Ryan Franklin 2.0
Chris Jakubauskas pitched well again down in Arizona, and on a roster full of pitchers with lousy command, he’s starting to stand out. So, I figured I’d just toss this out there, since we haven’t really written about Jakubauskas much.
No, the numbers aren’t exactly the same, but if you want to know what Jakubauskas’ potential is, Franklin is your answer (those are his minor league numbers, by the way). A strike-throwing guy with decent movement and no knockout pitch that can swing between starting or relieving and counts on good defense to get outs… we’ve seen this before. With a great defense and Safeco Field offering aid, this pitcher type can actually look alright, especially if Jakbauskas could replicate Franklin’s rubber arm.
But, as we mentioned in the post this morning, this is the opposite of the pitcher type that the M’s have been acquiring. There’s practically no upside here – he could be a decent enough low leverage mopup reliever/swing guy, but the organization isn’t really in a position to try to squeeze out the maximum value of a guy whose upside is +5 runs above replacement.
He’s a nice story, and it’s good to see someone in the organization throw strikes and give the beat writers a break from horrible pitching in Peoria, but there’s too many good arms fighting for major league roster spots, and Jakubauskas just doesn’t have enough potential to justify giving him one of those spots in lieu of an arm who could actually turn into something.
How long has the guy had serious coaching? Is there any chance he could pick up a knockout pitch in the way that JJ did? His K/9 doens’t look too shabby, and his HR/9 blows Franklin out of the water. There may be some higher upside arms to look at but those guys can learn as much in the minors as in the majors right now. Unless there is a knockout pitch for him to learn it seems like there isn’t much Jakubauskas can learn at Tacoma.
You can’t learn to have better stuff. With his stuff, he’s not going to develop a knockout pitch.
Those higher upside guys (Aardsma, Delgado, Lugo, etc…) can’t go to the minors. Jakubauskas can. So he should.
So if there’s no spot for him in the majors and nothing he can learn in the minors, should they just try to trade him now to a team looking for a 5th starter candidate, and pick up someone younger who can just be stashed? Someone like the Jays?
I think the best thing he can offer is some quality sound bites of people mispronouncing his name.
Far worse things than that, in my estimate….
There’s no reason to assume that a guy with 142 innings in affiliated ball has nothing left to learn.
Now I’m confused. He can’t learn better stuff and he’s already a good control pitcher, and hes 30 years old. What would they hope that he learns?
If nothing else, I’m guessing the comment mods don’t want Jakubauskas to make the team. Otherwise, we have the second coming of
[Pineiro]
in the game threads.
Now I’m confused. He can’t learn better stuff and he’s already a good control pitcher, and hes 30 years old. What would they hope that he learns?
A knuckleball? Better control? The former’s not likely, but the latter makes sense — it’s not like he’s the second coming of Bob Tewksbury out there.
True, they would not be looking forward to the many permutations of Jackyoubowscass
Hey, it’s your friendly neighborhood Jakubauskas salesman here….
Some interesting claims here.
1) He’s basically Ryan Franklin
Ok, it’s really hard to compare a guy who had such a long track record in affiliated ball to a newcomer like Jakubauskas, but the numbers you’re showing certainly don’t look all that similar. Jakubauskas strikes out more, walks a bit more, and gets more ground balls (and thus fewer HRs). On first glance, they’re not all that similar. Look deeper and… nope, they’re still not similar.
2) No knockout pitch
This is a pretty good argument, but just for reference, his best pitch is a change-up that helps him get lefties out. Yes, like Cesar Jimenez, he may continue to have reverse platoon splits. (You want a similar pitcher, there you go). When he’s disguising this pitch well, it’s very effective. This is how you get 48ks to 14 BBs in your first taste of AAA. Still, it’s not always well-disguised, and I’d imagine he’ll have HR troubles here and there, as he did at times in Winter Ball.
3) Nothing to learn
Hmmm… this is just me, his biggest (and, until two weeks ago only) fan, but I don’t buy it. As mentioned, if he improves his delivery, his change could become a better pitch. Further, if he develops even a show-me pitch to combat righties, he could become a useful guy. I’m with Dave that he could use some seasoning in Tacoma, but that’s not simply because he can’t learn anything. He hasn’t had advanced pitching coaching.
4) Not like Zduriencik’s new hires
Maybe yes, maybe no. The ink isn’t dry on another converted OF. Sure, Delgado can touch 97-98 and Jakubauskas….can’t. But Jakubauskas isn’t some sort of no-stuff control guy who gets hammered if he leaves the ball in the zone – that’s Andy Baldwin you’re thinking of.
In sum, no, he may not be quite ready, and no, he doesn’t have a clearly-defined role to fill right now. His ‘success’ thus far this spring hasn’t looked anything like the success he had in AAA last year, which tells you he could stand to work on a few things. But he’s not worthless, and for god’s sake, he’s not Ryan Franklin.
Good thoughts. I agree, send him to Tacoma and hope he can fill in (yet again, hope he doesn’t have to).
That said, if I understand the rules of the blog, one should refrain from saying things that could get you punched-out at a local bar. Where I come from, to call a guy ‘Ryan Franklin’ with ‘practically no upside’ is kind of a low blow. Do you have ‘roider insider info that nobody else does?
Let me get this straight. We don’t think a guy with a great k/w ratio, a very good h/ip ratio, a 1.22 whip and a 2.98 era is much of a pitcher???? Hmmmmm.
I look at the fact that he started out as a hitter, switched to pitching, came up the hard way through the independent leagues, and has learned how to pitch and hang in there as all pluses, not minuses. And 30 is not old for a pitcher. In fact, that’s right around when many of them finally kick it into high gear.
If he keeps pitching like he did last year and is now doing this spring, he will make this team. And he won’t be the only surprise. It looks like Messenger is going to make the team, too.
I think perhaps you’re misreading the sentiment, but also, h/ip, whip, and era aren’t particularly good ways to evaluate pitchers.
On first glance, they’re not all that similar. Look deeper and… nope, they’re still not similar.
I actually had six hours in the pool of when you’d show up to defend him, Marc.
Anyway, maybe you’re not looking close enough. Here’s Franklin’s 2000 season – the one that got him to the majors.
164 IP, 1.9 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.5 HR/9.
Hey, look, similar. The HR rates are different, but the year to year correlation on HR/9 is way lower than it is for BB/9 and K/9.
This is a pretty good argument, but just for reference, his best pitch is a change-up that helps him get lefties out.
You know who else had a mediocre fastball and whose best pitch was a change-up? Ryan Franklin.
But he’s not worthless, and for god’s sake, he’s not Ryan Franklin.
He’s pretty close to worthless (baseball is absolutely littered with guys like this), and Ryan Franklin is probably his best case scenario. He might not even be that good.
Jakubauskas posted a K/9=23.6 and BB/9=0 while at Everett last year. If he can do that in the majors, he should be much better than Ryan Franklin.
Jakubauskas posted a K/9=23.6 and BB/9=0 while at Everett last year. If he can do that in the majors, he should be much better than Ryan Franklin.
Great, we’ll make sure the other 29 MLB teams only play guys from rookie A ball when Jakubauskas takes the mound.
Also, I’m pretty sure Jakubauskas would KILL to have Ryan Franklin’s career, considering he’s some years behind Franklin at the same age, as he’s not sniffed the majors yet at age 30.
“I actually had six hours in the pool of when you’d show up to defend him, Marc. ”
Ha! So who won, then?
“Here’s Franklin’s 2000 season – the one that got him to the majors. ”
2000 was Franklin’s FOURTH crack at the PCL. He’d pitched hundreds of innings in Tacoma at that point. I’m sure he could put up a similar line if he got yet another shot at the circuit, but I’m not convinced it matters. In his FIRST try, he K’d 5.9 per 9, walked 2.4 and gave up 1.1 HRs.
“You know who else had a mediocre fastball and whose best pitch was a change-up? Ryan Franklin.”
Ryan Franklin had a best pitch? His value, or potential, in the heady days of 2000-2001 was the fact that he threw *every* pitch. No stuff? Sure, but he throws *5* pitches for strikes! He’s working on a combination slider/screwball!
Finally, if the change is Franklin’s best pitch, why don’t we put Cardinal fans out of their misery and tell the man. He threw change-ups on 1% of his pitches last year. He’s a FB/Slider guy, and has been for a long, long time.
This shows up in his peripherals versus lefties and righties. In his career, he’s got an almost 3:1 K:BB ratio versus righties. Against lefties, it’s only 1.25:1.
Contrast that with Jakubauskas who had a 5:1 ratio verus *lefties* last year. I’m not saying that’s Jak’s true talent level, but it seems to indicate a different type of pitcher. Could be better, could be worse, but *different*. He may NOT be as good. But I think we need to look at a different set of comps, and in any event, it’s pretty hard to find apples-to-apples comparisons for a guy who converted to pitching so late and spent so long in the indie leagues.
Was his best pitch. Was. Look at Franklin’s pitch selection compared to when he first came up on, say, Fangraphs, he’s replaced the change with a splitter. Or at least that’s what BIS says. I didn’t see him last year. He could be constructing balloon animals out there for all I know.
Derek,
Fangraphs goes back to ’05, when he threw sliders over 20% of his pitches. Yes, he threw more changes then, but it was still nowhere close to the number of sliders – he also threw a curve ball somewhat frequently.
I’d love to see what he threw when he first came up; I’m pretty sure it was 50% FB and 10% each of 5 other, not-too-effective pitches. Do you know where I can find those data?
I’m not sure I understand what the problem would be having a Ryan Franklin type in the bullpen. When the starter is laboring in the 5th inning and Wakamatsu is looking down at the bullpen wondering who can come in and throw strikes for about 3 innings and keep the M’s in the game, then a control guy without an out pitch is probably a lot better option than a strikeout pitcher that walks a lot of guys.
I’ve seen a lot of guys with decent control but no volocity or an outpitch be valuable role players on winning teams. If we have somebody else in the pen that can come in and throw strikes for 2-3 innings when we need it like RRS, Silva or Wash, well so be it, but I’m not real comfortable with 3-4 high K, high BB clones in the bullpen for middle relief.
I don’t think anyone was recording pitch type data back then, but – and let me put on my cranky old man persona for a second – I watched a lot of Franklin in those years, and the change-up was his best pitch. Yes, he threw a bunch of different ones, and he’s always thrown his fastball/slider more than anything else, but his change-up was the only thing he had that even resembled an above average pitch.
So if Ryan Franklin had listened to you, he could’ve been Chris Jakubauskas beta version 0.1?
Eh. I still say Jak’s more like a righty version of Jimenez. Like Cesar, Jakubauskas could give you league average performance in a long role or something similar, and like Cesar, he’s just not suited to a Sean Green/specialist role – which is too bad, because there are some jobs for the taking in this pen.
Here’s the mighty Jakubauskas’ minor league equivalents for his Tacoma peripherals courtesy of BP:
K/9: 5.5; BB/9: 2.3
Here’s his career minor league BIP tendencies:
GB: 48.4%; LD: 17.1%; FB: 32.2%.
Given he has options, why is he a better choice for the 25 man roster then the other arms fighting for spots?
I liked watching Franklin pitch. He worked fast and threw strikes. Most of the time his games were entertaining and brisk. There are worse things..
There are better things, like winning games.
Terry – interesting BP data, thanks. Eyeballing it, that’d be a FIP in the low to mid 4s, something like that. A touch better than Buehrle’s 2007, worse than Buehrle’s 2008. Is that…. bad?
“why is he a better choice for the 25 man roster then the other arms fighting for spots?”
I think he’d be best served by starting off in Tacoma and working on his deception, frankly. If he’s got a future, I think it has to be as a starter – again, the Jimenez situation is an unhappy parallel.