Lincecum Lincecum Lincecum
DMZ · July 14, 2009 at 8:50 am · Filed Under Mariners
The semi-ban on Lincecum mentions will be lifted today for the All-Star Game. If everyone could not get into the whole draft thing, though, that would be really, really nice.
But what about Andrew Miller? Eh?
Can I use Lincecum’s name in preposterous trade suggestions? You know, like Balentien and a $9 Safeco beer for Lincecum? Or Morrow for Lincecum, straight up (hey, technically I didn’t mention the draft. 🙂 )?
I have to say, one of the things I most look forward to tonight is seeing Ichiro face off against Lincecum to start the game. Two of my very favorite players in MLB. Good luck Ichiro!
Is there a ban on mentioning Lincecum’s avatar from the video game commercial?
If you guys start trying to toe the line as closely as you can without getting squashed, the amnesty might not end up lasting long.
Use common sense.
How about we ban that entire commercial — not just here, but on TV in general. It gives me nightmares. (Though I always think — hey, if he ever needs Tommy John or ACL surgery, they’ve got a donor already).
Also, since we’re discussing ground rules, can we refrain from diminutives like “Timmy” etc? I mean, I know “Lincecum” is hard to spell and everything, but the guy deserves a little respect even if he does look like he should be delivering your paper rather than major league out pitches. (Unless you know him personally, of course, though I suspect he doesn’t let you call him “Timmy” either)
And yeah, I’m looking forward to some of the battles we’ll get tonight, including Lincecum/Ichiro, though this isn’t their first: they met in Spring Training. (Results: inconclusive)
And if you want to know fluff stuff like what kind of ice cream he likes and whether he thinks every major league city should have a Space Needle, there’s this.
LINCECUM. Sorry.
Ahem. Could I point out that Lincecum’s change-up appears to be the most effective pitch in baseball by linear weights (with a minimum of 10% pitches thrown to cut off SSS flukes, though you could use 5%)? Dan Haren’s FB has more total value, but Lincecum’s change appears to have the highest per-pitch value. If I’m wrong, someone let me know.
What’s sort of amazing is that it actually appears to be getting better. It was in the high 4’s earlier this year, and is now around 5.3. Check Fangraphs’ leaderboards to get a sense of how otherworldly that figure is.
I just need to mention that the two most amazing things I’ve ever seen at a baseball game were King Felix’s curveball (the Royal Curve) in Tacoma, 2005, and Lincecum’s change (also Tacoma, 2007). Felix actually had scouts laughing and giggling like teenage girls. Lincecum just got gasps from the crowd. I’ll never forget it.
I think it’s silly that we have to ban players names here. So, like, get over it people. We have a fantastic front office now who won’t make many mistakes going forward.
No reason to go all batty every time Lincecum does something good.
Super good times are here, and only going to get better.
“who’s Tim Lincecum?”
“back in college he was th best gamer out there.”
“is he any good?”
“he’s the best…”
“we should put him on our team.”
-Beerfest (slightly altered)
I’m seriously going to declare shift key weekend and just ban everyone.
Am I right in remembering that the Ms haven’t even faced Lincecum in ST? I am looking forward to the first pitch vs Ichiro.
There is that person who keeps emailing Salk with the “Mariners Crap to SF for Tim” trade proposal …
Back in the 2007/2008 offseason, there were lots of trade rumors that Sabean at least discussed trading one of his young starters for a young bat. Most people seemed to think the rumors were about Cain (maybe for Alex Rios) or potentially Jonathan Sanchez (for a lesser bat). I wondered at the time what kind of bat, if any, Sabean would have moved Lincecum for. Remember, this was pre-2008 Lincecum, so he wasn’t quite on the same tier as he is now.
And I’m not saying this in reference to the M’s, as the M’s clearly didn’t have the kind of young bat that would have been required. But my opinion of Sabean isn’t very high and I always wonder if he would have shipped Lincecum away for Hunter Pence or someone similar.
C’mon Derek, you know we’re just joking about he who must not be named:) Humor is all we have left for coping with anything re: Lincecum
I’m interested in seeing where Lincecum lands on Dave’s trade value list. It’s an easy argument to put him at number one.
Before Dave releases his list and we see where he stands on the issue, would anyone offer up another player they’d value ahead of Lincecum? He might win his second Cy Young in his second full season; he’s still young and cheap. I don’t think there’s any pitcher ranked ahead of him.
Maybe you can make an argument that pitchers are inherently riskier and so aren’t worth as much. But then what batter is there? I think you’d have to go back to Albert Pujols and his rookie year. That’s sort of the comparable hitter — an MVP candidate as a rookie…
Yeah, that’s me. 😉
Longoria.
Justin Upton may be higher, too. Adam Jones is likely pretty close.
I bet Lincecum, Jones, Upton, and Longoria are all in the top 5.
milquetoast – I honestly don’t think any pitcher, including Lincecum, should be in the top 5. Injuries to young pitchers are too unpredictable and too frequent IMO. Plus, Lincecum hasn’t signed a ridiculous long-term deal to keep him under team control forever at a discounted rate, so I can’t really see any justification for listing him above Longoria (team control through 2016 for $42.5 million), Braun (team control through 2015), and Hanley Ramirez (team control through 2014). I’d probably include guys like Wieters and Justin Upton in front of Lincecum too.
I am very interested to see where Dave ranks Lincecum.
(Justin Upton, that is)
I’d still put Pujols above Lincecum. I also think Felix is catching up to Lincecum on this list as well.
If it weren’t for A-Rod’s salary, steroid scandal, and his, you know, personality, he’d be up there too. Or would have before this year.
Actually, I don’t remember it as a “semi-ban.” I remember “the next person who mentions him gets banned, I’m not kidding.” Good to see we have an All-Star Game exemption, for obvious reasons.
Looking at my personal list, Lincecum could sneak in at #5. Longoria has to be #1, then Hanley Ramirez. I would also take Braun and Justin Upton over Lincecum, but those 3 are pretty close.
As unbelievably awesome as Pujols and Utley are, I would put Lincecum ahead of both because of age, service time, and contracts, despite some of the risks associated with pitchers.
I don’t think you understand the criteria for Dave’s list that we’re talking about. A-Rod’s salary means he’s not even on the list. With Pujols’ salary, it’s unlikely he’s near the top, either. Felix’s service time means he’s probably not near Lincecum, either.
Yeah, maybe you’re right. What is the criteria we’re using?
Lincecum is in his third season and Felix is in his fifth. Lincecum will be cheaper for longer, and has been the better pitcher. No way Felix would be ranked ahead.
Forget ARod or Pujols. The most valuable players HAVE to be young ones. ARod and Pujols are simply
too expensive. Let’s use fangraphs “value” for instance with Pujols. Last year, Pujols was worth $40 million and was paid $13.9, a difference of 26.1 million. Lincecum was worth $33.9 million and was paid 0.4, a difference of $33.5 million.
And while Adam Jones is good, I don’t think anyone would trade him straight up for lincecum. Jones is a borderline all-star this year, but he’s nowhere near best position player. Lincecum is arguably the top pitcher in the game regardless of age, and he’s just as young. (but imagine we could have had them both). Longoria, with his great contract, is interesting to think about. but he isn’t THAT good, is he? Fangraphs had him worth 24.1 million last year. This year he is worth 16.9 so far. For comparison, pujols has been worth 22.8, Lincecum has been worth 23.8, and Adam Jones has been worth 6.8)
Relatedly, does anyone else think that a top-notch pitcher is more valuable to a playoff team? I wonder if Dave takes that into account. If you make the argument that a great starting pitcher can single-handedly win you games in the post season (which I do), then a team that is in the playoffs would necessarily value a great SP more than a great hitter (Barry Bonds, aside).
No. Position players are more valuable than pitchers.
After reading the Tim Lincecum “Answer Man” blog, I’ve concluded “Timmeh” acts even younger than he looks. Or maybe he’s just really high on life.
Also, here’s my prediction for Dave’s list:
1. Evan Longoria
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Justin Upton
4. Albert Pujols
5. David Wright
Longoria’s contract is just so ridiculously favorable to the Rays that he has to be above Lincecum. Especially combined with the lower risk for a position player and the fact that Longoria is an outstanding defensive player.
I mean, Longoria has a better career UZR/150 than Beltre (17.0 versus 13.5), a career wOBA just behind Adam Dunn (.376 versus .384, accumulated in different ways though). He’s a 23-year-old combining Beltre’s defense with Adam Dunn’s offense, signed through 2016!
Care to back up your statement?
This article is a bit old [deleted long link] so maybe you can offer more recently analyses, but his conclusion is that: “All of this runs counter to most “stathead” thinking. The usual thought process is that a run earned is just as valuable as a run saved, to close approximation. Well, maybe that approximation breaks down in the post-season. More importantly, it does appear that the stronger pitching in the playoffs neutralizes some offenses, and differences in pitching, fielding and speed show up more.”
From a non-statistical standpoint, remember when Randy Johnson won the one-game playoff against the angels, then used him to beat the yankees and trotted him out in relief to shut the door? good times!
I admit, I have to marvel at Lincecum. I’m considerably bigger than he is, and I never threw 90 MPH in my life, let alone how hard he throws.
I really wonder where all that velocity comes from, but I think it’s got to be hip torque.
Plus, I really think of him as the epitome of a guy really enjoying his life with a really cool childish, detached glee.
It’s kind of like imagining what Mozart would’ve been like if he had been born to be a baseball pitcher rather than a musician.
Lincecum will be a free agent someday….
FYI, in his 2008 trade value series, here was Dave’s top 10:
(1) Longoria
(2) Hanley
(3) Sizemore
(4) Wright
(5) Pujols
(6) McCann
(7) Utley
(8) Felix
(9) Lincecum
(10) Tulowitzki
From that group, I think Sizemore has to drop because of his health concerns and Tulowitzki has to drop because his glove hasn’t been quite as good and his bat hasn’t taken the necessary step forward. Justin Upton was #16 last year and I think he’s clearly in the top 10 now, probably top 5. Same goes for Braun, #20 last year but has improved his plate discipline.
It is amazing how much has changed over at fangraphs since Dave did the list last year. New additions include UZR (along with double plays, arms, etc.), wOBA, and win values. WOW!
Does that mean we can have a one-day (rational) Timmay v. Felix discussion?
@Mironos
“What is the criteria we’re using?”
Criteria is plural and Dave is making the list not you and Dave and a bunch of other people.
You probably meant to ask “…what criteria are Dave using?”
From 41-50 plus the names of the just missed guys I’ve been very interested to see how position, age, projected performance (offense and defense) and contract intersect to make a player more or less valuable. Keep up the good work Dave.
I would love to be in Tampa’s position in control of Longoria at a substantial discount until the middle of next decade. It took a lot of terrible finishes and high draft picks to get there, but they are in a very strong position going forward for a small market club. Too bad for them that they play in such a tough division.
I think you’re wrong, as the question had to do with the post-season, where it’s a completely different calculus because of all the days off. A #1 starter that during the regular season would pitch 20% of his team’s innings could easily pitch 35% of his team’s innings in a 7-game series.
Lincecum didn’t face the Mariners during Spring Training, but he did face Team Japan.
Dave’s criteria:
Also: no fatties. (Per the comment uproar over Kung Fu Panda)
Could we, in theory? Yes.
Will we, in practice? Unclear.
My entry in the Dave’s Top 5 office pool:
1 Longoria
2 Upton
3 Lincecum
4 Mauer
5 Pujols
Mauer is the wildcard. Pujols over Hanley because . . . well, just because.
I am counting down the days till Lincecum becomes a FA. We should be able to get him at a home town discount. No? Well that is if he doesn’t hold a grudge against us passing him up. Those commercials that they show with Lincecum and his dad, where he is wearing his Mariners hat just make me more and more depressed that we passed on him. Maybe he is still a Mariners fan deep down inside.
There that is my Lincecum rant for the month.
I still say that it’s amazing how much Lincecum looks like Mitch Kramer (as played by Wiley Wiggins in “Dazed & Confused”.)
Oh…and how thrilling and bizarre is it to see Ichiro!, King Felix, Wak, Rauuuuuuuuuul, AJ and Ryan Franklin all in the same All-Star game?
Ichiro > Lincecum
(A bit of a small sample size, I admit.)
You know, if we’d taken Manny Ramirez in 1991 instead of Shawn Estes, we’d’ve been better. Or Rafael Palmeiro instead of Mike Campbell in ’85. Or Todd Helton in ’95 instead of Jose Cruz? Whew. That would have been awesome. Or Jason Varitek in ’94 — oh, wait, we did draft Varitek. But we traded him and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb, so hey, that worked out great.
That’s Ryan Franklin?!!
Ryan Franklin > American League
Who knew?