The Glaring Weakness
13-9, first place in the AL West at the end of April. Everyone in Seattle would have taken that if offered at the beginning of the year. The first month saw more good than bad, and the M’s have put themselves in a position to be contenders for the division this year.
As contenders, then, the requirements change a bit. If you’re serious about winning, then you don’t get to wait until problems manifest themselves as huge black holes before you fix them. You have to be ahead of the curve, acting before disaster strikes rather than trying to react after it sinks your season. Contenders have proactive mindsets when it comes to shaping their roster. So, if the M’s are going to take a run at the AL West this year, they have to be willing to adjust some preseason plans in order to maximize the team’s chances of winning.
For me, the biggest glaring flaw with this team is the quintet of right-handed bats that all have the same basic approach at the plate. Adrian Beltre, Jose Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Franklin Gutierrez, and Kenji Johjima/Rob Johnson occupy five positions as everyday players, and they’re all cut from the same cloth – right-handed, aggressive gap power guys who can hit a fastball if you make a mistake but are more than willing to get themselves out by chasing pitches out of the zone. There are different levels of abilities within these five, but they’re all the same type of hitter. And they all struggle to hit right-handed pitchers, especially righties who have a decent sinker/slider combination.
It doesn’t even have to be a good pitcher. Jered Weaver and James Shields shut us down, but so did Rick Porcello, Edwin Jackson, Bartolo Colon, and Trevor Cahill. When the M’s run into a right-handed sinker/slider pitcher, they’re in trouble, because odds are they aren’t going to get much from the Beltre-Lopez-Betancourt-Gutierrez-Joh/Johnson part of the line-up.
That leaves an enormous amount of pressure on the four LH bats, one of whom isn’t much of a hitter. Two of the LH bats are vulnerable to left-handed relievers as well, so our offense can be fairly easily neutralized by any team with a right-handed starter and a halfway competent left-handed reliever. That’s a big problem.
In addition, the entire bench is right-handed. If any of the four left-handed bats need a day off, they get replaced with a right-handed bat. If you want to inject Balentien into the line-up to add some more power, you’re simply adding yet another hitter who struggles against that same pitcher type. The M’s just have too many right-handed, free-swinging, fastball-oriented hitters.
If they want to win this year, this is going to have to be addressed. One of the five is going to have to surrender their everyday spot in order for the team to get a more patient left-handed bat in the line-up and give the offense some balance.
What are the options? I see three, personally.
1. Try to trade for a middle infielder who bats left-handed or switch-hits. There aren’t a lot of them, and most of the good ones just aren’t available, but you might be able to talk the Braves into a deal that involved Jose Lopez and Kelly Johnson. Maybe. Probably not, but it’d be worth exploring, at least.
2. Bring up Jeff Clement and give him significant time behind the plate. This is almost certainly not going to happen, as the M’s have made a conscious decision to value defense over offense behind the plate. If Clement can’t get out of Tacoma when Johjima’s on the DL, he’s certainly not going to take over the job when both Joh and Rob Johnson are healthy. We can complain about this one all we want, but Clement doesn’t have a future behind the plate with this organization.
3. Trade Beltre, move Russ Branyan to third, and replace him with a left-handed hitting first baseman. This one is extremely unlikely and probably wouldn’t work anyway, because Beltre is one of the reasons this team has a chance to make the playoffs. But, if we’re throwing out ideas, it’s at least in the realm of possibility. As a free agent at the end of the year, the M’s could conceivably get an offer for him that they felt was worth pulling the trigger on, and then attempt to patch the hole they just created by acquiring someone like Nick Johnson and shifting Branyan across the diamond. It’s almost unheard of for teams in contention to make radical shifts like this, which would involve getting away from the defense-first orientation of the roster, but it’s at least possible. A ridiculous longshot, yes, but maybe one worth exploring if the right situations present itself.
As you can see, of the three options that I can come up with, two of them are basically non-starters. That leaves the M’s shopping for a middle infielder who can bat left-handed. That doesn’t seem particularly likely either, honestly.
That’s why this is such a problem. It’s not easily resolved. This team was constructed poorly by the last administration, and it leaves the current front office in a predicament. Perhaps the best test yet of Jack Zduriencik’s abilities as a GM will be to see if he can solve this rubix cube.
Some people have been talking about Carl Crawford, and Dave, you wrote at Fangraphs about how expendable he is. How is the catching situation in the Tampa system? I should also ask, is it just the Mariners who view Clement as a 1B, or could we still peddle him as a C prospect?
All sorts of crazy things happen in the playoffs, and good teams get left out of them all the time. Getting to the playoffs should be the goal of any franchise, and while I don’t want the Mariners to do anything that will harm the long-term health of the team I don’t want to them to give away a chance at the post-season.
What about picking up Geoff Jenkins and dropping the 12th pitcher? Jenkins can play LF against righties and can be lifted for Gutierrez or Chavez in the late innings when a lefty comes in. He would come in at league minimum making him no risk from a financial perspective.
What about the possibilty of signing a gritty, veteran, left handed bat that can play second base/outfield? Ray Durham?
Also I am really tired of this organization holding essentially 5 first baseman in both Seattle and Tacoma. With the conversion of Clement that would give us 6 (Branyan, Sweeney, Carp, LaHair, Shelton and Clement).
They have no where to put these guys to get them up anytime soon and this makes the need for a left handed middle infielder even more clear.
Griffey was one of my major baseball heroes but how nice would it be to have Abreu hitting in the middle of our lineup. It’s nice seeing him back in a m’s uniform but it would have been nice if that deal would have worked.
I’ve read Joyce and Zobrist’s name in this blog..
What would it take to acquire the two? A LH OF and IF to work into our rotation. I don’t think we can do this now, but I like this acquisition in July.
You may have already addressed this, but assuming Clement could play league average D at 1B does he have enough bat to play the position?
Is he a better hitter than Casey Kotchman, but somewhere below Teixiera?
Is the simple – though impossible – solution to call up Clement and sit Griffey?
Swapping out a LH bat for a LH bat doesn’t help the problem at all.
If we’re strictly talking short-term winning: I think we should bite the bullet and re-acquire Asdrubal Cabrera from the Indians. I think it could be done in exchange for a guy like Jason Vargas.
Cabrera’s price tag isn’t the moon, and he’s more of a bet to help at the ML-level right now than Valbuena.
I frankly think we can win both this year and over the next few years. But, if I’m wrong and you absolutely have to sacrifice one, I say sacrifice this season.
I want a winner as much as anyone, but I’m willing to wait for it a couple of years- as a logical progression of long-sighted, smart moves made in 2009 and 2010.
But this org has char-broiled its future several times in its history- for the sake of “winning now” and the potential financial profits a playoff run produces.
I’m just really hoping the short buck isn’t all Jack Z has in mind.
And oh, yes….bring up Clement. Regardless of whatever defensive appellation suits him best, he’s a bat first and foremost. He was drafted and developed as a bat, a bat is what he is.
And that lefty bat needs to be knocking in runs and getting extra-base hits for the big club.
BTW, over 70 ABs Doyle is hitting .343 with an OBP .471, SLG .500, OPS .971. The guy is just murdering righties. He’s got 17 BB. I know I’m tilting at windmills here, but I’d love to see him get one more shot at playing LF for us.
He’s playing in AAA in Mexico. I’m not sure someone of his health disposition should be in Mexico right now.
I feel about trading Beltre how some here felt about the possibility of trading Ichiro a while back. If we’re essentially making a lateral move or only a slight improvement by trading him, and if there’s also a lot of risk involved, we should avoid it. I’ve become attached to watching him play 3rd base, and like losing Ichiro, it would make watching Mariners games less enjoyable. Maybe I’m missing the reality that there’s much less of a chance of re-signing Beltre than there was Ichiro at the time, but we should focus more on the easier fixes like getting rid of Betancourt, as that is every bit as important.
The last administration constucted this team with Ibanez, and Clement. Clement didn’t work out (not their fault) and the new administration traded ( sorry not traded, just let him get overpaid elsewhere and took a draft pick or 2 in compensation) Ibanez.
I think we should bite the bullet and re-acquire Asdrubal Cabrera from the Indians. I think it could be done in exchange for a guy like Jason Vargas.
You’re crazy.
The new administration offered Ibanez salary arbitration when he was a free agent and he signed with another team. He was not traded.
I think as of now trading Beltre would be a huge mistake. He is not going to get near the contract he got last time, regardless of his play. His defense may be the best in the majors at 3B, at minimum top 5, and he can hit pretty well too. I’d expect him to get 8-10 million a year, which is nearly half what he makes now, and we also get Wash and Batista off the books. Unless he comes out and says he will not come back to the mariners, I’d think we got a reasonable shot to keep him.
What about a Cedeno/LHSS platoon. Trade Yuni (and Wash if necessary) for someone like a Lowrie/Maicer/Zobrist/Asdrubal. It wouldn’t completely solve the problem, but it help and we we still always have a utility guy off the bench.
Explore a deal with the Yankees. They need relief help and we are going to have to get rid of some of our relievers when Chad Cordero and one of the Lefties come up. Might as well sell high on a guy.
The Yankees are having enough trouble keeping infielders on the field. They’re currently playing the ghost of Angel Barroa at third.
Trade Yuni (and Wash if necessary) for someone like a Lowrie/Maicer/Zobrist/Asdrubal.
People do not give you good players for crap.
People do not give you good players for crap.
People do not give you good players for crap.
Chuckle, chuckle.
whoa Dave, you only have to hit the “submit comment” button once.
oh, wait… maybe that was for added emphasis or something.
It’s the choice Zduriencik made between defense and offense, which we all cheered for. We’ve got the best defensive outfield in the game, and the lightest slugging outfield in the game. There is a reason that teams are willing to pay players like Ibanez 10m a year to misplay line drives in the corner.
You do realize that exactly one of the five quintet of hacking right-handers is an outfielder, right?
I just need to stop reading the comments for a few days. You guys make me think that we’re just banging our heads against a wall.
Bavasi gave away Choo and on a different occasion Asdrubal Cabrara for what could be termed as crap, i am sure he did it more than those two times but those are the first two that come to mind. But yes, the Yuni & Washburn crap sandwich will not bring back players of the quality mentioned, it has got to be harder to find GM’s who don’t understand the true value of a players anymore.
All right then, Dave.
But how is my supposed craziness manifesting itself? By saying we should acquire Cabrera back from the Wahoos, or by saying that someone like Vargas could snare him?
My guess is that it was the latter.
But, you really didn’t specify.
And if my guess is correct, what (in all your experience) would it take to land an Asdrubal Cabrera, if it can be agreed it’d be a good move?
I’ll concentrate on Cabrera, because the availability/talent/cost factors for others look really tilted against us at this time….
To get a 23-year old middle infielder with a current OPS of .877? Why on earth would the Indians be interested in dealing one of their foundations?
Why would the Indians trade Cabrera? He’s a 23-year-old switch hitter with enough range to be good at SS or great at 2B, and he has about one season’s worth of major league playing time and has been worth +3.1 wins in that time. He makes nothing, and won’t make anything for several more years. They’re contenders this year, and he’s a big part of why they’re one of the better teams in the AL Central.
He’s probably more valuable than every member of the Mariners 25 man roster besides Felix. If your goal was to knock them off their feet and make them trade him, you’d have to do something like Beltre (plus cash to fit him in their budget), Saunders, Pineda, and a lower level prospect. And even then, I’m not sure they make that move.
Bavasi gave away Choo and on a different occasion Asdrubal Cabrara for what could be termed as crap, i am sure he did it more than those two times but those are the first two that come to mind.
There’s a huge difference between acquiring a prospect who later develops into a good player and acquiring a good player.
Which is not to say that those trades made sense when they were made either, they just make less and less sense with 20:20 hindsight.
Thanks, Dave. Makes sense.
Now, to look for another solution to this problem. And I so totally agree it’s a problem.
I don’t know about anyone else, but I’ve been telling my friends/fellow fans for a couple weeks now:
“We’re too right-handed! In both the bullpen and bats! And all the timely hits will eventually disappear for too long of a stretch! And I love exclamation points!”
(J/K on that last one.)
Vargas is up, though. Sure hope dude decides he wants a major-league job.
If your goal is to convince people generally that they should think critically and hold opinions that make sense, you are.
If, however, you’re trying to share cogent analysis with an informed subset of the populace, then these comments are not evidence that you are failing (though one might well wonder why the site has comments).
Long time reader – first time post.
Realistically I think DH, SS, and 2B are the places to look for solutions. I cant imagine a scenario where we trade Beltre and our team is better off for it.
DH – If Griffey struggles to the point where it is unreasonable to start him anymore, I think it could be highly likely that we call up Clement. Easily solved but not a scenario we would like to see.
SS – This is the position I see that we could most easily trade for. Yuni, as previously mentioned, has become a defensive liability.
I would like to just throw out a name. Ryan Theriot. Gets on base, plays average defense, hits lefties. I don’t expect Theriot to have a season like he did last year but I would argue that a line of .270/.350 isn’t out of the picture.
What about Ben Zobrist? I think he could be a great player givin solid playing time.
What do you guys think of his availibility?
I’m not too sure on his availability, but I am fairly certain that Zobrist is a fairly lousy defender at SS, which is part of the reason why he’s a super utility type for the Rays. And while he would most definitely be an offensive upgrade over Yuni, the team really shouldn’t look to acquire a SS that is really not any better than Yuni at defense. But kept in a super utility role, he would be great.
Bring in Geoff Jenkins for the minimum to pinch hit and play some LF when Chavez is in CF.
Plus, he can move in to Griffey’s spot when Junior gets hurt or officially becomes Dave Hansen.
Zobrist is a minus defender at SS (no better than Betancourt) but he appears to be a decent corner outfielder. His value is his utility — he doesn’t have a permanent position with the Rays because they have better players at those positions already*. Essentially he’s a left-handed Willie Bloomquist. Strikes out a bit more, walks a bit more, a bit more power in the bat. He’s a lefty, and he’d be a handy bench player, but I don’t see any reason to think he’s going to be “great” any more than Willie was, no matter how much playing time either one of them got.
* You might say that means he’s expendable by the Rays, especially if they drop out of contention in the brutal AL East. But that also means there’s nothing they need, so why would they part with him? Unless you want to overpay for a utility guy, how do you pry him loose?
Trade targets?
Joey Votto- The Reds have Yadir Alfonso coming through the system. Once they fall out of the race, Votto may become available. Hey look, Bavasi’s in the FO. May happen..
David DeJesus- Makes a little $$. Kind of a duplication in KC with Crisp. Also, they’ve got 140 1B. Butler, Shealy.. That guy who’s name begins with a K that I can’t pronounce. They’ve also been in love with Yu Bet.
Internal solutions..
Clement, Saunders (just started in LF and batted LO in Tacoma)..
I think the ultimate solution though, is that Wak starts using platoons more. Clement can split time at Catcher. I think it can be argued that the Gut’s bat doesn’t argue for a permanent role.. So there’s two spots..
I think Zobrist makes some sense too.. If his D = Yu Bet’s, then it’s a net push when he plays. He just brings in a LH bat.. More options..
Votto is fairly valuable and even if he’s soon to be redundant (which is far from certain) he’s nowhere close to expendable. He’d cost a fair amount. And since he plays 1B, you’re not adding a left-handed bat. You’re swapping left-handed bats. Votto is too good to get cheaply, he’s not a huge enough upgrade to sacrifice a ton of talent for and he doesn’t solve the immediate problem.
I like DeJesus and he’d clearly be an upgrade over Endy, but once again you’re just replacing a left-handed hitter with another left-handed hitter. DeJesus is better, but you’ve still got a ton of free-swinging righties in the lineup. As far as KC being “in love” with Yuni; I’m fairly certain that’s no longer the case, and I’m not entirely sold that it ever was. Yuni has clearly not improved (and may in fact be getting worse) and I doubt the rest of baseball is completely oblivious. Not only that, but Mike Aviles is a better player than Yuni by a fairly wide margin.
Filling that middle infield spot is going to be very difficult on the fly. Seems to me you suck it up there, and just go with what you have.
There is another glaring weakness at the moment… Griffey. He really might be cooked. Fortunately, that’s an easy fix. You could go with Clement, which might or might not work (seems to me like you risk further devaluing if he struggles), another DH-type, or you could target a guy like Seth Smith, who is actually OK in the outfield and so has additional value when Endy sits against righties.
My hope is that Wak is smart enough that if he sees lack of offense against righthanders as being a bigger roadblock to winning than Clements defense as catcher, then he’ll make the adjustment.
[no politics]