Game 79, Rangers at Mariners

July 2, 2005 · Filed Under Game Threads · 47 Comments 

Wow, we blew that. A 1:05 start and I was on the bike.

Adrian Beltre has two home runs as I type this, and now I’m torn — even with the Seattle to Portland looming, I’d have loved to have seen that instead of wandering around in ill weather.

Game 78, Rangers at Mariners

July 1, 2005 · Filed Under Game Threads · 100 Comments 

RHP Chan Ho Park vs. RHP Aaron Sele, 7:05pm (KOMO and FSN)

How misleading can won-loss record be for pitchers? Park is 7-2 despite a 5.75 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and .302 batting average against. Just think if Ryan Franklin had this kind of run support!

Sele fell back to Earth last time out against the Padres (4 IP, 8 ER) after a good run of starts going back to the end of May; he still currently sports the best ERA among regular M’s starters.

Usual starting lineup with Borders behind the plate. And with that we throw it open to you, the reader.

Game 77, Mariners at Athletics

June 30, 2005 · Filed Under Game Threads · 88 Comments 

RHP Meche v RHP Haren. 12:35, radio only.

Rare day game, as the Mariners look to get this series over with so they can get on their flight back home.

Game 75, Mariners at Athletics

June 28, 2005 · Filed Under Game Threads · 80 Comments 

LHP Moyer v LHP Zito. 7:05, FSN.

A couple years ago, this would have been a great pitching matchup.

Game 73, Mariners at Padres

June 25, 2005 · Filed Under Game Threads · 151 Comments 

Wow, 1:10… didn’t see that coming. Televised on (metallic whiiiirrrr— pow!) Fox!

RHP Sele v RHP Peavy.

A couple of points from last night’s game — that Sexson double-play ball, Beltre totally dogged it on his way to second, only starting to hustle when the ball was dropped, running way out to the outfield side of the baseline, not sliding at all. Is he trying to save his hamstrings?

Then, it didn’t matter if he took the guy out or not, though it’d have been nice if he’d run hard and been safe, because Sexson was out by half a mile, a ridiculous distance. He didn’t run at all. And at that point in the game, they weren’t up a thousand to four.

Using cool-o-matic statistical probability only:
Chances that Morse is a .300 hitter but hit .260 in his many minor league at-bats: 20 deviations from the mean, ~0.005%
Chances that Morse is a .400 hitter but hit .260 in his many minor league at-bats: zippo
Chances that Morse is a .260 hitter having a crazy hot streak: ~0.4%

While it’s unlikely that this is a crazy hot streak, it’s about eighty times more likely that’s the case.

A more likely scenario (Morse, being fairly old, is a little better than his minor league career numbers) gets the “hot streak” probability up to like 1, 2% depending on what you set the stats at.

Boy, I wish I’d saved this for a PI article now. Hey, wait — nobody mention this to anyone, and I’ll write it up anyway next week.

Game 72, Mariners at Padres

June 24, 2005 · Filed Under Game Threads · 143 Comments 

RHP Meche v LHP Darrell May.

What a pitching duel this is going to be. I’m going to make a prediction: scoring four runs will not win this game.

Game 70, Athletics at Mariners

June 22, 2005 · Filed Under Game Threads · 307 Comments 

LHP Zito v LHP Moyer. Both regarded as premier left-handed starters only a couple seasons back. Now they face off to see if the A’s might be able to crawl out of the cellar on the back of the M’s.

Game 69, Athletics at Mariners

June 21, 2005 · Filed Under Game Threads · 107 Comments 

RHP Rich Harden (2-3, 2.80) vs. RHP Joel Pineiro (2-3, 5.69)
7:05pm, FSN and KOMO

See how won-loss record can be misleading for pitchers? Oh, and Harden’s making his first start since May 13 after missing a month with a strained stomach muscle. Meanwhile, Pineiro’s allowed just three earned runs over his past two starts (13 innings) and induced 10 and 13 outs via ground balls in those two outings. Hence the importance of keeping the ball down.

Game 65, Mets at Mariners

June 17, 2005 · Filed Under Game Threads · 64 Comments 

You know the drill; sorry we’re late.

Game 64, Phillies at Mariners

June 16, 2005 · Filed Under Game Threads · 200 Comments 

Brett Myers (2.24 ERA in 88 IP) and Joel Pineiro (6.20 ERA in 61 IP).

Myers 32.7 VORP is 6th among all major league starters, better than Johan Santana or Jake Peavy.

I won’t mention the “S” word, but bigger miracles have happened.

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