Game 22, Mariners at White Sox
11:05 our time, FSN. Bedard versus Floyd.
For me, Bedard’s been one of the unexpected pleasures of the season. I looked forward to seeing the improved defense, and Felix’s development, Beltre, the interesting possibilities of Branyan and the other smaller moves (and my appreciation for Ichiro! is so well documented people complain). But watching Bedard these last few starts, I feel like I’m a little closer to understanding why the previous regime made the trade for him. When he’s working it, his stuff is tremendous, strikes with great movement only a little bit away from unhittable.
If you believed that your team was one good starter away from winning a pennant, and you’d need another top-shelf ace to get through the playoffs, well, I get it. I do. It’s still a terrible trade, but I sympathize in a way I didn’t last year. Part of it’s likely that we didn’t get to see much of this version last year, but it’s been great, and I hope he keeps it up today.
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Despite Kelley, and the final numbers not showing it (to anyone who didn’t watch the game), that was still a good start for Bedard… And I bet Wak is thinking he might have left him in a little longer right about now.
Does Blowers know the Tracer is the worst pitch tracking widget used by any broadcaster? They’d be better of relying on Pitch F/X. Or Gameday. Or licensing ESPN’s K-Zone (which has great depth…wow, 3D technology…from the 80’s!). Just stop using the damn Tracer. We don’t care. We know it’s BS.
Mariner’s youthful fastball-slinging bullpen– Say hello to a major league lineup that can swing the bats.
He’s a major league ballplayer and watches every pitch in person. I’m sure he knows that it’s crappy. He works for the company that uses it though so there isn’t much he can do. What is he supposed to say, “Well the pitch tracker calls it a strike, low and outside but I’m going to go off of what I think the K-Zone would say because it has great depth and call that a ball.”
!@*% this bullpen.
Really? I have watched the entire game so far and it looked like Bedard struggled to throw strikes throughout and was consistently in trouble. And if anything Wak is probably wishing he would have taken him out after the first hit in the sixth… not left him in longer. That might have been a good start for Silva, but not for Bedard.
The tracer is based on Pitch F/x data.
And, I’m sorry, but you thought this was a good start for Bedard? Three walks and two hit batters in five innings weren’t a fluke – he had no command of anything.
Jimmy/Dave-
That’s actually what I meant– I thought he hung in there pretty well given it wasn’t his best stuff today. He left with 1 run on the board.
Yeah, he definitely did not have his best stuff. You could tell from the first by the way he was rubbing the ball and the look on his face. I’m sure the cold weather had a lot to do with it.
Well at least they get a break this weekend with the A’s coming to town!
*cringe* Here’s Yuni…
I shake my head every time they show that Yuni’s OBP is lower than his BA.
Dave,
Yes, I do. I don’t think it’s what we consider a “good start” from Bedard because we want him and Felix to go 7 innings while giving up no more than 2 runs and striking out 9 and walking 1, maintaining a GB/FB ratio of 2:1 (if not better), but when you throw 25 pitches in the first inning and never break 15 for every inning thereafter–and the “two hit batters” are actually the same batter hit twice (Quentin)…
I’m not saying it was great. I prefer to see Bedard go 7 with those stat lines. The second HBP on Quentin was also one Bedard’s nasty curves that hit his back foot, even kicked out the opposite direction. I didn’t see the first one.
He left two on, but he threw less than 90 pitches and kept the Mariners in the game. He gave up 1 run–on a homerun! (Yes, his defense has a lot to do with that, but that’s what they’re paid for.)
Was he the “second ace” that we traded for? No. Did he give us a start that we should respect and even win on? Absolutely.
14/16 pitches for Lowe so far were 2SF. Two curves, neither of which were a strike.
It’s bath time, Brent …
Cordero and Johnson can’t get to the pen soon enough
oh look another “wild” pitch gets by Johnson.
Rob Johnson sucks at catching things.
Hopefully that doesn’t affect his job performance…
I’ve always thought catching the ball was overrated in a catcher. I mean, everybody knows it’s all about how well he “communicates” with the pitchers. /sarcasm
Did he give us a start that we should respect and even win on? Absolutely.
Sorry, but no. This is why results based analysis is dumb. His FIP for the start was 7.60. This was Silva-level suckitude.
We let one slip away today.
We all knew, though, that this was going to happen with unfortunate frequency this year–we have a high risk/reward bullpen and an inconsistent at best offense.
The part of me that wants to imagine us contending for the AL West crown and a playoff berth this year is upset.
The part of me that is hoping we’ve improved enough to end up the year .500 isn’t as angry.
Go M’s–it’s still better than last year.
It seems to me the Mariners are either one bat or one starting pitcher away from being a legitimate playoff contender (even if the Halos were healthy).
So either Silva returns to his pre-mariner form or gets “injured” and we go with a rotation of Felix, Bedard, Wash, RRS, Jak.
Or we make a trade at the deadline for a bat. OR better yet (and this is very possible) one or more of the following happen: Griffey/Beltre/Gutie/Lopez’s bats all come around as they will eventually; Balentine starts hitting to his potential; and Joh returns to his pre-last year form with the bat.
I think two of these three are likely with the question mark coming with Balentine. He’s looked comfortable against a steady diet of sliders/changeups/curve balls this year. Nobody’s giving him any fastballs right now and he’s not having trouble with it as in previous years.
We just played three games in less than 24 hours on the road against a pretty good ballclub, and were in all three the whole way, even though we ended up losing two. The manager has started to see that Wlad might be a useful player and Beltre is pulling out of his slump. We went 3-3 on a grueling road trip against two teams that won their divisions last year. I have tickets for Friday’s game. I’m pretty happy, all things considered.
Breadbaker – I completely agree, couldn’t have said it better.
Considering most here felt this was a 76-78 win true talent team, why wouldn’t people be okay with the M’s going 3-3 on any road trip this year?
And… I hope Friday is a good game because I have tickets too.
In light of the big cut in payroll this year, don’t the M’s have money to spend on a deadline (or earlier) trade if they’re a contender? I assumed the payroll cut was based on the belief that this was a rebuilding year, so if they’re in it, doesn’t that mean they might be willing to take on some money and be a buyer at midseason (or now)?
Or does the state of the economy change the equation?
Makes those of us that are holding our collective breath (aka most of us) worry that he’s injured again.
Good pitchers have bad days. It happens.
No we didn’t. Because Bedard’s FIP was miserable, so we clearly should have lost. /sarcasm
Look, Dave, I get that results-based analysis is a lousy way to look at things. But every once in a while, you get outliers from the statistics in the results. This game by Bedard was one of those outliers–the results didn’t line up with the stats. And when that happens, you have to ask yourself why your bullpen gives away the game when he only gives up one run.
The answer is that this start isn’t as terrible as the stats make it look.
I watched the game. Bedard sucked. No stats needed.
The “no runs = good!” mentality is wrong more often then you think.
By the way, the whole “he only gave up one run” thing… he left runners at first and second with nobody out. The run expectancy in that situation – 1.573. You don’t get to blame his runs on Kelley just because he had already left the game.
Good thing I’m not saying that. I’ve been over this issue before on other threads. The run expectancy was high. But the pitcher on the mound is responsible for recording outs. He was brought in to prevent those runs from scoring. This is the purpose of a bullpen–to relieve (whadday’know, a relief pitcher!?) the starter and be responsible for the game from that point. What I maintain is that both pitchers are responsible–Bedard for putting them on base and generating the higher leverage situation, Kelley for surrendering those runs (without recording an out–both scored before 1 was away).
No, it’s not. It’s a good thing to prevent the opponent from scoring. This is the basic premise of the game–you get more, you win. Did Bedard prevent it? He certainly had you biting your nails more than once in his 5+ of work, but did any of those runs score? No. He left them on base. That’s something you want to do. Would it be better that they never reached base? Absolutely, and Bedard did a horrible job of that.
I’m all for stats analysis. I track games on Fangraphs and argue with people about fielding percentage versus runs saved, range factor, et cetera. But at some point you need to ask whether these stats are blinding us to the simple observation that a runner left on base is a runner who didn’t score. If the runner didn’t score, I will take it. Bedard did that. For five straight innings he did that.
Did he do it well? That FIP clearly says otherwise. The argument here isn’t “Did Bedard pitch to Erik Bedard levels?” (That answer is no.) The argument here is “Did Bedard keep the White Sox to one run, allowing the Mariners to keep the lead?” The answer to that is “With the help of his defense doing their job, yes.”
I feel like I’m coming off as a Bedard apologist, trying to excuse him for a 7.60 FIP. I’m really not. I’m just incapable of understanding how “no run = bad!” in this context. I really wish Bedard could have posted an FIP of 1.20 over 7 innings. I want him to do that. But I am seriously lost as to how people say “Oh, Bedard blew that so much.”
Kelley for surrendering those runs (without recording an out–both scored before 1 was away).
Now you’re just making stuff up.
“Did Bedard keep the White Sox to one run, allowing the Mariners to keep the lead?”
No one is arguing the factual results. You’re just taking factual results and then making judgments about his performance based on the end product, not the process.
But I am seriously lost as to how people say “Oh, Bedard blew that so much.â€
He pitched like crap. It was one of the reasons we lost. How hard is it to admit that?
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Its the end of April. The team is 4 games over 500. They lead the division by 2 games and 3 in win column. So for those of us who enjoy nit picking.
Just ,for a little while, enjoy what has happen.
What a difference a month of games makes
hark,
The only way you could say Bedard was good today is if you can prove that Bedard has control over his own luck. Whenever a pitcher allows 11 base runners (not counting errors) over 5 innings, he is not pitching well no matter what the scoreboard says. He had no command and the Sox had no issues hitting his strikes and taking walks off of his poor command. He could have had identical stats but had given up 4 or 5 runs and no one would call Bedard unlucky (btw your assertion that the other 2 earned runs were on Kelley is absurd). Bedard got relatively lucky, and hopefully in his next start he is back to form.