed groundballers (or strike-out kings) don’t get as much benefit. Thus Washburn (.82 GB/FB) and RRS (.87) benefit more than Olson (1.0)
Yeah, teams can stack their lineups. But they can’t change their ballparks (at least not until 2012, the earliest the A’s might get a new one). So you can’t control what the other manager does when he’s filling out his card, but you can at least try to exploit the field he’s playing in. Obviously you want to take the best advantage of your home park that you can and then, given the way the unbalanced schedule works, try to exploit the parks of the other teams in your division. Of course for that to work, you’d really like all the other teams to cooperate by playing in parks that have a similar bias to your own.
This is where it gets interesting:
THT has some park factors that look strictly at home runs, broken down by outfield sector (LF, LCF, C, RCF, RF). Starting from there (and throwing out RFK), I averaged the LF+LCF and sorted by that value to get “best pitchers’ parks for left-handers” (at least in terms of HRs). Here’s the top eight:
Safeco Field (91.60)
PNC Park (93.80)
Kauffman Stadium (96.09)
Dodger Stadium (97.16)
McAfee Coliseum (97.48)
Angels Stadium (98.66)
AT&T Park (99.41)
Rangers Ballpark (99.62)
Again, this is strictly home run data, not fly balls or balls in play in general.
Nevertheless, notice that Safeco is significantly more a pitcher’s park than the others when it comes to hitting balls out of left field (all the more reason Wlad needs to be playing somewhere else). Also notice that all the other AL West parks are in the top 8. Granted, the other three are pretty close to neutral when it comes to pitchers giving up dingers to LF, but none of them are strongly biased against them. So we can conclude that there’s no significant penalty to tilting the pitching staff in this way, at least for the purposes of not giving up HRs within the division (and in the most games in the schedule overall). And the AL West is the only division where all the stadiums are bunched together at the top or bottom of the RF or LF lists like this. It’s a opportunity unique in all of baseball. And one that may not have escaped the notice of Blengino and Zduriencik. (It also reinforces the need for more left-handed sock in the M’s lineup, and they’ve clearly noticed that too).
BTW, using the same method here are the bottom 8 parks for right-handed pitchers:
Safeco Field (122.90)
Jacobs Field (122.98)
Minute Maid Park (124.28)
Metrodome (128.67)
Yankee Stadium (131.02)
Coors Field (131.59)
Great American Ball Park (132.32)
Miller Park (133.79)
Put another way, Safeco is the 8th best stadium in baseball to be a left-handed hitter… if you actually make good contact — remember, according to the data in that first link, Safeco enhances strikeouts and infield flies. But it suppresses grounders, so it’s actually a lousy place to be a right-handed groundball king… like Felix. He’s even better than we know.
(This is probably another reason to not expect Silva to do as well here as he did at the Metrodome, incidentally, though losing some weight couldn’t hurt).
Nice work, joser.
Andrew Baldwin, Chris Jakubauskas, Rich Dorman and even Denny Stark have an opportunity to start for Tacoma next year. I also was assuming Gaby Hernandez had a shot to crack the rotation. Also, let’s not forget that Sean White was in the rotation last year.
I’m betting Olson and Feierbend are in the rotation (if Feierbend’s not gone). Rorbaugh will be in the rotation.
Didn’t Vargas pitch in relief in the AFL? I’d be happy if he was a starter, but I’d read that he’d moved over to the pen, and was pitching quite well there.
And Seddon is new. I’m guessing he doesn’t but Jakubauskas, who was on the M’s 40 man at one point.
I see Olson (if he’s not in Seattle as the long man)
Feierbend (if he’s not packaged with Johnson, and traded)
Jakubauskas
Rorbaugh
Baldwin
Not as much fun..
BTW, I went to several Rainiers games last year. Baldwin and Dorman weren’t world beaters, but they were effective at times. Dorman in particular, could take over a game.
Furthermore..
Let’s assume Olson and Feierbend are with the club..
How’s a rotation of the following look:
Olson
Feierbend
Jakubauskas
Rorbaugh
Baldwin
Vega
Rivera
Jimenez
White
Vargas
Kahn
Kelly
I’m gonna miss Jon Huber myself. The guy was good when he was healthy. The M’s also had the opportunity to bring Fruto, among other back.
I think Seddon gets cut. Other then that, I’m excited to see Kahn and Kelly. Vargas, Jimenez (who we know down here) and White are useful mid relief arms. Vega (if I rememeber right) and Rivera are hard throwers with poor control..
I don’t see Thomas and Hernandez starting in Tacoma. I’m bummed about that. I personally like a little velocity in my LHP, so I heart Thomas. Been curious about Hernandez since he was acquired.
I really don’t think this staff is great, but it’s better than the crap that was here last year. I don’t mind AAA fillers, but when there are 5 of them in your staff, then it’s kind of a boring year prospect wise.
Which hitters are coming to Tacoma though? Carp? Moore?? With those two and Saunders, + the addition of Mike Wilson (who you’ve gotta be curious about)… I’m excited about what lies ahead offensively for the Rainiers in 2K9.