The Opening Day Pitching Staff
This is, of course, subject to change, but with opening day two weeks away, this is how it looks like the staff is shaping up to me.
#1: Felix Hernandez, RHP
#2: Erik Bedard, LHP
#3: Jarrod Washburn, LHP
#4: Carlos Silva, RHP
#5: Ryan Rowland-Smith, LHP
Long Relief: Miguel Batista, RHP
Middle: Tyler Walker, RHP
Middle: Jose Lugo, LHP
Middle: Roy Corcoran, RHP
Setup: Tyler Johnson, LHP
Setup: David Aardsma, RHP
Closer: Mark Lowe, RHP
DL: Brandon Morrow
When Morrow comes back off the DL, RRS probably gets bumped back to the bullpen, which would force the team to make a decision on Miguel Batista, barring an injury to another one of the relievers. Despite the fact that the bullpen is full of question marks, this is still a team with an abundance of pitchers – when healthy, there just isn’t room for everyone. You have to think that Zduriencik is going to be extremely aggressive in trying to move Washburn if he gets off to a hot start, because this team could use one less pitcher for everyone’s sanity.
It will also be interesting to see just how the bullpen shakes out as the season goes along, especially if one or two of the Chad Cordero/Shawn Kelley/Josh Fields trio of arms force their way onto the roster. Mark Lowe could go from closer to Tacoma fairly quickly if he doesn’t get off to a good start. There’s just very little certainty for any of these guys.
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Nice to get a clearer picture of how the staff will look this year. Do you plan to do another projection for the team’s RS/RA before the season begins since the roster is nearly settled?
Do you think Aumont will get a late season call up?
Is that rotation good enough for .500?
Do you think Aumont will get a late season call up?
No.
How does it work with the salaries of players that are released? Does the team have to eat the remaining salary or is there a buyout clause? The reason I ask is that assuming the Mariners can’t find anyone to take Silva, Washburn, and Johjima from us, would it be possible to just release them and go with the younger players. If they have to eat the remaining salary, wouldn’t it make sense to just take your losses and release them, instead of taking your losses and having them go out and not be productive every time they go out. That way they can let the younger players who need regular playing time to be productive.
What good would come out of a late season call up?
The same thing that any call up accomplishes: reps against major leaguers. Assuming the Ms are not in serious contention, and Aumont continues on his current trajectory, the is certainly a chance that he could get a cup this year.
Looks good to me. My only notes are that Aardsma should close and that we oughta’ have a contingency plan for Silva–the odds are pretty good that he’ll turn in another 4-15 season. What’s the best-case, realistic scenario for him… 12-13, 8-15, etc.? What do we need for it to be worth keeping him in the rotation? Is this simply a ‘warm body’ situation?
There’s no sense in adding Aumont to the 40 man roster, thereby wasting option years, any sooner than necessary.
You’d usually only add guys to the 40 man just for a September callup if they were going to have to be added over the offseason anyway, they aren’t prospects, or they’re guaranteed to be a key part of the team the following year. Aumont fits none of those criteria.
I would say “no”. I mean, really, look at it.
If you add Morrow, and remove one of the bottom three, then my answer would change to a “maybe”.
As has been discurssed previously, for the players you are talking about, the M’s would have to keep paying their salary until the end of the contract. Unless someone picked them up at the minimum, which would then subtract only that minimum from the payments the M’s would be making. So that would only save a mere pittance.
Silva and Johjima are signed to multi year deals, there is no way the M’s would release either of them, and almost no chance comeone would take either in a trade. We’re stuck with them for the near future. The best we could hope for would be a trade of Washburn, who is only signed through the end of this season. Which is why Dave mentioned Washburn in his article above.
No, it is a “might as well let him pitch, maybe a miracle will happen” situation.
BTW, try using something other than W-L to describe pitching performance.
Paul B,
Yeah, sure… What do you need/expect to see from him? Over the past few years his SO’s, BB/9, GS, H/9 have been pretty consistent but his wins have not.
“The best we could hope for would be a trade of Washburn, who is only signed through the end of this season.”
Same with Batista, who is in the final year of his guaranteed 3-year contract.
Of course, including Batista in the same line of thought–i.e. trying to trade him for something of value in return–is probably a good joke, as Dave just pointed out in a previous post how little value Batista has right now.
I suppose it’s better to just let him start the season as the long-man/”6th starter” and see if he has anything left, then either sell high in June or July, or sell low in mid-to-late May by releasing him and eating the remainder of his 2009 salary.
I’m just curious how you narrowed down the bullpen. Seems like both Jimenez and Messenger have gotten a bit of ink, but it appears you like the chances of Lugo, Johnson and Walker better. Also, do you think any of the various Latinos picked up recently (Delgado, Pena, Vargas) are likely to contribute this year?
I personally don’t expect much, and don’t think most others expect much either. What I would like to see would be pitches down in the strike zone, more ground balls, and get his percent of quality starts back over 60% (where it was in 2005 and 2007, rather than the close to 30% he had in 2006 and 2008. At least then the M’s would have a chance to win more than half of his starts (and fans could at least hang about and watch the game rather than leave in disgust in the 4th inning).
In 2006 and 2008 his GB/FB was about 0.8. Even with a fast outfield behind them, he needs to get that back to close to or over 1.0.
Not nearly ready. If he was at Tacoma, sure. But I don’t think he’s had even a full season of pro ball, yet. There are arm strength issues on top of the experience issues.
Paul,
-Excellent, cool, thanks. I think those are realistic expectations/goals.
Speaking of Silva, and media bloggers (in the earlier thread), Drayer has some interesting comments about him (and some of the other Venezuelan players) in her blog (see the “What Now For Felix?” entry).
I know after his appearance in the WBC a bunch of people seemed ready to bring him up and hand him the ball every 5 days and call him th opening day starter, but folks need to pull back their expectations. That was one inning. The dude has all of 55 innings of pro experience.
Oh, you had me confused there for a bit, I was thinking that blockquote came from Drayer, when I’m sure she knows better about Aumont.
What do we make of the fact Mark Lowe is now making multi-inning appearances in Cactus League games ? First, he goes two innings vs the Dodgers, which one could chalk up to the club wanting to get him more work and perhaps relax him a bit more. But yesterday’s outing is strange if the club is considering him to be the closer. He pitched in parts of three innings, and even made a plate appearance to insure that he got enough work on the mound.
I think Fields takes the closer role by the beginning of August.
Re: Lowe, building up arm strength after last season, and his endurance as he fights to get his blood sugar levels under control?
Do you think we could EAT Carlos Silva’s contract? I mean, if he hasn’t already.
Sorry. Bad jokes die hard.
Seriously, though, it almost feels like this team is just sitting around waiting, rather than actually getting ready to play. Wait for Beltre to get traded, same with Bedard, same with Washburn, same with Batista, same with Silva…
I wonder if this is going to implode.
Where does Jakbauskas settling in later on in the season? Perhaps after a Silva/Bedard/Batista move? I have definatly been impressed by him.
You must have missed this post.
I heard that RR-S normal velo has dropped from the 89-93 range from the 84-88 range while hopefully it was just something wrong going on that day but isn’t a velo drop sometimes a sign of an injury of sorts?
Two starts in a row where Rowland-Smith’s velo has been noticeably down. You say not to pay attention to Spring Training performances, Dave, but I think you’re a little off base in that assertion. Rowland-Smith is not a #5 starter right now, and he would be best served figuring out what’s wrong with his arm instead of trying to pitch through it. I hope it’s some sort of dead arm phase, but I doubt it.