Francisco Liriano
Heard a rumbling that the M’s are kicking the tires on Francisco Liriano, who the Twins are willing to move for the right offer. The M’s are definitely in the market for a starting pitcher, and given the horde of low-upside, back-end starters already in the organization, a high risk/high reward type makes sense. Rather than spending money on a free agent, however, it sounds like the M’s would rather focus on a younger arm such as Liriano, who they would control through 2012, giving them long term upside if he has a good season.
Liriano, you’ll probably remember, was one of the game’s best pitchers a few years ago. In 2006, he was basically a left-handed Felix Hernandez. He then blew out his arm, missed all of 2007 and half of 2008 before returning to the big league mound. He returned minus a few MPH on his fastball and without much in the way of command, and he hasn’t’ been able to get back to what he used to be. By traditional metrics, his 2009 was a disaster, as he went 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA.
However, he pitched much better than that. His FIP was 4.87, and his xFIP (which adjusts for HR/FB rate) was 4.55, which puts him in the same vicinity as guys like Jered Weaver and Kevin Millwood. Not the ace he used to be, but a useful pitcher who misses enough bats to overcome the walk and home run problems.
Beyond just the possibility that he regains some velocity and gets back to something closer to 2006 form (unlikely, but you never know), Liriano is the kind of pitcher who would most benefit from Safeco Field. He ran a huge platoon split last year, as he destroyed lefties but had massive problems with right-handed hitters. 20 of the 21 home runs he allowed were to RHBs. A flyball pitcher who gives up home runs predominantly to RH hitters can thrive in Safeco, as the park neutralizes their biggest weakness.
So, even if Liriano pitches like he did in 2009, you’d expect him to run a 4.xx ERA for the Mariners. In a lot of ways, he’s like Brandon Morrow, but suited better to the team’s park.
Liriano makes a lot of sense for the Mariners. The Twins have depth in the rotation and are still interested in Jarrod Washburn (who would likely give them a pretty decent close-to-home discount), so if they can get value for Liriano, it makes sense for them as well.
What would the M’s have to give up? I’d imagine Jose Lopez’s name would at least come up. The Twins are looking for either a second baseman or a third baseman (and maybe both), have a line-up of good LH hitters and mediocre RH bats, and care little for on base percentage. He’s not the defender that the Twins like, but he fits their offensive style, and more importantly, he fits their payroll. It’s no secret that the M’s prefer to trade Lopez, and Minnesota is probably the most likely team of any in baseball to be interested.
A Lopez-Liriano swap would allow the M’s to pursue a guy like Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez to play second base, giving them another switch-hitter to hold down the position until Dustin Ackley is ready. And Liriano provides more upside at a lower cost than any free agent pitcher the M’s could sign.
Like the Luke Scott rumor that I heard a month or so ago, this one makes sense. Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, of course, but it has the chance of being the type of move that works for both Seattle and Minnesota. We’ll see if the M’s and Twins can put this one together.
Not to encourage Wag, but [encouraging Wag]
In essence you are saying “I don’t believe WAR.” But you provide absolutely no data as to why WAR is not reliable, so as far as your basic argument goes, no, you have have not provided any bit of information to support your basic argument.
You are simply choosing to disbelieve the work that has been done by others without providing the least bit of substantive information as to why that information should be discounted. If you want your opinion to be taken the least bit seriously, you need to provide substantive information as to why your opinion trumps the careful reviewed and vetted analyses conducted by others who have spent years studying the information (and many of whom have been hired by MLB clubs to assist in evaluations of clubs.)
******
You might also note that in the above I completely set aside the fact that you are using WAR for uses to which it is not intended. That’s because I think the issues I outlined above are more fundamental. If you can’t get past the concept of what is required to make a coherent, intelligent argument based upon reasoned analysis, then other considerations are moot.
what we’re talking about here isn’t really that sophisticated. It involves the basic ability to prepare hypotheses and collecting information to examine those hypotheses. It’s pretty much the basic stuff that I expect employees working for me to be able to do.
In the real world, most people who come in shooting from the hip with opinions that can’t be substantated don’t get taken very seriously. If that’s an unacceptable burden for you, I suggest that you will probably be happier posting your comments as places such as seattlepi.com and sports.yahoo.com where intelligence is not a requirement for participation.
Two comments on Lopez: (1) Just as we think that Safeco will be able to help Liriano or League improve upon their numbers, it is likely that Lopez is far more valuable outside of Safeco. His home/road splits were ridiculous. On the road last year he was: .313/.348/.535/.883, and he hit 17 homeruns with 56 RBI. Those are pretty good numbers and dwarf what Lopez or Hudson bring to the plate. (2) The M’s do not have a lot of power from the right side. The importance of this is elevated when they go outside Safeco, and that is why Lopez’ numbers are important to this team. I wonder if it is worth consider a platoon of some sort at home, especially against right-handed pitchers…
Your way out of line man. What gives you the right? you have yet to really explain why my example of the Red Sox this offseason when using WAR isn’t very accurate.
John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Marco Scutaro, and Jeremy Hermida (13.0 war)
VS
Jason Bay, Billy Wagner, and Takashi Saito (4.3 war
WAR tells us that the players the Red SOx are adding VS the players they are subtracting will give them 8.7 more wins.
I just can’t believe that.
I check this site about 20 times a day and really enjoy reading everything on here and joining the conversations. I have yet to say anything that has been too far fetched. I just have a hard time justifing using over complicated forms of statistics to determin if a player is good/not or if he fits on a team, its just dosen’t tell the whole story. I played baseball since I was a kid all the way through college and know how important factors outside of statistics are. You would never hire someone simply based on a resume. Word of mouth, attitude, reputation, and experience are all major factors that affect statistics, trades, and players. To ignore them is ignorant. Those factors must ALWAYS be considered. I try to follow everything happening in the sports world and figure that along with my experience gives me the ability to talk without being told im an idiot. Im not saying i’m always right, not even close. But come on, have some respect for people. I am just as much as a fan as you are. Taking my comments off and insulting me is not necessary. If you want me to stop coming to this site then I begruginly will. I was just hoping you would relize that it brings a lot to the debate to hear all the aspects and have a different form of opinion.
Steve, Wag played SPORTS.
Argue not with Lord High Magnificence Wag, Sports Player of Fantastic Justice or you will be declared out of line.
your an idiot. I even stated that dosen’t make anything I say right. But it does help develop theories and opinions that are more educated in certain areas than someone who hasn’t experienced it.
Everytime someone mentions they played sports you guys jump right to that statement.
Incidentally, I someday aspire to deal with people with the class and grace Mr. Nelson always shows. I am, however, nowhere near that point right now. To wit:
1) That’s not for you to decide, it’s for the moderators; 2) He’s not way out of line.
Steve has every right to respond to you as he sees fit without violating any site rules.
You’re confusing your beliefs with a factual argument. Again.
You have never once made a coherent argument based on any sort of logic on the site. That’s pretty spectacular in its own right, and the latter sentence quoted above is totally accurate but for the inclusion of ‘far’.
The classic ‘I don’t understand something, so it’s wrong’ device, fabled crutch of the stupid throughout history.
1) Holy crap, you went to college?;2) Yes, SPORTS!
What in the blue hells are you talking about? If Steve doesn’t hire people based on their resumes, it invalidates the use of advanced baseball stats? I love the casual accusation of ignorance, too.
What a bizarre conceit. What would give you the ability to talk without being told you’re an idiot is something in your brain that prevented you from saying idiotic things. Trying to follow sports means you are to be respected?
Accuracy at long last!
What about you deserves respect? You are the very pinnacle of anti-intellectualism.
Right, but I’m much much brighter than you.
It actually appears to be.
Thank god for that.
Nobody in the site looks to shut down dissent. But your opinions and arguments add nothing. Nothing! Go away.
My life has reached whole new summits of irony.
So not to say that you should stop coming to this site, Wag, but what is it specifically that your contributions are adding to the experience of those of us reading this site? Do you think we read this blog that is highly focused on sabermetric analysis of baseball because we think that they are “over complicated forms of statistics to determin if a player is good/not or if he fits on a team”?
Or is it possible, perhaps, that we read this blog because we don’t have any problem justifying the use of those statistics? I’d say that, for the most part, it’s the latter. Of course, there are other dissenters such as yourself that think it really contributes to every discussion to bring up the same old tired and pathetic arguments that have constantly been shown to be just that–tired and pathetic. But, in general, this blog is followed by people that care about sabermetrics and believe they are a valuable and useful way of determining a player’s worth, and yes, whether or not he belongs on a team.
If you have a problem with that, get over it or get lost. No offense, buddy. I know it sounds harsh, but if you are diametrically opposed to the main source of material in a certain blog, then it seems that your input is going to be seen as stupid, unwelcome, and irritating. Sure, that doesn’t seem fair, but since when was life fair?
You have a problem with Jeff and Graham and Steve and Dave and Derek getting all over your ass when you try to tell them that an area in which they happen to excel is just a bunch of crap. Well what do you expect dude? If you walk into someone’s house and start critiquing what they say and do, they’re probably going to throw you out, and will be completely justified in doing so. So far, they haven’t decided to block you from commenting, but if they do, they have every reason.
So far you haven’t contributed anything worthwhile to this post, and in fact have completely redirected the conversation away from the original point–that a Liriano/Lopez trade is a possibility. Until you can start commenting without rehashing every tired disproven article on this site, expect a lot more responses like the ones you’ve been receiving.
[You’re] 100% right. But the couple times [he’s] mentioned playing baseball his whole life you all say [that’s] virtually useless. Sounds like you guys initially insult him and discredit his [life’s] work. While you guys chose to analyze the game, he chose to actually play it.
Which would probably make him a better baseball player and a worse analyst, no? You don’t have to have been a horse to be a jockey.
Hey, uh, “blazerbeliever01” you realize that we can pretty clearly see that you’re Wag, right?
Banned for sockpuppetry as the final straw.
DMZ, did he really do that??
Apologies to those of you that actually wanted to discuss the merits of Dave’s trade idea in this comment thread.
Yep.
Wow. Just wow.
So is there any more news along these lines? I’m guessing that we probably have to wait for the weekend to end.
What other realistic trades might present themselves? Obviously there’s Overbay. Who might the Jays want for him? And Dave mentioned Willie Aybar. That would be just beautiful, but who would the Rays want in return?
Graham sez:
You don’t have to have been a horse to be a jockey.
That is fabulous. I intend to steal that early and often.
At the same time, I have a minuscule amount of sympathy for the wagster, because baseball, like quantum mechanics, sometimes defies the truths we’ve been taught to believe (Grit is the most important thing a player can bring, the big bat is more important than getting on base, time and space are both invariant, and so on). I don’t know how we’ll make runs happen, but if a bunch of guys in a row continue to get on base a lot, runs will happen as a consequence. It’s not, well, quantum mechanics, but, come on. A hundred years of numbers don’t lie.
Just in the interests of proper attribution, that quote is stolen from former Italian soccer coach Arrigo Sacchi.
wOBA UZR OBP
2008 Jose Lopez .328 -5.8 .322
2009 Jose Lopez .325 1.2 .303
2008 O. Hudson .358 -5.1 .367
2009 O. Hudson .342 -3.3 .357
2008 F. Lopez .320 -5.3 .343
2009 F. Lopez .356 7.8 .383
BABIP WAR
2008 Jose Lopez .311 2.0
2009 Jose Lopez .274 2.6
2008 O. Hudson .344 2.0
2009 O. Hudson .332 2.9
2008 F. Lopez .331 .8
2009 F. Lopez .360 4.6
Can someone give me a quick break down on BABIP as it relates to hitters? It seems to me that if Jose Lopez can bring his up in line with league average (around .290 vs his .274 last season) this coming season he pencils out for 2.5 to 3 WAR or basically at or above level of Hudson or F. Lopez. So this move would potentially net the Ms .5 to 1.5 WAR depending on Liriano but cost them 5 to 7 mil for a comparable 2b and $$$ to Minnesota. Overall, seems a more cost effective move than 7 to 10 mil for Sheets, as well as providing 2011 and 2012 with Liriano instead of just one year of Sheets. So from the M’s perspective makes sense. IDK enough about the Twins organization to offer an opinion there, but it seems to me like Lopez + Cash @ 2.5 WAR for Liriano at 1 to 1.5 WAR would make sense for them.
[low quality]
@amnizu
If you consider Hudson’s AL as opposed to NL performance, he looks considerably worse on offense. With Toronto, his wOBA was:
2002: .326
2003: .316
2004: .339
2005: .317
So other than 2004, his performance was comparable (or worse) than Jose Lopez. Add that to his unfavorable UZR comparison and one can argue that paying Orlando Hudson a substantial salary to play in the AL in 2010 represents a risk. If he regresses toward his previous AL numbers and his fielding is similar to 2009 (or worse), then he might not even deliver 2 WAR.