The M’s Defense
Dave · September 29, 2009 at 9:32 am · Filed Under Mariners
My first post of the day over at FanGraphs is dedicated to looking at the M’s defense, which has been the best in baseball by a mile this year. No one’s even close. The M’s have been 84 runs above an average defensive club this year, which is why their mediocre pitching staff (9th in the AL in FIP) can lead the league in ERA.
We’ve talked about it all year, but in case you had any doubt, this is the best defensive team the Mariners have ever put on the field. This is one of the best defensive teams anyone has ever put on the field.
My question would be: how sustainable is this? I’m guessing that to SOME extent it should be sustainable, but if you figure Gutierrez is due for regression, the team is as well.
Even with Endy injured and Balentien, Hall, etc replacing him. Even with Betancourt playing nearly half the season. Even with “only average” Lopez at second. I’d say there’s actually room for improvement.
Hey Dave can you set that guy over at Fangraphs strait? He’s saying that the Mariners are only the best defensive team of the decade.
Dave…The 2001 Mariners were considered a pretty good defense. I couldn’t find the 2001 team’s UZR. Do you know how the two teams compared?
I’d say there’s actually room for improvement.
Well, here’s the thing: the Yankees have been the best offensive team in baseball this decade (by far), but they aren’t leading the league every year this decade. They lead some years, are top 3 pretty much every year.
Given that there’s a higher spread of +/- that’s possible in terms of being best/worst on offense as opposed to defense, I think it unlikely that the M’s are going to crush the AL every year (though maybe Dave will present evidence that says “Sure they will, and you’re wrong, ec”). Regression to the mean would tend to predict this (and this year might be kind of like Ichiro’s 2004 as the Mariners defense goes- a little bit of an outlier, but not ridiculously so). I also tend to think it’s not like other GMs won’t try a “load up on cheap defense” strategy in years to come.
Yep, 84 appears to be the highest UZR that I can find on Fangraphs. I remember when we were wondering whom Jack Z. would acquire in a trade — Hardy, or Jack Wilson – I dared ask (I was hoping Hardy): could our defense top 80? With a week left in the season, here we are! Rockin’!
As I understand it, the data that is used to calculate UZR only goes back to 2002.
Great googly moogly – Franklin, Beltre and Ichiro alone account for almost half of that UZR. Wow.
As urchman pointed out, UZR only goes back to 2002. But Defensive Efficiency can be a good rough indicator of team defense. It measures the percentage of balls in play that are turned into outs.
In 2009, the Mariners have a defensive efficiency of .712 (second to the Dodgers at .714). In 2001, the Mariners had a DE of .727 (!) leading the league by a huge margin–second place was St. Louis at .704.
For contrast, last year the Mariners’ DE was .682, tied for 26th.
I think the 2001 Mariners defense may have been better.
I know that defensive efficiency is just a rough number to look at but I wonder why the big difference with the Dodgers. It seems to my that if they have a more efficient defense at turning balls in play into outs, then they should be closer to the M’s in UZR then they are.
I posted once that the 2003 team had a great defense because it committed only 65 errors all season. Someone replied that that team was sure-handed, meaning they didn’t drop or bobble the ones they reached.
Then the person referenced a more advanced statistic (can’t remember what it was) that reinforced the point that 2003 was a great defensive team.
THEN they showed that same stat for the 2001 team and it was phenomenal. I think that defense probably was better but WOW.
Even with Beltre out, Yuni in and Lopez falling asleep at the wheel at times.
Remember in January at the library when the front office told us that some days we would run out three centerfielders and we broke into applause. 🙂
Defensive efficiency is kind of like ERA – if you don’t have anything else, its okay, but it’s not great. It treats all balls in play turned into outs as equals, when a play made in the OF is more valuable than a play made in the IF, and thus will underrate great outfield defenses.
The 2001 team was terrific defensively, no doubt. I’ll see if MGL can scrounge up his team UZR total for the M’s based on the Stats info and run a comparison.
Sure, I understand. On the other hand, the 2001 Mariners outfield was pretty good. Cameron 2001 was probably one of the few who could come close to matching Gutierrez 2009.
One thing that amazes me is that I think we’ve tangibly discovered how incredibly important OF defense is at all three positions.
Traditionally, you stick a big bat, weak glove in LF and call it good. If that bat is big enough, of course, the overall value is a net positive. Similarly, traditionally, the shortstop position is glove first then bat – and the hope is the bat doesn’t counteract the glove enough to make the player a net negative.
What stats analysis has given us, however, is that a batted ball in the OF that isn’t fielded has the potential to do much greater damage than one that’s hit in the infield*. I think we’ve seen in Seattle especially how much having a good OF defense can really help you in the run-prevention department. To go from one of the worst LF in the league to having some good-if-not-über-great defenders really has helped the team in the win/loss column. Make the same upgrade, or close to it, in CF, and you can really see a huge difference.
Now the trick is improving the offense. As you said a month ago, Dave, that’s really the big test of Zduriencik…
*Well, that is, if I’m making a correct assumption here, which may or may not be the case, but even if not 100% true, it’s something that I’ve come to recognize.
I see said the blind man! Thanks Dave, I went and took a closer look at the Dodgers individual UZR’a and sure enough, their outfield grades out pretty poorly with Manny and Ethier out there. Huzzah for Death to Flying Things!!!!
What stats analysis has given us, however, is that a batted ball in the OF that isn’t fielded has the potential to do much greater damage than one that’s hit in the infield
This reminds me of why Russ Davis in left field was an even worse idea than Russ Davis at third base.
The glove with the hole in it statue will always be thought of as the Russ Davis monument by me.
I suppose I should think of it as the result of an Edgar line drive. But I always think of Davis when I walk by it.
I can’t remember Russ in left field. Perhaps that’s a good thing.
It didn’t last long, but it was incredibly traumatic for all concerned.
Hey Dave can you set that guy over at Fangraphs strait?
That’s pretty cold.
No farther than the Stait of Juan de Fuca.
O,K,?