Previewing the Minor Leagues
Salutations.
For those of you who don’t know me, I’m Jay Yencich. I’ve been following the Mariners’ minor league system for the past eight years and covering it for the past five, first on blogspot and on Scout.com with Joe Kaiser and Jason Churchill, and most recently on the MVN network. Five years is a long time in the minor leagues, enough to span entire careers and then some in many cases. Over the time I’ve been a fan, I’ve never lacked for things to write about. Of course, part of that is the around 850 games played last year by M’s affiliates alone, but there are other storylines as well.
I’ve observed three changes each in GM and scouting director, all with varying priorities for the international and domestic domains. I’ve witnessed the signing and failing of the first ever prospects from China and Russia, and I’ve seen the Mariners expand their scouting domain to include El Salvador, Taiwan, and Korea, as well as less common baseball places like Brazil and South Africa. I’ve read translations of scouting reports in at least six different languages. I’ve cheered as work visas for international players were reclassified from seasonal workers to entertainers. I’ve hunted down various sources when you couldn’t get a box score for the Arizona League, let alone the Dominican or Venezuelan Summer Leagues. I’ve watched as the draft-and-follow process ended and the new compensation system began. I’ve covered all fifty rounds of one draft (never again) and found enough information to write a paragraph about each player the M’s drafted.
I remember when Ryan Anderson was the Mariners top prospect.
The point is that, if you care to watch, there’s always something going on in the minors, whether it’s as simple as the development of a top prospect or as groundbreaking as a new market of talent emerging. Along the way, you get accustomed to other sights as well, such as an infielder who used to play pick-up with cardboard glove watching his first dizzy bat race between innings or the latest developments in the field of t-shirt propulsion. Dave asked me to come on so I could bring some of that to you guys on a weekly basis with snapshots of what’s going on. For daily updates, breaking news as it happens, and more bulky analytical posts, you can find me at my current home at Mariner Minors on MVN, linked up on the sidebar, but once a week, usually Monday, I’ll be here to talk shop and cover some of the recent happenings.
In the meantime, here are the top five prospects to watch on each roster for the teams starting up tomorrow.
Tacoma Rainiers (Triple-A)
C Jeff Clement
1B Mike Carp
LHP Garret Olson
LHP Jason Vargas
OF Mike Wilson
(Tui bumps one of the last two off when he comes down)
West Tenn Diamond Jaxx (Double-A)
IF Carlos Triunfel
OF Gregory Halman
C Adam Moore
RH Josh Fields
RH Stephen Kahn
High Desert Mavericks (Advanced-A)
RH Phillippe Aumont
RH Michael Pineda
RH Juan Carlos Ramirez
CF Tyson Gillies
LH Edward Paredes/RH Nathan Adcock
Clinton Lumberkings (Intermediate-A)
SS Mario Martinez
RH Brett Lorin
RH Aaron Pribanic
RH Stephen Hensley
CF Daniel Carroll
Rehabbing, MIA, or Not in Full-Season
CF Michael Saunders
RH Maikel Cleto
RF/1B Dennis Raben
3B Jharmidy deJesus
1B Gerardo Avila
I’ll be hanging around today to answer general questions, should the need arise. For more detail than you require on the rosters, I have some preview posts up in my usual haunt.
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Welcome! And thank you for your continued work.
Morban?
Welcome to the fold! Good work. I was impressed with Tyson Gillies and Mike Wilson during my week stay in Peoria, AZ. Both are superfast runners with good throwing arms.
on a sidenote: now I can add the prospects to my MLB 09′ The Show Franchise.
I’ve heard Raben is hurt and probably done for the year but any word on Michael Saunders injury status or what is going on with deJesus and Cleto?
This is awesome! I’m so excited about this–welcome to USS Mariner, and thank you for taking the time to keep us updated!
True enough, he could be a better prospect than deJesus in pretty quick order (and definitely better than Avila), but I was thinking along the lines of guys who we expected to break with a full-season team. Since the organization was so quiet about him during spring training, that made me believe that he was probably ticketed for short-season all along.
Great to have you with us, Jay.
Jay,
Could you possibly grade the quality of these groups to help give a little context of how these prospect groups rate when compared to other teams throughout baseball?
Thank you so much for your hard work! I look forward to your weekly posts.
Thanks!
Where’s Steven Strasburg?
Good to have you with us Jay.
Last year the M’s signed Kenta Suda, an 18 year old out of Japan. Supposedly he has some very promising stuff at the time of signing but it definitely didn’t translate over into his stateside debut. Is he a player to keep an eye on entering this season? Sleeper potential?
So do we know where Maikel Cleto is now? I’d heard that nobody outside the organization knew what happened to him.
Where’s Steven Strasburg?
Uh, I don’t think they count college in the minor leagues. So, being that he’s still at San Diego state, he most likely doesn’t count until Washington takes him with the first overall pick in the draft.
I hear the price that Boras is telling teams is 30 million. Don’t know if the Mariners want to pay that kind of price or not.
Raben’s knee is looking bad, yes. Saunders is still rehabbing his shoulder after surgery on it late last season. With deJesus, I think they just decided that he wasn’t quite ready for full-season ball, or at least I haven’t heard anything about his condition. Cleto, however, is apparently stuck in the Dominican after another crackdown on IDs. Hopefully that’s nothing.
Couldn’t tell you, never met the guy, but Stephen Strasburg is pitching for San Diego State.
I saw Suda up in Everett for an inning last summer. The reports on him were a bit exaggerated, as we were told he sat low 90s and I only saw him hit 90mph, adjusting for the stadium gun, a few times. He’s mechanically sound, has a few little timing things he does in his kick, as pitchers from that part of the world often do, which could be just part of his routine or really disrupting him. He had one offspeed pitch in the mid-70s that had some good sinking action to it, but it wasn’t used much. Mostly, he wasn’t hitting his spots and frequently missed up in the zone, and got punished for it. I’m not especially high on him at the moment.
Jay, this is fantastic! Welcome aboard!
Bah, I spelled Stephen wrong even though its spelled like my dad’s name. Crazy. Last nights defeat is still spoiling life.
Anyway it was just a joke.
Thanks for the intro and quick line-up. Any thoughts on Kyle Parker? RHP assigned to West Tennessee (I believe). He’s an eastside (of the Cascades) kid that attended UW. When I met him this winter he seemed to be in great shape, with a solid head on his shoulders, and he survived High Desert fairly well last year.
Thanks for any info and thanks to USSM for bringing you on.
David
I look forward to deleting your comments for being off-topic!
I kid, I kid. Glad to have you aboard.
Gladly.
Tacoma Rainiers:
Once Tui and Saunders are back in action, you’re looking at a lineup with four potential regulars, if you add in Carp and Clement. Beyond that, the best hitter on the roster is Wilson, who has his fans, but really needs to keep it up for a while before he gets any real consideration. LaHair is in there too, but his last 200 games in triple-A have not been nearly as good as his first fifty.
The pitching staff has a few interesting southpaws and then a bunch of retreads. If I were to order said southpaws in terms of likelihood to start, I’d have it go Olson, then Vargas, then Thomas. They’re all back-end guys, but they could contribute, and the M’s could use lefty pitching. Other people would throw Gaby Hernandez in there, but I’m not a fan, I don’t think he really has the mental edge to bust through.
West Tenn Diamond Jaxx:
This is a team that can do a lot of things well. The presence of Halman, nearly a 30-30 man last year, Triunfel, and Moore make it worth keeping an eye on them, though Halman really needs to make strides with his discipline (worse than Wlad’s at the same stage) and Triunfel has to build on his late season surge. Moore could hit his way into the M’s plans if Clement can’t hold up behind the plate. The complementary parts here are pretty interesting too. Carrera has a good approach at the plate overall, but strikes out just a bit too much and doesn’t have the average ability to hit high in the order just yet. Hubbard, Limonta, and Brito are all solid mid-to-late order hitters for the level.
The bulk of the pitching talent is concentrated in the ‘pen, where you have Fields looking to join the Mariners in the second half and Kahn, who could do the same if he holds up long enough. Pena and Munoz are both live arms who could do something as well. For sleepers, I like Vega, who trended positively nearly every month last season with his K and BB rates, and Orta, who ran an insane 38/4 K/BB in 28.2 innings in Venezuela this winter. The rest aren’t quite there yet, but have a few things going for them.
High Desert Mavericks:
Rotation, rotation, rotation, and while I’d prefer that’s where Aumont be, the group they have isn’t bad. JC Ramirez follows the Soriano profile, Pineda has reportedly added a couple of MPH to an already solid fastball, and Adcock, at least has the power curve going for him. Paredes could turn up here too, but his motion is genuinely wonky, so he may work better as a reliever. Hume could really surprise here if he can stay healthy. The rest of the group is mostly reruns, but Wild and Mortimore could become okay relievers.
The lineup has more returning players and is pretty weak overall. Gillies is the most exciting hitter on the roster for his speed and contact abilities. After that, everyone has some significant flaws. Peguero makes Halman look like he has a plan at the plate, Dunigan’s power/speed combo is overshadowed by horrible contact skills, Scott can’t hit on the road, and Liddi hasn’t done much in his 1000 minor league at-bats to date. Colina may be the best hitter after Gillies, and that’s really not saying a whole lot.
Clinton Lumberkings:
Another group with a solid rotation, which could be entirely filled out by ’08 draftees in Pribanic, Lorin, Hensley, LaFromboise, and Kasparek, which is pretty much how they’d come out on the radar gun too. The first three could use some work on the fundamentals though, and Hensley and Kasparek have had elbow issues in the past. Watch for the return of Gallagher once he’s healthy too. Jimenez and Suriel could both be starting or relieving, but neither are exceptional. Nation is probably the closer.
Mario Martinez is the best hitter on the roster and it’s not close. He has average and doubles at present, and solid D. The rest will come, we hope. Carroll has the best “motor” of really anyone in system, but needs to work his way back after a hand injury. Almonte has present power, but laughable contact skills. After that, you have Savastano, who doesn’t really have a position yet, and maybe Fuentes and Howell, who can at least give you high average. The last three are probably going to be pretty consistent, but have varying ceilings.
This is good stuff! Looking forward to it.
I’m really happy to have Jay on board. He’s going to do a great job with these, and I think you guys will enjoy having him around.
For those wondering, the Future Forty isn’t going away. Jay and I, along with Marc W, will be doing monthly minor league roundtable discussions that will be posted as content when we update the FF.
Overall, this should significantly improve our minor league coverage. Hope you guys enjoy it.
Now, more than ever (i.e. with Zduriencik on board as GM), having a constant minor league presence will be a great thing for USSM. This is a perfect marriage.
Dave, I’ve been meaning to ask you about the Future Forty, and maybe this is the place:
Your WAR rating for each player is if they “fulfill their potential.” Obviously, that’s not a “probable” projection. I’ve been trying to think of this in percentile terms, however. Is this like an 80th percentile projection for each player? Yeah, they could be better than that, but really, we should expect about 1 out of 5 guys to hit that potential?
And Jay, thanks for coming around. This is great stuff to hear. Odds are good it’s going to be a “meh” season in Marinerland, so it’s nice to look for hope in the farm system.
This is great news for USSM, both because of the quality posts we can expect from Mr Yencich and because this may take some workload off Dave.
And especially because we can now expect regular updates on the latest developments in the field of t-shirt propulsion.
Thanks for the update, Jay! I’m living in Montgomery and the only time i get to go see a mariners game is when the Diamond Jaxx’s come (friday!!) or when i travel down to Tampa to catch them then (August) I really look forward to your future posts on the AA team.
Yea, this is a great pickup. Very Zduriencik-esque… Welcome Jay!
I guess that means we’ll see Jay in the USSM bullpen in a few weeks.
Are you guys planning to keep the discussions Ms centric only or will you talk a little about the other systems in the AL West as well?
Welcome Jay, I’m looking forward to reading more.
You have Triunfel listed as “IF”. Where do you see him ending up? Is he a SS, or is going to move to 2B/3B in the Majors?
I’m definitely looking forward to reading those roundtable discussions. I’m particularly interested in where you guys disagree in prospect evaluation/projection and where those disagreements come from.
It’s like good just got better. And then added sprinkles.
Looking forward to the next future 40 even more now.
Jay-
First things first…welcome aboard, always glad to have more great analysis/info on Mariner minor-leaguers (as I have been a fan since the likes of Brent Knackert looked so promising)…I have some questions for you, but I’ll try to scale them down.
1. On the AZL Mariners roster, I notiuced a few names for which I’ve never gleaned any real reports on…guys like Luke Burnett, Yao Wen Chang, Jeroen de Haas and Colin Buckborough. While I know Buckborough didn’t impress anyone last year, is there anything you know about the likes of Chang and de Haas for us to get excited about?
Or is it simply a matter of too little experience stateside for anyone to project just yet?
Secondly, I noticed Gabriel Noriega to be at a pretty low pro-level- but is he the kind of guy that could be “helium”? I have some friends (including Jason Churchill) who are quite high on him. Does he intrigue?
Thnks for your thoughts in advance.
Jharmidy DeJesus has to make the majors just for the fun of his name. It’s like Jumpin’ Jehosophat.
More seriously, first, welcome, Jay, great work.
Second, other than Triunfel, who here really has a shot at being a full-fledged major league superstar?
Jay or other who knows…
Did the M’s send Patrick Ryan back to the Brewers, or is he on the DL?
When I went to the USS Mariner get together. They stated that they were going to limit the pitchers to just 3 pitches. They also were going to have a quota for how many curves, chageups ect.. and even if a guy was pitching lights out with his fast ball he would still have to get his other pitches in. They also said they were not going to be as strict on the 100 pitch count think. I am looking forward to seeing if this is followed through by you observation and information.
C Cheetah:
Ryan’s on West Tenn’s roster.
It’s STILL really weird that the M’s drafted a player who also happens to have my name.
I look my doppelganger up occasionally on milb.com and I’ve seen that apparently he’s something of a speedster, but I don’t remember his numbers being particularly gifted with the bat. I assume playing Center means that “I” have a decent glove?
It’s STILL really weird that the M’s drafted a player who also happens to have my name.
I hear you there, Daniel. My name’s Jared Thomas, and the M’s drafted a LHP out of Oakland U. a few years ago by that same name. Further compounding the coincidence, he and I were about the same size (although I throw right-handed).
THAT Jared Thomas shot through the system at first, and I was wondering when I would start fielding the questions. Then he quit baseball to become a dentist, from what I heard.
More than that, I have a brother named Justin. And another Justin Thomas is trying to crack the M’s big-league roster now. Weird.
As for YOUR namesake, I have heard that speed is his primary asset, but that he is above-average defensively- doesn’t always get great reads off the bat but has the speed to make up for the occasional bad route.
Great to have Yencich on board. I remember the day I called you to see if you could track down info on Jermaine Brock:)
Welcome old friend!
Good stuff all around, but he hasn’t quite put it all together yet. He was struggling against some minor injuries at the end of last season, but I’m hoping that’s nothing that’s going to hold him back in the future.
They’re going to play him all around this season. His arm would sort of be wasted on second, but they’re still trying to figure out if he’ll hit enough to move to third, and with Martinez and deJesus already there…
Chang’s stuff was reported as being slightly less than that of Suda initially, but he struck out quite a few in limited time. Effectively wild, in a word. He was reported as having a 92-3 fb and an assortment of other pitches. I don’t know how they have narrowed that down for him yet. de Haas is tall, good downward plane I imagine, don’t know much else about him just yet.
I’m a fan of Noriega, but glove-first guys are no longer in vogue as the trend has been to find guy who are athletic enough to both hit and field at superior levels. I think that works against him, but he’s easily the best SS in the system, it’s just a matter of getting his offense to the point where it’s good enough.
Latin American names generally win. My favorite is Jetsy Extrano, who could make a short-season club this year, and Ambioris Hidalgo is a good second. The best name among the past year’s acquisitions was Westlonder Marcelino, an enormous corner infielder.
Halman, but he has a lot of work to do in his approach. The big name pitchers in High Desert are also probable, but Triu is probably the best bet right now.
Observation may be tricky; I live in New York now, but I may make it back for a few games in late August.
You have a decent glove, certainly, in part due to the high motor. You also have a solid arm, due to refusing to stop playing catch even while you had your arm in a cast. You get your uniform dirty, make everyone around you better and handle a bat pretty well, but your development may be hindered by playing too hard and getting yourself busted up. Good luck with that.
“While I know Buckborough didn’t impress anyone last year”
True, but I (who am not J) think he’s got a decent shot to move up a bit this year. He showed up late last year, but had enough talent that it was something of a coup for the M’s to sign him. He’d been on the national scene as a HS guy, basically from age 14 (despite playing in Canada), and while his development sort of stalled, I still have high hopes that he can move quickly in the low minors. After that, it’s anybody’s guess; I don’t think he has the raw stuff of a lot of the other guys, but we’ll see.
BTW, I’m sort of surprised they aren’t pushing DeJesus to Clinton. I know intellectually that Bavasi is gone, but I see something like this and realize how conditioned I am to think that if a kid shows a bit of power in the NWL that he’ll be pushed to the MWL as a matter of course.