Bullpen Options
So, the last few days put the spotlight on the fact that this collection of bullpen arms has been overachieving all season. There are some good arms down there, no doubt, but they don’t throw enough strikes, and given the amount of mid-90s fastballs down there, they don’t miss as many bats as you might think. This isn’t a championship caliber bullpen, unfortunately, and if the M’s are going to make a run this year or next, they’ll need to change a few faces around.
Internally, there are several candidates that could help the relief corps down the road. Everyone knows about Josh Fields and Phillippe Aumont, the organization’s pair of hard throwing first rounders with strikeout stuff, working on their craft in Double-A West Tennessee. However, they have a teammate that you probably don’t know that much about, but could beat them to the majors and might even be more important to the pen.
His name – Nick Hill. A lefty with a good college career, he was the team’s seventh round pick in 2007, though on talent, he should have gone quite a bit higher. Teams passed on him because he attended college at West Point, and as a member of the U.S. Military Academy, teams were unsure of whether he’d be able to obtain the necessary waiver to avoid active duty during wartime to pursue a career in baseball. Eventually, he was able to get the waiver, and he joined the Mariners organization that summer.
He starred for Everett in his pro debut, allowing 2 earned runs in 35 innings while striking out 45 batters. Even as a relief pitcher in the Northwest League, a 0.51 ERA will get you noticed, so the M’s tried him out as a starter in High Desert last year. That didn’t go so well, as he wasn’t able to hold his velocity in the rotation, and his fastball dipped down to 83 at times. Plus, it’s High Desert, so his numbers were pretty mediocre. This year, the M’s shifted him back to the bullpen full time, stuck him in West Tennessee, and have seen him take off.
His fastball is back in the 86-90 range, and while he doesn’t light up radar guns, it has serious sink to it. He’s posting a 56% groundball rate this year, just barely down from his 57% mark he’s put up as a professional. It’s a nasty two-seam fastball that gets a ton of groundballs. His change-up, which was just fringe-average coming out of school, is now a solid offering bordering on a plus pitch, and what he’s done with it this year is remarkable.
Remember, he’s a southpaw with a two-seamer, so he fits the profile of a guy who is going to run a big platoon split and get battered by right-handed hitters. Instead, this is what he’s done against RHBs:
86 batters faced, 19 hits, 1 walk, 22 strikeouts, 54.7% GB%.
That’s the kind of line you expect to see from a side-arming ROOGY. That’s Sean Green with good control. But he’s a lefty, and that’s nothing short of insane. His change-up might just grade out as just a good pitch, but whatever deception he’s getting with his arm action must make it extraordinarily tough on opposite handed hitters. His two-seam fastball and curveball, plus his short-arm delivery, are always going to make him tough on LHBs (career 22% K% against lefties), but his ability to destroy RHBs this year makes him far more interesting. And, he throws strikes, which is a refreshing break from the throw-hard-with-no-command types that populate the team’s bullpen right now.
Hill has always gotten rave reviews for his work ethic and competitiveness, which allowed him to out-pitch his stuff. Well, now that his stuff has gotten back closer to where it was when he was a potential first round pick in college, his pitchability helps even more. The M’s could really use a good left-handed reliever, and Hill has the makings of being an excellent one. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him in Seattle by years end, and if he continues to roll through the minors like he has, I’d bet on him breaking camp with the team next spring.
Also, while I’m talking about Hill, at some point we’re just going to have to recognize the ridiculously good job Bob Fontaine and his staff did of finding quality arms in the mid to late rounds of the draft.
2004 brought us Mark Lowe in the 5th round.
2006 brought us Kam Mickolio in the 18th round.
2007 brought us Nick Hill in the 7th round and Shawn Kelley in the 13th round.
These are not picks where you’re expecting to find high quality pitchers, but year after year, the M’s were grabbing guys late in the draft who could become assets for the club.
Can we also point out that they potentially botched (value-wise) the last 4 first round picks they took?
Aumont, Fields, Morrow, and Clement. Aumont and Morrow may still end up being starters worth their draft slot. Clement is looking like the ugly duckling of those drafted around him and taking closers with 1st round draft picks normally isn’t a strong choice.
If they were so good at getting relievers in later rounds, why didn’t they take position players in the early rounds?
Yea, because that has never been talked about. What a new and interesting conversation.
You’re absolutely right, that’s NEVER been discussed here before.
If you’re focusing on Fontaine and draft value, then you can’t say Aumont and Morrow were botched picks. The handling of their development may have been botched, but both of them were good picks when they were drafted.
Oh to have a reliever who can throw strikes. Among our relievers this year with at least 20 IP, Jakubauskas leads the way with a 2.33 K/BB. Hill is running a 5.86 so far this year (albeit at AA).
Interesting aside, the MLB leader in K/BB (among relievers with > 20 IP) is Mariano Rivera with a 14.33 (!). Second place is Chad Qualls with a 6.4. I guess that Rivera fellow is pretty good?
The M’s could definitely use some pleasant surprises to develop in the minors. There are still too many players on the big league roster who aren’t MLB quality players.
I know Jack Z. said after last season they needed to get more competitive players on the roster and that will take some time. He’s done a great job with the outfield, now hopefully the infield can get taken care of before the start of next season.
So, groundballer who throws strikes and get opposite-handed batters out — sounds like potential ace closer material to me (not that that’s necessarily the best use of his talents, but that certainly sounds like the best career path for him, salary-wise). So: flip Aardsma next year, Putz-style? The closer conveyor — Lather, rinse, repeat?
(And since Aumont was mentioned: I’m still hoping that they’re going to stretch him out to be a starter at some point, but time goes on and that point remains seemingly as far off in the indefinable future as ever…)
I too look forward to see what Jack Z will do this off-season. Everything the guy has done so far screams that he ‘gets it’. It’s going to be interesting to see what subtractions/additions are going to be made. I expect a revamped infield myself, hopefully including a return of Beltre.
Dave, thanks for the article on Nick Hill. I don’t have time to keep up with all the players and I hadn’t even heard of him before. It’s nice to be able to come here and ‘keep up’. I hope to see him, as we could use a lefty in the bull-pen. Given the BP woes the last couple games, it may be sooner rather than later, eh?
Excellent, Dave. I was wondering if I was the only one that had Nick Hill on his radar.
He was one of my favorite draftees in the 2007 class, I had him classified as “potential big-time draft steal”- knowing that his talent was higher than 7th-round, but military commitments scared teams off.
Another gamble the M’s stand a real chance of winning.
Even with his record last year (1-7? ), I still had some high hopes for him. The trick is, he’s kind of like Varvaro right now in the sense that age isn’t really on his side as far as ‘spect-status goes….he had to zoom, and he is.
I think you’re right about him. His intangibles and competitive streak are top-notch, from what other friends tell me. That kind of guy always has a shot to get his considerable stuff to work.
Good posting, as ever.
EDIT: Hill was 2-8 over two MiLB stops in 2008.
And for some reason, I thought he was born in 1984. Turns out he turns 25 next January….still time to get prime years out of him if he continues his ascent.
Also: West Point graduate? John Wetteland is going to absolutely love this guy.
Garrett Olson has done a nice job of getting lefties out this year, especially when utilized late in the game (as we saw with the critical SO of Markakis last night). Kudos to Zduriencik for acquiring Olson.
I don’t want to go much further down this road, since I can see in the early comments the garbage is being rehashed, but as well you know, Dave, I’ve been critical of Fontaine, and even I recognize that this is where he’s shined. I’ll definitely give Fontaine the kudos he deserves for that stuff. Hopefully that sort of thing continues with Zduriencik’s guys, because I really really really liked this about Fontaine. Getting Poythress at 51 was a dang good start, IMHO…
Well, no. The BP woes in the last couple of games were as much about defensive failures as anything to do with the pitching. The BP is the same high-wire act it always was, but suddenly without their defensive net — and that laid bare the inherent riskiness of their act. A bunch of live-but-wild arms are going to give you very streaky results at the best of times, and when you have bad luck and/or bad play in the field you’re going to get the worst of times — ie debacles like the last couple of games.
But pulling some kid up from AA ball to throw into the lion pit isn’t the right answer to the problem (both the Angels and A’s, among others, have done it this year with very mixed results, but only because they had no other choice). It might work, and he might thrive, but it’s not a good idea for him or the team. Given his success so far, you’d expect him in Tacoma sooner rather than later (to replace somebody else brought up to help the big team, presumably). And you’d like to see him in Seattle when the rosters expand in September. But jumping straight from AA to the majors is asking a lot even from a guy with good stuff and superior make-up.
The jump from Double-A to the majors isn’t that big a deal for a relief pitcher. It doesn’t take much to be a decent major league bullpen arm – if you can throw strikes and have one plus pitch or two average pitches, you’re good.
Shawn Kelley went from Double-A to the majors. Mark Lowe went from Double-A to the majors. It’s not that unusual.
Joe…I can’t argue the defense has stunk too. That’s why the other half of my post was regarding the infield. Sounded to me like Dave thought he might be brought up even faster than Fields or Aumont. Maybe not. I don’t think it would hurt to have a lefty in the BP that can get out RHB.
I do know this for sure: I have a LOT more confidence in the new FO, so if they bring a kid like Hill up, I’ll trust their decision. If he’s 25-26, he’s not a young kid like a lot of other draft picks.
I know this is a little off topic, but [deleted, little off topic]
Thanks for the update. Love the blog also. I go here and to Geoff Baker at the Seattle Times for all my M’s info. Keep up the awesome work!
Another way to put it is that in AAA, the bullpen is mostly going to be guys with no future, but who may end up being emergency fill-ins for the big league club. Real prospects are just as likely to be in AA as AAA, and this is looking a longer term than just the next month or two. I would have a lot more confidence that any of Hill, Aumont, Varvaro, or Fields could be real contributors to the 2010 bullpen than Randy Messenger, Denny Stark, or Justin Thomas.
So I’m really hopeful about Hill and the other names you said, makes me that much more excited for 2010. The thing that stuck with me the entire reading is Aumont. Is he officially a reliever or is he still rehabbing? I’ve always been hopeful he could be a future ace, but it looks more and more likely he will be a middle reliever…
One of the best things about this is that the M’s can continue to fill the bullpen with cheap arms for the forseeable future. That allows them to allocate resources elsewhere, like, say, the infield.
And there are plenty of other major league teams that over-value relievers, making it possible for the M’s to flip good relief pitchers for more interesting players, while still filling the bullpen cheaply.
This is awesome, Dave. I’ve been dying to get a good report on Nick Hill for weeks now – his minor number make my heart race they’re so good. Do you have any comparable slow-ish, groundballing LHRP names to throw out (both projected and highest-ceiling)?
I have concerns about the bullpen to hold up this year, even if we’re still in the race after July 31.
Dave, would you expect to see him called up this year, regardless of the team’s standings?
I’d throw out Varvaro in the 12th round of 2005 too, even if he was a potential first-rounder pre-TJ. He’s someone I could see contributing soon-ish, if his command gets going right.
Call me when he gets his BB/9 under 6.00
I was about to say. I thought his numbers as a reliever had improved over what he was doing as a starter, but apparently the all-star nod for him skewed my perceptions a bit.
I watched Nick Hill pitch quite a few times back when I was a freshman and he was a senior at USMA and it seemed like every ball in play against him was a ground ball. He also worked quickly on the mound.
You sold me, Dave.
Sounds like one less free agent we need to get next year to help this team become a legitimate contender in the American League.
How refreshing.
I can’t believe we’re having a discussion involving bullpen lefties and nobody’s already asked this, but I guess it’s on me. Okay, here goes:
Is there any reason to be interested in BJ Ryan?
His numbers this year blow and to my knowledge, he’s never been a guy with a big split, but we could really use a lefty in our pen and he was a good one not too long ago. Is there any chance he regains his form? Is he at all intriguing?
Also, any recent news on Chad Cordero or is he getting ready for early retirement?
Yes, leave it to you to rosterbate.
He’s “intriguing” in terms of a guy that could be a good, low-risk signing at or near the league minimum the same way Richie Sexson was a “intriguing” low-risk signing last year for the Yankees.
The only question is, would Ryan be good enough to pitch the 8th inning or not going forward, because that’s what we need lefties for more than anything else at this point, especially if Nick Hill is called up next year and pitches in the 6th-7th inning more often than not due to his Sean Green like stuff.
I’m sure they’d do it if they could make him “rehab” in Tacoma first before coming to Seattle, but not sure
Talk about one hell of a Loogy who can miss bats and get a bunch of groundballs. It’s be interesting if he can get righties out as well and not just be a GS52/Potatoes type reliever. Diamond in the rough I like it.
OK, closers are overrated. But as this guy has the ability to get out both lefties and righties, which is perhaps the most important trait for a closer, what “role” (Yes, I know that’s a bad word.) would he take in our bullpen?
Any word on Chad Cordero? Last I heard he was due to be ready at the All-Star break. That was about a month ago. Nobody’s talking about him now, so i assume he’s not yet ready, but anyone know what’s going on there?