I’m Running Out Of Words
Dave · July 3, 2009 at 9:23 am · Filed Under Mariners
So, instead, I’ll just present a picture.
Franklin Gutierrez, All-Star. It won’t happen, but you could make a pretty good argument that it should.
So, instead, I’ll just present a picture.
Franklin Gutierrez, All-Star. It won’t happen, but you could make a pretty good argument that it should.
It’s a huge shame he has no shot unless Wak can talk Maddon into it, and there’s really no hope of that.
And one of his better comps is only $600k behind him in value. You go, Cammy.
Matt Kemp bats eighth for the Dodgers. Not even his manager realizes how good he is.
He really is special, that Franklin. Just out of curiosity, what fielding metric is represented in that chart? It’s probably obvious, but I’m not an obvious kinda guy.
Fangraphs uses UZR for that chart.
Dave or anyone that can explain it, why is the replacement value different for all the guys if they are all CF’s?
Josh Hamilton getting voted in is messing things up at OF in the AL too. A lot of deserving OF’ers always get left back every year, but this year one more will get left back because of him.
That said, Granderson would probably go before Franklin.
I have only Ichiro and Felix representing the M’s with Branyan and Aardsma left out due to numbers at their positions.
Dave or anyone that can explain it, why is the replacement value different for all the guys if they are all CF’s?
The replacement value per game is the same for all of them, but they have differing amounts of playing time.
I think with the expanded roster this year 2 out of 3 of the bubble players should go. There is a lot to be said for picking Branyan, its not just the home run totals, his moon shots would be very entertaining in the Home Run Derby, that fact wouldn’t be lost on anybody. Adding pitching is probably the main reason they are expanding the rosters, so Aardsma has good shot.
Gutierez will probably be left out because his offensive stats won’t look great on the graphics when he’s at bat. But judging by they way my wife drools when he’s on screen, he’s is a very marketable player, which they should like.
Deep-stats-wise, you’re 100% right – he deserves to go. And if he hit the ball in April (627 OPS) and May (711 OPS) the way he has in June (879) and July (1667) then he’d have a real shot, too. Unfortunately, there is (and probably always will be) a bias towards hitting – you need to be above a certain threshold before you’re in the argument, and once you’re in the argument then defense can get you a long way. But when you’re at 3.6, and guys like Hunter are at 20+, it’s hard to get into the conversation.
As an aside, this seems to not apply to Ozzie Smith, who made 9 all star games with sub-700 OPS numbers.
Ichiro and Felix are both in for sure. Branyan and Aardsma both really need to go though. Both are more than deserving. I think Aardsma have the second lowest era among AL relievers and lowest number of hits per 9 innings. It looks like Teix or Youklis are going to be voted in. Branyan should really be there over both of them.
Ozzie Smith played in an era where no vulable defensive metrics were available. Had they been available, Ozzie would be a 150 game UZR +40 run defender in SS. So he should go to the AS game every year with those stats.
Dave,
What is your take on Jones vs Franky. I’ve been arguing with other fans that I think Franky is better, that to go along with his crazy defense his bat hits enough to push him just ahead of Jones. Maybe I’m wrong but I do think Ms fans tend to evaluate Jones through emerald-colored glasses, and are personally invested in his value to justify the horrible Bedard trade.
Just curious. thanks
Agreed, but Gutierrez hits a few of his own moon shots. I’d like to see him in the HR Derby too.
Maybe they could add a “Web Gem Derby” for the slick defenders. Have infielders diving for balls and outfielders crashing into walls, that would be great excitment, and what could possibly go wrong?
at last report, Ellsbury was gaining fast on the third spot
I’m just going to say it — I’m glad we have Gutierrez over Jones. Gutierrez is the better player.
There, I said it.
I’d go with Branyan over Aardsma. Aardsma didn’t get the closer roll till a decent chunck into the season when Morrow flopped, though he’s been great since.
I have a question about the awesomeness of Ichiro!. He has yet to go 2 games in a row without getting a hit. He’ll have a 10 game hitting streak broken, but the very next game he gets a hit. Is there a way to find out if this has ever been done over a full season? They’ll probably DQ him for the first 8 games he missed, but it still seems to be an amazing feat.
I could live with him more than Hamilton since at least he’s played most of the season, but he wouldn’t be in my top 10 either, and only about 6-7 OF get to go.
I think the only way Branyan goes is if Tex beats Youkilis in the voting, allowing Youkilis to be picked at 3B. As it is, I think Youkilis, Tex, Cabrera and Morneau end up going.
At relief pitcher, I think Aardsma deserves to go, but they only take 4 relievers in most cases (unless there are no worthy starters.. not the case this season). You know Papelbon and Rivera go based on reputation, and I think Andrew Bailey goes since Oakland has to send someone. That leaves Aardsma to fight it out with Jenks, Fuentes for that last spot, and reputation tends to hold a lot of weight with the managers and playes who do the voting.
Both Russell and AA deserve to go, just saying I think at least one of them stays home, and likely both.
I so wish they’d do away with that antiquated ‘every team gets a player’ rule. For the all star game to have the weight it does, for a team like Oakland or Pittsburgh to have a representative when they have no deserving players is ridiculous.
I’d rather see them do away with the rule where winning the All-Star game awards home field advantage in the World Series.
It’s a flipping exhibition game; it should have the same rule as peewee league: Everybody Plays.
I think they should show the video of Alex’s “home run” to all AL managers and ask, “what do you want on your bench?”
jro
Goeff Baker, is that you?
Frankly, I’m kind of indifferent to it. If we’re pontificating: if Endy hadn’t been hurt, our outfield defense would far, far outclass a Gutierrez-Ichiro!-Jones outfield by a rate of 12 runs (Chavez UZR: 8.0 / Jones UZR: -4.8). Jones has so far granted his team +1.7 WAR, whereas Chavez–platooning as he did with Griffey and Balentien’s spot starts (and even a few for Cedeno)–gave the M’s +1.0.
If Jones improves defensively in the next 3-5 years (Guti is 26, Jones is 23, Endy is 31), he MIGHT fit favorably into our outfield.
For what it’s worth, Langerhans career UZR/150 in the outfield is 12.0 (over 418 games total). Guti’s is 20.6, Ichiro’s 10.0, Endy’s is 14.8…
If we can keep all four of those guys and use Langerhans as a bench player (or Endy as a bench player, their WAR values are about a push), we will still have the best defensive outfield in baseball. So Adam Jones…still has time to develop, but considering we’re starting to see some legitimate power numbers out of Guti…
We got fleeced in the Jones trade (damn you, Bavasi). But that doesn’t mean Jones would be better for the ball club were he here now. As a matter of fact, if Jones were here now, do you think Z would have gone out to get Guti and/or Endy?
Can someone please explain why the CF listed have different positional adjustments? Is the answer that it reflects Safeco is a more difficult place to play CF than the Mets’ stadium?
Donovan:
Check out this article on Fangraphs by Dave.