More on Bedard’s ranking
Baker writes at some length about why he thinks Bedard’s going to be a Type A in responding to “comments” and ups his prediction:
Taking all that into account, there is an excellent chance Bedard qualifies for Type A free-agency next November. It doesn’t matter where he ranks at present-time, because that ranking is skewed by an incomplete 2008. As long as Bedard stays on the mound, he should be fine. Rarely will things be a slam dunk like they were with Raul Ibanez. But in this case, as long as Bedard makes it to the mound, goes six innings and does what he’s been doing, he will make that elite cut. He might even increase his projected wins and winning percentage now that the Mariners are scoring a few more runs.
Now we’re to “excellent” chance?
I’d like first to just cross-apply the previous arguments, which are still entirely applicable. I’m not sure exactly what he’s arguing here, except that he both understands how they’re done and… doesn’t.
But the two-year thing… Bedard barely, barely made the cut last year, and Baker’s making the argument that all he has to do is match the 07-08 two-year performance to be an A.
Okay. But the rankings count wins and win percentage. In 2007, Bedard went 13-5 for a .722 win percentage. What are the chances he’s going to get there with this M’s team? Eight wins I can see, but this M’s team is legitimately terrible offensively. He’s not going to go the rest of the year losing only three games. In 2007, Bedard struck out 221 batters — he’s pitching well this year, but he’s not going to get there. Check out the single-season win-loss leaderboards: the best and luckiest starters in each league don’t get much higher than that. Why, in 2006 no one in the NL managed a .722. Takes a lot to get there.
And on and on… that Bedard’s composite 2007-2008 line got him at the tail end of the A players is a persuasive argument for how steep the mountain he has to climb this season. Given how bad, ranking-wise, his 08 was, he had to have it taken alongside the best year of his career, where he got lucky not taking losses, in order to be at the back of the pack.
Anyway, as I said last time, it could happen. But it’s a lot more difficult than Baker seems to believe it is, even if Bedard continues to pitch well the rest of the year.
Per Geoff:
“He might even increase his projected wins and winning percentage now that the Mariners are scoring a few more runs.”
Yeah, that small sample size will hold up for the rest of the season, Geoff.
He does say “might”. It could happen.
Plus the whole Type A/B thing is graded on a curve. You can have a career year, but if a lot of other guys are doing the same, you don’t move up as much as you should (and you could even move down). I have no idea how the top tier of pitchers are doing this year relative to how they did in 2007, but since Bedard’s combined ’07-’08 barely got him into Type A, having his ’09 match his ’07 may not be enough if there are more pitchers doing better this year than there were in ’07. Just looking at Bedard’s numbers in isolation doesn’t tell you enough to make the argument Baker is making.
All due respect (joser), but Baker is doing anything but looking at Bedard’s numbers in isolation. Take a look at that article – he made some very interesting arguments about the other former Type A pitchers who may well lose that status, and the (seemingly) smaller number of replacements who threaten to climb the ranks. It’s true that the crux of his argument is about Bedard’s numbers, but only after determining that the rest of the field (number of pitchers above and below Bedard’s previous performance) are unlikely to change.
DMZ makes some very good points that Baker may have overlooked. I think Bedard is currently very much borderline, but perhaps assisted somewhat by one or two (net) good pitchers slipping below him. It will still take a near-2007 performance to keep that status, particularly considering that WPCT is an important part of this process… that loss will have to be compensated for unless Bedard really does see multiple former Type A players drop quietly beneath him.
“He does say ‘might’.”
True that — there is a non-zero chance. Just seems like a very weak suggestion that his projected wins & pctg can be increased.
I don’t find that I agree with Geoff’s assessment, as he’s valuing possible outcomes much higher than probable outcomes.
Isn’t the most recent year weighted heavier than the previous one? That’s my understanding, and that would mean Bedard wouldn’t quite have to match ’07 to qualify as an A.
Another point that Baker isn’t accounting for is that Bedard didn’t pitch a full season in 2007. I haven’t tried to reconstruct the math, but it’s my guess that this may basically remove any chance for Bedard to be Type A.
As was noted in the comments previously, there’s an adjustment to counting stats for time on the disabled list. This adjustment, I understand, was one of the trickier issues to address in reconstructing the formula. Since the Orioles put Bedard on the DL in 2007, his counting stats for that year get adjusted upward in the formula.
In other words, to reach Type A status, he doesn’t just have to match his 2007 performance this season. He has to match it by September, and then keep going for another month at the same rate. His current pace is not sufficient.
Isn’t it safe to assume that JackZ knows what the chances are that Bedard will be a Type A, and that he will proceed accordingly? I have total confidence that he does, and will.
Sure, but what’s the fun in that, if we can’t waste time trying to outthink him?
Well, here is the link to last year’s rankings:
As you see, three guys who were ahead of Bedard will certainly drop behind him (Carmona (sucky), Mussina (retired), Vasquez (NL)).
One guy will certainly jump ahead (Sabathia, who was in the NL when this list was compiled but won’t be after the year).
Moving Bedard up the net 2 from moving ahead of 3 guys but behind CC puts Bedard in 14th place. Top 17 get Type A.
Of the guys behind him, 3 are in great shape to pass him:
19. Jon Lester 74.806
20. Zack Greinke 73.450
21. Jered Weaver 73.062
That puts Bedard right at 17th. The last spot.
And two others: Gil Meche and Tim Wakefield could pass Bedard if they have strong remainders to the season.
It’s not as good of a position as Baker makes it seem, but it isn’t as bad as we all thought… He’s about 50/50 I’d say.
Ok, if Baker is actually saying that, good. I don’t generally go over and read his blog because I have to be very careful about scrolling lest I go too far and actually see the comments, which are typically like a black hole of stupidity that can reach across the internet and suck my brain out through my eyes.
The top 17 is not a fixed number. The CBA says it’s the top 20% of qualifiers. So if there are more qualifiers there can be more Type As and less if there are fewer qualifiers.
Are the current year and the previous year weighted equally? Or is the current year more important?
The options remain the same:
trade now – trade later – hold on thru season and
see if you can sign him.
The only reason the Mariners are even near the .500 mark is having four pitchers consistently pitch really good. Can remember when when we had one starter under 4.00 (Freddie or Jamie). Hard for me to see letting go of such a good pitcher when with just a little bit more offense he would be vying for a Cy Young Award (okay so Halladay has it locked up right now!!).
Problem seems to be finding that offensive person while keeping pitching at the same level. I know budget is a dirty word but IF JackZ works his magic while ownership gives more flexibility in the pocketbook, I dont see why that cant happen.
Seems to me the only choices are trade him soon, or resign him. I gotta say, I am leaning towards resigning unless an amazing offer for young middle infielders with great hitting comes along.
I’ve never seen anything like that. Everything I’ve read says the numbers for the last two years are totalled, and then the players are ranked based on each relevant (er, so to speak) cateogy, and then the ranks are summed. Both years rate the same.
One last thought. If this draft pans out with the number of choices the Mariners have then maybe the next draft loses a little of its importance.
With the load of players sitting in AAA and the draft, it looks like filling the middle infield slots becomes the only paramount issue if they hold onto the starting pitching.
Okay one more thought. Catch 22 – If Bedard becomes a Type A then he becomes more expensive to resign while if he is a Type B more people may get in the bidding knowing he is a steal.
Whether it’s a 75% chance or a 25% chance that he’s type A, you’re still gambling on it either way if you decide to keep him. I think we’ll see what Zduriencik’s take is on those chances by what type of prospects he asks for.
If Bedard is a type A, I actually think teams will be more reluctant to sign him as they would have to give up draft picks to do so.
Look at Orlando Hudson and Adam Dunn…the market pretty much dried up for them and there weren’t many teams bidding on them.
Bedard is different since he is an ace pitcher but if he is Type B, my guess is the line of teams will be long lining up to sign him as they won’t have to surrender as much on the draft picks side to get him.
w/r/t “It’s not as good of a position as Baker makes it seem, but it isn’t as bad as we all thought… He’s about 50/50 I’d say.”
Again, in the current ratings, he’s a mid-B, and while we can expect raw wins to go up (perhaps not as much as others), that win % might not stick, and he’s still not going to eat that many innings. If he repeated his 2007 performance, he would barely make the cut. He’s not going to do that. So 50-50? That’s probably generous, unless there’s some argument that those years were comparatively strong for starting pitchers and this year very weak.
From Baker’s piece:
“But then again, Cliff Lee, who finished two slots ahead of Bedard last year, is bound to take a tumble with the relatively poor showing this season compared to last year’s Cy Young winning campaign.”
Baker seriously doesn’t get this. Lee’s ranking will go way up because his miserable 2007 (5-8, 6.29 ERA) will be off the books. It’s like you said, Derek, he lists out how the rankings are compiled and immediately forgets the specifics.
Strange system they use. Common sense and normal vision would put Bedard ahead of these two guys. What real world GM actually wouldn’t rate LH K pitcher Bedard higher than Meche and Wakefield?
Might this also just be “plant” info from the Mariners to try and increase the offerings for Bedard? Now they can point to this article to potential suitors and say, well…we’re in no hurry to trade him. We’ve got this in our back pockets.