A Comparison
Pitcher A: 2.3 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 37% GB%, 88.3 MPH fastball
Pitcher B: 2.3 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 38% GB%, 88.9 MPH fastball
Pitcher A – Ryan-Rowland Smith, in his eight starts since returning from Tacoma. Pitcher B – Jarrod Washburn’s 2009 season, Seattle+Detroit.
Seriously, I’m not sure these two guys could be any more similar. They both throw high-80s fastballs up in the zone, big slow breaking balls, and rely on their outfielders and the dimensions of Safeco Field to make them look good. When their fly balls stay in the park, they’re effective. When the ball heads over the fence, they’re not. They are the exact same guy.
There’s two lessons to be learned from this:
1. Replacing Jarrod Washburn wasn’t hard, and trading him didn’t open up any kind of hole in the rotation.
2. Ryan Rowland-Smith isn’t an ace in the making. Whatever you thought of Washburn as a pitcher, you should think it of Hyphen too. They’re the same guy.
As we saw with Washburn, there’s nothing wrong with having a pitch-to-contact flyball lefty in Safeco with a good outfield defense. The symmetry provided can add up to more than the individual sums. But while RR-S is a decent young arm, don’t buy too much into starts like yesterday. He’s Washburn 2.0.
They don’t have the same contract, though. Not even close.
So, yeah, I think it is safe to say we’re all a lot happier with RR-S.
Attention Mr.Geoff Baker. Please read above. Thanks you.
If RRS has the kind of career Washburn has had, his fans will be thrilled.
I always said that Washburn at $10 per sucked, but Washburn at $350k per would be awesome.
But I thought we were calling Luke French “Washburn 2.0?”
that’d be 2.1
So I guess RRS is Washburn 1.1. I don’t really want to many from this model line, but two of them at the back of the rotation would complement three of the Felix Model.
I’d be extremely happy with a pitching staff of Felix plus four cheap Washburns.
Results wise, we should expect French to be in this family of pitchers. Pitch wise, he’s not that similar. He throws a slider instead of the big slow curve that Wash/RRS feature, and he relies on his change-up a lot more than either of them.
But can RRS throw the Flipper pitch?
I am trying to assess the relative value of a flyball pitcher in the rotation when balancing the good performance at home versus the balls flying over the walls on the road. It seems like there must be a way to take better advantage of their skills by optimizing the rotation schedule (and using the M’s depth of mediocre pitchers). Is there a good source of stats to determine in which other ballparks the hyphen/French-type pitchers will perform well?
I must have bought some of the Washburn hype this year, because I’m surprised how very similar they are. RRS isn’t performing abnormally well or poorly, yet he’s utterly replaced Washburn. Thanks, universe, for providing another example of fungibility! Sorry, media, for unloading an interesting player and reducing your opportunities to phone it in. Most importantly, thanks to Jack for knowing that in the M’s context paying real money for that guy was a waste.
G-man,
To be fair, two 61-year-old Charlie Houghs would complement three Felixes in the rotation, especially in the playoffs.
Washburn just got popped for 6 in the 1st against the Rays… Ouch.
I’d expect those number to go up a little bit after the beating that Washburn is taking today.
An interesting (and humorous) point…since you basically drop back to a three-man rotation during the post-season, anyway.
A perfect example of this was the ’01 D’backs — whose rotation behind RJ and Schilling consisted of Batista, Brian Anderson, Rob Ellis and Albie Lopez.
Since cruising along with fantastic pitching stats, then Washburn is traded and another one hits the DL list again..i waited to see how Mr. Z would handle it. Again, after reviewing Dave’s breakdown, i’m so secure in this management’s decisions. There is a lot of light at the end of this tunnel.
An encouraging thing to remember is that these pitchers are just “supporting role” players that Zduriencik has acquired; On a limited budget, with limited talent to deal.
He has yet to have the opportunity to go all “Bavasi” and drop $40M in free agency. Not that he necessarily would (or should), But it’s just another reminder that smart GMs save their cash for all-star talent and bed-rock caliber players.
While fielding an over-.500 (and, if things break right, division-compatitive) team in the process.
Believe me, I’m being tongue in cheek with that trio. My real point is that there’s room for more than one Washburn clone.
Adam B really has it right when he says these are supporting players. Adding a good #2 starter would make the 2010 rotation playoff adequate to contend for a playoff spot, offense permitting.
Good post, but Dave do you mean “synergy” rather than “symmetry”?
Or, yet another way to word it: a combination of RRS + Safeco + good outfield defense could be said to have “complementarity”, i.e. individual elements that support each other rather than substituting for or even negating each other.
OK, so the question this raises in my mind is how do we keep from acquiring an entire rotation of Washburns? An entire rotation of 4th and 5th starters, even cheap ones, is probably better than we’ve had in some recent years but still isn’t the recipe for success. We need a couple more frontline starters too.
Wabbles, one way is by developing them yourself. Just like the M’s did with Felix. Remember, with great defense behind them, 3 4 and 5 guys can end up 2+ WAR with a little luck. Jarrod Washburn comes to mind. So of course I’d like to see the M’s with Halladay and Felix but they really could make the playoffs with Felix and 5 back end guys…. (The 5th guys is spot start dude) It might not the perfect recipe for success but it’s not a recipe for failure either
Washburn doesn’t have a sexy accent though.
I think the sexy accent should count for .01 WAR!
Thanks to the defense and culture GMZ has established in Seattle, free agent pitchers should be fist fighting each other for the chance to pitch for the Mariners. I doubt we’ll have to make due with a half dozen Lucas Rowland-Washburns in spots 2-5 beyond 2010.
Good pitchers take FA contracts to play in hitter-friendly parks all the time — just ask Francisco Cordero and Aaron Harang, or Jason Marquis and Aaron Cook. Just like Beltre took a contract to play in Safeco. The dollars talk louder than the park. If you have any evidence that pitchers are willing to accept a “pitcher’s park discount” I’d love to see it.
I didn’t say anything about a discount. I’m referring to the caliber of FA pitcher who, in the past, gave Seattle the bird regardless of how much money was on the table.
Such as?
Didn’t Jason Schmidt take less to play for SF?
RRS has yet to throw his catcher under any buses or attribute his success to a new miracle pitch he developed instead of random chance.
Which would be fantastic. Washburn is a quality major league starting pitcher. The problems with Jarrod Washburn, Seattle Mariner were his contract and to a lesser degree his tendency to throw teammates under the bus, neither of which RRS has.
If anyone wants a quick laugh, check out a few Tiger forums. I remember how they thought DD had screwed us after the trade, however, they sure have changed their tune. There’s even a thread about how well Robles has been doing since coming over to us. Anyway, I have to wonder how many fans in Detroit will have this be a wake-up call to start learning about things like FIP, BABIP, and UZR and how they impact pitchers. Meh, who am I kidding, I’m sure they’ll just chalk it up to a Washburn just “not having enough heart” and being a choke artist.