Lopez Putting Himself In The History Books
Last night, Jose Lopez hit his 25th home run. One reason that this is notable is that he now has more homers than walks, of which he has 24. Historically, this is fairly unique. There are only thirty players in baseball history who have finished a season with 25 or more homers and fewer than 25 walks. If interested, here’s the list.
Want to be really encouraged? There are some great players at early stages of their careers on this list. Want to be really depressed? There are some really terrible players on this list, too.
What is most interesting to me is how few infielders there are. The list is almost entirely strong athletic outfielders who had a ton of power but hadn’t figured out how to play the game yet. That’s the Albert Belle/Juan Gonzalez/Sammy Sosa/Bo Jackson kind of player type, and Lopez just isn’t that kind of player.
The only other guys on the list who played second base during their season with 25+ homers and less than 25 walks were Alfonso Soriano (who soon moved to the outfield, where he probably should have been all along) and Jorge Cantu, a 1B/DH type who has played out of position for most of his career.
One of the reasons we constantly hear talk about Lopez moving to third base is that he has the kind of offensive skillset that we just don’t see in a middle infielder. He’s not a good defensive second baseman by any means, but it’d be interesting to see if there was a similar groundswell to move him to a corner infield spot if he was more of a traditional offensive middle infielder with the same defensive skills.
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I suspect that Lopez would also stand out from the others if we looked at the patterns for where the HRs landed that were hit by the guys on that list.
According to Fangraphs’ UZR, he’s about avarage as a 2B for his career.
Is there anyway to gage what Lopez’s UZR numbers would be like if he were at 3B 1B using his data at 2b?
Average != good.
We’re assuming that he had the same basic Offensive Wins Above Replacement Value Stat Thing, but instead of power, he hit 310 with walks for 380 OBP and whatever slugging makes the WABRVST come out even?
My current understanding is that 2b and 3b are about the same in terms of defensive adjustment. I’d play him wherever his defensive skillset plays best. I had always assumed that what Lopez does well isn’t what’s more important at 3rd than at 2nd, or they’d have moved him to 3rd when he stopped being a SS in the minors. Or did he move to 2nd because he was blocked by Beltre at 3rd?
Dave of all people would know that, he even writes for the site. I can see why you would have a problem with that statement though, on Monday he wrote this about Orlando Hudson:
Orlando Hudson’s UZR for the last three years,
-4.5, -5.1, 0.5. (around average)
Jose Lopez’s UZR for the last three years,
0.2, -5.2, 2.1. (not a good defensive second baseman)
Ok. The way average is worded in each piece makes it look like you’re being more harsh on Jose Lopez.
Strunk & White post:
Please don’t write “fairly unique”.
It could be a fairly remarkable season, or an almost unique season, but it can’t be a bit unique, any more than the Angels could come largely first in the AL West this year.
Now, if someone else writes that Jose has taken “less” walks than homers, I’ll have grammatical apoplexy.
Orlando Hudson is in the “living off his reputation” phase of his career as far as defense is concerned. Jose Lopez never earned a similar reputation. That affects how people end up framing and interpreting statements about their defense. Also, they may be roughly equal now, but Lopez is significantly younger. That makes for a career trajectory in which he is likely to be a defensive liability (not just average) for a number of years. So in the grand scheme of things, it’s misleading to think of them as equivalent players.
We’ve been debating whether this offensive outbreak season from Lopez is sustainable or not. Looking at that list provided, it’s pointless to compare to a 36 year old Andre Dawson or a 31 year old Dante Bichette to Lopez at 24.
A quick glance at the list isn’t helping me in that argument in terms of guys whose AVG/OBP/SLG correlate and around the same age as Jose, as these 5 guys’ careers are vastly different:
Lopez (age 24): .268/.301/.467
Juan Gonzalez (age 25): .295/.324/.594
Albert Belle (age 24): .282/.323/.540
Jesse Barfield (age 23): .253/.296/.510
Jorge Cantu (age 23): .286/.311/.497
Bo Jackson (age 25): .246/.287/.472
I wonder if in 20 years we’ll be talking about players with “Jose Lopez skills.”
When I read that someone is not a good defensive player by any means, that implies to me that he’s a butcher, which Lopez does not seem to be. That was my point.
Dave’s point about Lopez’ offense is interesting. What I wonder: Since almost all his homeruns seem to be of the “barely enough” variety (there was a LL post about that a while back), how sustainable do we consider his offensive production to be?
His BABIP is .268 after .311 last year. What is the average BABIP? And if it is higher how much would that add into his OBP
The related point is that he may have more value playing for a different team. If the Mariners can find a team who recognizes that point, they may be able to trade López for a player who will similarly have more value to the Mariners.
I see 2 ways of looking at this. Either Lopez sees more fly balls turn into outs due to simple regression, or Lopez is almost 25 and growing into his body. What was once warning track power could now be ‘barely over the fence’ power and we should see continued growth.
Completely agree … what the Mariners are looking for and what he provides are not the same. His skill set would be of greater value to another franchise at this point.
I don’t understand the constant drumming of Lopez. Is he a three hole hitter…no. But we don’t have any in the line-up that currently is. If we had Lopez in the 6 or 7 spot where is belongs, people would love the production we were getting out of a bottom third in the line-up player.
Does he swing at a lot of pitches? Yes. Does he have great plate dicipline? No. But not every player on your team needs to be the same. Everyone loves Branyan, and he is a similar player.
I am not saying Lopez is a great player, but what I am saying is that he is a nice piece.
I’m so confused by this. Why would you move someone off a premium defensive position when he’s providing league-average performance, as well as being both young and cheap? What could the possible benefit be of moving him to 3B? Is there a 2B currently blocked? An oversupply in the market? Someone please explain to me why I keep hearing this topic come up.
This seems like a perfect sell-high opportunity, if only we could find someone to fill the position.
Yeah, it’s rather misleading wording by Dave; “He’s not a good defensive second baseman by any means” in theory has a wide range of possible interpretations, but in practice it does not have connotations of “he’s an average defensive second baseman”.
Technically, yes “average” is included in “not good by any means” but that’s not how most readers are going to interpret it. If someone said that “USSMariner is not a good blog by any means”, I am NOT going to be thinking that that person intends to say that “USSMariner is an average blog”.
Everyone loves Branyan, and he is a similar player.
Russell Branyan is not similar to Jose Lopez in any way whatsoever.
Dave’s point about Lopez’ offense is interesting. What I wonder: Since almost all his homeruns seem to be of the “barely enough†variety (there was a LL post about that a while back), how sustainable do we consider his offensive production to be?
Well, Lopez has had pretty good doubles power (and for younger players, that turns into HRs as they age), and hit for some power in the minors at a young age for his league, so I would argue the 25 HRs isn’t a complete Brady Anderson-style fluke- but given his predilection for weeks-long funks at the plate, he could regress some, too. Also, he has high GIDP rates, which aren’t what you want at the heart of your order.
The guy I like comparing Jose Lopez to is actually this guy, who we should recognize, and the career path is sort of the same between Guillen and Lopez, if you look at it from the 50,000 foot level: Latin player, no patience at the plate but not really a K machine, OK power and average helping offset the lack of patience, came up at a young age in a bad organization before he was ready, considered a vague disappointment for a number of reasons, but eventually improved to be an acceptable offensive player. The fact that Jose Lopez can play acceptable 2B while having comparable offensive skills to Jose Guillen makes him a better player, though.
Oh, and Jose Guillen? Also on that list Dave linked to of “more HR’s than K’s”.
I-Rod is on that list three separate times. I’m not sure what that says, except that if that list contains those who are “fairly unique” then he is uniquely so.
A quick glance at the list isn’t helping me in that argument in terms of guys whose AVG/OBP/SLG correlate and around the same age as Jose, as these 5 guys’ careers are vastly different:
Of the guys on that 30 player list you called out, I’d eliminate the 90+ K guys (Belle, Barfield and Bo), two of whom who are also more athletic: Barfield (who was a CF), Jackson (who was pretty much All-Awesome)- Lopez really is not a hackmaster like all three and doesn’t have good footspeed like Bo and Barfield had.
Cantu and Bell, though… well, you could take their careers (ignoring Bell’s fluke 47 HR year in 1987, which he never got close to again, like Brady Anderson in 1996) along with Jose Guillen’s years after age 27 and Jose Lopez’s last year and this year, mix them all together, and you’d think it was the same player. Here are some Triple Crown + OPS’s just to demonstrate:
.289 17 89 .764
.265 21 86 .724
.279 16 89 .772
.264 20 97 .738
(That’s Lopez in 2008, Bell in 1991, Guillen in 2008 and Cantu in 2009, for the record.)
The difference is, of course, that again, Lopez is an average 2B, as opposed to an below average OF like Guillen, or a pretty terrible OF like Cantu.
You can use this to make an argument for keeping Lopez at 2nd though, can’t you? If he’s an average defender while offering unusual power at his position (assuming it continues) then he’s a net asset. It’s supposed to be easier to find offense among first and third basemen, his other possible positions, so why not keep him at 2nd and shop the greater supply ( = lower cost) at the corner infield spots? You can mitigate his defensive liability somewhat by putting a better (ie rangier) SS next to him, which the M’s have now done. As long as they don’t put slugs at 1st and 3rd, you can live with his defense.
Though, like Beltre, he’d have more value to a team in a home park with a shallower LF, so I can see the case for trading him too. What I have a harder time seeing is moving him off second base. I guess if Beltre goes and there’s no money (or the money goes to higher priorities) to sign a new 3B, you can pencil him in as a placeholder while you’re hoping for Tui to develop, but that doesn’t seem very optimum to me.
Uniquely fairly unique. Nice touch, joser.
Quite a few of us suspect Jose Lopez has already reached his plateau. Unfortunately, that Joe Pepitone comp won’t change any minds. It could mean absolutely nothing, but Pepitone was the exact same player at age 30 that he was at 22 and he and Lopez are statistical twins.
Another interesting stat.
By the time Ichiro retires, he will likely have 150+ Intentional walks. He’s at 142 right now. And I doubt he will reach 150 career home runs.
The only 2 other players with the same statistical oddity – Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn.
The real man of genius is Joe Pepitone. He was the first player to use a hair dryer in the locker room! That’s some self-confidence.
You can mitigate his defensive liability
Why is average defense a liability?
Because assets and liabilities are assessed against the opportunity cost, and (at last check) defense is still undervalued by the market.
It helped that he wasn’t using it on his head.
Not very optimum is a gem, too.
Because assets and liabilities are assessed against the opportunity cost, and (at last check) defense is still undervalued by the market.
So what’s the opportunity cost- not cutting trading Lopez and finding someone who’s -5 runs on offense/+5 on defense for the league minimum?
(Also, arguably, Lopez isn’t a particularly good offensive player compared to other players. The triple crown numbers look OK, but he doesn’t walk and he grounds into a lot of DPs. This is another argument for not moving him off of 2B as long as he’s playing competent defense.)
I can’t tell if you’re just reporting something strange or mocking Lopez for his lack of plate discipline.
Who were the posters saying Lopez isn’t a power hitter? Among second basemen he’s 5th in HR, 4th in doubles, and 7th in ISO. And that despite playing in a home park that kills him. He’s replacement level at home and an “all-star” on the road this year.
I think Murphy’s Law is going to be the key. If the M’s hold on to him, 2009 will turn out to be a career year. If they trade him he’s the next Guillen (Carlos not Jose).
Did anyone mention Hank Blalock? He has more homers then walks as well.
I’m not sure I get the narrative here. Jose Lopez is an average defensive 2nd baseman at 24, and he has some power, at least to 10ft past the wall right down the left field line.
But that doesn’t add up to being an above average offensive player. Out of 9 qualified AL 2b Lopez is 8th in OPS. Middle of the pack in SLG. And dead last in OBP and runs.
Sell high.