Griffey’s incentives
The Mariners didn’t sign Griffey just to bring the fans back – they needed a DH, same as they have for the past three years – but they nevertheless wanted Griffey in part to help sustain casual fan interest while the front office cleaned up the mess from the previous regime. It’s in his contract, which has a bunch of incentives tied to combinations of playing time and attendance.
So how’s he doing? Well, on the one hand, he couldn’t even sell out his own bobblehead night, despite (predictably) homering and (unpredictably) the team coming back on the Langerhans walkoff. On the other hand, the game was practically a sellout and the best gate since Opening Day, and if we could know in advance which would be the exciting games to see, let’s just say we would have had USSM at Safeco on Friday night instead of Saturday.
But assuming you can’t have Griffey bobbleheads every night, is he having the desired impact on attendance otherwise? These questions are always a bit tricky, since it’s affected by things like the day of the week, whether school’s out, or who the opposing team is. Conveniently, to reduce the variables we have to account for, guess who we played the second weekend in August last year. That’s right, the Rays. It was a four-game series then, but to get a reasonable comparison I’m throwing out the Thursday game from 2008 and the Griffey promotion this year.
In 2008:
Friday – 30,220
Saturday – 27,905
Sunday – 30,336
2009:
Saturday – 28,239
Sunday – 28,490
That’s about 1,000 fewer people on average, which pretty well tracks how attendance has been most of the year. I penciled out rough guesses for the rest of the year, as I’m sure the team is doing in a more sophisticated way. The average shouldn’t change much, but there are still the two Yankees series that should draw crowds, and overall the total’s likely going to be between 2.25 and 2.3 million. Of course, after 101 losses an attendance dropoff is to be expected the next year, and arguably Griffey did his job to stave off a worse decline – the trendline since 2002 has been to lose about 300,000 a year except for Bavasi’s fluke contention year in 2007, which would have put you right at 2 million this year. That’s also where his incentives start, sensibly enough.
The other part of the formula is plate appearances, where Griffey is on a pace for 493 and the incentives top out at 500. There are also some attendance bonuses tied to merely being on the roster on July 31 and at the end of the season, but those start at 2.35 million so they shouldn’t come into play, except possibly in a scenario I’ll get to. Anyway, let’s break it down.
- 2 million, 400 PAs, $500K – the breakdown’s more detailed, but consider this earned
- 450 and 500 PAs, $250K each (regardless of attendance) – on track for the first, not the second; they might play him more down the stretch, though
- 2.1-2.3 million, 300-500 PAs, $1 million total – these are incremental, each additional 50 PAs and 50,000 fans in combination is worth $200K; right now we’re looking at $800K for 2.25 million and 450 PAs, and falling short on the last set
- Above 2.3 million, each additional 50,000 at the gate is worth $50K – unlikely
- Above 2.6 million, the same increments are worth $100K apiece up to 3 million – not going to make those numbers unless every game the rest of the season sells out
There were some award bonuses in the contract, All-Star and MVP and stuff like that, that bring the maximum payout to $5 million, but those aren’t happening. Adding in the $2 million base, Griffey stands to cost the Mariners $3.55 million right now. With a little effort on his part, Griffey could pull in $4 million, which you may recall is exactly what we paid Carl Everett.
How can Griffey put in more effort if his incentives depend on attendance, you may ask? Easy – sometime in the next few weeks, announce that he’s retiring at the end of the season. Once this officially turns into a farewell tour, that should bring the wave of nostalgic fans through the turnstiles one more time to get their final looks, and of course he’ll need to play all the time so they can see him. That could push him over the hump for 500 PAs and 2.3 million.
Not that Griffey needs that extra money, or would admit that he’s motivated by it, and he’d probably be the same Ichiro-tickling good clubhouse guy regardless. But these things do matter to the franchise and its connection with the public. That’s why, even ignoring unquantifiable team chemistry, he’s the one guy along with Ichiro who has value to the Mariners outside of direct on-field performance (maybe someday Felix too, but I’d wait on that). And that’s why Griffey’s been worth what he’s being paid this year. If the performance hasn’t been spectacular, neither was the cost, and with the alternatives unappetizing, why not pick the snack that’s tasty even if it’s not any more nutritious? There’s a limit to this approach, though – when it becomes actively detrimental to building a winning roster, you can’t indulge anymore.
You know and I know that this should be it for Griffey. Casual fans may still believe in the possibility he might be back next year. Zduriencik is no doubt anticipating possible 2010 roster scenarios already, which ought not to include Griffey at DH. That means having the delicate conversation about it now, to let Griffey decide how he wants to go out. So Junior, if you’re still planning to retire as a Mariner, just let us know.
Without being too specific in the details, I’ll just say that I basically told one of Griffey’s personal confidants to relay to him that he needs to make up his mind quickly on this. Not something any athlete is actively going to do, of course, so yeah, I’m sure he’s trying to block thoughts of it out of his own mind as well. But it’d be good for all of us to have that clarity…
Sorry – didn’t complete my thought. Heh, only because I wanted a Ken Griffey Junior night a la October 2, 2004. Except I don’t think Selig will present a “Ken Griffey Junior DL Award…”
I love Griffey but it’s time for him to call it a career. I was in favor of bringing him back this year but I wouldn’t support it next year. This team needs more hitting and the DH is an obvious place to start.
I toyed with the notion of asking Jack and Tony if they had spoken to Griffey about retirement, but decided to keep my mouth shut.
I’d guess they’d say it was totally up to Griffey.
Can’t we just bring Junior and Sweeney back next year as the designated “LH And RH Pinch-Hitters Who Never Pinch Hit And Just Tickle People?”
I would personally love that.
Can’t we just bring them in as “Designated Tickle Coach” and leave them both off of the 40 man? They’d both still get to suit up every game and keep building that good chemistry that wins all those games.
Of course comparing August 2008, when the economy hadn’t yet gone into free fall, with August 2009, when there were thousands more people unemployed, particularly ex-WaMu and Starbucks folks, isn’t exactly fair. If Griffey negotiated a contract based on attendance increases but has instead been responsible for attendance not cratering, the M’s negotiated a great contract for themselves.
I believe Sweeney would be the “Designated Hugger and Guy Who Non-Intentionally Makes You Feel Bad About How Much Less Nice You Are Than Him” Coach. 😉
Angie Mentink did an interview with Griffey on his bobble head night. He said it was nice to have the stadium packed and that they could hopefully make a move and have Safeco filled on days when they aren’t giving away bobble heads.
By “make a move” I thought Griffey meant for the Mariners to get closer to contention, but it’s possible that announcing his retirement could bring in some fans as well.
You know, if he did make an announcement about retiring, for his last home game, do you think the Mariners would bend their policy on retiring numbers and raise #24 up on to the outfield wall that night?
I’d guess they’d wait… It’s the sort of thing that would boost attendance, so why not have two events (retirement of the player and retirement of the number) instead of combining them into one?
needed a DH, same as they have for the past three years
Can I argue 6 years? Since 2003 Edger I can’t think of anyone who has been adequate playing the position. I would argue Griffey has been the best Dh in the last 6 years, but that isn’t saying much and I am very biast.
I just hope he announces this is it sooner then later. Griffey, please don’t make this any more awkward then it has to be unless you can pick up your average. The walks are nice, but you are paid to be…well…Branyan.
I was one who held out hope that Griffey would put together one last good year (he’s not that old at 39 is he? (Since I’m 44…39 doesn’t seem overly old these days.) Not anything crazy mind you, but a respectable .270/.330/.470 line. But his .220/.331/.397 just doesn’t cut it! He’s no longer a hitter…he looks walk first hit second. It’s time to go. He needs to see that the M’s are rebuilding the fan love and there are special things happening again. Please Griffey, just step aside and not make the M’s do the difficult thing and look bad to the fans. It’ll be hard to see you go but you can do one last big thing for the M’s and make the right call.
I don’t mind if people think this is dumb. But I’d like to see him get at least one AB next season — not necessarily any more than that — so he could be a four-decade player. Maybe bring him back in September or something when the rosters expand.
I really don’t care much about the ceremony. The M’s have been pretty clear since 2000 that no one else is ever going to wear #24. I’m just glad that when he came back, he didn’t try to slip on #30 or #3.
Wouldn’t that also push back his hall of fame eligibility by another year?
Given Griffey’s personality I find it highly doubtful that he will officially decide anything until very close to the start of spring training again next year. He loves playing the game, being in the clubhouse, and will have a harder time than just about anybody throughout history in coming to grips with the end having arrived. At least it’s a less annoying version of the Brett Favre situation.
Oh, what could have been if Bucky Jacobsen hadn’t blown his knee out and played a few years. No Carl Everett, no Jose Vidro, Asdrubal and Choo still on the team perhaps…
Or, well, they could’ve just held on to Roberto Petagine and given HIM some playing time…
You’re right, an organization willing to give up a young SS for half a year of a platoon DH would’ve found something else to squander him on anyway. Probably a proven veteran RH middle reliever.
Petagine over Carl Everett? You must be joking… (I’m joking of course, the Petagine / Everett situation made me dislike Hargrove very much). Not that Petagine would have necessarily turned out well. Just that there was a shot at it, a bit Branyan-esk, whereas the C-Rex thing had 0 shot at being successful and ended up dragging out way too long anyways as per Hargrove’s norm of sticking to “his guys” waaaay too long, which was one of my principle problems with him.
I was just looking at what Petagine is doing lately, and it turns out he’s playing in Korea now. And I did not know this about him:
“What made him the subject of some discussion among baseball writers and statisticians is that Petagine’s particular strengths as a minor leaguer largely reflected those that would, a few years later, spark vast changes in the perception of value within the baseball community, as documented in (and subsequently fueled by) Michael Lewis’ 2003 book Moneyball.
That Petagine might have been overlooked is, historically speaking, not remarkable. When compared, though, with the high value now placed on a player like Kevin Youkilis — a corner infielder whose minor league career was marked by similarly outstanding OBP and little home run power, albeit seven years later — Petagine’s case serves to illustrate the rapid nature of baseball’s modern statistical revolution.”
In Petagine’s case, he probably reached us too late. If he had had Branyan’s career before this year, bouncing around but still always finding a home, perhaps he would have eventually had this kind of breakout year. With more walks and less power, of course. But because he didn’t establish himself as a bench player first, nobody down the line would even think of him as a starter.
And wipe out another guaranteed sellout next summer? No way. The M’s know how to milk these things for every last possible penny. They will save “#24 Day” for next summer, and plan similar days for Edgar, Buhner, Lou, Randy and probably Moyer. And when they run out of numbers to retires, they’ll do endless anniversay celebrations of the 1995 and 2001 teams. It’s easy, easy money.
Not to knock Randy, but it’s kind of hard to retire his number as long as Ichiro’s out there.
True, forgot about Randy & Ichiro. Maybe they’ll just elect Randy to the M’s Hall of Fame.
Yes, that could create a bit of a “Jim Loscutoff” situation for the M’s.
With them giving Ichiro #51 when he came over from Japan, I think the decision was made then that the organization was done with the idea of Johnson. There will be a #51 up someday, but only for Ichiro.
I’m not a big fan of retiring numbers. I like to think of baseball as going on forever, and a thousand years from now, I wouldn’t want a team forced to upgrade to 16-bit hex numbers because everything from 00 to FF was already retired.
The team has been better this season, particularly in one run games. Jr. has been a contributing factor to that improvement. I stop and watch his every at bat when I have the game on. I am biased and I love watching him play. Oh and He needs to announce his retirement and take a two month victory lap!
Clearly, Randy and Ichiro can EACH have their jersey retired. In the same ceremony in 2018 would be dreamlike, although it’ll never happen.
Here’s hoping Jr. sees the writing on the wall himself and nobody has to tell him 2010 would be an unsightly .200/.310/.350 debacle.
Clearly, Randy and Ichiro can EACH have their jersey retired.
Of course. Not only that, but since Ichiro uniquely has his first name on his jersey, you can avoid the awkwardness of having to put the number up twice, or putting an unsightly slash on the jersey. The name on the retired number 51, clearly, should read “Ichiro Johnson”.
Bill’s incoherent keys to the game:
Okay, so! “Do you speak French” is something someone might ask an escort to determine whether they offer a particular service. “Put it on the board” is… well, there’s a couple ways to look at this, but the most palatable is an update to Sir Mix-A-Lot’s “Put ’em on the glass”. And “good late matchups”… that one’s pretty obvious.
He’s got to be putting us on at this point. He’ll start doing Louie, Louie lyrics soon.
Here’s my dream scenario: Griffey and Randy both retire after this season, and go into the Hall together. Also, in exactly 5 years, the writers get smart and decide Edgar is finally worthy.
Randy, Junior and Edgar all going into the hall in the same year. Make it happen, guys.
Aiiiee … brings back memories of Hawk Harrelson’s home run calls too.
The attendance comparison isn’t completely “fair”, statistically.
The league average is down nearly 2,000 fans per game.
However, the M’s are only down about 1400 fans per game.
Sure, you can’t give that all to Junior. But, you also should look at the pickup of season tickets after the Griffey announcement.
Plus, you have to add on the money that was made selling shirts, hats, and all that other crap. But that isn’t measurable, at least not by us.
Just thoughts.
Which is shared with all the other teams (except for what is actually sold at the stadium store(s), I think)
Which, in keeping with DMZ’s interpretation of the “keys to the game,” is clearly one of the greatest porn names ever.
The Cubs retired #31 for both Fergie Jenkins AND Greg Maddux. Not sure Maddux really deserved it as a Cub – but I guess they felt they had offended him enough by letting him walk to the Braves.
On Friday I took a flyer on a few tix to the last game of the season, just in case…….ideally, Griffey will get to run out to CF to start the game…..but if nothing else I’ll get to see the quickest game of the year.
If the M’s are smart – they’ll induct Griffey into their HOF next season (big crowd) – then retire his number in, say, 3 seasons (big crowd), then have a KGjr day in 5 years when he gets elected into the HOF (big crowd). And of course, on 7/15/2019 they can bring him out for the 20 year anniv of the “house that Griffey built” – the crowds just keep on coming
The M’s have a policy on retiring jerseys. According to Wikipedia (original cite seems to be missing, but this is consistent with what I’ve read before), the honor is reserved for Hall of Fame players who played with the M’s for at least five years, or for career Mariners who have appeared on a Hall of Fame ballot.
Given that, it seems like it’ll be a few years yet before Junior, Edgar, Ichiro or Unit get their numbers retired. But it seems safe to say 11, 24 and 51 will all be going up on the outfield wall. And I’m certain the M’s will retire 51 in honor of both Ichiro and Unit.