Game 100, Athletics at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Cole Irwin, 1:10pm
Wow. The M’s won late yet again last night, with a wild pitch again plating the winning run. The M’s bullpen has been the club’s clearest strength, ranking 2nd in fWAR in MLB behind the Rays (who, predictably, have a huge edge in innings pitched). Paul Sewald aside, they’re really not a traditional bullpen, racking up tons and tons of strikeouts. The M’s are actually below average in bullpen K rate despite getting a bit over 1 per inning (that’s a modern baseball stat if ever there was one). Instead, they trade walks for hard contact. Their walk rate is…okay, but they don’t give up many HRs. Obviously, that’s an extremely volatile stat, and could regress, but you see the approach at work. Kendall Graveman is a sinkerballer, so can attack hitters without needing punchouts AND without worrying as much about HRs. He doesn’t need to throw elevated fastballs to chase strikeouts when 97 mph sinkers will swerve and bend and get weak contact if batters can hit them. Paul Sewald *does* throw elevated 93 mph four-seam fastballs, and gets very few ground balls. But, and I cannot stress this enough: he is Paul Sewald, so he gets to do what he wants. A K/9 of nearly 16 and a low HR rate driven, at least in part, by accepting walks as the byproduct of his approach has made him one of the top 20 most valuable relievers in baseball this year, and he’d be higher if he didn’t start the year in Tacoma.
The A’s, on the other hand, have the bullpen that generates the fewest strikeouts in the game. They knew they would have a less outright dominant pen this year when they let Liam Hendriks walk, but I assume they guessed they’d get more out of trade pick-up Adam Kolarek or Jesus Luzardo, once the latter washed out of the rotation.
This bullpen strength is why the M’s have been so much fun to watch: if they can scrape a couple of runs off of a starter, they’re *in* virtually every game. They may not win them all, but it always seems like they have a chance, even if the opposing starter lands a haymaker the way Sean Manaea did in game 1. It’s nice that this effectiveness isn’t concentrated in one dominant closer, too. The M’s depth helps them avoid workload concerns, though I think it remains to be seen how pitchers fare come August/September. But that’s a league-wide issue, not an M’s-specific one, and if anything, the M’s might be better off there than most. But all of that depends on getting enough innings from their starters, and with Logan Gilbert getting knocked out early, they really need some innings from Marco Gonzales today.
The opposing starter in this final game of the series is Cole Irwin, a former Phillies cast-off who’s been a vital cog in the A’s rotation. The lefty out of the University of Oregon mixes 4 pitches (really 5 if you include a rare curve): a four-seam fastball that’s his primary pitch, a sinker, a slider, and a change-up. He’s only 90-91 with the hard stuff, but he throws a very firm change-up at 84-85. It doesn’t have dramatically different movement from his fastball, especially the sinker, so if you guessed that it’s not really a swing-and-miss pitch, you’re right. Like many change-ups, it generates a *ton* of swings, and because it’s not really going to get whiffs, it’s put in play a lot. That’s the idea, and it’s worked. He’s had almost as many batted balls off of the pitch as he’s generated with his four-seam, despite throwing that four-seam nearly twice as often.
League wide, the wOBA-on-contact (wOBACON) overall is .370 this year, down from .378 in the bouncy-ball 2019 season. On four-seam fastballs, it’s .399 this year, down from .409 in 2019. But for change-ups, it’s only .341 (which is actually higher than it was in 2019). That’s the idea here. As it happens, Irvin has produced lower average/wOBA off of his four-seamer this year, but that can be volatile. In general, getting batters to put *anything other than fastballs* in play is a good way to go. If you can just strike everybody out, yeah, go ahead and do that. But if that’s not really possible, a good contingency plan is to induce swings on something else, and change-ups are effective because they generate so many more swings than breaking balls do.
It’s an open question for a guy like Irwin, as it is for Yusei Kikuchi, whether it’s better to throw a change like this that gets so much contact. Kikuchi keeps tweaking his, I think, looking for the best balance of command but also bat-missing power. I think Irwin’s making a different calculation, and it may be the right call for him, but I do wonder what that pitch would look like if he could cut 2 mph off of its velocity.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: France, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Torrens, DH
6: Murphy, C
7: Kelenic, RF
8: Moore, 2B
9: Bauers, LF
SP: Gonzales
This is the M’s big lefty-killer line-up, but Irvin’s run reverse splits this year. I don’t think he’s a true-talent righty-killer, but it’s a game where I don’t think I’d work hard to find a spot for Jake Bauers. Torrens at DH, though, that’s good stuff.
JP Crawford is back to being mired in a slump after he ended the first half on an absolute tear. I mentioned it on Twitter last night, but I think he’s the spiritual successor to Raul Ibanez. No, his game is nothing like Ibanez’s, the big power/average but no defense stalwart. Crawford’s slick-up-the-middle-defense-plus-walks game is the exact inverse of Raul’s, but both are among the streakiest players I’ve ever seen. A decade or more ago, M’s fans kept freaking out that the end of Raul’s career was nigh because he’d go into a month-or-two long slump and look like a shell of himself. Just when we’d talk ourselves into to trying whatever corner OF was hitting best in Tacoma, he’d have a month where he was the best hitter in baseball. He did the same in Kansas City. Well, JP Crawford reminds me of that. April/May this year he looked lost and absolutely bereft of power. His slugging percentage was under .300 in April, remember. In June, he slugged .530 and had a 158 wRC+. In July, it’s down to 36, far lower than April. He’s nowhere near as bad as he’s looked in the past few weeks, but he’s not the guy he looks like when he’s on fire. DomeandBedlam had a poll that asks: has he taken a step forward this year, a step back, or just the same? I voted that he’s taken a slight step forward, though WAR stats may show a bit of a decline. That’s largely related to defense and baserunning, and those are so noisy in small samples. Yes, his offensive stats are freakishly noisy, too, but I will just say that I would’ve bet money that he couldn’t hit 5 HRs in a season, and he’s done so. Getting a tiny bit of gap power transforms him from a poor man’s Omar Vizquel to a decently valuable piece. He’s not a star, and he’s going to be frustratingly streaky, but hopefully it all adds up to a slight plus overall.
Game 99, Athletics at Mariners
Logan Gilbert vs. Chris Bassitt, 7:10pm
The M’s got a great team win last night, taking the lead on a hustle single, stolen base, and two wild pitches. But the night really belonged to Yusei Kikuchi who stopped his mini-slump with a career high in strikeouts. But he’s had great games before – was there anything noteworthy about this one? Yes.
Since he came over to MLB, Kikuchi’s been a fastball/slider guy, and then developed a third pitch – his cutter – that’s literally half-way in between the other two. He’s had a curve, but he hasn’t thrown it much at all recently. What does he throw to righties? In the past, the answer’s been the cutter, but he’s needed something else to get them off of his fastball, which, for all of its velocity, has had a worrying tendency to get drilled if batters guess it’s coming.
For years, he’s had a change, but he’s used it very, very sparingly, and essentially never to left-handed batters. Earlier this year, ex-M’s pitcher and current team coach (and Kevin Mather annoyer, somehow) Hisashi Iwakuma taught Kikuchi his split-change grip. The results have been…subtle. It doesn’t move a whole lot differently from his old change, and neither version got a ton of horizontal movement anyway. It wasn’t a 12-6 style splitter the way ‘Kuma’s was, and it wasn’t an arm-side running swerveball the way, say, Pablo Lopez’s is. It’s been in the middle.
Last night, something seemed to change: he threw a staggering 29 of them, and got 9 of his 12 strikeouts on the pitch. He threw it to lefties and righties alike, and it helped him rack up swinging strikes and grounders. He’d never thrown 20 of them in a game before; his high was 18 set back in his rookie year. Moreover, the spin rate was down by 400 RPM, leading to very little horizontal run. I think he’s changed something, either setting the ball deeper in his fingers, or adapting the grip a bit. It wasn’t a perfect pitch; Matt Olson deposited one deep in the seats. But the fact that he threw one to Matt Olson at all would be noteworthy, and that he did so in a game in which the pitch looked different and helped him set a strikeout mark…this is worth keeping an eye on.
You know who’s fastball looks a bit like Kikuchi’s, albeit from the right side? Logan Gilbert’s. You know who’s used his change sparingly thus far? Yeah, Gilbert. Gilbert hasn’t really needed something else, as his fastball’s been quite effective in combination with that slider. But he’s had recent games where he’s throws zero curve balls. If he can get some confidence in his change, it could really help him develop.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Raleigh, C
6: Torrens, DH
7: Kelenic, CF
8: Moore, 2B
9: Bauers, LF
SP: Gilbert
Congrats to Cal Raleigh on his first big league HR, a 444’ shot to right. He’s looked much more comfortable at the plate recently. Hopefully some of that can rub off on Jarred Kelenic, who hit a few balls hard recently, but is still mired in a brutal slump.
Tacoma blanked Sacramento 4-0 behind David Huff’s great start and 9 hits from the bats. Dillon Thomas had an inside-the-park dinger called back for failing to touch a base or some BS. They’ll play tonight at Cheney; game time’s 7:05 if you’re local….
Arkansas walked off Wichita last night, 4-3. Austin Shenton had two hits and is solidifying as one of the better bats on a promotion-weakened Travs line-up. Devin Sweet starts tonight’s game.
Everett beat Vancouver 8-3, getting all 8 runs in the first two innings. Jake Anchia hit his 5th home run. Tim Elliot got the win, going 6 1/3 IP, giving up 2 runs on 2 hits (but 4 walks).
Fresno beat Modesto 6-3, and Noelvi Marte went 0-4, so enough about that.
Game 97, Athletics at Mariners
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Frankie Montas, 7:10pm
Frankie Montas just tipped over 100 IP in 2021. It’s his first time hitting the century mark, and it’s come in his sixth season. Sure, for a year or two, he was a reliever, and relievers just Don’t Do That Anymore, which is perhaps a discussions for a different day. But he’s been a starter now for a handful of years, and never managed it. Why not? I think Montas has essentially dabbled with each reason a pitcher can have for not pitching a lot. First, and what most might consider easiest, was that he’s gotten hurt. He had a rib resection and a broken rib, he had a finger issue, and, this year, caught Covid-19. Second, and what is *actually* the easiest reason not to log a lot of injuries, he’s been pretty mediocre at times. He had a decent ERA in his first A’s season, but he didn’t miss any bats. The year before that, his last time as a reliever, he racked up strikeouts, but nearly matched them with walks. Finally, in 2019, in the midst of a breakout season, he was suspended after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug.
The seemingly-random wheel of Frankie Montas results spun again last year, as he struggled mightily with HRs, pushing his RA/9 towards 6 despite plenty of strikeouts. This year, he’s improved, though he’s still not flashing the kind of results he showed in 2019. Montas, when he’s on, looks every bit the ace: he throws a four-seamer and sinker at 96-97, and mixes in a splitter to lefties and a slider to righties, both of which can be effective bat-missing weapons. As a long-term member of the splitter fan club, it’s no surprise I think it’s his best pitch, and it’s done exceedingly well for him this year. But it hasn’t always been so; it’s a volatile pitch, I guess? Let’s hope tonight’s an off night for him, as the M’s have struggled quite a bit with change-ups/splitters this year.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 2B
5: Raleigh, C
6: Torrens, 1B
7: Kelenic, CF
8: Bauers, RF
9: Long, 2B
SP: Kikuchi
The M’s big free agent move of the off-season, acquiring Rafael Montero to close, didn’t go as planned. After a poor outing last night, he’s now sporting an ERA over 6. That experiment’s now over, as the M’s DFA’d Montero.
Looks like we’ll be seeing more of Luis Torrens at 1B, and it makes some sense as the team absolutely needs his bat in the line-up and also wants to get a look at Cal Raleigh. Torrens has absolutely been one of the stories of 2021. He was sent down looking completely lost at the plate, and returned as a younger Gary Sanchez.
Game 97, Athletics at Mariners – A Critical Homestand
Chris Flexen vs. Sean Manaea, 7:10pm
The M’s wildcard odds took a hit with yesterday’s loss; they’re now just below 3%. That sounds bad, but look at the standings, and the M’s are only behind Oakland for the second wild card. The M’s odds are so low because projection systems keep waiting for the Angels to wake up and play well, and frankly, I’ve just seen the Angels, and that – predicting the Angels will suddenly have pitching – is not something I’d put money on. This doesn’t mean that the M’s have it made. The A’s are better and ahead of them. But it means games leading up to the deadline *against the team they’re chasing* take on additional importance. Games like, oh, tonight’s.
The Mariners need pitching and they need upgrades to a couple of positions that are holding them back. Jerry Dipoto remains focused on the longer term needs of the team, and doesn’t want to spend prospect capital on a rental – meaning, they don’t want a player who’ll become a free agent at the end of the season. That’s fine, but given the number of teams that are completely out of it, supply of players under contract for at least 2022 won’t be all that hard to find. Typically, what we need is for someone to go first and sort of set the market.
Someone just did. The Rays, the team currently sitting in the *first* wild card position just acquired Nelson Cruz from Minnesota. That’s a really good fit, and it strengthens their chances not only of making it into a playoff game, but pushing Boston for the AL East title. It also amps up the pressure on teams like Seattle to do something – anything – to try and keep up.
Thus, the M’s are in kind of a chicken/egg situation in this homestand. If they play poorly, they may throw in the towel on acquiring another starter, say. If they close the gap, the pressure to make a deal grows. But, of course, making a deal sooner would actually help them close the gap. Whatever the M’s decide to do, this series is a big one, as Jake Mailhot lays out in this preview at LL.
We can’t talk about weird playoff chases despite poor underlying metrics without mentioning that the M’s were in a very similar position back in 2006, when they leveraged a good farm system to upgrade their anemic line-up. It…it did not go well. They did something similar after 2007, and that may have actually gone worse somehow. But this year’s team has advantages those earlier ones don’t. For one, the farm system is actually deeper than it was in the Choo/Jones/Cabrera years. I don’t mean “this crop is guaranteed to put up better MLB numbers,” as that is both a high bar and completely unknowable. But I mean that the M’s have highly regarded prospects within the industry, and they have desirable prospects beyond the big ones like Kelenic/Rodriguez that everyone’s been talking about for years. The Athletic/Keith Law’s midseason top 50 list just came out, and includes Noelvi Marte, for example.
Sean Manaea’s having one of his better seasons this year at the age of 29. He’s had ups and downs in terms of his raw stuff and his results, but he’s been remarkably similar in terms of approach. He throws a four-seamer around 60% of the time, and uses his change to righties and slider to lefties. He’s had low-K seasons like 2018 and 2020, but his K rate is up noticeably this year. One of the drivers is that he’s around the plate, and is generating more swings off of his fastball.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: France, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Torrens, DH
6: Murphy, C
7: Kelenic, CF
8: Moore, 2B
9: Long, LF
SP: Flexen
Game 95, Mariners at Rockies – Improving the Offense
Marco Gonzales vs. German Marquez, 5:40pm
The M’s strong run has them 6 games above .500, blowing their pre-season projections out of the water. Sure, their playoff odds have moved from “negligible” to “still below 5%” but they’re driven by those same projections. The problem here is that either by BaseRuns or pythagorean runs, the M’s really aren’t that great: their record using both systems (essentially stripping out sequencing and “clutch” stats) comes out at 42-52, a far cry from their actual 50-44 record. The bullpen’s been great, and they’ve been the clutchiest team in the game, but what accounts for this massive disparity?
The thing every projection, every system using run differential (which is all pythagorean runs are) is keying on is this: the M’s can’t hit very well. Before the year, they were projected to score very few runs, a product not only of an underwhelming/developing line-up, but also a park that supresses run scoring. They had a fair-to-middling projected number of runs allowed, but the problem was that they couldn’t take advantage of being average in one area if they were pretty bad in another. But that’s just what was *projected.* What’s ACTUALLY happened?
The projections….nailed it. The M’s are giving up 4.67 runs per game, which is a more than average, but it’s not a massive problem. What perhaps no one but the M’s pitching coaches and Jerry Dipoto saw coming was an elite bullpen that survived a faceplant from Rule 5 pick Will Vest and vaunted closer Rafael Montero to become the key element allowing the M’s to win close games and make a mockery of their run differential. That they’ve done all of this despite a swath of injuries torpedoing their opening day rotation is nothing less than amazing. How about the runs scored part? They’re scoring 4.1 runs per game, which is a bit more than you’d assume, just looking at their actual number of hits, walks, and homers. But here, the projections have been more or less right on. They were projected to score right around 4 runs per game, and to give up more than that. That’s exactly what they’ve done.
Even for some of the players, and even for players who are not hitting anything like their projected line, some of the projections are eerily accurate. Jarred Kelenic was projected by ZiPS for a 29.7 K% and a 7.6% BB rate. So far this year, he’s at 30.5% and 7.6%, respectively. Literally everything else about that projection hasn’t come to fruition; his OPS is nowhere near the mid-700s, and I think mid-20s in HRs is probably not in the cards for 2021, but it nailed the K/BB stuff. The same is largely true for Taylor Trammell, though not to the same degree.
The problem here isn’t just that the M’s have a high K rate. That might be expected due to the fact that they’re running out a very young line-up. The problem is what happens when they actually make contact. The M’s BABIP is the lowest in the game in part because they have the highest rate of infield fly balls. These are essentially always outs, so of course your BABIP will suffer if you hit them. The M’s, and the league, are hitting fewer grounders, but getting less out of them in part because the club doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard.
The New York Times has an article today about how the crackdown on sticky stuff has impacted strikeouts (down) and walks (up), leading to an increase in OBP. It will be interesting to see if the M’s can improve their BABIP and OBP given these changes. I don’t think it’s mattered a whole lot for the M’s staff, save perhaps Yusei Kikuchi, whose July swoon began a bit after the crackdown. Guys like Logan Gilbert, Chris Flexen, Kendall Graveman, etc. never had high spin rates, and don’t seem to have changed materially since June.
All of that has made it harder to identify exactly what changed with Gilbert, who was, again, lights out in the M’s last game. His fastball is about as hard as it was when he first came up, and he’s still prone to hard contact. His whiff rate remains so-so, but his command has improved markedly, leading to more strikeouts and fewer baserunners. There’s nothing really in the data that helps define what “rookie jitters” or “nerves” actually *does* to a pitcher. They don’t throw slower, they don’t change their release point, and for Gilbert, it’s not like he started out by walking tons of hitters. When batters put it in play, they still hit it fairly hard, but there are fewer balls in play, and he’s able to get whiffs when *he* wants to, and not in some 3-1 count. His growth has been unbelievable to watch, and he gives the M’s serious hopes for 2022, and more evidence (along with that bullpen) that the M’s player development group can be successful with pitchers. That’s important given the wave of pitchers they may need to call in in 2022 and 2023, especially if Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield remain a bit shaky.
But to really put themselves in contention for division titles in what’s looking like an increasingly open division in the next year or two is serious improvement in their offense. Moving from 4 runs a game to 4.7-5 is really, really hard to do, but starting with one of the younger line-ups around will help. Beyond mere regression in infield fly rate or BABIP, they need to figure out why the likes of Trammell, Kelenic, and potentially Raleigh are struggling in their first go-round in MLB, just as Evan White did. What was different about Kyle Lewis, and how can they turn Kelenic/Trammell around? Answering that will have as much to say about the M’s playoff odds next year as any free agent they may acquire.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Raleigh, C
6: Kelenic, CF
7: Moore, 2B
8: Long, LF
9/SP: Gonzales
Tacoma destroyed Salt Lake last night 12-2 behind HRs from Kennie Taylor, Brian O’Keefe, Justin Hager, Jantzen Witte, and Jose Marmolejos. Logan Verrett was solid and got the win. Mike Curto discusses Taylor here; he was picked up early in the year (along with seemingly half of the team) from the Mets org, then was kind of without a team for a while, and was brought back a few days ago. The life of a minor leaguer; jeesh. Speaking of which, former Rainier and Mariner Ryan Weber was just picked up off of waivers from Milwakuee. He’ll start for Tacoma tonight.
Arkansas begins a series against Wichita at home at Dickey-Stephens park.
Everett travels to Hillsboro to take on the Vancouver Canadian-Oregonians.
Modesto heads to Fresno’s Chukchansi park to play the Grizzlies.
Game 92, Mariners at Angels: The Second Half Begins
Chris Flexen vs. Andrew Heaney, 6:38pm (?)
The second half begins today, and the M’s are on the outskirts of a playoff race. Shannon Drayer lays it all out here, but the M’s are in an odd position vis a vis the trade deadline. Their position in the standings would argue for adding MLB talent this month, whereas the longer term goals and their stated process might argue for trading vets for younger talent, even if that talent wasn’t quite ready to shine this season. The team obviously believes that they’re good, and doesn’t want to hear about run differential. But for any acquisition to make a difference, the M’s young players need to step up. That begins tonight, as Jarred Kelenic rejoins the team.
Cal Raleigh’s up, taking Taylor Trammell’s roster spot. Kyle Lewis may rejoin the team in late August, though Evan White is completely done for the year (he’s having his hip surgically repaired). Kelenic and Trammell’s struggles haven’t doomed the M’s chances, but combined with Evan White’s struggles, the M’s have had some issues transitioning position player prospects to the majors. It’s why their offense ranks 28th in MLB, and still claims the lowest team batting average. If they get someone to play 2B or the OF, they’ll still need to figure this problem out, especially with Cal Raleigh now with the team. None of this means their prospects aren’t going to hit eventually, but if they want to make a run, they need contributions and not growing pains.
Logan Gilbert’s emergence, Yusei Kikuchi’s improvements, and the pick-up of Chris Flexen have given the M’s a rotation that can be a real strength, even despite the wave of injuries that have claimed so many of the pitchers the M’s started the season with. This and the emergence of bullpen aces like Kendall Graveman and Paul Sewald are testaments to the player development group, which makes the issues with young hitters all the tougher to figure out.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: France, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Torrens, DH
6: Raleigh, C
7: Kelenic, CF
8: Moore, 2B
9: Long, LF
SP: Flexen
Edited to note a line-up change, as Shed Long, Jr. replaces Jake Fraley in LF. Always interesting in this part of the season when you see a late line-up change…
The M’s DFA’d Rule 5 reliever Will Vest. It’s too bad, though Vest’s performance certainly made it hard for the M’s to keep him around. In general, he just never quite seemed like the guy we heard about when he was acquired. His vaunted velo gains didn’t seem to come with him to Seattle, and the M’s couldn’t coax bat-missing stuff out of his slider. With strikeouts up, it’s just tough to be a righty reliever with a K rate under 20%. It’s impossible if, in addition to that K%, you’ve got a BB% over 10%.
The M’s draft was high on high school players in the first few rounds, but they filled it out with plenty of college players. After taking preps with their first 3 picks, they grabbed college players in all the remaining rounds, and only one of those, final pick Troy Taylor, was a JuCo pick. Some of that – and especially the seniors – may help them afford higher bonus demands with early picks, but some of that reflects the need to fill out their rosters. The M’s have been ridiculously active on the waiver wire and signing players out of independent leagues. Every org needs to do that from time to time, but I certainly hope the M’s can give more PAs/innings to drafted players in the coming years, even despite a draft that’s smaller than it used to be.
2021 Draft Post
Round 1: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (GA)
The M’s eschewed the expert consensus over who they’d pick (mostly UCLA SS Matt McClain, and, failing that, one of the top college pitchers) as well as their own history, going for HS C Harry Ford of North Cobb HS in Georgia. The freakishly-athletic Ford has a big bat, but also drew raves for his speed, leading some to think he could play in the OF down the road.
The M’s have been very consistent at the top of the draft, especially under Jerry Dipoto. They’ve taken a college player every year, from Kyle Lewis, then Evan White, and then the run of college pitchers with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Emerson Hancock. Picking at #12, they weren’t going to have the ability to grab an absolutely elite, top-of-the-scale, in-the-running-at-1:1 prep product. That’s what makes this pick so interesting; how did they get enough information after two Covid-impacted high school seasons to feel comfortable taking Ford here? As we talked about with Chris Crawford yesterday, I think the scouting combine probably helped a number of teams understand what players did well and what they need to work on.
But Ford didn’t attend MLB’s Draft Combine, so the M’s were evidently convinced by their scouts that they had seen enough to know that Ford was a special athlete, and getting down to the third significant digit in his 40-yard dash time wasn’t going to meaningfully move the needle on him. The draft didn’t quite go according to plan, with Kumar Rocker dropping to 10th, and with teams grabbing players hoping for underslot deals just ahead of where the M’s picked. But this doesn’t feel like an underslot play; Ford’s a huge talent, and the M’s apparently got their man. The slot value of this pick is $4.37 million, for those keeping an eye on the bonus pool total.
Even with the Angels, Dipoto’s focused on College players. I think Dipoto’s Angels didn’t draft a first-round HS player, though, to be fair, they surrendered their first rounder for signing free agents like Albert Pujols, and they were comfortable enough to grab, say, Jahmai Jones, *near* the top of the process. Because of all of this, I’m legitimately surprised the M’s went for Ford, but I’m excited to see them break out of what seemed to be a hardened orthodoxy around College talent. Welcome, Harry Ford!
Round 2: Edwin Arroyo, SS, Arecibo Baseball Academy (PR)
Staying in the prep ranks, the M’s take Puerto Rican shortstop, Edwin Arroyo. The M’s have found talent in PR and in the early rounds before (Edwin Diaz!), so this is less of a departure, but Arroyo – unlike Ford – did attend the MLB Draft Combine in North Carolina, so if M’s scouts had less of an opportunity to scout him due to the pandemic, they probably appreciated the ability to see him play games against high-level competition as well as to get some metrics on arm speed/bat speed, etc.
Arroyo’s a switch-hitter, and currently stands at 6’0″ and 170 lbs. I’ve seen him seen as the top prospect out of Puerto Rico this year, continuing PR’s resurgence as a hotbed of baseball talent after a fallow period that ended when Francisco Lindor went #8 in 2011. He’s committed to Florida State, but his slot value is a bit over $1.5 million, making it pretty likely he’ll sign with Seattle.
A personal fave of mine, SS Edwin Arroyo can pick it, throw it, and swing it from both sides of the plate. A very good pick by the #Mariners
Round 3: Michael Morales, RHP, East Pennsboro HS (PA)
Michael Morales is a righty starter out of a Pennsylvania HS that MLB ranked as the #109 prospect coming into the draft. A Vanderbilt commit, Morales throws a low-90s fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a big curve, and a good change that may one day be his best pitch.
There may be some signability questions, as Morales was seen as a back-of-the-first-round or potential Competitive Balance pick, and slid to the 3rd round. These are the kinds of players that Vanderbilt has been pretty successful at convincing to go to college and improve their stock. The slot value here is $733,000, whereas the 2nd-round pick value is double that. The M’s track record on developing pitching may help Dipoto and Co. convince Morales to sign, and it’s also possible that the M’s could save a bit on their first two (or next) picks and redirect some of that to this pick, similar to the way they saved a bit on Evan White in order to convince Sam Carlson to sign back in 2017.
Round 4: Bryce Miller, SP, Texas A&M
Ladies and Gentlemen, a College pitcher! Bryce Miller was a top-100 draft prospect per MLB, Miller’s a senior who’d been a reliever for two years after transferring in from a Texas JC. This year, he made 10 starts, and struck out 70 in 56 2/3 IP. The righty has good stuff, but has struggled with control, and that problem didn’t resolve when he stretched out as a starter. He walked over 5 per 9 this season for the Aggies, and also plunked 13 batters.
Like many players, his season was impacted by the pandemic, as contact tracing forced him to miss a couple of key SEC series. He played in the Cape Cod league in 2019, albeit for less than 10 IP, but between the Cape and A&M (where the M’s were scouting Zach DeLoach last year), the M’s have obviously seen him a fair amount. And more than most players, I imagine he’s a guy with really polarizing reports. He’s got mid-90s velocity, and a curve and slider that can both look intriguing. He tossed 7 scoreless in a non-league game, striking out 15 with no walks this year, and then a game against Alabama in which he went only 2 1/3, striking out 2, walking 2, and plunking *4*, leading to 4 runs allowed. This is a scouting call, and again, it might help that the M’s have done well with pitchers somewhat similar to Miller, including Brandon Williamson.
Round 5: Andy Thomas, C, Baylor University
Andy Thomas is a 5th-year senior at Baylor, a kid who took advantage of the NCAA offering players an extra year of eligibility after last year’s season was mostly wiped out by the pandemic. The California native had a great freshman season back in 2017, and was a finalist for the Buster Posey award for the top collegiate catcher this year. He started 2020 in a slump, so his numbers looked off that year, and seems to have made a great decision to take advantage of that fifth year of eligibility.
He hit .337/.411/.575, and more than doubled his career high in HRs with 11. His BB% was around 11% with a K% of around 13%; over his college career, he walked more than he struck out. I’d imagine that the M’s are looking to save a bit of money with this pick; the slot value is $379,000. More importantly, with Cal Raleigh now in Seattle, and with Harry Ford a long ways off, this team really needs depth at C in the minors. They’ve been filling it through minor league free agents and minor league Rule 5 picks, so this selection helps them re-stock their affiliates with a player with high-level collegiate experience.
More as the draft rolls on, but taking a break for the afternoon.
The *10th Annual* MLB Draft Preview with Chris Crawford
MLB’s amateur draft has been thoroughly rearranged/rebooted/moved around this year, partly due to the pandemic, and partly due to the same manic energy that leads to all sorts of new, limited edition hats that everyone hates. 15 years ago, the draft was still a low-tech affair, conducted by telephone with no TV coverage at all. That changed in 2011, as MLB Network decided to show the first round, and got some Jersey kid named Mike Trout to show up in-studio. Since then, interest in the draft has skyrocketed, and thus, this year, the first round (and competitive balance picks) will be on ESPN today at 4pm. The draft will continue on Monday and Tuesday, with coverage back on MLB Network.
The draft is only 20 rounds this year; up from the pandemic-shortened 5 rounds last year, but still half of what it was before Covid. There are, after all, fewer roster spots to fill after MLB’s restructuring of the minors axed several teams and entire leagues from the affiliated-ball ladder. In addition to having ESPN televise the first round, they’ve moved the draft physically for the first time: it’ll be in Denver, on All-Star Weekend. Many seem miffed that it could essentially compete with the Futures game, as just about anyone motivated enough to watch the draft probably also wants to watch the best prospects play each other. But you can kind of see what MLB is thinking: you’ve got a day to revel in the future of the game and get everyone interested in the stars of 2025 or so.
The draft has seen pretty remarkable changes since I’ve been doing this; the bonus pools that essentially limit what teams can spend were brand new when we started this series, and they may change again in the next CBA, due to be negotiated this year/next year. With so much in flux, it’s nice to fall back to tradition, and a familiar expert to help make sense of all this. So for the *10th year* in a row, I’ve talked with NBC Sports’ Chris Crawford. Chris is a local guy, and you can hear his segments (with fellow friend-of-the-blog Nathan Bishop) on the Ian Furness show every Monday on 950 am KJR. He does some great videos for NBC Sports Edge, like this one on JP Crawford (no relation), and a great podcast called Circling the Bases with other NBC baseball writers (DJ Short, Drew Silva). In the first post of this series, we talked about the M’s looking at Florida catcher Mike Zunino, and not only did the Mariners pick him, but he’s brought everything full circle by making his first All Star team. In that post, Chris waxed poetic about Byron Buxton, who looked set to dominate baseball this year before injuries sidelined him. All of that to say, Chris knows his stuff, and I look forward to this post every year.
1: Last year’s 5-round mini-draft should produce a really deep class for 2021. Has that happened? Is this one of the deepest classes in recent years?
It is not. Now, it’s not the shallowest class, either, but this is not a great class. It looked it was going to be on paper, but some bats — particularly in the college class — didn’t hit, and some pitchers got hurt and/or didn’t perform well. I would say this is an average class, but the added redshirt juniors/seniors/redshirt seniors really didn’t help as much as you might think.
2: Beyond the players themselves, the league has made some sweeping changes to how teams find amateur talent. 150 players attended the North Carolina scouting combine, with games, strength testing, workouts, etc. Essentially a lot of the things teams would do when holding in-person workouts in prior years have now been kind of centralized, allowing teams to get a look at more players, particularly at the top of the draft. What does this do for teams? What does it do to scouting and the need to have a lot of eyes on players all across the country?
I think adding extra looks was big. Look, there’s a lot of development that happens with these kids at that age, and in 2020, scouts just didn’t get as much of a chance to see these players. The workout stuff is nice as well, but really just getting an extra look after the pandemic (not to say we’re still not in a pandemic) is big. Ultimately I think the games they play against their competition is more important? But the more looks the better.
3: In addition to all of that, the top ~100 or so high schoolers will play in the Prospect Development Pipeline (PDP) league through July and August. What do you think MLB wants out of this set-up, and are there any potential unforeseen consequences?
I think again it’s just another way to get looks. Prep prospects are the most volatile prospects and it’s not close. That’s obvious. So getting a chance to see these guys play against each other rather than inferior competition is nice. It’s just taking a little bit of the risk off the top.
4: The other big change this year was the sweeping changes to the minor leagues. There are now fewer leagues, with the lower levels cut back pretty dramatically (Pioneer/Appy leagues). How does this change a team’s draft strategy? Or does it?
I think so, yes. You’ll still see lots of young players drafted and signed — everyone is young if they’re draft eligible, you know what I mean — and they’ll get more “hands on” instruction in the ACL or FCL. But teams will certainly need to draft less for “organizational depth” I think, because you don’t need to fill as many rosters.
5: Ok, ok, let’s talk about the Mariners. The M’s have about $8.5M to spend in this year’s draft, starting with pick #12 (valued at around 4.4 M). Who do you think they take, and who are some of the best picks around #10-15?
Goes without saying, but a college player. Difference this year is it seems like there’s an emphasis — for lack of a better word — on adding a college bat. I think the name that makes the most sense is Matt McLain, a shortstop out of UCLA. He fills a bit of an organizational need, and he is probably the best college bat on the board. That being said, if Sal Frelick of Boston College — a diminutive but talented outfielder — is there, then I think he’s the selection. Just not sure if he falls to 12 at this point. Colton Cowser is kinda in between Frelick and McLain, and he’s an outfielder who could hit for average and power at the highest level and is by no means slow. If an arm like Ty Madden of Texas or somehow one of the two Vandy boys (Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker) fell then yeah, I think they’d swoop. But I’d bet on McClain, Frelick or Cowser being the pick at this point.
6: The M’s have focused on college pitching. We talk about this every year, it seems. They’ve been successful at this; their development group has done extremely well with those high-pick arms, and we’re now seeing Logan Gilbert in the majors. Do you stick with what works – with what your own PD group has been good at – or do you draft for need? The M’s need infielders.
I think sticking with what works here is fine; the Mariners have done a good job of identifying college arms and also understand that they offer less risk. I also think it’s been a case where bats just haven’t made since where they picked, but Dipoto’s history tells you that prep players just aren’t going to get drafted high. You just have to go with best player available in my opinion. if there’s a “tiebreaker” than taking the one who offers less volatility makes sense. But unfortunately this year is an awful class of infielders after the big name shortstops — so the two just kinda match. Again.
Just a quick hit this year, given Chris’s busy schedule this week. A reminder that the draft will be on ESPN today at 4pm Pacific, 7pm Eastern. It’ll be back at 1pm Pacific tomorrow for the middle rounds, and it’ll wrap up the day after. Days 2 and 3 can be seen on MLB Network.
So far, most mock drafts have the M’s taking Matt McClain, SS, from UCLA, just as Chris discussed above. Where the two big Vanderbilt pitchers go could really shake things up; Jack Leiter wants to fall to Boston at #4, but no one thinks he will. Meanwhile, Kumar Rocker’s velo inconsistency could see him slide down towards #10, but I’m starting to think that teams are overly harsh on draft-year inconsistency (see Carlos Rodon, Sean Manaea, etc.). Can’t wait to see how it shakes out. And don’t forget the futures game itself! Coverage starts at noon, so you can watch before the draft. The AL’s line up starts with Bobby Witt, Jr., Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, and then Adley Rutschman. Wow.
Game 90, Angels at Mariners
Chris Flexen vs. Patrick Sandoval, 7:10pm
Last night’s comeback win was one of the most enjoyable of the year. It had one of the most majestic HRs I’ve ever seen, an upper-deck shot from Shohei Ohtani, but also the M’s scoring 7 unanswered to win. Plus, there’s no cooler way to win/take the lead than a grand slam. That’s just science.
Tonight, the M’s face young lefty Patrick Sandoval, a change-up specialist who’s enjoying a breakout year. He’s been able to miss bats in the past, and like several lefty cambio-meisters (Jamie Moyer, for one), he suppresses BABIP. But issues stranding runners and with home runs have made him less effective than his raw stuff would suggest. This year, his change has become a true weapon, and with some good regression in his strand rate, he’s having a solid season.
His four-seam is around 94, and the change comes in 8-10mph off of that, averaging 84-85. He’s not doing a whole lot different than he did last year, but it looks like he’s dropped his arm angle just slightly. Whatever it is, the effectiveness of the change is way, way up.
He also has a slider and rarer curve, but he may be a rare pitcher who has true-talent reverse platoon splits; this may be a better match up for JP Crawford or Kyle Seager than Mitch Haniger.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Torrens, DH
6: Fraley, CF
7: Murphy, C
8: Moore, 2B
9: Long, LF
SP: Flexen
Game 89, Angels at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Alex Cobb, 7:10pm
Logan Gilbert’s absolute gem to help shut out the Yankees yesterday cements his status as the potential ace of the M’s next year. That’s good and bad, of course. Marco Gonzales’ poor year makes next year’s rotation a bit more of an unknown, particularly now that Justus Sheffield is on the IL and won’t throw for a while. Gonzales, Sheffield, Justin Dunn and James Paxton have all been on the IL; that’s 4 out of 6. And the two arms lined up as depth, Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome, are themselves both hurt.
But Gilbert’s emergence doesn’t just give them a warm body, an as-yet-unhurt innings-water. As we saw, he can be a shut-down pitcher whose fastball plays way up thanks to elite extension. His change has come on faster than I, for one, thought it would, and that’s helped him avoid platoon problems.
But the M’s have an interesting dilemma if/when Sheff comes back. Their record has them in the wild card hunt, and they can stretch the gap between themselves and Anaheim in this series. If they’re in a race, however weird that is given their offensive woes and attendant run differential issues, they may not be able to let Sheffield (and potentially Gonzales) figure things out. But letting Sheffield work on things is clearly the best plan for *next* year. I’ve been saying that this year counts too, and they need to actually try to win, but giving up on Sheffield seems like a bad outcome not only because the team hyped him up last year, but because they need innings in a go-for-it scenario, and they may need to fix offensive holes first.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Fraley, CF
6: Torrens, C
7: Long, LF
8: Moore, 2B
9: Bauers, RF
SP: Gonzales
The PTBNL in the Jake Bauers deal was revealed today: local overslot pitching prospect Damon Casetta-Stubbs. The Clark County hurler had a real up and down first few years as a pro, but shows flashes of serious bat-missing ability. Now 21, I suppose I get the M’s making him available, particularly given his troubling walk rates, but it still feels like a bit of a high price for a DFA. For Casetta-Stubbs, he’s going to a club with a great record of pitching development.