Baker On Twitter
Geoff Baker has a pretty good piece on the rise of the power of Twitter as a hub for rumor mongering and its effect on how teams interact, especially at the winter meetings. The piece is good, but I want to focus on a Zduriencik quote that is sort of related:
“We’ll share it,” he said. “A lot of it’s just rumors, dialogue from people in the lobby. I chuckle sometimes on a couple of the names I hear [linked to the Mariners]. I’ll go, ‘That’s funny.’ And then a day or two later, I’ll get a call from that agent and I’ll go, ‘Ah-ha!’ ”
Zduriencik says this happens far more often than people think.
“If you really think about it, you have to create a market,” Zduriencik said. “So, how do you create a market? You create it by, if I talk to you, talk to you and I talk to you, then I can go tell you, ‘Hey, I just talked to three general managers.’ Which I did. I’m just creating my own market. That’s what it does. And it spurs action.”
This is one of the reasons why I pitch logic tests for rumors. Agents, and teams to a lesser extent, push this kind of false information all the time, trying to put themselves in better bargaining position. Keep this in mind when you hear stuff about a certain team being linked to a player who just doesn’t make any sense for that team – the reporter may be acting on information that he was given for the sole purpose of creating a market.
You would think that they would link players to more plausible teams… but I guess if you link them to the implausible ones it creates a bigger artificial market.
But still, what GM is going to fall for that? Dayton Moore, maybe. Maybe Ed Wade. But neither of those guys have enough money to sign the big name guys.
I don’t think Wade was duped into signing Lyon, or Moore heard rumors about a big market for Kendall. And it seems like the smart GMs are smart enough to ignore it anyway. I think the rumor mongering all adds up to just a bunch of fan and reporter speculation and not an actual change in the dollar value or length of contracts.
I bet Brian Sabean would fall for stuff like this. Another advantage of these twitter rumors is that they ironically give more leverage for the agents as well. With more teams appearing to be interested in a player, that agent has a higher bargain position. This way, twitter could drastically alter salaries and length of contracts, at least hypothetically.
Jason Bay anyone?
Which is exactly what Jason Bay’s agent has been doing all this time! It’s been especially interesting to watch this during this winter, because the M’s have “so much” money to throw around. Thanks rampant media, agents and players alike!
Here’s hoping Seattle never becomes a market like Boston and New York. I’d hate to have to deal with this crap every single year!
This was on mlbtraderumors.com so take it for what its worth but I thought it pertinent to this discussion.. [no]
I just threw up in my mouth a little.
Timely post, give the Lackey rumor that is circulating this morning.
[off-topic]
Lackey showing up for a physical in Boston (still not confirmed) is alot different then the examples pointed out in this article.
I don’t think that someone ‘showing up for a physcial’ is the type of rumor that led him create this post, or was the point he was trying to make.
I don’t think it’s a question of any GMs “falling for” this directly. This is an attempt to create a baseline “conventional wisdom” about what a player is worth — and we know conventional wisdom in baseball is a powerful thing — whether it’s a former all star who might be in decline, or a marginal player who’s still trying to stick in the big leagues at all. In that sense it doesn’t really matter whether any of the “linkings” is plausible, because it’s the aggregate impression — lots of teams still think this guy might be worth what he’s asking — that is the goal. And the audience for this is much more the media and (through them) the fanbase than it is the GMs directly.
Signing any of these players is a risk, and risk tends to drive down price. By building the perception that there’s both widespread interest and a rough consensus on price for a player, they’re creating political (or PR) cover for the GM who actually signs that player at that price. Instead of “paying too much” for a questionable player “nobody wanted” he can claim he was paying “the market rate” for a player “in demand by many clubs.” As a result he may not hold quite the hard line he should when asking for a risk discount because he won’t get criticized for paying what he was expected to pay. It’s the GM who lets a player “get away” to be signed by another club “at the going rate” who feels the heat.
Of course, some GMs will be immune to that, but I think the difference is less smart/stupid than it is confident/worried: the GM who is concerned about his relationship with his club’s owners and/or the fanbase is going to be more susceptible to this, even if it’s entirely subconscious. Of course, you could claim that is one of the things that sets the smart GMs apart — they rely on player valuations that aren’t affected by “gut feelings” or other factors that are so easily influenced — and I wouldn’t argue, but I don’t think we can deny that there are still plenty of “by the gut” GMs out there.
I don’t know about that… My first thought about the Lackey thing today was “a physical before a trade? Sounds like Boston’s trying to create hype for something they won’t do.” And ESPN reported it as a “sure sign.”
That sounds like “creating a market” to me, anyway.
Lackey is a free agent. There’s no trade involved, so the only reason he’d go to Boston for a physical is if a deal were close.
As a government teacher we talk about whether news drives the media or does media drive the news. It applies so well to baseball, this is a great story.
Sorry, mistype on my part. I’m aware that he’s a free agent, but I just don’t necessarily think he’s going to Boston because he’s taking a physical there…
ESPN rumor central has the Mariners linked in a 3 team deal that would have Halladay going to the Phillies, Cliff Lee going to Seattle, and prospects a plenty going to Toronto
My first thought on this is that it doesn’t pass the smell test that Dave describes in his post.
Why would Philadelphia essentially swap Lee for Halladay? It doesn’t make sense to me. Unless there is something I am missing?
obviously having Cliff Lee would be great, he’s better than having Lackley, though the farm system will take a hit. Both rumors about Lackey and Lee both make me question “when is the Felix signing going to happen?” Does Toronto need a 2B? Shipping Morrow Lopez among other top prospects may not be too bad, so I’m not against it.
Also today more big news out of the M’s: According to MLBtraderumors we signed our veteran catcher: Eliezer Alfonzo
does anyone think troy glaus would be a fit for us? has the ability to play 3rd, 1st, or DH
By several accounts Halladay’s top three demands ofr a trade are (1) play to a winner (2) play for a team that trains near is offseason home in Florida, and (3) play for a winner. The Phillies meet all those conditions, and in fact might meet them well enough that he’s willing to not just allow a trade to them but sign an extension with them as well. If that’s the case, whereas Lee wants to be a free agent, then the certainty of locking up Halladay is a better deal for the Phillies than the uncertainty of trying to outbid the Yankees (or whomever) to retain Lee.
The flip side of that is that the Mariners are potentially blowing up the farm system to get a one-year rental. I love Zduriencik, and I trust he knows how to value players correctly, but done wrong this has the whiff of Bedard to it.