Here’s my long-not-awaited 2004 season rough cut estimates of what happens to the Mariners next year
Offense changes
(Martinez-Wilson/Davis-Olerud-Boone-Guillen-Spiezo-Ichiro-Winn-Ibanez)
Winn to Ibanez = -10 runs (yes, I’m serious)
Cameron to Winn = wash
Rotating 3b to Spiezio = +15 runs
Rotating OF subs to McCracken = -10 runs (and that’s generous)
-5 runs
Defense changes
Winn to Ibanez = -10 runs
Cameron to Winn = -20 runs
Rotating 3b to Spiezio = -5 runs (ish)
Rotating OF subs to McCracken = wash (and maybe an upgrade)
-35 runs
Pitching changes
(Moyer, Meche, Pineiro, Franklin, Soriano)
Garcia to Soriano = +15 runs (but really, anyone’s guess)
Franklin to normal Franklin = -10 runs
+5 runs
(Sasaki, Mateo, Guardardo, Hasegawa, Soriano, ??)
Rhodes to Guardardo = +5 runs
Nelson/Benitez to random guy from AAA: -5 runs
+0 runs
That’s an overall drop of 35 runs, which puts the team a hair under 90 wins. What that doesn’t include, though, are the matchup problems with the lineup that we’ve been pointing out, the team’s natural age-related decline (it’s an oooold lineup), the vulnerability to lefties… I would bet that others out there will take a crack at this (I think Peter at Mariner Musings has the gap at ~50 runs overall before he started to take a swing at defense).