Clearly, something has changed since June. I don’t believe that the team was lying and intended to do this all along. Since getting him signed, they have either seen something in Ackley, or made a decision about the rest of the roster, that made this a more attractive option than it was this summer. The options of things that may have changed:

1. They weren’t impressed with Ackley’s outfield abilities in the AFL. I find this pretty unlikely. The reports I’ve heard on him from down there have been pretty positive, and you never expect a perfect transition to a position that a player doesn’t have much experience at. Toss in the fact that its a small sample from a bunch of games that don’t really mean anything, and I just can’t see the M’s deciding that he couldn’t hack it in the outfield yet.

2. They were so impressed with Ackley’s bat in the AFL that they’ve moved up their timetable for getting him to the majors. This is slightly more plausible than the above option, but still seems like a stretch. His AFL performance is exactly what everyone expected – a bunch of singles, some walks, and some doubles sprinkled in here and there. The M’s had scouted him extensively in college, so it’s hard to imagine that they saw something in his bat that they didn’t see during the spring, and the performance just wasn’t eye-opening. He was as advertised. That’s not impetus for a change.

3. They’re preparing to acquire a long term answer in left field – i.e. Curtis Granderson. This will get spun into that rumor, but I don’t buy it. I can’t see the M’s paying the price it will take to get Granderson when they already had Saunders, who potentially gives you a similar type of player when he develops.

4. They have decided that Michael Saunders has more of a future on this team than Jose Lopez does. This strikes me as the likely scenario. Lopez has long been rumored to be trade bait this winter, even though there aren’t many in-house options to replace him long term. If they trade Lopez, there’s no one keeping Ackley from a major league job when he’s ready. Saunders is younger, cheaper, under team control for significantly longer, left-handed, better defensively, more athletic… there are a ton of reasons why the M’s would rather have Ackley displace Lopez than Saunders. It’s not that hard to imagine that during one of the post-season meetings between the front office and the coaching staff, everyone decided that Saunders was a keeper and Lopez was a goner. That kind of decision would make an Ackley-to-2B shift more viable.

We’ll find out eventually, as the team puts the roster together. But if I was Jose Lopez, I’d be looking at how much it costs to break my lease.

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Dustin Ackley, Second Baseman?

Update: According to Geoff Baker, they’ve added to the 40-man everyone Jay covered earlier except for Peguero and Scott, plus J.C. Ramirez who I guess does need to go on after all. Also, Varvaro is going to start in the AFL title game.

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Waiver claims

The pair people have struggled with the most in the past, probably because they have a superficial similarity but the pattern is reversed (and then you have to remember which is which), are Piniella and Pineiro. Nowadays, we have another pair a bit like that who have been coming up through the system, Tuiasosopo and Triunfel. People seem to get Matt right, partly because shortening to “Tui” is an easy save, but Carlos gets butchered constantly.

It’s hard to know what the future holds for Triunfel. What position will he ultimately play? Will he recover from his injury well enough to compensate for the lost development time? How much power will he develop? Is he a future star, or a future Jose Lopez? Is all this going to happen for the Mariners, or will he become a trade chip? Whatever the outcome, though, it’s at least time to start getting his name right.

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I before U, except after T

However, none of the four project to be good enough in 2010 that they should have job security heading into next season. They should have the opportunity to make the team, but the M’s can’t go into the season depending on these guys stepping up. It has to be a pleasant surprise, not an expected outcome. So, at each of their respective positions, the M’s need to provide a realistic alternative, but they need to do so without slamming the door shut on the kids.

At those positions, they need options, not necessarily solutions. That’s easier said than done, honestly. You generally don’t expend significant resources to acquire a player and then put his job up for grabs in spring training. You’re not going to sign Nick Johnson, then make him beat out Mike Carp for the first base job. That’s just not going to happen.

There is a path that can make this work, however – targeting players with positional flexibility. This is one of the ideas behind the acquisitions of guys like Jack Hannahan and Bill Hall. If Tui flops, those two could platoon at third base. If they trade Lopez, maybe those two share second base. Or maybe they keep Lopez and Tui wins the third base job, so Hall ends up as Saunders platoon partner and Hannahan fills the role of infield super-sub. Those guys give the M’s options.

What they don’t give the M’s is enough offense. They’re nice enough role players, but they’re backup plans if the first option doesn’t work out. The M’s need a guy with some positional flexibility who they actually want in the line-up and is good enough to hold down a fairly regular job. They need a guy who could slide in at two or three of the LF/3B/1B/C/DH jobs, depending on where the team needs him. It would also be great if he was a switch-hitter, giving the line-up some balance regardless of which position he ends up playing. Oh, and if he was already under contract for the next two years at reasonable salaries, that would help. If he happened to grow up in Moses Lake as a big Mariner fan, that would just be icing on the cake.

Believe it or not, that guy exists. His name is Ryan Doumit. He’s spent the last couple of years alternating between catcher and the disabled list for the Pirates, though they’ve also used him at first base and in the outfield, because his strengths behind the plate begin and end with “he can hit”. The rest of the resume is all pulled straight from Doumit’s file. He’s a switch hitter without much of a platoon split. He has some pop in his bat, and for his career, has been an above average major league hitter. He’ll be 29 next year, and is signed for $3.5 million in 2010 and $5.1 million in 2011, with a team option for 2012 and 2013 following that year. And yes, he’s a local kid. He’s even Willie Bloomquist’s cousin, so you know there’s grit and hustle in the genes somewhere.

He comes with downside, of course, or he wouldn’t be available. He posted a .299 OBP in 2009 when he was on the field, which wasn’t often. A good chunk of that was a low BABIP (.271 versus a .307 career mark), but he’s not a particularly patient hitter, so his on base percentage will always be driven by his batting average. He’s got enough power to make the approach work, but if you’re tired of guys hacking at pitches out of the strike zone, you may not love Doumit. He’s also been hurt a lot in his career, never compiling more than 465 at-bats in a season, and had wrist surgery last year, which is known for sapping power. And, as mentioned, he’s not much of a receiver behind the plate, nor would likely be particularly great at either first or in left.

He’s a hitter first and foremost, with the bonus ability to not totally embarrass himself at three positions. And that gives the M’s options.

If Rob Johnson’s recovery from multiple surgeries don’t go well or Moore flops in spring training, Doumit can fill in at catcher. If whatever 1B/DH they bring in has say, a herniated disc in his back that requires a rest, he can play there. If Saunders can’t hack it in left just yet, you can stick him in the outfield until Ackley’s ready. And, if the M’s hit the lotto and all the young guys play well, then you have the best 10th man in baseball.

Doumit would give the M’s flexibility and productivity. That he’s not particularly expensive and is coming off a poor season makes him exactly the kind of player Zduriencik has shown to be interested in. While the names of higher profile players float around, keep Doumit’s name in the back of your mind, and don’t be too shocked if the M’s end up making a play for him.

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A Name To Tuck Away

But even long at-bats aren’t necessarily good at-bats. Both Jose Lopez and Adrian Beltre had at-bats when they fouled off several pitches.

“There would be an 11-pitch at-bat and a lot of guys would say, ‘Hey, great at-bat. Way to battle,’” Wakamatsu said. “But we’d go back and look at it on video and not one of the pitches they swung at was a strike.”

YES! YES! A THOUSAND TIMES YES!

You’ve heard me rant about this before. It is not a good at-bat when you foul off 10 pitches that were out of the strike zone. That is a stupid at-bat that demonstrates a profound lack of understanding of the value of a walk. Jose Lopez probably had four or five of these at-bats last year. Every single time, the announcers would praise him for hanging in there, battling, refusing to give in, blah blah blah. And every single time, he could have been standing on first base, but instead, he insisted on swinging at crap that wasn’t even close.

A good at-bat does not teach the opposing pitcher that he never has to throw you a strike. If its ten inches outside, don’t swing*. I don’t care if you think you can hit it. I don’t care if you can hit it. Don’t swing at pitches over your head. Don’t swing at pitches that bounce in the dirt. Don’t swing at a 3-0 change-up on the inside corner at the knees.

That Wak gets this is awesome. I love our manager.

* Ichiro has earned the right to do whatever he wants. He’s the exception.

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Have A Hot Dog With Me, Don Wakamatsu

RHP Dan Cortes, 3/4/1987
2009 (AA): 10 GS, 1-5, 4.94 ERA in 54.2 IP, 51 H (4 HR), 33 R (30 ER), 55/35 K/BB
Pros: Solid velocity on fastball (91-93, touching higher) complemented by plus curve, improved after trade
Cons: Change-up is not good, command is awful
Summary: Cortes has the best ceiling of the high minors pitching prospects, but his not-good walk rate has gotten a lot worse as he’s moved up. He’s still in boom or bust territory, and the prospect of him becoming a reliever is real.

RHP Ricky Orta, 11/6/1984
2009 (AA): 24 G (3 GS), 3-2, 1.94 ERA in 41.2 IP, 29 H (HR), 14 R (9 ER), 41/18 K/BB
Pros: Live fastball (93-94), workable secondary offerings, dominant for the past year
Cons: Attempts to get him to start have resulted in disaster, struggles with left-handers
Summary: Orta was the also ran in a pitching-loaded ’06 draft for years, but trades and progress on his own part push him to near the top of the list now. He could develop into something similar to what Mark Lowe is now.

LHP Edward Paredes, 9/30/1986
2009 Stats (A+): 42 G (3 GS), 8-4, 4.69 ERA in 71.0 IP, 74 H (6 HR), 45 R (37 ER), 64/22 K/BB
Pros: Kills LHB (.231 avg, 2.31 BB/9, 12.73 K/9), has stuff that would allow him to keep doing that (avg. to plus FB, killer slider)
Cons: Can’t start either, about half as good versus right-handers due to lack of change-up
Summary: Paredes is as pure a left-on-left reliever as the organization really has at this point. Player development likes him too. Even lacking experience, he might get on because no one else can do what he does.

OF Carlos Peguero, L/L, 2/22/1987
2009 (A+): 126 G, 491 AB, 92 R, 133 H, 21 2B, 14 3B, 31 HR, 3 SB, 4 CS, 172/42 K/BB, .271/.335/.560
Pros: Future RF with power LH bat, walks more than Halman
Cons: Has only played more than 100 games, and hit more than 12 HR, once, strikes out as much as Halman, California League
Summary: Juan Silverstre, mk. II? Silvestre had a better eye at the plate, which is laughable, but Peggy is potentially more competent on the field, and actually had better power numbers. Whether he is remotely valuable after three option years is another matter.

C Travis Scott, L/R, 4/24/1985
2009 (A+): 102 G, 351 AB, 48 R, 100 H, 28 2B, 5 3B, 15 HR, 71 RBI, 2 SB, CS, 78/41 K/BB, .285/.356/.521
Pros: Best LHH backstop in the org (de-fault!), no real platoon issues
Cons: Actually hits LHPs better which some would use to question bat speed, offensive backstop who spent three years in the Cal League because of his offense, not great at catching runners stealing
Summary: The organization has a number of youngish catchers available. Scott is around in case anything happens, but there’s not much reason to expect a great deal from him as he moves up.

RHP Anthony Varvaro, 10/31/1984
2009 (AA): 36 G, 4-3, 2.82 ERA in 54.1 IP, 30 H (HR), 23 R (17 ER), 63/44 K/BB
Pros: Decent velocity, hammer curve, probable first-round pick coming out of college
Cons: Tommy John in past (why he slipped to the 12th), has only recently stopped walking the entire world, and by recently I mean just in the Arizona Fall League
Summary: It’s a test to see whether one believes AFL stats to be legitimate or not. If his current rate of about one every six innings holds, he has a future. If not, I’ve just wasted 103 words.

There are other assorted names of that are of interest only to me in there, examples being less experienced international players like Avila, Juan Fuentes, Richard Ortiz, and Halman’s more flawed countryman Kalian Sams, as wells as organization mainstays like Jeff Dominguez, Johan Limonta, and Andy Baldwin, but none of them are all that worth talking about. The seven above seem to be the most likely to go on. The M’s currently have thirty-four spots or so available, taking off Batista, Bedard, Beltre, Branyan, Chavez, Sweeney. They could make additional moves to pull guys off around the deadline, but I don’t know that they will. Off-hand, I’d say the top five probably go on with additional moves accommodating free agents, but some maneuvering could get Scott on too. I remain skeptical about Varvaro.

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‘09 40-man Preview Extravaganza

Bannister, a right-handed starter, is known for his appreciation of modern pitching metrics, which emphasize the factors for which pitchers are essentially responsible: walks, strikeouts, home runs and hit batters. In Greinke, he found a like mind.

“He’s extremely bright, and he’s really picked up on using all the information out there to make his game better,” Bannister said by telephone. “He’s always had the talent. His confidence level, which is extremely high, combined with his knowledge of the numbers behind the game now, definitely makes him one of the best pitchers in the world.”

Bannister said Greinke has learned to adjust his pitching based on the advanced defensive statistics. Because of the size of the outfield at Kauffman Stadium and the strength of the Royals’ outfielders, relative to their infielders, it sometimes made more sense to induce fly balls.

“David DeJesus had our best zone rating,” Bannister said, referring to the Royals’ left fielder. “So a lot of times, Zack would pitch for a fly ball at our park instead of a ground ball, just because the zone rating was better in our outfield and it was a big park.”

To that end, Bannister introduced Greinke to FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, the statistic Greinke named Tuesday as his favorite. It is a formula that measures how well a pitcher performed, regardless of his fielders. According to fangraphs.com, Greinke had the best FIP in the majors.

“That’s pretty much how I pitch, to try to keep my FIP as low as possible,” Greinke said.

The reigning AL Cy Young winner, quoting FIP in the interview after he won the award. Welcome to the 21st century of baseball. This isn’t some kind of weird math for the lunatic fringe anymore.

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Zack Greinke Is Awesome

As Derek humorously pointed out this morning, you’re going to read a lot of rumors over the next few weeks, linking the M’s to various players. There’s no reason to take any of these too seriously. The Mariners have a lot of open roster spots and a decent amount of money to spend, so they’re in a position where due diligence requires them to call just about everyone. They’re in information gathering mode. It would be negligent for them not to talk to the agent for John Lackey, but that conversation doesn’t mean that you should begin to expect the M’s to sign him.

Once free agency starts on Friday, we’ll get better information beyond speculation about what teams may do. Until then, pretty much everything written is fluff.

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This And That

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M’s rumored to be interested in signing, trading for, players

10 abusive people a day doesn’t seem so bad. But consider we have six people who go through comments as they can, including the three volunteer mods, and through Thursday I could log in at any time during the day and see in the comment queue a sea of yellow to-be-moderated abuse. When someone decides they want to sign up for USSM and be a jerk, there’s no way to expect someone’s going to be by to police a thread for an hour or even really four hours, much as we might try. That’s a long time, and new-user moderation this week was the only thing between us and insanity.

But we’re the only people who see this, I wanted to offer it up as some kind of explanation. If we seemed (and I certainly was) exasperated and curt with some of the more pointed pro-Griffey and anti-Griffey commentary, sorry. It’s because whenever these things happen, we end up coping with a wave of abuse that we all as unpaid volunteers have a hard time dealing with.

And again — we don’t have any problem with discussing this stuff. But no one gets to call Griffey signing-supporters brainless ass-kissers (to pick one) and no one gets to call Griffey signing-detractors heartless robots who’ve never played team sports.

Thanks to everyone who conducted themselves well through this. We really do appreciate it.

* presumably practicing to call people gay over Xbox Live while playing Modern Warfare 2

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Weekend meta: new user registrations