Yuni To Second?
Lost in the rest of the news yesterday was a short note from Larry LaRue that the team is considering shifting Yuniesky Betancourt to second base when he returns from the disabled list. Lopez would move to third in Beltre’s absence, and Cedeno would presumably continue as the starting shortstop.
This move would do a couple of things. Most notably, it’s probably the best defensive infield the team can run out there without Beltre. Yuni is probably a -5 to -15 defender at SS now, while Lopez is 0 to -10 at second, and Woodward is -5 to +5 at third. That would suggest that the M’s would expect to lose 15 runs on defense from those three positions compared to league average over a full season.
By shifting Betancourt and Lopez to positions where their range isn’t as critical, they would get a good chunk of those runs back. Cedeno’s something like a -5 to +5 shortstop, while Betancourt would probably be a -0 to -10 second baseman, and Lopez would be -5 to +5 at third base, where his defensive skillset profiles a bit better. All of the sudden, -15 from that group becomes a -5.
It also gives them a new series of moves to consider. We’d talked about the rather lackluster options for acquiring a third baseman from outside the organization, but the re-alignment would put the M’s in the position to be able to buy a shortstop instead. There are some decent ones available, from Jack Wilson to Nick Punto to Reid Brignac (okay, he’s less available than the other two, but one can dream). Acquiring either Wilson or Punto would put the M’s in a position to get above average defense from their 2B/3B/SS collection, which is hard to imagine given the talent on the roster right now.
Given the available options, this is probably the best the M’s can do. It’s not great, and they should still look to upgrade on Cedeno at short if they can get a decent player for a reasonable price, but it’s better than having Chris Woodward in the line-up on a regular basis.
It also comes with the bonus that if Beltre is able to return in September, there’s a pretty good chance that Betancourt is the one who loses the game of musical chairs. Lopez would almost certainly go back to second base, and Yuni would have had to impress enough with his work to unseat Cedeno or the new shortstop and get his old position back. Yea, I don’t think that’s very likely either.
I applaud this move.
That’s the type of news I like to hear. It almost makes me forget losses like las…
But are the M’s really looking to find another shortstop? I mean Yuni has had chance after chance and he keeps coming back.
I try not to live in the past, but wouldn’t it be nice to have the option of going to Cabrera or Valbuena?
The first post on the tribune article:
“Why are they so hot on Cedeno? I would have much rather seen Morse in that spot.”
I Thought that would get a laugh. Also on KJR today, an Indians reporter spoke about the availability of Jhonny Peralta. He is a SS moving to 3b. Any interest?
the reporter also said that the Indians would be happy for Seattle to take him, as they were tired of Peralta.
Hmm. Baker thinks Yuni to 2nd & Lopez to 3rd is ok as a stop-gap, but “a contending team goes out and gets someone”– apparently because Lopez doesn’t give you the power a “real” third baseman should give you. He is still on the Atkins bandwagon.
I like that the first and only comment on the LaRue article is:
My god, is it ever going to end?
Also, I’ll be extremely happy if this happens… There just aren’t really any 3B stop-gaps worth trading for right now, and this would give us an in-house solution. I’d much rather see the trade chips go towards a new middle infield.
Not sure what the asking price is or how the teams match up trade wise (given that both teams are kind of in the middle of buy/sell mode) but Escobar and Kelly Johnson are more than in the doghouse in Atlanta. Escobar for some immaturity issues and KJ for performance. Dave, do you see a match?
Peralta was pretty good last year but seems to have fallen off a small cliff this year. Still, he’s a better option than anything we’ve currently got. Wonder what they’d want for him?
As far as Wilson goes (how many J. Wilson’s do we need at SS anyway), seems the Pirates are the MLB equivalent of the drunk brother-in-law in your fantasy league when it comes to trades.
I’d much rather see the trade chips go towards a new middle infield.
I’m not sure I care which hole a trade is used to plug, so long as it actually plugs one. Third base needs as much help for 2010 as the middle infield does. I’m curious, though, how a post that’s focused on the merits of an in-house solution – by shuffling players around – promptly turned into a comments thread of trade speculation.
Apparently Tracy is warming up to Atkins again. Or maybe they’re just talking him up to boost his trade value.
Apparently “most executives” feel as much trepidation about this AL East / AL West stretch of games as we do.
Personally, I’d love to have a player on the M’s who combined a dry wit and an ability to hit. Although I’d settle for just the latter.
I’d love to see Peralta in a M’s uniform. It would be interesting to see what moving back to his natural position would do for him, not to mention being traded to a team that’s still relatively in it. The Indians really need relievers, I bet we could pawn off one of our erratic flamethrowers that they like.
I think regardless of the long-term solution, Lopez needs some time at 3B to see IF he can be an option if Beltre leaves via free agency…I understand sample sizes, but even if it’s only two dozen games, we will have SOME idea…
I was simply making the point that I’m a fan of the in-house solution because there’s a possibility of Beltre returning this year, and it’s my understanding that the organization is high on Tuiasosopo going forward… that is all.
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What ever happened to this organization being so high on Tui? Not that I am the biggest fan of his; but why not bring him up to play third in Beltre’s absence? Not as versatile as Woodward?
Tui is still injured I believe.
(Hmmm, that quote ended up longer than I thought. Sorry about that)
Well, it ended up in trade speculation because that’s what we like to do, and Dave did mention the idea of still looking for trades to upgrade SS. So the real puzzle is how we ended up talking about 3B upgrades.
So getting back to SS — Peralta is a RH bat. On the other hand, so is Cedeno, and while Peralta may have fallen off a cliff, he’s still a significant offensive upgrade over Cedeno (even if you assume Cedeno regresses back to his career numbers and Peralta does not), and about as good defensively. The sad thing is, one Fangraphs writer has compared his performance this year to Willie Bloomquist. Jhonny is not as cheap as Willie, however: Cot’s says he’s owed $3.4M this year, $4.6M next year, and $7M in ’11 (though there’s a club option for a $250K buyout). I won’t even go into how much sadder it is that Jhonny is available because (switch-hitting) Asdrubal took his job.
Speaking of Tuiasosopo, what’s the word on his progress after elbow surgery?
Perhaps in response to this paragraph in the original post:
Yeah, surgery on his elbow for much the same thing as Beltre’s shoulder (which also probably explains why his stint with the M’s out of spring training consisted entirely of warming the bench). The prognosis at the time was for 6 weeks I believe, which should be right about now; but obviously if he was close to being back and MLB-ready they wouldn’t be making these other moves. (Other reports suggest he won’t be ready at all this year.)
Sure, Dave acknowledged the possibility of trades, and I wasn’t going to moderate people as off-topic for talking about it. But it wasn’t the emphasis of the post, and there were some really random names being thrown out (Kelly Johnson?), so I figured a gentle reminder was in order before this devolves into complete wishcasting.
FWIW, floating bone chips rather than spurs. I thought their phrasing was odd … “He could be back this year, but probably won’t be ready for MLB play.” At the time of the surgery, it was 4-6 weeks rehab plus however many rehab starts with a team, which would put him at mid-July.
I’ve been thinking a little about how Beltre’s injury is going to affect him heading into free agency. There’s a good chance Boras will have Beltre looking for a one-year deal to re-establish his value, which means Seattle can’t offer him arbitration unless they’re prepared to commit $12 million to him next year. Because he won’t get a better one-year offer than that in this economy. And if Lopez proves more valuable at 3B where his glove is average and his bat is on par with Beltre’s, it makes more sense to buy a whole new middle infield with that $12 million.
So Type A or Type B may be a moot point. There’s a very real chance Beltre walks away at the end of the year and we have nothing to show for it. If the M’s are out of it, don’t be too surprised if he’s traded on August 31st for a couple of C grade prospects just so the team can get something for him.
Have we ever had a thread that didn’t run into trade speculation?
Some take longer than others.
Sure, but I think the general goodness of the internal move is mostly uncontroversial. Lopez to third, Yuni to second, Cedeno to short – check, check, check, good job Jack, now what’s left to talk about? Oh, Trades! Especially since we’re in trade season now.
To a certain extent, you could describe this move as productive deck chair shuffling. Clearly it’s a good move and squeezes a little more value of out the parts we have left after putting Beltre on the DL. But it also doesn’t address the serious middle infield hole the team has and by itself isn’t going to put the team on a contention track.
It does give us a couple of hints about team thinking however. It certainly implies that the M’s think Cedeno is a better defensive SS than Yuni and aren’t waiting for Yuni to live up to his glove potential any longer. And it hints that Lopez is not what they really want at 2B either. It reinforces their defense first mindset.
And, back momentarily to the trade topic, it opens up not just a new set of trades for the M’s to consider, but a better set of trades to consider. The options for filling 2B/SS are better both from a stop-gap and a future perspective than the options for 3B.
Sure Woodward is bad, but Cedeno is flat out terrible with the bat. Let’s see, Woodward’s expected wOBA of .277 – Cedeno’s .207 = .07 / 1.15 * say 300 PA = Cedeno is a full 18 runs worse than Woodward. Until Cedeno gets a clue at the plate (last night’s HR helps), I don’t see how this makes even remote sense.
If you think Cedeno’s expected wOBA going forward is .207, then I don’t think we can help you.
First, I’m not at all sure that no one would offer more than $12M on a one-year deal for Beltre. He’s widely recognized as a premium defender. A one year deal is low commitment, so higher dollars aren’t so scary.
All the reports are that the surgery went well, so I would expect 2010 Beltre to be worth at least $12M. Considerting that, at this point, both Yuni and Lopez seem to have lost the inside track for SS and 2B next year, and Cedeno hasn’t claimed a 2010 starting job either, realistically the M’s will go into 2010 looking for a 2B, a SS and a 3B. $12M for a +3.5 to +4 WAR guy is not a bad deal.
The wildcard of course is Tui. If he could provide +2 WAR next year at $400k, I’m sure the M’s would love to take that and spend the $12M on the middle infield. His injury and protracted rehab seem to have put a wrench in the plans.
Lopez will start somewhere. He’s not that far gone.
Last year Hudson, Crede, and Orlando Cabrera all signed for $4m or less. Beltre is better than those guys, but not $8 million better. Especially not entering a market where a team can also get guys like Crede, Mora, Glaus, or DeRosa on short deals in an even weaker market.
Even if some other team is willing to go that high, those offers won’t materialize until well after Beltre has to decide whether or not to accept arbitration here. If the M’s offer, I don’t see how Boras let’s Beltre decline it.
Then you take Beltre back for one season with open arms. He’s easily worth $12 million on a one year deal.
There are most certainly a few ‘X’ factors. Beltre’s effectiveness when he comes back could help reestablish his value, especially if the M’s find some way to hang around until then. Boras might still try to do a one year deal so he can milk a multiyear deal when the economy bounces back.
I would be shocked if the M’s sign Beltre… Not so much because they wouldn’t want him, but rather that he doesn’t want them.
Or more specifically, he doesn’t want the park.
Safeco is not suited for Beltre’s power distribution, and the weather doesn’t help.
Additionally, I’m not sure he is how the M’s are planning on going forward. He is on the downward arc of his career.
Now that is not to say that if he undervalued league and the M’s can get him at a good price, he won’t sign with them… But it just seems like the M’s aren’t a good fit for him now.
So, basically…
1) Park doesn’t suit improving Beltre’s numbers. Beltre (and his agent) likely wants a park better suited for a right handed power hitter.
2) Tui is back there, getting ready to knock on the door.
3) The new M’s mgmt probably isn’t looking to sign Beltre to a long-term big dollar contract… But there are probably teams who would. Teams with budgets of $150M or more per year…
I still believe Beltre will be a M next year. He needs to reestablish his value, we already have the hole there for him, he already knows the team and system, etc. He could go to more of a hitters or at least right handed hitters park, most winning teams already have a 3B, maybe the Red Sox if they dump Lowell. If we can get some low end prospects for Beltre I say we do it, we made be able to bring him back in the offseason anyway.
to go into the trade speculation, i’d still love to see the Mariners acquire Felipe Lopez, although his numbers have probably fallen off quite a bit from the first 2 months of the season. He is also a free agent at the end of the season, so it probably wouldn’t be the best option via trade, but I just love having those utility players.
Last year Hudson, Crede, and Orlando Cabrera all signed for $4m or less. Beltre is better than those guys, but not $8 million better.
Beltre is not just better, but more durable and/or distinguishable from those examples because he won’t be a Type A free agent. The Orlandos both cost the signing teams a draft pick.
Well, here’s a question: how quickly can Yuni and Lopez transition to these new positions? I realize desperate times call for desperate measures, but asking two players to switch mid-season to new infield positions (even if they’re nominally less demanding than their old ones) sounds like recipe for some major clusterf–er, errors, at least at first. How much practice would it take before we’re actually seeing the UZR improvement this new alignment should provide? Will Yuni even show up for fielding drills?
Yes, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of information about Tui’s progress. Of course the usual health privacy considerations apply, but it does seem a little ominous. Hopefully one of the reporters, or someone with contacts (Jay?) can ask around.
Where does the Beltre “re-establish his value” talk come from? He has 7 seasons of slightly above average bat & awesome defense and one season of amazing bat & awesome defense. He’s a 3.5 win player with +/- 1 win variance.
Does anyone really think he is more than that?
Cedeno’s updated ZIPS is .261 wOBA, which still works out to at least half a run below replacement at SS. Argh, yes, but Woodward’s projection is .297 which is only worth about 9 runs over Cedeno’s bat and Cedeno’s glove, via the deck-chair shuffle Dave ran through, is worth about +10 runs over having Woodward play 3B.
So I think it’s about a wash, but Ronnie Cedeno, dissapointing as he’s been, still has more upside.
Lame.
Greg Dobbs anyone?
OPS by year (age in parens):
2005 (26) .716
2006 (27) .792
2007 (28) .802
2008 (29) .784
2009 (30) .664
There may be some teams that look at that little Bell (tre? ha ha) curve and see an aging trend. Coupled with a two month stint on the DL, Boras may think there will be fewer buyers interested in multi-year big-dollar deals. If he could tack on another line to that list that read something like:
2010 (31) .780
then there might be more suitors in 2011.
50% or more of Beltre’s value comes from his glove, and though almost everyone recognizes him as a superior defender, many teams still undervalue defense and don’t see a low-.700’s OPS slick fielding 3B as worth big bucks.
Make this defensive happen, please.
On a bright note, Ichiro led all of MLB with a .407 Avg in June and King Felix led all MLB with a .94 ERA in June as well.
Injuries always decrease the value of a player. Especially a chronic injury like this has been.
An injury that recurs is not necessarily the same thing as a chronic injury.
Yes, but something that reoccurs often has an unseen systematic cause, even if its not chronic.
Plus, perception is always more important than reality, and its possible that the belief in baseball is that Adrian Beltre gets hurt a lot after the thumb, shoulder last year, and shoulder this year.
Plus, perception is always more important than reality, and its possible that the belief in baseball is that Adrian Beltre gets hurt a lot after the thumb, shoulder last year, and shoulder this year.
I kind of doubt that people in baseball have that perception about a player that has averaged over 149 games a season for his whole career.