Game 48, Mariners at Athletics – Tacomafication
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Frankie Montas, 6:40pm
The M’s tumble continues, the line-ups remain underwhelming and underpowered, and now they’ve got to start a series with another of the AL’s better teams. This isn’t going to get easier, though it’s heartening to know Dylan Moore at least is about ready to come off of the IL, and Ty France is officially back tonight.
The M’s offensive struggles are getting all kinds of attention, which is never a good sign. The increase in league-wide K rate and the dramatic reduction in league batting average is seen most in the increasingly-common no-hitters, but it’s also a problem for watchability. It’s harder to promote the game when an entire team – OUR team – is hitting below .200, and just looks lost against good pitching. Velocity and strikeouts continue their inexorable climb, leading to calls to make changes – from subtle to dramatic – to slow or reverse these trends, which are approaching 20 years old.
Today, Craig Goldstein and Patrick Dubuque have a great article at Baseball Prospectus arguing for restrictor plate for pitching – this was the device that limited the speed of stock race cars to avoid some of the big accidents that hit NASCAR in the 1980s. Like all changes, it had unintended consequences, which is something we’ve been talking a lot about this year with MLB’s perhaps not completely thought through alterations of the baseball.
Craig and Patrick propose two changes: first, a cap of 12 pitchers on each team’s roster – no more carrying 15 relievers. Second, pitch clocks that are enforced, preventing max-effort relievers from taking a minute between pitches to ensure their max effort really is maximum. They believe this would prioritize the development of starters who could work longer into games, reduce the velocity that seemingly every reliever throws at, and generally bring some balance back to the game – helpfully avoiding a bunch of late-game pitching changes as a side benefit to the pace-of-play worriers.
It’s an interesting argument, and one I’ve been thinking about all day. But I think it has a problem with the way that it structures its incentives; I think it’s going to make every big league club operate like the M’s in 2021, or, in other words, it would lead to Tacomafication. Trader Jerry not only likes to make a ton of trades at the big league level, he’s extraordinarily active on the waiver wire. To provide depth for an influx of new relievers/pitchers at the big league level, the M’s have to have *more* depth in AAA for the M’s to choose from. This culminated in the M’s using a jaw-dropping 57 pitchers in the 2017 season. Well, the 2021 season is not yet a month old, and the Tacoma Rainiers have now used…27 pitchers. They show no signs of slowing down.
With injuries, Covid scares, ineffectiveness, and the need to limit innings on starters following last year’s short season, demand for relievers is up. As Craig and Patrick write, teams are loathe to let reliever pitch in back-to-back games, which helps explain why pitchers are taking up a bigger share of the roster and why the added roster spot has generally gone to a pitcher. The Rainiers essentially act as the off-day program for the back of the M’s bullpen. We’ll see Aaron Fletcher and Wyatt Mills come up whenever there are injuries, and then they go back down after they pitch. All of this means that *Tacoma* then has pitchers who’ve pitched the previous day (for a different team), necessitating the increasingly-regular calls to Everett and/or Modesto. Or, failing that, the waves of minor league free agents and waiver claims that have given Tacoma Brooks Pounders, Ryan Dull, Taylor Guerrieri, etc.
But that’s just Jerry ADHDipoto in a pandemic year. What does this have to do with BP proposal? Well, I think the easy way for teams who were probably getting the shakes just reading the proposal to have the benefit of 16 relievers while rostering 12, is to churn the back of the ‘pen like never before. Or, like Tacoma. Teams will yo-yo the back of the bullpen, a process that may have gotten easier with the restructuring of the minor leagues keeping affiliates closer to their big league team. I think it actually *will* return some semblance of the baseball we knew from the prehistoric days of 2012 or so, in that the best 3-4 relievers won’t get yo-yo’d, and they may need to pitch in back to back games. But teams are going to want to play match-ups, to space out innings for their top set-up guy, and generally use more arms than the new rule would seem to allow.
So, what’s wrong with that? Things change, the back of the 26-man and 40-man have rarely been safe, developmental slots, and much more often the site of Jacob Nottingham-style precarity. If the proposal makes MLB more watchable even at the expense/inconvenience of AAA/AA, isn’t that worth it? In theory, maybe – it depends on how much you care about your local AAA club, perhaps. But here’s my judgment after three weeks of watching this in practice: it SUUUUUCKS. To act as Seattle’s remote bullpen, the Rainiers are essentially prevented from having any semblance of a rotation. Logan Gilbert pitched 5 innings in AAA, and was called up. Only one member of the Rainiers is qualified for the ERA title, and it’s still May. And that pitcher (Hector Santiago) wasn’t on the roster on opening day, which was also in May. The Rainiers have lots of relievers because they have to: they are running bullpen days for most games, essentially whenever Santiago and Darren McCaughan (who started the year in Arkansas) pitch. This is crazy, and it’s no way to develop anyone.
The M’s seem to know this. It’s not just that the games get weird or unattractive. It’s that you push the part of the game you’re ostensibly trying to fix down a level, and make it way worse. For fans, this isn’t great, but the annoying thing is that it might actually work for the M’s. If you’re dedicated to this brutalist baseball, you can segregate your approach. The M’s have a bunch of starters who’ve gotten off to fast starts in Arkansas, but with the exception of McCaughan, they’re leaving them there. Arkansas is for starting pitchers to develop and play normal baseball (5,6,7 IP starts). Tacoma is for 2 IP outings at most, for waiting on the nightly call-ups, and introducing yourself to the day’s crop of low-A call-ups and waiver claims.
This can work fine as a crutch, and I fear that teams would use it as such. I still don’t think this actually works to develop things like big league starters, and I don’t think it really helps get pitchers from the roster-churn spots up into the Kendall Graveman tier of effective, non-churning elite. It doesn’t end the merry-go-round of anonymous, 95-throwing relievers who, thanks to the magic of option years, yo-yo up and down all year – it ossifies it, it locks it in.
Some teams can get around this by spending in free agency, and others can either get great relievers in trade, or by relying on their own development group. That must be nice. But I’ve seen the 2021 Tacoma Rainiers, and fear that they’re a model we may see repeated if roster limits are imposed. Does that mean we shouldn’t try it? I dunno; it’s possible you could enforce similar or complementary limits down the line. I get worried about injuries further down the chain, so perhaps you relax them a bit as you get lower on the MiLB ladder. I worry that none of this will necessarily bring back base hits, which seems to be the thing people want, rather than HRs and mis-hit flies. But, ultimately, we won’t know until it happens.
Whhiiiich, it probably won’t. I think neither side on the CBA negotiation would see a lot of upside in the restrictions, unless you could convince ownership that it’d help pace of play and TV viewership. But MLB tv viewership seems remarkably inelastic with respect to things like time-of-game or percentage of the roster devoted to the back of the bullpen. It moves when a team is awful, and they know that, but I think owners view the modern bullpen strategy as a way to get more-or-less decent/average production for a fraction of the cost, and that’s why they’ll stick with it.
Thoughts? Concerns? Counter-arguments?
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: Crawford, SS
6: France, 1B
7: Godoy, C
8: Nottingham, DH
9: Walton, 2B
SP: Kikuchi
Today’s roster churn/moves: the M’s claimed 3B Travis Blankenhorn off of waivers. He’d been with the Dodgers system, and has been optioned to Tacoma. Sam Haggerty moves on to the IL with an injured shoulder. Former Met/Oriole Logan Verrett is now with the M’s? He’d pitched in Korea in 2018, and signed a minor league deal with Oakland the following year, but I don’t think he pitched in 2020.
Taylor Trammell was named the AAA-West player of the week, which seemed like an obvious choice.
AAA Tacoma has the minor league stage to themselves tonight with all other leagues off. They kicked off at 6:05, with the Rainiers facing Round Rock yet again at Cheney. Starting for Tacoma is the aforementioned new claim of the day, Logan Verrett.
Game 47, Mariners at Padres – Getaway Day
Justin Dunn vs. Yu Darvish, 1:10pm
It’s getaway day in San Diego, as the M’s head to Oakland tomorrow. After 5 straight losses and a line-up that can charitably be called “sub-optimal,” the M’s just need to get out of this series and this city. As many have said, the M’s simply aren’t in the Padres class right now, and now they’ll face Yu Darvish, one of the Pads best starters. They’ve been comprehensively outclassed, and in the final game of the series, they’re 3:1 underdogs, and that seems kinder than it needs to be.
Defensive miscues, a bout of wildness, and some well-timed hits helped the Padres pull away from Seattle yesterday, so now it falls to Justin Dunn to try and be the stopper that the M’s desperately need. To do so, he’ll need to be just about perfect given the line-up supporting him.
Yu Darvish is again one of the top starters in the league, putting that weird 2018-19 hiccup behind him and pitching to a 2.80 FIP and an ERA solidly under 2. He’s still striking out over 30% of batters, and his walk rate remains low. He uses his 6-7 pitch mix to dial in just what he needs, and it’s helped him strand nearly 90% of runners. That may regress some, but his BABIP is incredibly low, in large part because he’s leaned into his new park and the new ball.
Like some other pitchers the M’s have seen recently, Darvish pitches backwards, relying on a cutter or slider (depending on who you ask) as his primary pitch. It’s…it hasn’t been great, in and of itself, but as a breaking ball (or breaking-ish fastball), it can induce some weaker contact. MLB calls it a cutter and sees a high BA-against, but nothing crazy. Brooks calls it a slider, combining his slider/cutters, and sees it as a decent but unspectacular pitch. What this approach has done, though, is help make his fastball a dominant, dominant pitch. The whiff rate on it is through the roof, but so too is the angle batters hit it (when they’re able to hit it). For years, the average angle on his four-seam has been in the low-20s, but it’s now at 36%. He’s not getting elevated contact with it, he’s getting *mis-hit* contact with it. That helps explain the low BABIP and the great HR/9 mark he’s put up. His GB rate is 41% for his career, and has been fairly reliably bouncing between the high 30’s and low 40s. It’s now at 30. He’s daring batters to hit the new, deadened ball out of Petco, and each attempt results in either a strikeout or a pop-up.
It’s worth remembering that Darvish moved from Chicago for a package of not-that-heralded prospects and a bottom-of-the-rotation starter. No, it wasn’t quite the Nolan Arenado heist, but then, Darvish still has a few years on his deal. Not only did the Padres get a Cy Young contender, but they also got his personal catcher, Victor Caratini, while protecting their big prospects like MacKenzie Gore, Luis Campusano, CJ Abrams, Ryan Weathers, and Tucupita Marcano. Must be nice.
1: Walton, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: Godoy, C
6: Haggerty, LF
7: Nottingham, 1B
8: Mayfield, 2B
9/SP: Dunn
Brady Lail was claimed on waivers by Philadelphia, but Jose Marmolejos cleared waivers, and will head to Tacoma.
Speaking of the Rainiers, they beat the Round Rock express 9-5 in a game that featured 7 HRs. Jake Fraley and Luis Torrens hit back to back HRs to begin the game. Round Rock hit 4, but Hector Santiago pitched effectively – giving up 3 dingers to go 5 IP with 3 runs allowed. That’s a classic Santiago game right there. Max Roberts, just called up from the low minors, was great in his AAA debut, tossing 2 scoreless with 3 Ks. He may head back to Modesto so the R’s can get another pitcher a chance. Today, that “another pitcher” is Bernie Martinez, who’ll be making his AAA debut as well.
Arkansas beat Corpus Christi 6-2 behind Devin Sweet’s best game of the year. The change-up artist had control issues in his first game of the year, but didn’t walk anyone last night, going 7 IP giving up 2 R (1 ER) and striking out 8. Jake Scheiner hit his 7th double, and Dom Thompson-Williams hit his first HR on the year. Tyler Herb makes his second start in his return to the org.
Everett lost to Spokane 7-5, as the Indians scored 4 in the 5th to take the lead. Julioooo went 1-4, Brandon Williamson gave up 4 R in 4 2/3 IP, striking out 9. Juan Then starts today’s game.
Modesto won a slugfest at Inland Empire, 10-7. IE racked up *6* errors in the game. Noelvi Marte went 0-5, but Trent Tinglestad went 2-4 with a double. Damon Casetta-Stubbs starts for the Nuts tonight.
Game 46, Mariners at Padres
Justus Sheffield vs. Ryan Weathers, 5:40pm
The M’s sit at 21-24. They’re on a losing streak, culminating in last night’s 16-1 drubbing. So I’ll stipulate that it’s been a painful week, and the Covid drama of the past few days has definitely not helped. But this is about as pessimistic as I’ve seen the M’s fanbase in a long time, and…that’s odd. I mean, look: I’ve been pessimistic for years/decades. This team just *does* that to people. But as much as I found the over-the-top optimism of April to be misplaced, I’m not sure the burn-it-all-down feelings are warranted, either.
This team wasn’t supposed to be good, and is not, in fact, good. I feel like there needs to be a mismatch between expectations and results to wring this much emotion out of a scarred fanbase. I think part of it must be the daily ledger of transaction that feeds the perception that the team wasn’t fully ready to go, that the roster had pretty massive holes – not to compete for a title, but to just go out and play in/complete a 162 game season. That’s warranted, and everything’s cascading down to Tacoma, who seem destined to beat their own record for most pitchers used in a season.
Part of it has been the slow starts for both Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic. Gilbert’s struggled against two anemic offenses, and Jarred Kelenic’s shown flashes, but is 5 for his first 34. This frustration is understandable, to a point. I think the team built up these two – and especially Kelenic – as instant saviors, and they’re not. I think those of us who roasted the team for manipulating Kelenic’s service time probably fed into that, with the arguments that the M’s were making their current team worse by not bringing him up. Well, now he’s here, and the M’s have been no-hit and swept by the Detroit Tigers. This is an emotional response, though, not really a rational one. I’m still bullish on Kelenic and once his ~.150 BABIP corrects, he’ll be a solid MLB hitter; that process could start today.
Gilbert’s a bit more of a concern, just given how hard and how consistently he’s been hit by batters who haven’t done much hitting. The plane on his four-seam has resulted in an absolute ton of line drives and fly balls, and that’s just hard to do in today’s game, deadened ball or no. I still think that starting from a framework of really good control, 94 mph velo and some breaking stuff gives him a very, very high floor. I think with a few tweaks, he can be a more than serviceable mid-rotation piece.
The biggest unanswered question with all of this is: are the M’s the team that can make those tweaks? Are the M’s the team that can get the most out of Kelenic’s undeniable talent? Are they the team that plug roster holes intelligently? The M’s are in this position – really since about 2002 – because a series of front offices could neither reliably identify the talent *they already had* or build depth to support that talent through free agency and trades. The team has developed a few transcendent talents. The team’s brought in some amazing players in free agency. What they couldn’t do was fill in around that, and they had a number of chances to do so.
Part of the problem there’s been that different years have had different incentives and goals. At times, it was go all-in and win now, and that’s how you lose Shin-Soo Choo, Adam Jones, or, more recently, Pablo Lopez and Freddy Peralta. At other times, the club was content to build around high draft picks, but for a variety of reasons, that didn’t quite work out. There’s no doubt that the current rebuild has left the team with way more talent than they’ve had in years. I don’t think Kelenic’s the same as Dustin Ackley, as hyped as Ackley was. But it’s still not clear that the M’s are any closer to figuring out how to fill in around him.
This is strange. This FO has tried to build so many different TYPES of team, and has partially succeeded at it, but they still can’t make those teams great. I still remember the way Dipoto talked about building a 1970s style team in 2018, one led by Dee Strange-Gordon and designed to hit for high average. They…kind of did that, but it wasn’t enough. Now, they’ve got an extremely 2021 team with more power, plenty of patience, and a very low average, but that’s not exactly working either. I hope they know what they want, because they can’t waste an offseason: they need to bring in players this winter to help the new, Kelenic-led club compete. They need pitchers, a deeper bullpen (I know there are a lot of injuries, but it often feels like Graveman and some question marks), catching, IF help, etc. All of this is predicated, though, on figuring out what’s going on for players like Evan White and, to a lesser extent, JP Crawford: players at the early side of prime age who seem to be regressing.
Today’s starter for the Padres, Ryan Weathers, is interesting in that he has some slight similarities with Logan Gilbert, but has fashioned a very different approach. Weathers throws 60% four-seam fastballs at around 94. So far, so Gilbert. His primary breaking ball is a slider that doesn’t have much in the way of spin or spin efficiency, but it’s produced decent results. He’s got a third pitch – a change instead of Gilbert’s slow curve – but he’s primarily a four-seam/slider guy.
Gilbert approaches each PA like a power pitcher: he’s trying to strike you out, and his fastball’s a big part of that – both to get ahead, and to get whiffs at the top of the zone. His control and confidence mean he’s in the zone a lot, and thus gets a lot of swings. That’s helped keep walks low, but all of those swings on fastballs has meant that a few of them get hit really hard. Weathers throws the same pitches about the same percentage of the time, but seems to know – or has learned – he’s not going to overpower people with them. His fastball’s produced great results despite the fact that it has extremely low spin (lower than Gilbert’s below-average FB), and thus sinks quite a bit. He doesn’t always use it like a sinker – he’s fine throwing to the top of the zone – but it’s helped him run normal to above-average ground ball rates. You can’t give up HRs on grounders, so that’s clearly helped. His slider’s harder than Gilbert’s, but it’s equally low-ranked in terms of spin, and it’s used more like a cutter. Where Gilbert uses his to get swings out of the zone, Weathers keeps his *in* the zone, either to grab a called strike or to generate some balls in play, a little like Zach Plesac did. It’s possible that Weather has just gotten lucky and Gilbert unlucky, but Weathers’ transition to MLB has gone quite smoothly, despite the fact he’s only 21.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Nottingham, 1B
6: Crawford, SS
7: Murphy, C
8: Mayfield, 2B
9/SP: Sheffield
Today’s transaction report includes the news that the M’s just plucked Ty Kelly from the Long Island Ducks in the independent Atlantic League. Kelly was in the M’s org years before, having a great campaign in Tacoma before being traded for SP Sam Gaviglio in mid-2015. He went on to get some big league time with the Mets and Phillies, and played in the WBC for Team Israel. What’s notable here is that he retired from baseball, opened a food truck, and talks/writes about the game online. I had missed the part where he unretired to play in an indie league, and then it turns out he didn’t quite make it to the indie league, being pulled back to affiliated ball.
The M’s also traded the recently DFA’d Domingo Tapia to the Royals, and picked up RP Danial Zamora, who’d just been waived by the Mets. Zamora is a lefty slider-specialist, so figures to be used as a LOOGY. His fastball’s only 88, but he really pitches off of the slider – throwing it about 3/4 of his pitches. He’ll go reinforce Tacoma, as will Wyatt Mills and Aaron Fletcher, who’ve been optioned back as Anthony Misiewicz and Robert Dugger are back from the Covid/contact tracing IL.
In the minors, Tacoma’s coming off a win in Round Rock, as Darren McCaughan went 6 solid IP to help the R’s to a 6-1 win. Cal Raleigh homered and doubled, and Taylor Trammell, Dillon Thomas, and Jantzen Witte all doubled. That’s doubles in consecutive games for Raleigh. Jantzen Witte was back at 3B after being called in to pitch in the previous game, a 10-5 Express victory. Kind of shocked that was the first time a position player pitched for Tacoma, who’s churning their roster as much as Seattle. No word on the Tacoma starter tonight, but Round Rock starts the aforementioned Sam Gaviglio.
Arkansas swept a double-header in Corpus Christi on the 20th, with Ian McKinney pitching a (7IP) CG and striking out 11 in game 2. Last night, the Hooks won an extra inning contest 7-6. Jake Scheiner and Joe Rizzo both had two hits, including a double. McKinney seems like he’s due for a promotion, especially given the state of Tacoma’s rotation, and given the fact that he’s struck out 29 in just 17 excellent innings. Today, Devin Sweet gets the start for the Travelers.
Everett beat Spokane 8-6 thanks to HRs from Carter Bins and Jack Larsen. Bins also added a double. Stephen Kolek started and went 3 scoreless. The M’s giant Brazilian reliever Igor Januario gave up a run in relief, but I hadn’t heard much from him in years – glad to see he made a huge leap from the DSL team in 2019 all the way up to high A this year. Julio Rodriguez went 0-4, but had two walks. Brandon Williamson gets the start tonight. He’s yet to give up a run in 8 IP and has 17 Ks.
But if it’s impressive K rates you want, check out Modesto starter Taylor Dollard. He got the loss in last night’s 3-2 contest against Inland Empire, giving up 3 runs in 4 2/3. But he struck out 11, giving him 29 on the year in just 13 2/3 IP. He was a 5th round pick in the short 2020 draft out of Cal Poly. Noelvi Marte went 2-4. Tonight’s starter is TBD.
Game 45, Mariners at San Diego – Deep Breath
Chris Flexen vs. Chris Paddack, 7:10pm
Sooo, the M’s got swept by the Tigers, made a bunch of roster moves, then had a player test positive for Covid, necessitating a ton more moves. This has not been a good week for your Seattle Mariners. The offense was shut down by a Tigers staff that came in with serious problems, and while the M’s faced the heart of their rotation, it’s not like they did anything against the bullpen, either.
Faced with a catching tandem that has combined to “hit” .156/.202/.305 *and* which has struggled defensively, the M’s decided to option Luis Torrens down to AAA Tacoma, and pulled back Jacob Nottingham from Milwaukee. The latter has spent the month of May in limbo, being pulled between the M’s and Brewers, and his itinerant life on the fringes of a MLB roster looks both weird and deeply unhappy. It’s one thing to be demoted, but it’s almost Kafka-esque to be caught between demotions a thousand miles apart. You could head home and have a beer and lament your lot, but literally, where is Nottingham’s apartment right now? Does he have one? Nottingham can also play 1B, the position he’ll be at tonight, so for additional catching depth, the M’s have called up Jose Godoy from Tacoma. He’s done well in Tacoma, with 2 HRs and a very low K rate thus far.
Luis Torrens has not always looked so lost defensively, a point made by Connor Donovan in this post at LL. That said, he’s had problems with the running game in the past, as we saw last August. Just before the trade that brought him to Seattle, the M’s faced Torrens with the Padres. The M’s didn’t have a ton of SB opportunities, but took just about all of them, swiping four bags in the game, including 3 straight opportunities in one inning, kicked off by some rare Kyle Seager thievery. The M’s pitchers aren’t helping here, but it’s probably a good time to have Torrens work on his defense under the slightly less glaring lights of AAA.
In addition, the M’s DFA’d 1B Jose Marmolejos, who offered very little defensively, and wasn’t hitting. That’s…a tough guy to keep on the roster of a struggling team. They also DFA’d Brady Lail, who’s been on and off rosters now several times over the past year, and sent OF Jake Fraley on a rehab assignment.
So yesterday’s transactions – like so many involving the M’s – involved a rueful head nod, and the hopes that Tacoma’s coaches can help a player in a tailspin after Seattle’s could not. But today’s! Oooh boy. Ok, so Robert Dugger, Drew Steckenrider, Anthony Misiewicz, and Will Vest are all on the IL with unspecified *cough COVID* issues. Replacing them are the back-from-injury Keynan Middleton, Aaron Fletcher, Wyatt Mills, and Yohan Ramirez. For good measure, they brought up IF Eric Campbell. This is what can happen, I guess, when the maybe 50% vaccinated M’s have a confirmed case in the bullpen. I know management has tried to impress upon the team how important getting the shot is, and there are very attractive incentives at play for the team. The M’s remain unmoved. Some of that is, as Seth Kolloen writes, because the FO hasn’t really earned the players’ trust after the Mather incident this winter. Some of it is that weird, entitled, sense that no sense of shared responsibility may infringe upon convenience and “choice” – as skewered in this brilliant post by David Roth after the Mets struggle to get players vaccinated came to light.
This feels different, though, in that the M’s are voluntarily depriving themselves of such choices/liberties as “being able to leave their hotel.” This feels like a bizarre reflection of the current/fraught culture wars: the M’s choices leave them clearly, rightly *less* free to make choices, and by so doing, they can complain bitterly about powerful entities *depriving* of that freedom. The added layer here is, as Colin O’Keefe notes, many of the just-IL’d are kind of on the fringes of the roster. They could be replaced at any point with the equally/slightly-more fringe players now in Tacoma, but the Tacoma roster is 100% vaccinated. Players generally are loathe to give up a roster advantage like that, but here we are. And yes, many of these players may have been partially vaccinated, or haven’t hit 2 weeks past the second shot yet, but still: it’s odd to put yourself at a competitive disadvantage like this.
So, tonight the M’s start a series in San Diego, with the M’s facing one-time phenom and now bottom-of-the-insanely-good-rotation guy, Chris Paddack. As you’ll remember, Paddack rides his at-times unreal change-up to success despite average FB velocity and despite breaking stuff that hasn’t developed as fully as the cambio. It worked in his rookie season of 2019, but, like many pitchers, he was absolutely sunk by a tidal wave of HRs last year. His rising, high-in-the-zone fastball was easy to elevate, and with the ball playing the way it did last year, not even San Diego’s park could keep them in play. Has the new ball helped him? Yes, definitely. His HR rate has fallen by more than half, from over 2 per 9 last year to under 1. He’s still not quite able to profit from this, though, as he’s struggled to strand runners, and as his walk rate’s grown from microscopic to merely small. He’s posted even-ish platoon splits in his career, but is running reverse splits this year. This may be a better match-up for righties, but it’s possible that he’ll struggle again with his fastball to RHB/LHB alike. That said, as we saw in the John Means no-no, the M’s often have trouble with change-ups. Let’s hope those problems don’t resurface.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: Crawford, SS
6: Nottingham, 1B
7: Murphy, C
8: Walton, 2B
9/SP: Flexen
Game 44, Tigers at Mariners – No-Hit Again
Logan Gilbert vs. Tarik Skubal, 7:10pm
I think Spencer Turnbull is a better pitcher than is commonly understood, and he pitched a very good game last night. But this M’s offense is pretty bad right now, and it may get worse: Dylan Moore has been moved to the 10-day IL, with Jack Mayfield (a glove-first SS) coming back up to the M’s. After their second no-hitter of the month, the M’s team average dipped below .200, as they enter play tonight at .199 collectively. I said it in the off-season, but this was always going to be a problem, and I’m not sure what the M’s can do to solve it. Yes, the league itself has seen average plummet, and there are some good teams having trouble stringing together base hits. But they work around their lack of average by hitting for power, or, in the case of Cleveland, by pitching well enough to compensate. The combination of a deadened ball, an extremely tough home park, and a line-up that’s either learning on the job or trying to shake off rust is a combination that’s going to make no-hitters through 6-7 innings a very, very common occurrence this year.
Jarred Kelenic looks a bit lost, but he’ll come around. I’m still hopeful about Logan Gilbert as well, and tonight’s a good opportunity to see if both can take a step forward. All of Gilbert’s strikeouts came on his slider, and that’s a pitch he can lean on in tight situations. His fastball got hit hard against Cleveland, so hopefully facing an even more anemic offense can give him the confidence to use it, to keep it elevated, and follow it with his somewhat rare slow curve.
Today’s opposing starter is Tarik Skubal, a hard-throwing lefty out of Seattle U. MLB.com had a good story about this sort-of homecoming (he’s from Arizona). He was an intriguing prospect during his sophomore year, but blew out his elbow during the year, requiring TJ surgery. He came back for his junior year after his rehab and was extremely up and down – he’d alternate a dominating start with one where he couldn’t find the plate. He struck out nearly 12 per 9, but walked over 6 per 9. The Tigers grabbed him in the 9th round, and almost immediately, Skubal put it all together.
He was great in high-A, but then, lots of pitchers look good in the FSL. So, the Tigers moved him to AA later in 2019 and all he did was strike out 82 in just 42 1/3 IP. Reports on his velo were glowing, and nobody seemed to be able to put the ball in play against him. Without a minor league season last year, the Tigers brought him to Detroit, and while he managed to strike out more than a batter an inning, he was beset by hard contact, giving up 9 HRs in 32 IP. It was a call-up, in the middle of a pandemic, with a juiced ball. I think everyone was fine giving him a pass on a less-than-stellar debut.
But this year, everything’s gotten worse. He’s given up *11* HRs – most in baseball – in 33 innings, essentially re-juicing the baseball through poor location. In a league where hits allowed are rare, he’s suddenly allowing more than a hit an inning. By statcast, he’s one of the easiest pitchers to barrel up, and he’s allowed far more hard contact than average. Worse, that strikeout rate’s in free fall, as he suddenly has a *below average* rate. Oh, and the walks are back. It’s a small sample in a lost season for a bad ball club, but this is…not what he wanted to see, and not what the Tigers vaunted pitching development wanted. I said much the same thing about Casey Mize, and while Mize has certainly been better this year, he looked like a different guy the other night.
Skubal’s got a varied repertoire, with a four-seamer at 94, a hard slider at 86, a curve, and a splitter that he learned this past off-season, but which he’s recently shelved for a change. His slider’s his out-pitch, but unlike last night where both pitchers had carbon-copy sliders, tonight’s pitchers throw very different pitches. Skubal’s slider is fascinating, in that it’s thrown with very low spin, and it’s thrown with almost no spin efficiency. It’s a gyro-ball, with almost no movement of any kind. That can still be effective – even Felix Hernandez used to have one like that. But it’s lack of movement would pair really well with a sinker with armside run or a four-seam with tons of rise. Skubal doesn’t really have that, though his four-seam does have some interesting horizontal movement.
Still, the grades on his fastball and slider as a prospect were 70 and 60 (per Fangraphs), and it’s kind of interesting to see just how little MLB hitters care. He’ll look good at times, but the mistakes add up. I wonder if he needs to throw a different breaking ball against righties, the prime source of his rather grim stat line. It’s fine against lefties, but righties hit it well. The problem is that the same’s true with his fastball. I’m not sure if he’s tipping it, or if his motion allows righties to see it better, but something’s not quite right.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Murphy, C
6: Crawford, SS
7: Mayfield, 2B
8: Haggerty, DH
9: Marmolejos, 1B
SP: Gilbert
I’ve given Detroit crap about the quality of the Tigers’ line-ups, but they’ve done just enough. The M’s are coming off a no-hitter, again, and yet have Sam Haggerty DH’ing and about as rough a bottom-half as we’ve seen in a while. I mean…ouch.
Salt Lake destroyed Tacoma 9-3. Cal Raleigh had 2 hits, and Taylor Trammell had 1. They’re off tonight.
Arkansas lost in extras to Corpus Christi, 10-8. Jake Scheiner had 3 hits, including 2 doubles. Today’s game’s been rained out.
Spokane stopped the surging Everett Aqua Sox, 5-2. Matt Brash was good but wild, walking 4 in 3 2/3 scoreless, but striking out 5. David Hill struck out 7 in 3 2/3 for Spokane, but the win went to none other than Riley Pint, the former #4 overall pick out of a Kansas HS, and a guy beset by control issues that have kept him in the low minors. Good to see him pitch a nearly-clean inning; he did give up a walk. Hope he can put it together someday. Levi Stoudt starts for Everett tonight.
Modesto destroyed Inland Empire, 14-4. The Nuts got dingers from Cade Marlowe and Noelvi Marte, both of whom are looking like they might need more challenging opponents soon. Marte had 3 hits on the night, and both players have OPS’s above 1.100. Josias de los Santos was great in 5 IP, giving up 1 unearned run.
Game 43, Tigers at Mariners
Justin Dunn vs. Spencer Turnbull, 7:10pm
So, after throwing some shade on Casey Mize AND the Tigers anemic offense, the Tigers hit some HRs and Mize shuts down the M’s easily. You win some, you lose some…to the *Tigers.* Ouch. Seriously, this has been one of the most impressive things about the M’s this year: they win the winnable games. They’re really doing pretty well at beating the teams they should beat, and playing decently enough in the other games. No one expects them to win every game against the Dodgers or Astros, but they haven’t slipped up too many times against the Orioles and the like. Hopefully, they can recover from last night’s humiliation and start holding down this Tigers’ line-up.
Tonight’s opposing starter is righty Spencer Turnbull, a 2nd round pick out of HS back in 2014. He features a good mid-90s fastball, a sinker, and a slurvy, diving slider at around 85. He has good velocity, but a combination of a low-ish release point and what looks like some cut on the four-seamer means that everything he throws is sinking, almost like Justus Sheffield in his first year with the M’s – he has a four-seamer, but that doesn’t mean it’s a rising, top-of-the-zone type of a pitch. He’ll mix in the odd curve and change, and as usual, I’m intrigued by his Pablo Lopez-style, tons-of-armside-run change, and wonder why he doesn’t throw it more.
His slider is really a carbon copy of…Justin Dunn’s. Both are thrown from a near-matching release point (Turnbull’s is fractionally lower) and both have 4″ of horizontal movement and -1-2″ of vertical movement, putting them both pretty far from league average. Dunn’s is thrown about 1mph slower than Turnbull’s, so it has a bit more movement, but we’re literally talking about fractions of an inch.
They’re extremely similar pitches thrown in much the same way. So why are their fastballs so different? As I mentioned above, Turnbull appears to cut his four-seamer, which may be why it shows up with really good spin rates but comparatively little movement: it has much *less* vertical rise than average, while Dunn’s has more (Dunn *also* has slightly above average spin), and Turnbull has essentially zero horizontal movement, while Dunn has more or less what you’d expect for a four-seam thrown at his arm angle. Both players throw remarkably similarly in terms of velo and motion, and both just took very different approaches to being different.
What I mean by that is that both players want their fastball to do something – *anything* -different than what batters are expecting. Turnbull’s cut gives the pitch the appearance of sink, and it’s helped him post really high ground ball rates, and has helped fuel Turnbull’s almost freakishly low HR rates. Dunn’s taken the opposite road, and so his fastball rises more than you’d expect given his arm angle. This is what helps produce mishits and extremely *low* ground ball rates (coming into tonight, Dunn’s GB% is under 30%). Then, having diverged about as much as two very similar pitchers can, they come back and throw identical sliders as their outpitch, but neither guy strikes out batters at even league-average rates.
All in all, it’ll be a cool match-up to watch. Both have taken their distinct approaches and come in with very similar ERAs. Turnbull has a sparkling FIP thanks to low walks and almost no HRs, but he’s struggled a bit to strand runners. As we’ve talked about, Dunn’s big thing is his low BABIP thanks to all of those popped-up balls in play, which help him pitch around his still-troubling lack of control.
1: Kelenic, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, DH
5: Crawford, SS
6: Moore, 2B
7: Torrens, C
8: Marmolejos, 1B
9: Haggerty, LF
SP: Dunn
Jarred Kelenic gets his first start in CF tonight, with Kyle Lewis DH’ing.
Tacoma beat Salt Lake last night 7-3 behind yet another dinger from Taylor Trammell. Jimmy Yacabonis got the win in relief (it’s all relief; they pretty much have to do bullpen days each day) with 4 Ks in 2 2/3 scoreless. Today, Reeves Martin, a 2019 draft pick called in to support a weary bullpen, gets the spot start against the Bees’ Packy Naughton, whom I mention because I never miss an opportunity to type “Packy Naughton.”
Arkansas kicks off a series with Corpus Christi today with Alejandro Requena starting.
Everett opens a series in Spokane over at Avista Stadium. Matt Brash starts for the Frogs. Spokane’s spent so long as a Rangers affiliate when they were in the NWL, but with the shifting around in the minors, they’re now a Rockies affiliate. The Rockies’ #3 and #5 prospects (Matthew Toglia and Aaron Schunk) are at the IF corners for the Indians, and they also have a couple of pitchers rounding out the Rockies’ top 10 list. They all have the unenviable task of trying to slow down Julio Rodriguez. Good luck with that.
Modesto starts a series with Inland Empire tonight.
Game 42 – Tigers at Mariners – The Underbelly of the AL
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Casey Mize, 7:10pm
With a win yesterday, the M’s took three of four from Cleveland, a team that’s probably better than they looked against Seattle. It’s a great accomplishment for a still-rebuilding M’s team to beat Shane Bieber to win a winnable series. I know: the Indians cannot hit, pretty much at all. You have to look out for one hitter in the line-up. But their pitching depth make them a threat, and after the roughest of starts, the M’s line-up made it hard for Cleveland’s starters to get comfortable. It’s a credit to them.
Remember in the season’s first week or two, we looked at the “clutch” stats for the M’s, and how they were #1 by a mile despite somewhat pedestrian overall numbers? Yeah, it’s still true. They’re hitting .205 with a .285 OBP, so their win-probability added isn’t top of the table anymore (though it’s still, perhaps shockingly, solidly in positive territory). But they’re in front by a mile in clutch, meaning how much better they hit than their OWN baseline stats in close/late situations. As I said in April, this doesn’t show a lot of reliability – teams that are high one month, or one year, don’t reliably repeat that performance – but it remains incredibly entertaining. Kyle Seager is hitting .232, but we don’t care, because it seems like each one of his hits has changed a game, or kick-started a rally. It’s no surprise that he’s the #1 batter in individual clutch hitting in MLB, and JP Crawford, whose hitting I have raked over the coals repeatedly in these pages, is 5th.
Today, the M’s host the Detroit Tigers for three games, and they’ll visit them in Michigan early next month. Even more than the poor-hitting Clevelanders, Detroit really is the soft underbelly of the American League. Somewhat like the M’s, they’re in a big rebuild that’s seen them stock up on college arms in the draft and overhaul their player development group to get more out of those arms. It’s a solid enough plan, and several top arms – including tonight’s starter – have graduated to the big leagues. It…it hasn’t helped.
Yet. No one here is freaking out because Logan Gilbert gave up some dingers in his debut, and I’m sure many Tigers fans are at least trying to remain calm as both Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize have encountered…resistance in their first 50-100 innings at the big league level. It hasn’t helped that their offense gives them essentially no margin for error. Detroit’s offense ranks dead last, as they strike out even more than the whiff-prone Mariners, but don’t walk as much and have significantly less power.
One of their best hitters, Akil Baddoo, is a great story, but when a Rule 5 guy with a K rate approaching 40% is your success story, it’s looking bleak. The fact that Baddoo was plucked from another system highlights just how barren the cupboard’s been for Detroit, and how much they’ve struggled to develop hitters. They have a chance now with #1 overall pick Spencer Torkelsen, but he’s a ways away and can’t do it all by himself. In the meantime, they’ve got to use retreads like Nomar Mazara, Robbie Grossman, and Jonathan Schoop along with late-period Miguel Cabrera while hoping their pitchers can keep them afloat. They’re like a mirror-image Baltimore Orioles, who sent away the likes of Manny Machado and just hoped that one day they could develop a pitcher. What’s terrifying for Detroit is that 1) it’s taken the Orioles years, and they’re still quite bad and 2) they’re currently better than Detroit.
Casey Mize was the #1 overall draft pick in 2018 out of Auburn, where he racked up 156 Ks to 16 walks in his draft year. In his first full year of pro ball, Mize pitched well, but his strikeout rate fell down markedly to 8-9 per 9IP. That’s good, it’s solid, but it’s not what you’d want from a #1 overall pitcher starting the year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. With still-low walk rates and a very good splitter, it didn’t slow his progression any – the FSL couldn’t touch him, and he encountered only sporadic resistence in AA. Without a minor league season, the Tigers called him up last year to make seven starts.
Unfortunately, the Casey Mize they got hasn’t looked like the guy they heard glowing reports on from the minors. Worse, that’s beginning to sound kind of familiar for Tigers fans. Casey Mize throws a four-seam fastball at 94-95, a hard slider at 88, that good split-change at 87, and a rare change in the low-80s. This is a deep, varied arsenal that should help him face lefties and righties alike, but to date that simply hasn’t happened: lefties eat him alive. The low walk rate in the minors hasn’t made the jump to MLB, as he’s walking about 10% of opposing hitters thus far. The strikeout rate fell when he moved to MLB (so far so good), and has dropped even more this year compared to his call-up year (not so good). At this point, his K% is in the 11th percentile in MLB, driven by an inability to miss bats. To top it all off, he’s had serious home run trouble.
This sounds a bit like the problems former Seattle U standout Tarik Skubal has had. He’d gone from intriguing enigma to minor league beast in the Tigers system, adding velo to the point he occasionally touched 100 from the left side. He was one of the minors biggest strikeout pitchers in 2019, and, like Mize, made his debut for Detroit last year as there was nothing much more to teach him at the Alternate Site. The K’s were always going to drop, but he kept them high-ish last year, with a K% over 27%. But it came at a cost, as batters hit him much harder than their minor league peers, giving Skubal a serious HR problem. That has not subsided this year, as he’s given up 11 already, tied for most in MLB even though he’s not a qualified starter. What HAS subsided is that bat-missing stuff, as his K rate is down significantly while his walk rate has grown. This rebuild can’t work if Mize and Skubal regress.
The saving grace for Mize at least has been a very low BABIP. Given all of the regression, at least he’s hung on to the single most-likely-to-regress thing. But here, there’s perhaps a bit more hope, as while Mize’s splitter has shown very little ability to miss bats, it’s helped him generate ground balls, and his GB% has jumped from under 40% to over 50% this year (both are, duh, small samples). Fewer HRs thanks to the GB spike (and new baseball) along with fewer hits could potentially make for an okay mid-rotation starter – not what the Tigers want, but something they’d perhaps accept. But even that’s a ways off, and would likely require the walk rate coming down.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: Crawford, SS
6: Marmolejos, 1B
7: Murphy, C
8: Haggerty, RF
9: Walton, 2B
SP: Kikuchi
The M’s officially lost OF Braden Bishop today, as the San Francisco Giants picked up the ex-Washington Husky on waivers. I’m happy for Bishop, who joins the org near his childhood home, and the org that employs his brother, Hunter. I seriously hope he has some further big league opportunities there, and that if nothing else, he gets some games with his brother. As always, support his charity, 4Mom.org supporting research for cures and supporting caregivers dealing with the scourge of Alzheimer’s Disease.
The M’s optioned IF Jack Mayfield, who didn’t get in a game, and brought up reliever Brady Lail, who appeared in a few games last year. They also DFA’d Domingo Tapia, which I didn’t see coming. He looked good in the spring, before an ill-timed injury slowed his progress and probably kept him off the opening day roster. He got 2 IP with Seattle in early May, but has been a solid reliever for Tacoma thus far. As we’ve seen in recent years, Tacoma’s going to run through pitchers like crazy this season.
Speaking of the Rainiers, they lost yesterday’s game in Salt Lake 9-8. It was yet another bullpen game, and Tapia was the best of the bunch, tossing 1 1/3 scoreless with 2Ks. Unfortunately, they gave up 4 HRs (including 3 by Scott Schebler) which was enough to overcome HRs by Taylor Trammell (who Salt Lake would like to stop facing *right now*) and Jose Godoy. Tonight’s starter is TBD.
Springfield won the series finale against Arkansas 1-0, spoiling the org return of Tyler Herb, who pitched 6 IP, giving up the 1 R on 4 H and no walks. Brent Honeyman doubled for the sole hit the Travelers logged.
Everett capped off a six-game sweep of Tri City in style, winning 20-3. Julio Rodriguez ran his consecutive-games-with-a-HR streak to 4, and Zach DeLoach homered as part of a 3-6 night. Juan Then went 2 2/3, and then Isaiah Campbell went 4 IP giving up 2 R (1 ER) and striking out 7. Brendan McGuigan capped it off with 2 scoreless innings and 5 Ks, giving him a season line of 8 IP, *0H*, 2BB (1 intentional), and 14 K’s. That’s…that’s pretty good.
Modesto beat Rancho Cucamongo 8-7 *despite* being out-homered 4-0. SP Damon Casetta-Stubbs had a disastrous outing, giving up 3 of those dingers and 5 runs in only 2/3 of an inning. But they battled back, as Victor Labrada and Robert Perez both had 3 hits, and ultimately the Nuts 13 total hits were enough to outlast the Quakes.
Everyone’s off tonight except Tacoma.
Game 40, Indians at Mariners
Justus Sheffield vs. Triston McKenzie, 6:10pm
Sooo, maybe Jarred Kelenic doesn’t really have “bad match-ups” after all. Everyone has platoon splits, or a pitch arsenal, or tunnels, or usage that might be advantageous or disadvantageous to left-handed batters. All of that stuff can change the probabilities of a good night at the dish, and it’s helpful to think about in any M’s match-up. But here’s the thing: some players don’t care about that stuff because they sit outside of it. Not that they’ll never have platoon splits of their own; of course they will. But that you can’t apply what’s true in the main to players so far off at the end of the talent distribution. The rules still apply to them, but they become little nudges, mere suggestions. It’s two games in, and I pretty firmly believe that we can’t analyze the match-up problems he’ll face (if any) – he IS the match-up problem. What is the opposing starter going to do differently because he’s here?
Kelenic’s HR and 2 2B night was the coming out party we’ve all been looking forward to. It made us all forget about the night before, and think about the thousands of nights to come that he’ll play some role in. It’s really cool. Baseball can make you cynical, and has undoubtedly honed my cynicism. It’s nice for something to break through all of that.
Today, it’s Triston McKenzie’s turn to try and figure out Jarred Kelenic. The skinny right-hander’s a more traditional pitcher in that he pitches off of a straight, rising four-seam fastball, usually near the top of the zone. Like last night’s pitcher, it’s thrown with below-average velo. Also similar to Civale are the change and slider secondaries that are thrown quite firm – 86-87. They have the exact same speed, but break in opposite directions, but are thrown hard enough that it doesn’t really seem like whiffs are what he’s after. His slider and curve (much less break than Civale’s) are put in play less than 10% of the time he throws them. They’re there to get the hitter to wonder what’s coming next, and then to get called strikes or the occasional whiff when the batter’s already in the hole. It’s the opposite approach to Zach Plesac, I think, and it produces something like inverse results.
Not saying that they’re *better* necessarily, just completely opposite. If all I knew about McKenzie was the above, I might assume he was a low-strikeout pitcher like Civale (or Plesac). If he’s fastball-heavy, that shouldn’t lead to whiffs, and maybe it produces a Justin Dunn-style low BABIP? Instead, McKenzie is a strikeout machine, with 76 in his 57 big league innings. His BABIP really is low, so maybe he induces weak/weird contact with that rising fastball? Nooo, he’s the hardest-hit pitcher in MLB this year. By average exit velocity, by the percentage of contact that’s defined as hard-hit – however you want to look at it, he’s not succeeding by inducing Plesac-style weak contact. Success for McKenzie is a strikeout. If it’s in play, he’s just hoping it’s hit at someone.
Chris Flexen’s line last night was pretty good, but in an almost-unthinkable-in-2021 twist, he struck out nobody. After posting 21 Ks in his first four starts, covering 23 IP, he’s now struck a grand total of 2 batters in his last three starts (16 innings). The culprit seems to be his cutter, which looked like a swing-and-miss pitch, but has become merely a swing pitch. Batters swing at it nearly 60% of the time, and he’s able to keep it in the zone (and the middle of the zone) without paying too much of a price. But it’s functionally too similar to his fastball, which is ALSO put in play a lot, even despite a lower overall swing rate. I’m not sure what the remedy is, but he’s living dangerously by not being able to miss bats. It IS allowing him to post very low walk rates, and that was always the problem for him before figuring things out in South Korea, but we could use some more Ks. Maybe targeting the edges and off the plate areas with that cutter? Throwing more curves? This is not the biggest problem the M’s face, of course, and Flexen’s cutter being put in play isn’t that bad, as so many of them are ground balls. But it’s odd to see a pitcher look so different in May than he did in April.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: Marmolejos, 1B
6: Moore, 2B
7: Crawford, SS
8: Murphy, C
9: Walton, DH
SP: Sheffield
I know the M’s have been hit hard by injuries, but you bring up Donovan Walton to…uh…DH? Hmmm.
Tacoma lost at Salt Lake, 6-4. Darren McCaughan gave up 5 runs in 4, including HRs by Jo Adell and Anthony Bemboom. Dillon Thomas doubled for the R’s. Tonight, Hector Santiago takes the mound for the R’s. He’s another guy who could see time with the Mariners if the injury to Marco Gonzales persists or if there are further injuries. He’s also one of the only actual starting pitchers the R’s have.
Arkansas jumped out to a 7-2 lead and held on to beat Springfield 8-6. Penn Murfee got the win with 5 IP, and Keegan McGovern hit his second dinger of the year. Tonight, Devin Sweet takes on Domingo Robles of the Cardinals, a former Pirates prospect who pitched for West Virginia in 2018, its last year as a Pirates affiliate, and a year before Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic would start their M’s career there.
Everett beat Tri-City 5-2 thanks to another HR from Julio Rodriguez, who had a slow first two games, and is now scaldingly hot in the high-A North (don’t call it the Northwest League). George Kirby was brilliant through 5 scoreless, striking out 8 *but* issuing the first walk of his professional career. He now actually has a K:BB ratio, and it is 37:1. Brandon Williamson starts tonight’s game.
Modesto easily rode out the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes by a score of 8-2. Taylor Dollard tossed 5 great innings, striking out 8, with no walks, 5 hits, and a run. Cade Marlowe homered and Noelvi Marte went 3 for 6. Victor Labrada, an international signing out of Cuba, started in CF in his first professional game for the M’s and went 2 for 3 with 2 walks. The 21-year old Labrada’s arrival moved Marlowe to LF in what’s probably going to be a very good defensive OF at the low-A level. Sam Carlson starts for Modesto tonight.
Game 39, Indians at Mariners
Chris Flexen vs. Aaron Civale, 7:10pm
So, that could’ve gone better. I’m a Mariner fan, so I wasn’t expecting any kind of story-book game, with Logan Gilbert pitching a shut-out or Kelenic walking it off. But man, getting no-hit into the 8th? I’ll admit that at the time I found it darkly hilarious, but it’s obviously not a great sign, and I feel we’re back to that spot we were in a few years ago, where it seemed like we were on no-hit watch twice a month.
Gilbert sat in the mid 90s, didn’t walk anyone, and looked good at times. He did give up some hard contact, including a HR on both a fastball and a slider. He doesn’t spin any of his pitches all that much, which may be why he’s more of a pitch to (ideally weak) contact guy, but you can see the makings of a really good starting pitcher here. I thought his slow curve was an interesting pitch, with over 20 mph of separation from his FB. He didn’t throw it much in the game I saw in Tacoma – just a couple, as he stuck with his slider (which is itself kind of slurvey).
Kelenic, as I kind of intimated in yesterday’s post, didn’t really have an ideal match-up to start, and I think you can say the same thing again tonight. It was a real contrast between the more old school Gilbert, who threw his heater 60+% of the time, and the pitching-backwards, junkballing Plesac, but clearly, Plesac had the entire team confused, not just Kelenic.
So, what do I mean about the match-up tonight? Well, tonight’s starter, Aaron Civale, takes Zach Plesac’s approach and spreads it over six pitches. I think the best way to think of him is as Cleveland’s Marco Gonzales. Civale has below-average velo; he’ll sit 91 with his four-seam and sinker. He then adds a hard cutter at 87, a slider at 83, a curve in the high-70s, and a good split-change at 85. Combining both of his fastballs, he throws less than 40% straight pitches. To lefties, it’s a blizzard of cutters and changes, and to righties, it’s sliders and curves. No pitch really dominates, so he’s perhaps harder to guess correctly on than Plesac.
But where Plesac wanted you to put the breaking stuff in play, and used his fastball just to remind you that he had it, Civale sees plenty of balls in play on his fastball (though, his four-seamer has the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches), and gets some ground balls, despite solid rise on the pitch. He doesn’t have the swing rates on his secondaries (if you can call them that) to generate the kind of contact that Plesac does, but he still gets swings on his split and slider. The split’s produces loads of grounders, which has helped him top the 50% GB% mark.
But also like Gonzales, this whole approach depends on precision and confusion. There’s just not enough pure stuff to allow him to pitch well on a night he just doesn’t have it. He gets fewer strikeouts than average, again similar to Gonzales (and Plesac!). A straight 91 mph fastball is a problem if it’s not set up and placed well. Thus, after an eye-opening debut in 2019, Civale suffered a bit in 2020 (though he did log the 6th most innings of anyone in MLB), with 11 HRs allowed and just a ton of base hits thanks to a high BABIP. Now he’s striking out even fewer hitters, but he’s 5-0 with a sparkling ERA (and a merely good FIP) – he’s generated weaker than average contact, and despite the fact no one’s swinging and missing, he’s been great thus far.
Yes, he’s a junkballer, but why’s a low-velo righty not a great match-up for Kelenic? Civale’s actually posted reverse splits for his career, with a higher K rate against lefties AND a much lower HR rate. Civale’s slider, a pitch that he likes to throw to righties, has had the worst results of any pitch in his arsenal. He sticks with the slider-y, but harder cutter to lefties, and it’s just more effective across the board. For Kelenic, the key is to find a four-seamer and jump on it. That’s probably true for everyone in the line-up, but righties at least don’t have to fear the breaking stuff.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: Crawford, SS
6: Moore, 2B
7: Marmolejos, 1B
8: Torrens, C
9: Haggerty, RF
SP: Flexen
Evan White’s been placed on the 10-day IL with a hip injury suffered last night. That and his slow start was discussed in a press conference with Jerry Dipoto yesterday, and is summarized in Ryan Divish’s fascinating article here. That article also discusses the M’s low vaccination rate, and their near-100% rate in Tacoma. Promoted players who’ve been vaccinated get to skip some steps, including a 48-hour quarantine if they’ve flown commercial, so there’s a real incentive to get jabbed. That said, the big club has plenty of incentives, too, such as being able to leave the team hotel once the club reaches the 85% vaccinated threshold, and they haven’t worked yet.
Donovan Walton’s been recalled from Tacoma to take White’s spot in the active roster. To cover for the pitching promotions from Tacoma, the M’s signed veteran SP David Huff to a minor league deal, and one-time M’s prospect Tyler Herb. Huff goes to Tacoma, Herb to Arkansas.
The minor league affiliates went 4-0 last night, with the big stars all having great outings.
Tacoma took a tense, 5-5 game in the 7th in Salt Lake and made it into a laugher by scoring 10 in the 7th inning. New guy Taylor Trammell homered in the inning, and went 4-5 on the night. Cal Raleigh hit two doubles. Tonight, Darren McCaughan, recently called up from Arkansas, takes the hill.
Arkansas beat Springfield 3-1 behind 5 solid innings from Ian McKinney. The 26-year old lefty gave up no runs on just 1 hit (but 4 walks) and struck out 9. That’s now 18 Ks for McKinney in 10 IP. Someone’s looking to make it to Tacoma. Penn Murfee starts for the Travs tonight.
Everett demolished Tri-City 15-1, as the Dust Devils simply had zero command on the night. The AquaSox got those 15 runs on just 10 hits, as they also drew *12* walks. They also hit 3 dingers, punctuated by Julio Rodriguez’s 430 foot shot. Emerson Hancock went 2 2/3 IP, giving a run with 4 Ks, and then Bernie Martinez went 3 1/3 scoreless. He’s pitched 6 2/3 IP this year, yielding one run. Tonight, it’s George Kirby’s second start of the year.
Modesto and Rancho Cucamonga played a good old fashioned Cal League slugfest, with the Nuts coming out on top, 9-8. The big story was Noelvi Marte hitting two home runs, and going 3-4 with a walk on the night. CF Cade Marlowe continued his hot streak with a HR of his own. The GA native is now hitting .309/.388/.458 in his MiLB career, covering about 250 at bats. Taylor Dollard gets the ball for the Nuts in tonight’s game.
Game 38, Indians at Mariners – This is the First Day of the Rest of Your Franchise
Logan Gilbert vs. Zach Plesac, 7:10pm
Today is the biggest – the most important, the most momentous – Mariners game in years. After waves of prospects that were supposed to lift the M’s from mediocrity failed, the Mariners bring up two of the best prospects they’ve had in years. OF Jarred Kelenic, a top-10 prospect in baseball, makes his MLB debut after a contentious battle with the front office over his service time. Logan Gilbert, a talented but relatively unknown from a non-power conference college, makes his debut as well, after tearing through the minors and showing poise and command beyond his years. For years, the M’s have told us to be patient, and that a franchise-altering wave was on its way. They had to do this because the vanguard of this baseballing revolution kept failing. Just a year ago, they were really marketing Shed Long, Evan White, and Mallex Smith. This franchise – and more importantly this fanbase – needs something to cheer about, and today, they’ve got it.
The way the M’s social media and marketing department effortlessly pivoted to full-on saturation coverage of today‘s game says a lot. You won’t find Dipoto’s interviews talking about Kelenic needing to hit lefties, or them needing to see X, Y, or Z from Gilbert. It’s all about letting fans see two of the big prospects the club has done so well at getting even casual fans excited about. I’m not being cynical: this is the *job* of social and marketing, and they’re doing it well. The club has talked about how important these players are to the idea of a contending Mariners squad, they *have* to let people know that they’re not in Arkansas, Modesto, Everett, or Tacoma anymore.
And yet I still can’t get Kevin Mather’s voice out of my head. The President of the team admitted that they offered Kelenic a deal that would’ve seen his MLB debut in *2020* but was ultimately rejected. Since that time, they kept him down to ensure another year of club control, but not enough to mess around with the Super 2 deadline. In doing so, they frittered away whatever leverage they had. That’s the entire point behind service time manipulation. If arbitration comes later, or if club control extends further, Kelenic’s long term salary obligations *will be* lower. It’s just that simple. If the M’s were to make another offer of a long-term contract, they would do so under that new framework that spells out exactly how many pre-arb, arb, and free agent seasons they’d be buying out. For the ability to get a slight discount on a seven years of production, or a slight discount on an extension, they’ve royally pissed off their best talent. Yes, Mariners, you successfully won yourself a slight gain in leverage at the cost of worse MLB team performance over parts of two seasons (which, you know, count) AND making Kelenic and his agent mad. Is…is that good?
Someone on Twitter asked me the perfectly rational question: isn’t this good for the M’s? Shouldn’t we WANT our team to secure that extra year? The tacit premise here is that the Oakland freaking A’s aren’t leaving money on the table, so the M’s would essentially be unilaterally disarming. There are two real responses here. The first was put brilliantly by Craig Goldstein at BP back in 2018 (free article) that argues that just because a team *can* do a thing doesn’t tell us much about whether or not they *should.* What the current system incentivizes in more ways than just this one is putting out a *worse product* for some greater good. You can argue that this is just one of many such things, like the amateur draft order, or waiver claims, etc., but it’s an important one in that it governs how a team treats its players. Fans, Goldstein suggests, don’t have to cheer on teams who treat their best young talents in a way that we wouldn’t like if it was done to us. Yes, the CBA allows it, but the assumptions around service time manipulations have become ossified into an expectation that they do it. The CBA itself says that teams may not manipulate service time, but arbitration failed to fault the Cubs for pretty obviously messing with Kris Bryant, so by the letter of the law, anything goes – any excuse is probably going to fly in court. This just doesn’t seem tenable, and doesn’t seem ethical.
The second reason is that it’s often self-defeating. I think at this point it’s a decent assumption that the M’s decades-long playoff streak is a drag on the team and fans. And even still, even with the playoffs expanded to below-.500 clubs last year, the M’s *would not* bring up players who could help them END that streak because of potential cost issues in like 2025. Really think about that. Is that what being a fan of a team is about? Are…are we okay with that? We watched Philip Ervin and Jose Marmolejos play OF for a contending team while Gilbert and Kelenic chilled in T-Town. Is that what we signed up for? Can we even say it made a playoff run more likely in 2027-8? I think it’s really hard to say. I’m pretty sure it impacted 2020, though. And it did so while angering the very player they want to negotiate with. I am really excited these two are making their debuts, and I swear I will get off my soapbox soon, but I think we can’t unlearn what Kevin Mather taught us, and thinking that everything changed when he resigned is insane.
Are Kelenic and Gilbert likely to struggle? I don’t anticipate it. This BP article from Jarrett Seidler explains why, but in Kelenic, the M’s took one of the most polished HS bats in years, and added some oomph to his picture-perfect swing. They’ve got a player who’s had some issues with swing-and-mix, but has really improved in that regard, most noticeably in the Cactus League. He’s grown accustomed to handling lefties, and as Seidler says, he doesn’t get enough credit for his speed and baserunning (that was on display when I saw him steal 2nd off of lefty MacKenzie Gore, who then couldn’t stop throwing to 1st when Kelenic got on base again). I know that Dustin Ackley was seen as a polished bat too, but fans forget just how much of a (surprising) struggle Ackley had at times. He didn’t hit all that well in AA, and was streaky in AAA (he never looked like a sure-fire hitter to me). Kelenic isn’t that and while it’s asking too much for Kelenic to anchor the line-up starting in a few hours, I’m just less concerned about him than any M’s prospect since…I’m not really sure who.
Gilbert, too, doesn’t have to do too much, and will have his innings managed this year (110 or so) and pitches managed tonight (80-85), but that’s where his command comes in. He needed less than 70 to get through 5 in Tacoma, and yes, everything’s going to be much tougher, but avoiding walks and letting better defenders make plays for him is a good plan, and which is a heck of a lot better to ask of your young SP than requiring dominance and long outings. I was insanely hyped for Taijuan Walker’s M’s debut years ago, and intrigued by James Paxton’s. I think my expectations for Gilbert are sort of in that vein. Note that while both Walker/Paxton showed flashes early, and had some prospect hype, they weren’t dominant from the get go. I don’t think Gilbert’s an ace right now, but he will assuredly help this beleaguered rotation.
Also coming up is SP/RP/swingman Paul Sewald, another ex-Met like Chris Flexen. To make room, the M’s optioned Taylor Trammell, Aaron Fletcher and Wyatt Mills to Tacoma, transferred Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome to the 60-day dl, and, somewhat sadly, DFA’d all-around good guy Braden Bishop, who simply never hit enough in his M’s or really Rainiers tenure. I hope he can stick around, and that he can work with some coaches who can unlock something in his swing.
So who’s Kelenic going to be facing in his first game? Another in Cleveland’s assembly line of unheralded pitching prospects. Zach Plesac was a 12th round pick and had great success in his first call-up in 2019, and then looked brilliant in the short season last year. He’s holding his own this year, but he’s not been exactly dominant. He limits walks and hard contact, but doesn’t miss as many bats as you might expect, and perhaps doesn’t pitch the way you’d expect.
He’s got a league-average FB velocity of 93, and uses it up in the zone to get whiffs on occasion. But it’s not his primary pitch at all. To lefties, he pitches off of his change-up that’s thrown pretty firmly at 86 or so. To righties, his primary offering is a hard slider at 87. The fastball is used as a change-of-pace, and he can mix in a curve as well. This approach is something that Matthew Trueblood talked about the other day re: Yu Darvish, a “pitching backwards” approach that essentially makes his four-seamer a 96 mph change-up.
That’s what Plesac’s doing, too, and it’s fascinating to see what he’s attempting. Plesac’s change and slider are not really intended to be swing and miss pitches, even though that’s kind of what we think of when we think of them. Plesac could theoretically get more whiffs if he could take some velo OFF of his change. But I’m not sure that’s what he wants: Plesac’s change and slider are put into play at *double* the rate of his fastball. For most pitchers, you’d expect the opposite, with “chase” sliders thrown way outside, or backdooring opposite-handed batters. But Plesac understands that the wOBA on contact (wOBACON) for fastballs this year is .382. For off-speed pitches, it’s just .321 and that’s *despite* the fact that they’re most often thrown to batters who have the platoon advantage. For sliders? .356; worse than cambios, but still way lower than heaters. So yes, Kelenic gets to open against a righty starter, but he’s going to face an approach he may not have seen much of.
1: Kelenic, LF woooooo
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: France, DH
6: Crawford, SS
7: Torrens, C
8: Moore, 2B
9: White, 1B
SP: GILBERT woooo
The M’s optioned Taylor Trammell, who could use more PAs than will be available in Seattle with Kelenic around. Why not option Evan White? Because he signed an extension, the math around his service time no longer applies, and the M’s face a completely different set of incentives than they do with Kelenic/Trammell. Am I saying that money and not necessarily what’s best for player development is driving this? Not exactly, but without the added incentive of service time, the M’s may just want to keep White with the specific coaches they want. That *could* make sense, but I think it gives short shrift to the environment in which that coaching and development takes place. It’s been a year plus, and I don’t think there’s enough evidence of improvement, which would ideally prompt a re-think. Whoops, am I back on the soap box? I mean, it was just sitting there unused….
The Rainiers are back in action in Salt Lake today with something of an understaffed group of pitchers.
Ian McKinney starts for Arkansas today, who doubled up on Springfield last night 4-2. Jake Scheiner hit his third HR of the year.
Everett, like Tacoma, is playing a ton of extra-inning games, and they won last night’s game in walk-off fashion in the 10th. Kaden Polcovich homered for the Frogs, and Jack Larson plated Austin Shenton with the winning run. Julio Rodriguez went 1-4 with a walk.
Modesto blanked Rancho Cucamonga 4-0 behind a great start from Connor Phillips who sat in the mid-90s, striking out 7 in 5 scoreless innings. Noelvi Marte had two hits.