Game 142, Mariners at Astros
Reggie McClain/Tommy Milone vs. Framber Valdez, 5:10pm
Since 2015, fastball usage throughout MLB has been on a steady decline. From about 62.4% in 2015, fastballs of all types have fallen to 58.4% this year. Pitchers throwing more breaking balls, and teams giving more innings to breaking-ball crazed relievers – this is a long-term trend we’ve talked about here for a few years now. But this trend only really impacts one kind of fastball. Four-seamers haven’t gone away; quite the opposite, they’re up slightly compared to recent years. Essentially the entire trend is the result of pitchers throwing fewer sinkers. Gerald Schifman talked about this at BP earlier in the year, but it’s stark to see the data on BaseballSavant, too.
You all know the story: sinkers were great for a while, as they targeted the areas where the strikezone was expanding, helping suppress offense from 2010-2014. The new strikes and the long-term correlation between pitch height and batted ball (lower pitches were more likely to be grounders) meant that sinkers were ideal tools to help pitchers avoid home runs. Then, somewhere along the way, batters changed how they attacked these pitches, and given that sinkers generated whiffs less often than their four-seam cousins, the cost/benefit changed. I wrote about this before 2017, but 2017 and its juiced baseball even the playing field a bit: for a year, batters did even better against high fastballs (and four-seamers are more likely to be thrown higher).
It’s a balance: batters elevate the ball when they make contact on four-seamers, especially high ones, but they’re much more likely to miss. For several years, those whiffs held down the wOBA-against on four-seamers, even as batters turned more fly balls into home runs. Sinkers went for dingers too, but there weren’t many K’s to balance them out. But this year, with run values up on all kinds of fastballs, we’re seeing something that looks a bit irrational. At this point, the wOBA for four-seamers is essentially identical to the wOBA on sinkers. In previous years, the league-wide preference for four-seamers made some sense. Now, I’m not so sure.
You know who else isn’t sure? The Astros. Sure, sure, they got high-spin four-seam mavens Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole anchoring their rotation, and yes, they turned Cole into COLE! by getting him to stop throwing low sinkers and throw four-seamers up in the zone. Yes, but they also picked up Wade Miley, who, if you ignore yesterday, has been decent for them thanks to a sinker/cutter combination. They had Dallas Keuchel as their ace for a while before this year, and now they’ve got rookie Framber Valdez. Valdez throws pretty hard, and technically has a four-seamer, but the Astros are just fine if Valdez continues to use his weird sinker as his primary heater. He’s producing very high ground ball rates which is handy given the number of batters he walks. Those walks are killing his value right now, but he could be intriguing down the road. While his sinker has average to a bit below average spin, he’s got one of the highest spin-rate curveballs in the game, up ahead of Verlander/Cole/Morton/Glasnow/Rich Hill and those guys.It’s been a devastating out-pitch for him, but his control doesn’t allow him to get into out-pitch situations too often. That’ll be important for the M’s tonight.
You know who else isn’t sure? The Mariners. Today’s opener, Reggie McClain, is a sinker-dominant reliever, and his sinker is actually pretty similar to Valdez’s. Reggie’s is thrown at 94, so it’s faster than Framber’s (92-93), and it has more armside run. Their spin rates are 2171 for Valdez and 2169 for McClain, and they’ve got very similar arm slots. All in all, you won’t see too many more similar pitches. McClain’s slider has a lot of gyrospin so it doesn’t feature a ton of movement, and that’s why his strikeout numbers haven’t been that great this year in AAA/MLB, but he’s another guy that can get ground balls and thus hopefully avoid the dinger plague. New reliever Taylor Guilbeau has a hard sinker as well. What about Mike Leake? Yes, he’d been a sinkerballer, but had to stop throwing it as much, as it’s been one of the league’s worst pitches. But the org clearly isn’t going to ignore guys who can reliably get ground balls, not when you keep facing this damnable Astros offense 19 times a year.
1: Moore, SS
2: Smith, RF
3: Nola, C
4: Seager, 3B
5: Murphy, DH
6: Vogelbach, 1B
7: Lopes, LF
8: Long, 2B
9: Bishop, CF
SP: McClain/Milone
Game 141, Mariners at Astros – Staring Into the Void
Marco Gonzales vs. Wade Miley, 5:10pm
How did you like the Texas League playoff game? Made for a nice change from line-ups like, uh, the one the M’s are rolling out tonight, but of course even the AA game was a pitchers duel. The Travs pulled out a win late against Tulsa’s bullpen, and we all got to see how Jarred Kelenic works an at-bat. Root’s replayed it a few times, including this afternoon.
This is not a shock, given how good Houston is, but the M’s are 1-12 against the divisional bullies this season. They’ve lost at home, they’ve lost in Texas. They’ve lost extra-inning games and blowouts, and seven in a row to Houston overall. We kind of expect Gerrit Cole or Justin Verlander to dominate, but it just doesn’t seem to matter who they throw out there. I’ve mentioned it before, but there’s something especially exasperating about facing Wade Miley with the Astros. We saw this guy in Seattle, and we saw him after that in Baltimore. That should’ve been it; he had pitched his way out of the league. He was an ex-promising pitcher, soon to be an ex-pitcher entirely. And then he was back, pitching well for a playoff team and logging actual playoff innings in 2018. Now he’s pitching to an ERA in the low 3s despite mediocre K:BB ratios in the year of the home run. Do you remember how many HRs he allowed in Seattle and Baltimore?
How much of this is really due to him, though? Not all of it, not with a super-low BABIP that must have something to do with the great defense behind him. The Crawford Boxes look remarkably close to home plate, but Houston’s somehow a neutral-to-pitcher friendly park, even in this, the year of the juiced ball. But then again, there’s Wade Miley with really good exit velocities-against, including one of the lowest fly ball/line drive exit velocities of any starter. There’s Miley with that low BABIP for the second year in a row, despite playing on a different team in a different league. Both Miley and Gonzales have given up plenty of unearned runs, but they pull Miley’s RA/9 up from ‘amazing’ to merely ‘good.’ Marco’s RA/9 is again over 5, which perhaps shouldn’t be surprising for a player in the bottom half of qualified starters in terms of the hard-hit contact he allows. He challenges batters, and that’s tough to do in 2019. He has absolutely been harmed by the likes of Domingo Santana and Tim Beckham, and it makes it so hard to make heads or tails out of his season, and how we should see him for 2020 and 2021.
I guess I’m feeling a lot of that confusion about the M’s as a whole right now. It’s great to see Jake Fraley and Braden Bishop up with the team, and I know their cold starts don’t mean a whole lot, but given how challenging it is to make sense of AAA stat lines (thanks to the same juiced ball problem), I’d appreciate them demonstrating some aptitude against MLB pitching, just to settle my nerves. John Trupin’s got a great post at LL using a few different all-in-one batting stats to gauge how well hitters like Kelenic and Fraley did this year, and that helps. But with Crawford out following a really up-and-down second half, and with Fraley slumping…I guess I thought we’d know more about how 2020 would look for M’s fans at this point. Kelenic and Julio Rodgriguez blew expectations out of the water, and really are two of the best prospects in the game. John Sickels top 100 list currently has them at 14th and 18th, respectively. For the first time in a while, the M’s can envision a homegrown core. But it’s still a little ways away, and it would help a lot to figure out who’s going to be flanking that core, and who’ll be holding down the fort until the cavalry arrive. That’s why Crawford, Fraley, Justus Sheffield, Mitch Haniger, and Marco are so important, and why it’s so frustrating that we haven’t really seen them all healthy and performing at the same time.
1: Moore, SS
2: Gordon, 2B
3: Nola, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Murphy, C
6: Vogelbach, DH
7: Lopes, LF
8: Fraley, RF
9: Bishop, CF
SP: Gonzales
Wade freaking Miley, I mean really.
Texas League Playoffs: Arkansas vs. Tulsa
Ricardo Sanchez vs. Josiah Gray, 5:10pm – ROOT Sports, MiLB.tv, and streaming audio online.
With the M’s traveling, Root Sports will instead broadcast the M’s AA Texas League affiliate in Little Rock, Arkansas, who take on Dodgers affiliate Tulsa in the first round of the playoffs. Calling the game will be Brad Adam and M’s GM, Jerry Dipoto. The big league season hasn’t quite gone according to plan, but Dipoto gets an extended opportunity to sell the fan base on his rebuild by calling a game involving several of the M’s top prospects. The group is led, of course, by OF Jarred Kelenic, the newly-20 year old, who’s had a remarkable season across three levels. SP Justin Dunn won’t get this game, but was on local sports radio in Seattle around noon as part of the effort to drum up interest in a far-away minor league game.
Since Root stopped showing PCL broadcasts of the Portland Beavers (because the Beavers moved), it’s been hard to see minor league games on regular ol’ TV. MiLB.tv is still a niche product, with spotty coverage in the low minors and some camera work that may, uh, challenge viewers used to big league HD broadcasts. That’s somewhat surprising, given the growth in interest in prospects in general. A CBS-branded cable channel tried minor league game of the week broadcasts, rotating around to wherever some big prospects were playing, but that didn’t last. All of that to say, even if the M’s didn’t desperately want attention on Kelenic, Evan White, and company, I’d love to see someone try and broadcast more games like this when the schedule allows. I have MiLB.tv, but I’d much rather watch a real broadcast. And with an intriguing team like the Arkansas Travelers, you have the opportunity to showcase some future big leaguers.
Part of the trick is that you want to know who’ll be on the team, and in the minors, that’s often hard to do. The Travs big pitching and position player starts, Logan Gilbert and Kelenic, weren’t on the team two months ago. Justin Dunn was, but it wasn’t his turn in the rotation. Still, once Kelenic and C Cal Raleigh were promoted, a broadcast like this started to feel like quite an opportunity. Apparently the brain child of M’s marketing VP Kevin Martinez, this should be a fun broadcast.
Since it’s a playoff game, the competition’s pretty good, too. The Dodgers have been unreal at player development in recent years, and they’ll showcase that in this game. Just like the Travs, some of the big stars for the Drillers have only been in AA a short while. Today’s starter, 21-year old Josiah Gray, was acquired in December’s big Yasiel Puig deal, and has played in three levels this season, just like Kelenic. A right-hander, Gray was drafted by Cincinnati in the competitive bonus round in 2018, and has flown up the chain thanks to a fastball that touches the high 90s. He was a Division II college player, but opened a lot of eyes in the Cape Cod League in 2017. He’s got a slider/change-up as secondaries, and struck out 147 in 130 IP, just shy of 40 of those coming in AA. Another player in that same trade was SS Jeter Downs, also 21, and also a competitive balance round pick by the Reds, this time in 2017. Downs spent most of the year in high-A Rancho Cucamonga, where he hit 19 HRs and slashed .269/.354/.507. He’s always had plenty of loft in his swing, but has tapped into his power much more this year. He’s played just 12 games in Tulsa, but has 5 HRs in that span with a GB% under 20%. Wow. (He’s not the most heralded Tulsa SS of 2019, though. That’d be Gavin Lux, who started in AA, then went on to essentially break the PCL (.392/.478/.719) and force his way to Los Angeles.) Other tough ABs for the Drillers include C Conner Wong, who, like Downs, has 24 HRs across 2 levels, and Cuban 2B Omar Estevez.
Arkansas SP Ricardo Sanchez, 22, was DFA’d by Atlanta in the offseason, then traded to the M’s for well-traveled UTIL Cash Considerations. Sanchez is on the M’s 40-man, and spent the entire season in Arkanasas. He had a brilliant April, but has been a little shakier since then, finishing with an ERA of 4.44 in 146 IP. As you may know, Arkansas is a somewhat extreme pitcher’s park, so it may be harder for the sluggers to actually hit it out of Dickey-Stephens park.
1: Donnie Walton, SS
2: Jarred Kelenic, CF
3: Evan White, 1B
4: Cal Raleigh, C
5: Kyle Lewis, LF
6: Jordan Cowan, 2B
7: Dom Thompson-Williams, DH
8: Mike Ahmed, 3B
9: Luis Liberato, RF
SP: Ricardo Sanchez, LHP
Game 140, Mariners at Cubs
King Felix vs. Jon Lester, 5:05pm
Happy Felix Day to you all. Are Felix days weird to any of you? In that they involve our beloved King essentially auditioning to pitch somewhere else next year? Yeah? Me too. I
It’s a big pitching match-up for the Northwest, as the region’s most beloved hurler goes up against a native son. Felix is a changed pitcher this year; he’s gone away from his change-up in favor of his curveball, which he’s throwing more now than he ever has. The change had been his signature pitch for his entire career, and certainly since 2007. It’s produced the best results, but while it’s not exactly getting rocked, the curve has been gaining vis a vis the change, and with his sinker now a legitimate problem, it’s probably good to have a pitch that doesn’t mimic the sinker in movement and velocity. It’s worth remembering that as Felix’s fastball velocity has declined over the years, the change either stayed put or got even faster for a while. In 2007, he threw 98 with the fastball, and 88 with his change – a fairly normal gap between the two. But within a few years, he was sitting 95, and then 94 and 93 with the heater. But over those years, roughly 2009-2012, his change got slightly faster, until it sat at 90. This version of Felix was the best we saw, and he dominated by ignoring every bit of research about how you’re *supposed* to throw a change. He blazed his own path, and then saw guys like Zack Greinke follow. But in recent years, as his fastball sits at or below 90, he’s finally started to open up more of a gap in velocity; his change is now about 4.5 MPH slower than his sinker, down from about 3 MPH slower in 2016, and more akin to the separation he had way back in 2009, when he was still throwing 94-95.
Felix’s fastballs are getting pounded, as he’s given up 10 HRs on them (four-seam and sinker) this year in just 216 plate appearances. He tries to limit fastballs to lefties, as he’ll mix change-ups and curves, but even when they’re comparatively rare, they get blasted. He’s given up 5 HRs on fastballs to lefties in just over 111 *pitches*. Forget training, forget working hard on video study – what Felix needs is a redesigned fastball. He’s needed it now for many years, and I understand he’s been resistant to the M’s entreaties to change things. But I still think someone might get a serviceable starter next year if they can convince him to change that fastball’s shape by changing his armslot or its movement. This is no longer rocket science. He could try the Rangers approach and move on the rubber. He could try the Astros approach and develop a cutter instead. I don’t know what’s the best path forward, but for whatever reason, he never found that path here. Damn it.
I’d take another opportunity to blast the M’s for failing to find that path, but it’s hard to do so a day after Justus Sheffield’s best outing as a major leaguer. He looked like a different pitcher from the guy we saw facing the Blue Jays earlier this month. Since that game, the M’s have clearly decided to alter his pitch mix to be much less fastball-dominant. I think that makes a lot of sense given the…limitations of his fastball, but as we just talked about with Felix, adjusting the mix isn’t enough. Sheffield’s greatly improved his command/control of the pitch in recent weeks. Batters swung at 37% of his fastballs in his first two appearances this year. In the last two, that’s up to around 43%. The reason is that he’s cut his called-ball rate on the pitch by 10 percentage points. That means he’s able to get to his slider in good counts, and when he’s done that, batters haven’t fared well at all. His whiff rate on the pitch is trending way up, and batters are finding it difficult to put the slider in play at all. Before the Yankee game, I said the M’s needed to help him make adjustments, and to be frank, I didn’t think they could. Credit where it’s due: they absolutely have, and it’s turned Sheffield into an MLB-ready starter, something he pretty clearly wasn’t even 2-3 weeks ago.
Jon Lester is, like many pitchers, posting a career-high in HR/9. Righties in particular are doing some damage off of him, but he’s still an effective starter over all. Lester throws almost exactly as hard as Felix does, but has aged gracefully thanks to an interesting mix of three fastballs – a four-seamer, a sinker, and a cutter. He’s always thrown all three, but the balance was once tilted strongly in favor of the four-seam, which paired well with his curve. Now, though, he’s begun using the cutter most of all, and he’s throwing more curves and change-ups, essentially embracing his inner junkballer. Lester, like any lefty who’s stuck around as long as he has, minimizes his platoon splits, presumably through some deception. He’s not having as much success this year with his four-seam and sinker, but he makes up for it with his secondary offerings. This would be a good case study to look into for whichever team signs Felix in the off-season.
1: Smith, RF
2: Moore, SS
3: Nola, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Murphy, C
6: Court, LF
7: Gordon, 2B
8: Bishop, CF
9/SP: FELIX.
That line-up is not going to strike terror in the hearts of opposing pitchers, but hey, it’s September. The M’s recalled IF Shed Long and RP Zac Grotz today; no word on more call-ups following the end of the minor league season.
On that note, yesterday was the official end of the regular season across the minors.
The Rainiers lost to Las Vegas 3-2 despite a HR from Jaycob Brugman. Andrew Moore took the loss despite 5 2/3 IP in a tough place to pitch. Nabil Crismatt pitched 2 scoreless in relief with 6 Ks, which is pretty good. The Rainiers finished up the season at 61-78 and last in their division, but #1 in my heart. They had 41 players come up to the plate, including David Freitas who went on to win the PCL Batting title with San Antonio after just 6 PAs in Tacoma. They used 50 pitchers.
Arkansas is, of course, not done, as we’ll all get to see them in the Texas League playoffs this week, as it’ll be broadcast on Root Sports. They dropped their final game to the Amarillo Sod Poodles 6-5. Cal Raleigh hit his 7th HR with the team, and Jarred Kelenic hit his 6th, giving him 23 across three levels, and capping off a remarkable first full season as a professional. The Travelers finished 81-57, and they’ll take on the Tulsa Drillers beginning tomorrow evening. Ljay Newsome took the loss, but he raised his season strikeout total to 169 in 155 innings, while walking just 17. I talked before the season started that the M’s needed some org guys to develop into prospects, and we’ve seen it happen with guys like Reggie McClain. But Newsome’s transformation stands out, as he addressed his biggest weakness (missing bats) without sacrificing his best skill (avoiding walks). Great season.
Modesto lost to Visalia to finish up the year at 65-75. Their pitching staff set a new Cal League record for strikeouts, only to see Rancho Cucamonga beat it. They upped their strikeouts by 285 over last season, and, not coincidentally, dropped their runs-allowed by over 90. They were better at the plate, too, though that was a low bar, as the 2018 team posted a sub-.700 OPS. They hit for solid power, thanks largely to Cal Raleigh, but had the lowest OBP in the Cal League. A little more time for Julio Rodriguez would’ve likely changed that.
West Virginia blanked Greensboro 2-0 to finish at 69-70. It’s amazing to think the club opened the season with Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, and Logan Gilbert on the roster. Juan Then got his first win at the A ball level, and the teenager ends his season with an ERA just under 3 across a couple of levels. The Power struggled on the mound, giving up the most HRs in the Sally League and the second-most runs. They weren’t great shakes at the plate, either, but it’s a pitcher-friendly league altogether, and the team had wave after wave of players promoted and demoted through their clubhouse.
Everett beat Vancouver 3-1 to finish 37-39. As you’d expect from their record, they were middle-of-the-pack in team batting, though their offense did finish with the second-highest OBP. The pitching staff was a bit shakier, tying for the highest team ERA and giving up more HRs as a team than any other club…by a mile. They were 23 HRs ahead of second-place Vancouver, who only allowed 42 on the year.
Game 139, Mariners at Cubs
Justus Sheffield vs. Kyle Hendricks, 11:20am
Happy Labor Day to all of you.
The M’s head to Chicago for a series that still means something to the Cubs. The M’s split 4 in Texas where both teams were just trying to see some of their September call-ups and avoid injuries. Unfortunately, the M’s didn’t quite manage that, as SS JP Crawford injured his right hamstring on Thursday and/or Friday, and he’s been sent back to Seattle for further tests, which is never a good thing. You have to assume that Crawford’s 2019 is now over. Getting Braden Bishop back from that lacerated spleen was good to see, and the ex-Husky drew a bases-loaded walk in yesterday’s easy win, but Crawford’s growth is exponentially more important to the M’s in 2020 – 2021. Please get healthy JP, and please, M’s – just rest him up. We’ll be fine if he doesn’t come off the IL as soon as the 10-day period is over.
So, Justus Sheffield’s back for his first start since that intriguing/frustrating/encouraging outing against the Yankees. For the first time in his very brief MLB tenure, he looked like a pitcher who could be an effective starting pitcher. He used his slider to get whiffs against right-handed batters, while sneaking strikes looking with his fastball. This Cubs line-up is much less righty-dominant than the Yanks’ was, with Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, and Kyle Schwarber all hitting lefty. But it’s a line-up with a lot of power, and so it’s imperative that Sheffield avoid spots with the fastball that batters can elevate and drive. The HR that Mike Ford hit off of him in Seattle wasn’t in a terrible location, but he muscled it out of the yard. If there’s any saving grace, it’s that that ball probably would be an out in deep right in Chicago.
Kyle Hendricks is a remarkable soft-tossing righty who’s thrived in the age of the juiced ball. He generally uses just a sinker, a four-seam fastball and a change-up, none of which regularly exceed 88-89. While he’s given up a few HRs, he limits walks, and then a combination of a great defense and weak contact help him limit base hits. It’s the sort of thing that doesn’t *look* sustainable, but he’s been doing it his entire career, and is closing in on 1000 innings pitched.
1: Smith, RF
2: Fraley, CF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Murphy, C
5: Vogelbach, 1B
6: Moore, SS
7: Gordon, 2B
8: Bishop, LF
9/SP: Sheffield
I’d say playing Bishop in LF is a good way to reduce any value he could add to the club, but that’s a quibble. Frankly, Fraley needs these ABs and looks in CF more right now. The M’s need to figure out who their starting CF will be next year, and Bishop may be a 4th OF. The bigger question is what to do with Mallex Smith, but they’ve seen plenty of Smith, and precious little of Fraley, so c’mon Jake, show us something.
Game 136, Mariners at Rangers – Soft-Tossing Lefties and the Statistics that Love Them
Marco Gonzales vs. Kolby Allard, 5:10pm
After Felix’s solid if unspectacular start yesterday produced a decent road win, the M’s look to continue their run with another win in Texas today. Today, the M’s turn to their opening day starter, Marco Gonzales. After his last start, I wrote about how difficult it’s been to describe his season, as the advanced metrics are all over the map in terms of his value. Just yesterday, Craig Edwards wrote about Marco in a post crowning him the King of Soft-Tossing Lefties. Fangraphs’ version of WAR rates Marco very highly, as it omits the one big problem Marco’s had: he’s given up a ton of base hits.
Marco’s made 28 starts, and you can neatly divide his season into two halves. In the first, he allowed 89 hits and 54 runs in 77 1/3 IP, with 9 HRs allowed. He was fairly stingy (especially for 2019) with the long ball, but batters hit the ball hard and thus he always had men on base. Even with a fairly low walk rate, his walks+hits per inning pitched was 1.435. In the second half, he’s allowed 88 hits in 86 2/3 IP, with 8 HRs allowed and a WHIP of 1.246. A lot of this is BABIP related, and the replacement of Tim Beckham with JP Crawford at short, but it’s interesting that even in the “good” half, he’s allowed more hits than innings pitched. For decades, that would be normal, it wouldn’t merit a mention. But we’re now at a point where the entire league allows fewer hits than IP, and racks up more strikeouts than hits. Marco’s a throwback, and does neither. That doesn’t make him bad, I don’t think, but I fear it’s going to make him really streaky, a fact that seems like a fairly obvious thing to point out after his crazy year (April was awesome! May was awful!).
Is this what soft-tossing lefties do? Essentially create a bend but don’t break defense by allowing baserunners, but don’t let them score? Even on that scale, Marco’s strand rate is sub-par, because he can’t rely on strikeouts to help him out of tough spots. But more broadly than that, even soft-tossing lefties don’t have to pitch to contact. When he was at his peak in 2015, Dallas Keuchel had an above-average K rate, and had more IP than hits-allowed. He did that several times, before reverting to a more Marco-like approach in 2018 and now in 2019. There’s no doubt that Gonzales’ defense hasn’t done him many favors this year, but it’s also clear that Ryan Yarbrough’s remarkable 2019 isn’t due solely to his defense in Tampa. Some soft-tossers figure out how to reliably generate weaker contact or to miss bats (or both). Marco hasn’t quite done that yet, but he certainly could.
At one point, it looked like Marco Gonzales’ pathway out of soft-tossing purgatory was just to start throwing harder. When he was acquired, he really did have noticeably higher velocity than he’d shown with the Cardinals. He averaged over 92 MPH in 2017, for example, and so we thought he might matriculate at hard-throwing lefty graduate school. But he’s given all of those gains away, one of those weird things that happen to pitchers from time to time.
Today’s opponent, Kolby Allard, knows all about that. A first-rounder for the Braves out of a Southern California HS, Allard showed solid velocity in the 92-93 range, and paired with great command, he seemed like a good bet to rise through the system quickly. He *did* rise quickly, but at some point, that plus velocity got left behind. When he made his MLB debut with Atlanta he averaged just under 90 MPH with his four-seam fastball, and got annihilated. He didn’t show a ton of life on the pitch in the minors this year, and thus he was a great change-of-scenery pick-up by the Rangers at the break. At the time, I wondered if Texas was the right organization to unlock Allard’s potential given their struggles with once-heralded prospects like Ariel Jurado and Yohander Mendez. It’s very early yet, and despite a great FIP, he’s still nothing special given his actual runs-allowed. Buuuut, there are signs he’s doing things differently. First, he’s taking the Marco-in-2017 approach of throwing a lot harder. He’s added a full 2+ MPH to his four-seamer, and is up over 92 on average. Second, he’s done the same thing Lance Lynn did upon moving to Texas, and that’s to shift his position on the rubber, moving out towards the edge a bit more. He’s got 23 Ks in his first 21 1/3 in Arlington, which, despite the tiny sample, is a lot more than the projection systems or my personal opinion would’ve predicted. Like Marco, Allard also throws a change-up and curve, though he lacks Marco’s cut fastball. [Edit: Uhhh, he totally has a cut fastball. He didn’t in Atlanta, but picked one up somewhere this year, whether in AAA in the Braves org or in the Rangers org.]
1: Smith, RF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Nola, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Murphy, C
6: Vogelbach, DH
7: Lopes, LF
8: Fraley, CF
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: Gonzales
Game 135, Mariners at Rangers
King Felix vs. Lance Lynn, 5:10pm
Happy Felix Day!
This is the first one that’s felt sort of happy as opposed to elegiac or funereal, so that’s pretty cool. Imagine last year at this time if someone said that in late August of 2019, Felix will face off against Lance Lynn and both teams would be well out of the race. I can imagine the game seeming like the biggest waste of time, or a potential slugfest. It still may BE a slugfest, but after Felix’s solid performance against Toronto and Lance Lynn’s out of nowhere career year, this game turned out to be pretty interesting.
Lance Lynn signed a fairly cheap 3-year deal with arriving-earlier-than-expected Minnesota Twins before the 2018 season. Jake Odorizzi did the same, and it seemed like the Twins wanted some veteran leaders around their very young position player core. It didn’t go well. Odorizzi scuffled, and Lynn had his worst year ever. He’d never posted an ERA over 4 in his tenure with St. Louis, but in 100+ IP for Minnesota, his ERA was over 5, and his FIP was in the high 4s. A late season trade to Texas saw him improve, especially with bases on balls. He’d never been a control pitcher, but he couldn’t find the plate in the twin cities, but immediately could upon leaving. That’s carried over to 2019, where he’s setting a career high in strikeout rate and a career low in walk rate. With the exception of 2017, Lynn had always been rather stingy with home runs, and even THAT’s continued here in the year of the home run. It’s all made for a very unlikely 6-7 WAR season at age 32.
Felix is just a tad older at 33, and while I don’t think a 6-7 WAR season is in his future, it just goes to show that trends aren’t destiny. A year ago, it looked like Lynn was going to pitch himself out of the game in 2019. Now, he’s leading MLB in fWAR. So much of pitching is coaching and altering a game plan. Felix may have been resistant to that in the past, but a part of it may just be due to the deterioration of his relationship with the M’s. He’ll sign some small FA deal or maybe even a minor league deal, which would be quite a blow to his ego. But I would not be too surprised to see Felix have a perfectly decent season again somewhere. A lot’s made out of his declining velocity, but Lynn’s declined for a long time before making a U turn recently. What he needs is a bit more deception.
The one big thing the Rangers did immediately upon acquiring Lynn was to change his position on the rubber. He’d been releasing the ball around 2.5′ towards the 3B bag, and the Rangers immediately had him shift that to 3.5′. I’m not sure why that would have such a big impact, but it seems to be associated with a huge change in his results and peripherals.
Spot the point at which Lynn was traded!
1: Smith, RF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Nola, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Narvaez, C
6: Vogelbach, DH
7: Fraley, CF
8: Moore, LF
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: El Cartelua
Julio Rodriguez cannot be stopped. He went 5-5 last night for Modesto, bringing his high-A line to a robust .587/.620/.891 in 50 PAs. He remains 18.
Game 134, Yankees at Mariners – Trade Showdown
Justus Sheffield vs. James Paxton, 1:10pm
It just had to happen, didn’t it? James Paxton returning to Seattle to face the big return the M’s got when they traded him to New York, Justus Sheffield. Like a few more trades between these two clubs, the immediate returns haven’t quite lived up to expectations on both sides. A rise in home runs and walks have pushed Paxton’s FIP over 4, and as usual, his ERA’s a touch higher. He’s getting strikeouts, and he’s talented enough to shut down even great line-ups on the right day, but there’ve been quite a few off days for him. He’s made a short stop on the IL, but health doesn’t seem to be his big problem. To the extent that any issue he has is “big” it’s mostly BABIP. With the M’s, he had real problems with men on base, pitching way, way worse if anyone was on each year from 2015-2018. That hasn’t been the issue in 2019; rather, his nobody-on performance has just dropped to match his struggles with men on. I’m not sure if he’s challenging hitters to an unhealthy degree, or if it really is just BABIP luck. Whatever the cause, it reminds me of 2016, the first year Paxton became PAXTON. He’s dropped his arm angle slightly, and he has more horizontal movement on his cutter, which has had worse results, but I think everything starts with his fastball.
The same is true for Justus Sheffield, of course. His slider could be an interesting pitch, and it kind of reminds me of Sean Manaea’s, but it’s kind of irrelevant if he can’t figure out how his fastball can play effectively at this level. Part of that is command; a big reason it’s not successful yet is that he’s throwing too many balls with it. But beyond that, it SHOULD be an effective pitch within the zone given his angle and velocity. I think he’s always going to have some issues with right-handed batters, but he’s got to learn to fight them to a draw. It hasn’t happened in his microscopic big league sample, but even the minor league track record shows it’s a lingering issue. It doesn’t need to be. I’m pretty sure deception can be taught, and I think the M’s need to work on that now. Guys who would kill to have Sheffield’s raw stuff – Ryan Yarbrough for one – have similar arm angles and are having success at the MLB level. It’s not exactly common, but then, neither are lefties working 94-95 from the left side with some sink.
I keep saying it, but this is a huge test for Sheffield, and it’s going to be great to watch how he attacks a line-up with righties like Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, and Gary Sanchez. We’ve seen some interesting signs from Yusei Kikuchi, although less of them last night, and now we need to see some adjustments from Sheff. The largest share of the burden here falls on the coaches. You can’t ask a young starter to just figure it out on his own. This is mostly a test of the M’s ability to make actionable adjustments on the fly.
1: Lopes, LF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Nola, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Murphy, C
6: Vogelbach, DH
7: Moore, RF
8: Gordon, 2B
9: Broxton, CF
SP: Sheffield
Keon Broxton starts in CF as he appeals his 2-game suspension. Jake Fraley sits against a tough lefty, with righties Lopes/Moore in the OF alongside the righty Broxton.
The big news in the minors is that the Arkansas Travelers’ playoff game on Sept. 4th will be broadcast live on Root Sports in the Seattle area, live, at 5pm. With Brad Adam and Jerry Dipoto on the call, apparently. As I mentioned yesterday, the Travs were in fine form as Ian McKinney k’d 10 in 5 outstanding innings in Arkansas’ 3-2 win. Ljay Newsome gets the start for Arkansas today against Astros top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley.
Modesto beat Stockton 4-3 with two late runs. Down 3-2 in the 8th, Keegan McGovern homered off of one-time M’s prospect Trey Cochran-Gill, and then the Nuts got another run off of him in the 9th to win it. The sinkerballing Cochran-Gill was a part of the M’s 2014 draft class that included Ryan Yarbrough, and was shipped to Oakland for Evan Scribner.
Tacoma snapped a losing streak thanks to a great start from Sean Nolin, beating Fresno 4-1. Andrew Moore starts for the R’s tonight.
West Virginia are playing 2 after getting rained out yesterday.
Vancouver’s Damon Casetta-Stubbs starts for Everett tonight against Spokane.
Game 133, Yankees at Mariners – Kikuchi vs. Tanaka
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Masahiro Tanaka, 7:10pm
After a fairly hard-fought loss last night, the M’s face off against the Yankees in a game pitting two of the bigger NPB stars against each other. Sure, sure: Shohei Ohtani’s the bigger name, but it at the time he was posted, Tanaka had Daisuke Matsuzaka-like hype. He’s settled in as an above-average #3, but he was pretty dominant in his first year, but just hasn’t been *quite* the same since an elbow injury scare in 2014. Part of that is velocity related, but not a ton: he was 93+, and now he’s more 91-92, but a larger part is his once super-human splitter becoming more and more mortal.
Batters didn’t hit above .200 on his splitter until *last year*. This year, they’re hitting .281 and have 8 HRs, that’s the second-most he’s given up on the pitch in his career, and given the new baseball, he’s probably going to break that record. The pitch is looking more like a regular change-up, with more horizontal movement and a bit less drop. As his four-seam fastball’s ride decreases, the gap between it and the splitter drops, and batters seem to like the resulting mishmash. Of course, the real problem in his arsenal is that fastball, which batters are really hitting hard now. He’s responded by throwing ever fewer of them, replacing the fastballs with sliders, which seems to be the general Yankee advice. That pitch has proven to be a life-saver for him, particularly against righties.
Yusei Kikuchi is making his first start since his remarkable complete game shutout of the Jays. It’s another line-up filled with tough hitters, but it’s what Kikuchi does that matters much more than who he’s facing. He’s been remarkably hittable, but he’s so much better than he’s shown. The M’s changed his delivery slightly, and that seems to have made a big impact. The team says his pitches have more life after the changes, but the velo’s down a tiny bit. His vertical movement has dropped in recent games, but it doesn’t quite coincide with the mechanical changes. That drop in vertical movement’s coincided with a tiny bit more horizontal movement, likely the result of a slight drop in arm slot. More noticeable, and something to watch tonight, is how he’s spotting his fastball and breaking balls. He seems to be using his fastball higher than he did much of the year, but it’s still a bit early and the changes a bit subtle to pinpoint it as a real driver of his improvement. He’s using a few more sliders now as well, but that can’t be the sole reason for his improvement, given his struggles with the pitch. It seems like the new delivery helps mask whatever pitch he throws, and I hope he gets more comfortable with it in September. That Jays game has to give him a much-needed confidence boost.
Whatever happens, it’s still been great to see his general improvement late in the year. The 2020 season may be fairly bleak as well, and we’re going to need something good to watch. JP Crawford could be one of those things, and I *hope* Justus Sheffield will be, but Yusei Kikuchi really should be. Jake Fraley, too. Anytime you’re ready to go on a hot streak, that’d be great (he’s got the night off tonight).
1: Smith, CF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Narvaez, DH
4: Seager, 3B
5: Murphy, C
6: Vogelbach, 1B
7: Lopes, LF
8: Gordon, 2B
9: Moore, RF
SP: Kikuchi
Justin Dunn overwhelmed Corpus Christi last night in 4 perfect IP (he struck out 8 Hooks), meaning he’s probably due up in Seattle on September 1st. Ian McKinney is trying to match him now, with 5 shutout innings against Corpus Christi with 10 Ks and no walks.
Visalia walked off Modesto in extras, and Fresno dominated Tacoma 9-3 as Dan Altavilla and Brian Ellington had bullpen outings to forget. Today, Sean Nolin starts for Tacoma tonight, and Modesto kicks off a series with Stockton. The Arizona League Mariners ended their season last night; they finished 22-34.
Game 132, Yankees at Mariners
Matt Wisler/Tommy Milone vs. JA Happ, 7:10pm
Ahhh, yesterday’s win felt great. It’s nice that even in a lost season, the team’s capable of making you pump your fist or high five strangers. Walking around downtown Seattle yesterday, it’s hard to overstate just how visible the Canadian invasion of the city and T-Mobile is. People in Jays uniforms and shirts were *everywhere* and they’re heading home with a series loss. This weird annual tradition must be great for a lot of people, from Seattle area hoteliers to the Jays themselves. It has to be odd for the M’s players, and I could see it having some very small impact on their play. But for the ultra-competitive Marco Gonzales, I think it may have backfired. Gonzo looked motivated and pitched one of his best games in an M’s uniform yesterday.
One of the recurring themes on the old blog this year has been what to make of Marco Gonzales. This is where we typically dig in to some statistics or trends to help put his performance in context, but this year, that’s just adding to the confusion. What do I mean? By FIP, which looks only at strikeouts/walks/home runs, Marco’s had a great season – he’s essentially followed up on last year’s breakout by surpassing last year’s WAR total, standing at 3.5 fWAR today. Baseball Reference’s WAR formula starts with RA/9, and attempts to correct for park and team defense. Those last two adjustments are pretty important, and they pull Marco up to 1.9 WAR, or essentially right at league average. Baseball Prospectus’ DRA formula is based on linear weights, or counting up all of the hits/walks/outs etc. a pitcher’s given up, and then adjusting and regressing for everything from park to umpire to batter to weather. When they do all of THAT, Marco comes out at a DRA of 6.05, good for a WAR(P) of *negative* 0.4. Three big WAR formulations, and we’ve got a replacement-level scrub, a league-average hurler, and an all-star.
We can just forget all about this WAR stuff, right? What about plain-old ERA? By that measure, Marco’s at 4.17. But if we count unearned runs and measure his RA/9, it’s nearly 5, at 4.94. However you plan to tackle a question like, “How good has Marco Gonzales been this year?” you’re confronted with some challenges like what to include and what to exclude. FIP largely excludes balls in play, under the rightish but not 100% accurate idea that pitchers don’t have a lot of control over how often balls in play are converted into outs. RA/9 WAR like BBREF’s includes everything, from unearned runs to bad sequencing luck. There’s no real right or wrong answer, and in 99% of the cases, they tend to arrive at the same basic answer. But not so with Marco.
This isn’t the first time this has happened, and it won’t be the last. A few years ago, the great Sam Miller had an article at ESPN talking about how the three systems were hopelessly split on Arizona’s Robbie Ray, with DRA loving him, RA/9 hating him, with FIP somewhere in the middle.* But even in that case, everyone agreed he’d had SOME positive value. It was just an argument over how much. Here, we can’t even agree on that. What’s going on? While Marco doesn’t have a great K:BB ratio, he’s been stingy with home runs, and since they’re weighted so heavily in FIP, he comes out looking quite good. Essentially, Marco gives up a heck of a lot of base hits, but hasn’t allowed a ton of runs – and those runs that HAVE scored on him have been charged as unearned more frequently than normal. All of those base hits are getting added up in DRA, and they push his total-average-against or wOBA-against higher. That accounts for a bunch of his poor DRA, but certainly not all of it.
Marco’s TAv-against is .262, ranking 56th out of 79 qualified pitchers (#79 is Yusei Kikuchi). It’s that context stuff that’s dragging him down; DRA expects, given the kind of batters he’s seen and the places he’s pitched that just about anyone could stumble into a TAv-against of .262. Is that realistic? I don’t really know, but I looked at 20 pitchers (including Marco) with similar TAv figures, ranging from .255 to .267. As a whole, the group has an ERA of 4.40, a FIP of 4.33, and a DRA of 4.83. Because we’re only looking at *qualified* pitchers, there’s a pretty big survivorship bias, as all of these pitchers have been successful enough to get a lot of starts (it’s a low bar for some teams, but it’s a bar). Hence, I’m not too shocked to see a lower ERA, just like I’m not surprised to see a low FIP. Beyond that, it’s a wildly disparate group, from strikeout maven Matthew Boyd of Detroit hanging out with strikeout-allergic Brett Anderson. Robbie Ray’s in the group, as is Homer Bailey and Dylan Bundy. Their RA/9s range from 4.29 to 5.92, and their DRAs range from 3.4 all the way up to 6.8. I’d love to know more about what’s dragging Marco and Ivan Nova down (and pushing Joe Musgrove up), but the average RA/9 in this group is 4.84, essentially dead on the average DRA.
Today, the M’s face another pitcher that DRA hates, ex-Mariner JA Happ. Happ’s creeping up on negative 2 WAR by BP’s formulation, the result of a DRA over 7. For the record, FIP isn’t terribly impressed either, giving him a 5.69, good for 0.7 fWAR. The problem here is home runs, as Happ’s allowing well over 2 per 9. His 31 HRs allowed tie him for 4th-most in the game along with Yusei Kikuchi, and just three back of the leader, Mike Leake (it’s been a bad year for M’s pitchers). The bulk of the damage has come against his four-seam fastball. In his career, he’s given up a .413 SLG%-against on the pitch, but this year, it’s way up to .627, thanks to 23 HRs-allowed on that one single pitch. The pitch has had strongly positive pitch-type run values for several years, but they’ve all tipped negative this year. His velocity’s down, I suppose, compared to his great years in Toronto, but by less than 1 MPH. The pitch is a tad straighter, but there’s no obvious red flag in movement or velo. His park plays a role, I’m sure, and then there’s the baseball, but it’s noticeable that he wasn’t destroyed in 2017, the last time the league played with a new, different, batter-friendly ball. I’m a bit surprised the Yankees – a club that eschewed four-seamers in favor of breaking balls in recent years – hasn’t had him rein in his four-seam usage. As you’d expect, righties are doing the most damage because righties see more four-seamers. He throws more sinkers to lefties, and thus has extreme platoon batted-ball splits – lefties hit the ball on the ground (but if they get it in the air, it’s going for a dinger), while righties hit a lot of fly balls. This just isn’t the kind of year where you can give up a ton of fly balls and succeed.
1: Lopes, LF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Nola, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Murphy, DH
6: Narvaez, C
7: Fraley, CF
8: Moore, 2B
9: Broxton, RF
SP: Wisler/Milone
Tacoma’s home schedule is over. They dropped their final game 2-0 to Las Vegas on a 2R-HR by ex-A’s OF Nick Martini. I say “ex-As” because he was DFA’d today to make room for Seth Brown, who was called up. Wonder if Jerry Dipoto’s already asking about acquiring him…
Tacoma’s in Fresno tonight, but the big prospect interest in the system is Justin Dunn starting for Arkansas against Corpus Christi.
* The debate’s kind of moot now, as DRA was reformulated subsequent to the article, and rescinded all of the praise it had heaped upon Mr. Ray, changing his 2.95 DRA to 4.83.